MAPPING THE EFFECT OF FOOD PRICES, PRODUCTIVITY AND POVERTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT DOMAINS OF NIGERIA

Abstract

Poverty remains the major obstacle to economic emancipation and achievement of development agenda in Nigeria. Worse still, rising food prices pose a major threat to feeding the teeming population in Nigeria. Declining food production, high population growth, and negative food trade balance combine to worsen the food and poverty situations in Nigeria. We stand on the premise that surging and volatile food prices could have a hardest hit on those who could not afford it – the poor. This study used spatial data on food prices and poverty levels. We mapped food prices and poverty levels by development domains in Nigeria. We found that food price has significant effect on poverty levels in the identified development domains. The food price analysis showed high and rising food prices with high food price instability and price spread. The high food price had effect on purchasing power and poverty levels of Nigerians. The food price surge also had a direct impact on overall inflation because the weight of food in the consumption basket is high. Food inflation ranges over 60 percent, and food inflation has reached double digits. The poverty change analysis revealed that some States witnessed improvement in poverty reduction, while others had their poverty situation worsened. The GIS mapping and overlay of food prices and poverty levels by development domains showed critical policy intervention areas in Nigeria. Policy recommendations that are consistent with food price stabilization and poverty reduction strategies were canvassed. There is need for more effective policy to help the poor and farmers to respond to the opportunity posed by the rising demand for food.