Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peacebuilding in International Relations Idowu Johnson UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peacebuilding in International Relations Idowu Johnson UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY © Idowu Johnson All rights reserved. No part o f this publication can be reproduced, copied, recorded or printed by anybody without the prior permission o f the publisher. First Published, 2015 By GRATIA ASSOCIATE INTERNATIONAL 15, Oshinubi Street, Ijebu-Ode, Ogun State, Nigeria. (234) 805-513-6283 ISBN: 978-978-533-008-2-2 Printed and bound in Nigeria by: PILLAR PRESS Ijebu-Ode, Nigeria, 08134385631 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy Conflict}. Bargaining ami Peace Building in International Relations D edication This book is dedicated to all lovers of peace UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson F o rew o rd Contemporary international relations, especially the political dimension of it, gets more and more complex with each passing day. Things have been made more complicated by the emergence of criminal and crude terrorism alongside attitude of governments that pursue their national interests and foreign policy while mechanically ignoring their destructive social effects on individuals, civilisation, social values and humanity. Conflict scenario spaces are getting more occupied by non­ state actors who have little or no respect for morality, due process, and international law including international humanitarian law. These actors hardly come to the peace table, and even when they do and sign ceasefire or peace agreements, hardly respect such agreements. Some diplomats, peace practitioners and, most especially students of peace and conflict, are finding it difficult to follow the trends of events, and understand why some of these things are so. Many discover have discovered that they need new knowledge, skills and expertise to follow, discuss and analyse certain events in the international system. This book, dutifully written by Dr Idowu Johnson offers the reader a new window of outlook to observe, understand, and study contemporary events, especially in the areas of security, terrorism, conflict resolution, peacebuilding, bargaining, and diplomacy. It is a necessary companion for every student, scholar, diplomat, researcher and politician operating in the field of international relations as it is very rich in relevant intellectual menu. Bon apetit. Professor UJt5(J JNwohse Head, Department of Political Science University of Ibadan, Ibadan. NIGERIA. IV UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomat Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Preface The focus of this book is to analyse diplomacy, conflicts, bargaining and peace-building within the context of international relations. The idea of writing this book was conceived during a prolonged ASUU strike in August 2013. Although, I have been teaching conflict and bargaining in International Relations for five years at the undergraduate level, the inability of students to lay their hands on local materials that deal with conflict, bargaining and peace-building have adversely affected students’ performance. This book is basically expected to serve university students who scarcely get new textbooks to read in this era of economic depression in the country. In design, it covers major topics in international relations; through such concepts as conflicts, arms control, diplomacy, wars, collective security, negotiation, game theory, conflict resolution and peacebuilding. But its usefulness and relevance transcend international relations. Students of sociology, law, psychology, philosophy, economics as well as peace and conflict studies will find the book useful. Equally to benefit from the book are security experts, conflict and peace practitioners in tandem with policymakers. There is no doubt that the subject matter of International Relations is very broad. It is my hope that this book will fill the vacuum of scarce materials in specific areas of the subject matter. Besides, in this era of incessant conflicts at the global level, there is the need for students and policymakers to understand conflicts within the context of international politics and how they can be resolved and managed. Idowu Johnson, PhD. November, 2014 v UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson Acknowledgem ents I will like to thank Professor OBC Nwolise who inspired me to write this book. His suggestions on the title of the book are very commendable. I am particularly appreciative of the pains he took to read through the book, offer useful advice and graciously accepting to write the foreword. I also appreciate Dr E. Remi Aiyede for being instrumental to the idea of transforming the course materials used for teaching into a book form. Dr Dhikiru Adewale Yagboyaju has been very supportive as usual of him in all my academic engagements. I thank him for his scholarly diligence. I am sincerely grateful to all my colleagues, friends, students, family and well wishers, too many to mention here, for the encouragement in writing the book. Any error or omission found in this book is absolutely my own responsibility. vi UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Contents Page D edication •• •• •• •• ii Forew ord .. .. •• •• 111 Preface.. .. .. •• •• •• iy Acknowledgements .. .. .. .. v Table o f Contents .. .. .. .. •* vi Introduction .. .. .. .. .. vii Chapter One Conceptual and Theoretical Analysis o f Conflict .. 1 Chapter Two Systematic Approaches to Understanding National and International Conflicts .. .. .. .. 21 Chapter Three Game, Bargaining Theory and Decision-making Theory .. .. .. .. .. 49 Chapter Four Arms Race and Arms Control.. .. .. .. 68 Chapter Five Security Dilemma and International Cooperation .. 84 Chapter Six D iplom acy and Negotiation .. .. .. .. 100 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY M own Johnson Chapter Seven Powers and Power Transition in International Relations .. .. •• •• 113 Chapter Eight Strategies, Tactics and Conflict Resolution or Management .. .. .. .. .. 120 Chapter Nine Terrorism .. .. .. .. .. 140 Chapter Ten Threats to International Peace and Security .. .. 158 Chapter Eleven Peace-building in International Relations .. 175 Chapter Twelve Conclusion .. .. .. .. .. 187 Bibliography .. .. .. .. .. 192 Index .. .. ........................ 194 VIII UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Budding in International Relations Introduction Conflict has remained a permanent feature in societies. Conflict has also been regarded as a social phenomenon. It is the means to change, the means by which social values of welfare, security, justice and opportunities for personal development can be achieved. Even contemporary international relations have been a series of competitive acts, with loose rules, moving towards ill-determined goals over a period of times. The rate of conflict in modem societies is attributed to certain scientific and technological revolutions which have been taking place for over a century or more. We must not lose sight of the fact that there is conflict between the privileged and the underprivileged, managers and the managed, and between proponents of different ideological values. It is instructive to note that the world society is a system of states competing with one another in a bid to grab what belongs to all. This intense competition among states results in conflict. In the same vein, states pursue their national interests in line with their foreign policy agenda. Thus, if foreign policy is the action of one state towards another, then diplomacy is the tool for achieving those objectives. Diplomacy’s main purpose is to enable states to secure the objectives of their foreign policies without resorting to force, propaganda, or law. It follows that diplomacy consists of communication between officials designed to promote foreign policy either by formal agreement or tacit adjustment. Together with the balance of power, which it both reinforces and reflects, diplomacy is the most important institution of the society of states. In international relations, conflict regularly occurs when actors interact and disputes arise over incompatible interests. IX UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY JdoV'U Johnson Besides, a more humane, more legalistic and more regulated means o f conducting wars has evolved through international relations. A nation at war is in the court of international opinion. Its conduct is monitored and it is made to operate within defined norms. International relations is therefore a field of study that is not only concerned with the interrelationship of state actors and non-state actors in the international system but also with their foreign policy strategies, attitudes towards collective security, peace and justice. It strives to minimise conflicts and, where conflicts are inevitable, seeks ways of managing them. In and of itself, conflict, (like politics - the exercise of influence) is not necessarily threatening, because war and conflict are different. Conflict may be seen as inevitable and occurs when two parties perceive differences between themselves and seek to resolve those differences to their mutual satisfaction. Some conflicts result whenever people interact and may be generated by religious, ideological, ethnic, economic, political or territorial issues; therefore, they should not be regarded as abnormal. Neither should conflict be regarded as necessarily destructive. War can promote social solidarity, creative thinking, learning and communication - all factors critical to the resolution of disputes and the cultivation of cooperation. The questions that come to mind for students of international relations include: Why do states fight costly war in international relations? Why do peaceful negotiations fail? How does deterrence work? Why do states get into costly arms races? How does domestic politics shape international conflict? In answering these questions, this book will provide students, security experts and public analysts with key ideas in theoretical framework of diplomacy, conflicts, bargaining and peace-building in internal relations. The book reviews and discusses x UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY D,,n/pn v. Conflu ; z / mi md Peace Building in Internationa! Relations relevant scholarly literature on several substantive topics including conceptual issues relating to analysis of conflict; the origin, nature, causes, dynamics and theories of conflict, nuclear and conventional deterrence, arms races and arms control, and the core elements of the concept of diplomacy negotiation and bargaining at the national and international levels. By focusing on bargaining theory, the book furnishes with students conceptual tools to analyse empirical case studies relating to negotiation of peace agreements, end of ethnic conflicts, promotion of multilateral trade agreements and establishment of global environmental regimes. Through the use of case study methods, students will be familiar with bargaining theory in understanding patterns of international conflict and their resolution. More importantly, the book will expatiate on long-term preventive pre-hostility strategies for measures to remove the causes of conflict and strengthen structural stability in a country against threats to the peace-building in international relations. XI UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter One Conceptual and Theoretical Analysis of Conflict This topic will focus on different definitions of conflict. The basic theme of this chapter is that conflict means different things to different people, including scholars and practitioners of conflict. Rather than present all definitions, this chapter will examine the most relevant of the definitions in the context of national and international politics. Conflict is present everywhere. Conflict is the means to change; it is the means by which our social value of welfare, security, justice and opportunities for personal development can be achieved. People are involved in conflict in all spheres of life, at different places and different times. The substance of international politics is conflict and its adjustment among groups of people who acknowledge no common supreme authority. The evident manifestation of the concept of conflict in various forms and dimensions makes it problematic to arrive at a universal conclusion. In addition, the apparent multidisciplinary occurrence of conflict in the behavioural sciences has further heightened the problem of its definition. What precisely is conflict? The term conflict usually refers to a condition in which one identifiable group of human beings (whether tribal, ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious, socio­ economic, political or other) is engaged in conscious opposition to one or more others because these groups are pursuing what are or appear to be incompatible goals. Lewis Coser defines conflict as a: UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson struggle over values and claims to scarce status, power, and resources in which the aims of the opponents are to neutralize, injure or eliminate their rivals. Essentially, conflict is an interaction involving humans; it does not include the struggle of individuals against their physical environment. Therefore, conflict implies more than mere competition. For instance, people may compete for something that is in shortage without being fully aware of their competitors’ existence, or without seeking to prevent the competitors from achieving their objective. In this sense, competition degenerates into conflict when the parties try to enhance their own position by reducing that of others, attempt to prevent others from gaining their own ends, and strive to put their competitors out of business or even destroy them. Conflict also refers to a state of disagreement between two or more parties over interests, ideals or ideas. We define conflict as a disagreement through which the parties involved perceive a threat to their needs, interests or concerns. Within this simple definition, there several important understandings emerge; i) Disagreement: Generally, we are aware there are differences in the positions of the parties involved in conflict. But true disagreement may be different from the perceived disagreement. In fact, conflict tends to be accompanied by significant levels of misunderstanding that exaggerate the perceived disagreement. 2 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relation < ii) Parties involved: There are often disparities in the observer’s sense of those involved in the conflict. Sometimes, people are surprised to learn they are a party to a conflict while being shocked at other times to learn that they are not included in the disagreement. On many occasions, people who are seen as part of the social system (e.g. work team, family, and company) are influenced to participate in dispute, whether or not they would personally define the situation in that way. In the above example, people readily take sides based upon current perceptions of the issues, past issues and relationships as well as roles within the organisation, and other factors. The parties involved can become a difficult concept to define. iii) Perceived Threat: People respond to perceived threat rather than the real threat facing them. Thus, while perception doesn’t become reality per se, people’s behaviours, feelings and ongoing responses become modified by that evolving sense of the threat they confront. iv) Needs, Interests or Concern: There is a tendency to narrowly define the problem as one of substance, task, and near-term viability. Simply put, there are always procedural and psychological needs to be addressed within the conflict, in addition to the substantive needs that are generally presented. From the points presented above, we can now discuss that conflicts occur when affected parties perceive that, as a consequence of a disagreement, there is a threat to their needs, 3 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson interests or concerns. Although conflict is a normal part of organisational life, providing numerous opportunities for growth through improved understanding and insight, there is a tendency to view conflict as a negative experience caused by abnormally difficult circumstances. Conflict may be violent or non-violent (i.e. in terms of physical force), dominant or recessive, controllable or uncontrollable, and resolvable or insoluble under various sets of circumstances. On the other hand, conflict is distinct from tensions, insofar as tensions usually imply latent hostility, fear, suspicion, perceived divergence of interests, and perhaps the desire to dominate or gain revenge. However, tensions do not necessarily extend beyond attitudes and perceptions to encompass actual overt opposition and mutual efforts to prevent taking advantage of one another. It is important to note that tension often precedes and always accompanies the outbreak of conflict, but it is not the same as conflict, and it is not always incompatible with cooperation. The causes of tension, however, are probably related to the causes of conflict. Moreover, if tensions become powerful enough, they themselves may become contributory to, or preliminary causes of, the occurrence of conflict, insofar as they affect the decision­ making process. More important, there is no precise definition of conflict. However, in order for easy understanding of the concept, Table 1 below is very useful. Gregg Walker developed this table to provide a sampling of various scholarly definitions of conflict. 4 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Table 1: Definitions of Conflict: An A cadem ic Sam ple Author(s) Definition Key Terms 1 Coser Social conflict is a struggle Struggle, opposition, 1956 between opponents over scarcity. values and claims to scare status, power and resources. Schelling Conflicts that are strategic Strategy, bargaining, 1960 are essentially bargaining dependence. situations in which the ability of one participant to gain his ends is dependent on the choices or decisions that the other participant ■ will make. Deutsch A conflict exists whenever Incompatibility, 1973 incompatible activities interference, occur... one party is effectiveness. interfering, disrupting, obstructing, or in some other ways making another party’s actions less effective. Wall Conflict is a process in Goals, interdependence, 1985 which two or more parties perceptions. attempt to frustrate the other’s goal attainment; the factors underlying conflict are threefold: interdependence, differences 5 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson 1 in goals, and differences in perceptions. Pruitt and Conflict means perceived Interests, aspirations, Rubin divergence of interest, or a beliefs. 1986 belief that the parties’ current aspirations cannot be achieved simultaneously. I Conrad Conflicts are Communication, 1990 communicative interactions interdependence tension. among people who are interdependent and who perceive that their interests are incompatible, inconsistent, or in tension. 1 Tjosvoldand Conflict.. .incompatible Incompatibility, van de activities...occurs within cooperation, Vliert 1994 cooperative as " well as competition. competitive contexts... conflict parties’. Folger, Conflict is the interaction of Interaction, Poole, and interdependent people who interdependence, Stutman perceive incompatible goals incompatibility. 1997 and interference from each other in achieving those goals. Source: Walker, Gregg (2011) ‘Definitions of Conflict: An Academic Sample’, wwwxampus-adr.org/cmher/Renort Resources Definitions, retrieved online 9/10/2011. 6 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson 1 in goals, and differences in perceptions. Pruitt and Conflict means perceived Interests, aspirations, Rubin divergence of interest, or a beliefs. 1986 belief that the parties’ current aspirations cannot be achieved simultaneously. I Conrad Conflicts are Communication, 1990 communicative interactions interdependence tension. among people who are interdependent and who perceive that their interests are incompatible, inconsistent, or in tension. 1 Tjosvoldand Conflict.. .incompatible Incompatibility, van de activities...occurs within cooperation, Vliert 1994 cooperative as " well as competition. competitive contexts... conflict parties’. Folger, Conflict is the interaction of Interaction, Poole, and interdependent people who interdependence, Stutman perceive incompatible goals incompatibility. 1997 and interference from each other in achieving those goals. Source: Walker, Gregg (2011) ‘Definitions of Conflict: An Academic Sample’, wwwxampus-adr.org/cmher/Renort Resources Definitions, retrieved online 9/10/2011. 6 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations From the table, Walker emphasises that these definitions have much in common. First, they indicate the inevitability of conflict in human affairs. Second, they reveal key features of conflict situations. To be sure, many of the definitions, for example, stress that conflicts involve interdependent parties who perceive some kind of incompatibility between them. Conditions of Conflict There are three main conditions of conflict: 1. A conflict arises on the basis of competing claims or differing perspectives over a particular issue or issues. 2. The parties concerned who are in competition or involved in a dispute must be determined or willing to ensure the dominance of individual position or perspective on the particular issue. 3. The contending issues or forces must be resolved to ensure victory for its own position. It is when we have these three conditions that conflicts are bound to occur. Origin of Conflict Lewis Coser in his book, The Functions o f Social Conflict (1976) identifies or traces the origin of conflict to early man. According to him, there has always been conflict since the creation of man. Conflict arises as a result of man’s desire to create for himself an ideal environment where he could have access to all his desires and live in utmost comfort. Because of the limitation imposed by nature itself and the scarcity of resources, it has not 7 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Jc'r.r.zon been possible to prevent conflict as man struggles with man for the control o f the environment and realisation of his goals as well as the goals of his society. As conflict exists or arises in the course of individual competition, so does conflict erupt when different groups or societies aspire and compete for particular resources or objectives. When the various sources of conflict are reduced to fundamentals, the origin of conflict can be traced to biological, social, psychological, religious, economic and political factors. In tracing the origin of any particular conflict, therefore, it is necessary to examine: 1. The nature of the conflict. 2. The history of the conflict. 3. The characters or parties involved in the conflict. 4. The dimensions of the conflict. On the bases of these factors, it is possible to truly understand the nature of the conflict and best way to solve or resolve the conflict. Forms of Conflict Conflict has three forms. 1. Intra-personal conflict. 2. Inter-personal conflict. 3. Supra-personal conflict. Intra-personal conflict: This is the conflict that takes place within a particular human being. Inter-personal conflict: This occurs between individuals or between groups. 8 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations S u p ra -p e rs o n a l conflict: This type could be at three levels: (i) societal (ii) intra-state and (iii) inter-state levels. Societal conflict is conflict within community, for example the Ife-Modekeke conflict and Aguleri-Umuleri conflict in Osun and Anambra states respectively in Nigeria. Intrastate conflict is conflict within states, for example conflicts between NUPENG and Federal Government of Nigeria, ASUU and Federal Government of Nigeria. Inter-state conflict is known as international conflict as found between Israel and Palestine, Nigeria and Cameroon among others. Theories of Conflict From the dawn of time, efforts have been made to explain why people resort to violence. Those who study conflict have invariably concluded that conflict is rooted in various sources. This discourse raises questions about how to go about empirical investigations of theoretical and strategic models of conflict. These theories include: Economic theories, Marxist theory, Behavioural theory, Realist theory, systematic theory, and linkage theory. It has been argued that no single theory sufficiently explains the causes of conflict at any level. Indeed, scholars have interpreted the term theory in different ways. The concept has been used so indiscriminately and imprecisely by social scientists in general that it is virtually in danger of losing any meaningful content. What is important for all to know is that a theory should always have scientific propositions which, when tested, are certified valid. In the same vein, theory’s predictive value should be rated high. 9 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson Concept of Theory A theory can be defined as a body of laws that have been empirically tested with proven conclusions which establish relationship between the structure, functions and performance of the organisation under study, events, processes or phenomena. Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff also describe a theory as an intelligible system of enquiry which enables us to organise and offer a guide for the achievement of a research objective. According to them: theory is a way of organising our knowledge so that we can ask questions worth answering, guide our research toward valid answers, and integrate our knowledge with that of related fields (Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff, 1996; 20). Similarly, a theory is an idea or belief about something arrived at through assumption and, in some cases, a set of facts, propositions, or principles analysed in their relation to one another and used, especially in science, to explain phenomena (Encarta, 2004). Put simply, a theory is a set of propositions and concepts that seek to explain phenomena by specifying the relationships among concepts; a theory’s ultimate purpose is to predict phenomena. Thus, good theory generates a group of testable hypotheses (specific statements positing a particular relationship between two or more variables). Essentially, the following descriptions of theory capture some of its diverse purposes (Burchill et al, 2005: 11-12): 10 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations 1. Theories explain the laws of international politics or recurrent patterns of national behaviour. 2. Theories attempt to explain and predict behaviour or understand the world “inside and the heads” of actors. 3. Theories are traditions of speculation about relations between states which focus on the struggle for power, the nature of international society and the possibility of a world community. 4. Theories use empirical data to test hypotheses about the world such as the absence of war between liberal democratic states. 5. Theories analyse and attempt to clarify the use of concepts such as balance of power. 6. Theories criticise forms of domination and perspectives which make the socially-constructed and changeable seem natural and unalterable (critical theory). 7. Theories reflect on how the world ought to be organised and analyse ways conceptions of human rights or global social justice are constructed and defended (normative or international ethics). 8. Theories reflect on the process of theorising itself as well as analyse epistemological claims about how human beings know the world alongside ontological claims about what the world consists of, for example, whether it basically consists of sovereign states or individuals with rights against, and obligations to, the rest of humanity (constitutive theory). 11 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido^'u Johnson More importantly, the goal of any theory is to explain something which has occurred with a view to dealing with problems which arose or may arise as a result. In this respect, political scientists develop theories in order to understand the causes of events that occur in international relations. Even more pertinent is the fact that scholars have written extensively on the nature, causes and the impact of conflicts. In the same vein, they place a lot of emphasis on some theories in the analysis of conflict. Rather than explaining all the theories of conflict, we will explain the relevant ones within the context of international relations. Economic Theories Economic theories can be understood in a contest for control over economic assets, resources or systems. Economic theories highlight resources, and to that extent, are close to the radical structural theory of conflict. This theory is represented by the Marxist dialectical school with exponents like Marx and Engels. Marxism, in its thesis on historical materialism, presents conflicts as mostly tied to economic structures and social institutions. The main argument of the structuralist conflict theory is that conflict is built into the particular ways societies are structured and organised. The theory considers social problems like political and economic exclusion, injustice, poverty, disease, and inequity as sources of conflict. For Marxist scholars, conflict occurs because of the exploitative and unjust nature of human societies, domination of one class by another and so on. For this reason, radicals like Friedrich Engels, Karl Marx, Joseph Lenin and Mao Tse Tung blame capitalism for being an exploitative system based on its 12 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations relations of production and the division of society into the proletariat and the bourgeoisie. This is why Marx argues in The Communist Manifesto that “the history of all hitherto existing societies is the history o f class struggle”. In essence, the proletariat are a subject class while the bourgeoisie are the ruling class. The ruling class, being in possession o f the major instruments of economic production, also possesses political dominance. As a result, there is conflict between the ruling classes and the subject or the less-privileged citizens. It is this struggle among social classes and groups that divides the society in terms o f power and resource allocation. In sum, the exploitation o f the subject class (proletariat) under capitalism creates conflict. Thus, capitalist societies are accused o f being exploitative and such exploitation is a cause o f conflict. Realist Theories Political realism is a school of thought that explains international relations in terms of power. The exercise of power by states toward each other is sometimes called real politic, or power politics. Central to realist theory are several assumptions that shape the paradigm which forms the basis for much of the theoretical development of the study of the World War II and much of the international political events until the early 1980s. The assumptions are: 1. The international system is based on nation-states as the key actors. 13 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson 2. International politics is essentially conflictual, struggle for power in an anarchic setting in which nation-states inevitably rely on their capabilities to ensure survival. 3. States exist in a condition o f legal sovereignty in which nevertheless there are gradations o f capabilities, with greater and lesser states as actors. 4. States are unitary actors and domestic policy can be separated from foreign policy. 5. States are rational actors characterised by a decision-making process leading to choices based on maximising the national interest. 6. That power is the most important concept in explaining as well predicting state behaviour. However, realist theory or realism highlights the root of conflict to a flaw in human nature which is seen to be selfish and engaging in the pursuit of personalised self-interest defined by power. In the same vein, realism believes that competitive processes between actors, primarily defined as states, is the natural expression of conflict by parties engaged in the pursuit of scarce and competitive interests. Realism as a theory has three components: Descriptive Realism -which sees the world as an arena of conflict; Explanatory Realism which seeks to show that there are genetic defects which push humankind into behaving negatively and that wars become inevitable because there is no mechanism to stop them from occurring; and Prescriptive Realism which builds on the arguments o f Descriptive and Explanatory realisms to say that decision-makers (individuals, groups or nations) have moral 14 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Budding in International Relations justification to defend their basic interests and ensure self- preservation using any means necessary. One o f the leading exponents of realism, Hans Morgenthau argues that realism is a departure from idealism, a theory he accuses o f believing in a moral and rational political order based on universally-valid abstract principles. For Morgenthau, the imperfection in the world, namely conflict, has its roots in forces that are inherent in human nature. Morgenthau further states that human nature is selfish, individualistic and naturally conflictive adding that states will always pursue their national interests defined as power, and the interest will come into conflict with those of others, hence the inevitability o f conflict. To sum up, actors, according to the realists, should prepare to deal with the consequences of conflict since it is inevitable, rather than wish there were none. This theory greatly justifies the militarisation of international relations, the arms race, and engenders the emergence of other theories like deterrence theory and balance of terror. It is important to note that the theory has been associated with elevating power and the state to the status of an ideology. However, students of international politics should take into consideration the fact that realism has had tremendous impact on conflict at the international level. Psycho-analytical Theories It has been argued that conflict has inside and outside dimensions. It arises out of the internal dimensions of individuals acting singly or in groups; it is also attributable to external conditions and social structures. At all levels of analysis, larger organised aggregates of 15 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson human beings affect smaller aggregates and individuals, and vice versa. Individuals and groups are in constant interaction. The question to ask ourselves is: which is more important -the larger or the smaller? However, scientists from many disciplines interested in conflict will probably never be able to agree on an answer to this fundamentally-important question. The only available solution to this dilemma is to regard social situations and individual inner processes as an organic whole. From the foregoing, Peter Coming (as cited in Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff, 1996) has noted that without an understanding of the evolutionary and genetic aspects of behaviour, we cannot fully comprehend the inner principles by which human life is organised, and that social scientists must attend increasingly to the interaction between the organism and the environment. In the same vein, Edward O. Wilson (1975) postulates that in place of a general aggressive instinct, there are particular patterns of aggressive behaviour that have been adapted by various species to ensure their survival in the Darwinian evolutionary scheme. The major theme of psycho-analytical theory (behavioural theory) is that all living organisms have certain fundamental, species-specific biological requirements. These include a reasonably pure atmosphere, numerous nutritional requirements, fresh water, shelter, clothing, and health care. For a long period, the greater part of all economic activity is devoted to meeting basic biological needs. Thus, biological needs quickly results into higher psychological needs that are often even more difficult to satisfy. These psychological needs are sense of belonging, self-esteem and prestige, self-actualisation and so on. To be sure, much of the political and economic competition and conflict among human 16 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations societies is traceable to the fact that the demand for resources required to satisfy biological and psychological needs always exceeds the supply. Similarly, behavioural theories have given rise to what may be referred to as the innate theory of conflict which contends that conflict is innate in all social interactions, and among all animals, including human beings. This theory is broad in coverage, incorporating sociology, biology, physiology, ethology and psychology in explaining human behaviour. It theory argues that humans are animals, although higher species of animals, and would fight naturally over what they cherish. Systemic Theory The term system has been used in several ways in the context of international relations. In the literature of political science, however, system analysis is often used interchangeably with system theory. We can define a system as having: 1. Parts. 2. Parts related to one another. 3. Relationships governed by rules. 4. Order in how the parts are related. 5. Cohesion, unity of purpose in the system. On the other hand, system theory can be defined as a series of statements about relationships among independent and dependent variables, in which changes in one or more variables are followed by changes in other variables or combinations of variables. While the abstract part of the general systems theory is traced to the 17 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson natural sciences, especially biology, the theory in its operational mode has found strong relevance in the social sciences. The intellectuals who have developed the systems theory in international relations include Karl Deutsch, Morton Kaplan, David Singer, Charles McClelland and Kenneth Boulding. Others who have contributed immensely to the theoretical development of systems analysis include a renowned political scientist, David Easton and a foremost sociologist, Talcott Parsons. However, Parsons has exercised the greatest influence on the use of the systems theory in political analysis. Essentially, systemic theories provide a socio-structural explanation for the emergence of conflicts. The position of this theory is that reason for any conflict lies in the social context within which it occurs. In other words, any systemic factor which changes the social, political and economic processes of any society can lead to conflict. Systemic factors that lead to changes in human material comfort include environmental degradation that reduces access to sources of livelihood, uncontrolled population growth especially in urban centres, resource scarcity and its allocation through lopsided political processes and competition, vegetative effects of colonial and Cold War legacies, breakdown of cherished values and traditions that play crucial social control functions, widespread poverty in the midst of plenty, the domination and marginalisation of minority groups by the majority, and ethnicity (Faleti, 2006). The above examples are systemic causes of conflict. Frustration - Aggression Theory Most psychologists today trace individual aggression to some form of frustration. John Dollard et al at Yale University began with the 18 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations assum ption that “aggression is always a consequence o f frustration” and that frustration always leads to some form o f aggression. They define frustration as “an interference with the occurrence of an instigated goal response at its proper tim e” . It is instructive to note that theorists who rely on this explanation use the psychological theories of motivation and behaviour as well as frustration and aggression. In an attempt to explain aggression, scholars point to the difference between what people feel they want or deserve to what they actually get. Where expectation does not meet attainment, the tendency is for people to confront those they hold responsible for frustrating their ambition. This is the central position of Ted Robert Gurr in his relative deprivation thesis: The greater the discrepancy, however marginal, between what is sought and what seems attainable, the greater will be the chances that anger and violence will result (Gurr, 1970: 24). Central to the explanation offrustration aggression theory' is that in a situation where the legitimate desires of an individual is denied either directly or by the indirect consequence of the way the society is structured, the feeling of disappointment may lead the person to express anger through violence directed at those he holds responsible or people who are directly or indirectly related to them. Linkage Theory Rosenau (1969) introduces and argues in favour of the linkage theory o f conflict. He relates the theory as any recurrent sequence o f behaviour that originates in one system and attracts a reaction. 19 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson The theory attempts to explain instability or stability in a country and can be explained not only from the socio-economic and political conditions in the home country, but with occurrences at the international level. As technology shrinks the world into a global village and heightens the interdependence of nations, the linkage phenomenon is too obvious and influential to be ignored. Therefore, no country is absolved from the stress and strain of conflicts, demands from neighbouring states and pressure from international organisations. Quite obviously, the import of the linkage theory is its guide in the design of foreign policy. Put simply, a country’s foreign policy or approach to it could be the root cause of a major conflict. For instance, the abrogation of the Anglo-Nigerian Defence Pact of 1962 was largely due to the degree of protest registered by the people of Nigeria against it. This implies that Nigeria’s decision to go into the agreement, and only to abruptly abrogate it, cannot be analysed without using this approach. In the same vein, the structure o f internal differences in Nigeria was aptly reflected in the Arab/Israeli conflict in the First Republic. The religious and regional interests which were sharply pronounced in Nigeria created a situation where country could not present a common front on this thorny international issue. Finally, the relevance of the theory is that it offers an essential insight into the obvious interconnectedness o f events in both domestic and international environments. This is to the extent that events in one nation have consequences in another or determine the outcome and direction of events in another. This may trigger off traces of conflict between the nations involved. 20 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Two Systematic Approaches to Understanding National and International Conflicts This chapter examines the systematic explanations or approaches to what is meant by national and international conflicts. It is desirable to note here that control of the state has been a central object of violent struggle. Since World War II, almost 150 governments have been created. Because of the multi-ethnic populations of many of these states and the persistence of ideological and religious clashes, national governments have been under constant siege. International conflicts, however, involve much more than violent or armed collusion. The various approaches to understanding both national and international conflicts will be the core pursuit in this chapter. It has become generally accepted that the state is a necessity and rebellion against the state is inevitable. This is paradoxical, but it also presents a reasonable line of argument on which the dynamics of conflicts are based. The necessity of a state is informed by the need to organise society in such a way that specific roles will be played by different individuals and there will be some role relationships between the individual and other stakeholders within the state. The various perspectives of individuals with regard to the nature and essence of the state are parts of the factor which contributes to conflict situation. Where there is struggle for limited resources, pursuit of ideology, interest of values among people, manifestation of conflict begins to show. The same scenario is more prevalent among countries especially when the presence of power differentials could UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson make one country assume the tendency to exploit others. The swing of power to one side induces tension and conflict, but focus could also be placed on entire social system. The fact that different interest groups in a social system pursue different goals, and have to contend with one another, indicates that conflict would naturally erupt. In the same vein, scholars generally agree that conflict is a normal phenomenon in interactions among humans, whether individually or collectively. National Conflict National conflict arises as a result of the conflicting perspectives or preferences of those within it who are unable to settle dispute peacefully or manage crises that arise. This sometimes leads to the extreme extent in which some consider the state itself handicapped or evil. There were those of the revolutionary mode such as Mikhail Bakunin (1814-1876) who contend that the act of destruction is creative and the state must be destroyed in order to create statehood. Bakunin advocates the nihilistic tactics of assassination for its effects of psychological terror and the demolition o f existing institutions. Also, Enrico Malatesta (1850 - 1932), an Italian journalist, regards well-planned violence as a suitable means of educating the working classes as to the meaning of revolutionary struggle. Similarly, the French journalist, Georges Sorel (1847 - 1922), perceives value in proletarian acts of violence that serve to describe the separation of classes. Such violence, Sorel maintains, helps to develop the consciousness of the working class and the middle class in a chronic state of fear, always ready to capitulate to 22 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining ana' Peace Building in International Relations the demands made on it, rather than risk defending its position by resorting to force. .Anarchism contends that violence is required to liberate man from the change of statehood. What is anarchism? It is the doctrine that opposes established all forms of political authority. Anarchists view life as a moral drama in which the individual is arrayed against the state and all the oppressive instruments of coercion that they associate with government - bureaucracy, courts, police and the military as well as the institutions of private property and religion. They seek liberation from these and all forms of external constraint on human freedom. Thus, anarchists are essentially foes of capitalists and socialists alike; and the resort to violence to change statehood is inevitable. For anarchists, violence in this case could be seen as a symbolic act to influence political behaviour by extra legal and extra normal means. Furthermore, it could also be said that all revolutions are extra-legal means of challenging the state . To those who believe in creating conflict through the use of violence, it is considered a useful instrument of political power acquisition and it has three main characteristics: 1. Spontaneous causes from a chain of events. 2. Violence may develop when or because the process of law enforcement has broken down. 3. It could be as a result o f deliberate organisation of those who believe that there is need to change the order of things violently. 23 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson Similarly, some scholars affirm that there could be revolution that would upset the normal flow of events as a result of the existence of some people who are ascetic. What this means is that when the society is perceived as having certain shortcomings, which make it less fulfilling for some people, the revolutionary ascetic becomes an ideal type to which any individual will only partially correspond. Such individual embodies traits exhibited by most revolutionary leaders which lead to events that are often associated with particular revolutions. Indeed, this ideal type stands at the centre of events serving as the moving force for change. As observed by many scholars of anarchism, there are some individuals pointing to what ought to be, what would have been and what shall be. And on the basis of this acting out, they lead others to pursue a cause that would run counter to this existing situation and turn of events. Ted Gurr in his book, Why Men Rebel (1970),) expose both the psycho-social forces, the economic and political environment which conditions the rise of rebels. Gurr argues that relative deprivation is the key to revolutions. For him, political instability only results from deprivation when combined with a belief that conditions are worse than they could and should be. When relative deprivation is widespread, suggest Gurr, instability can result. It is, in his view, the coming together of a number of forces and causes that actually lead to any rebellion in society. In another book, Anarchism: A History o f Libertarian Ideas and Movements, George Woodcock suggests that, based on individual conception of the goal of society or the ideal that must be pursued in society, men are moved by a combination of innate 24 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations tendencies and social forces. To act and project, the individual believes that people tend to be moved by the ideas projected concerning what is ideal. In simple terms, individuals create or discover what should be the real political order within which they should operate. To this end, there is a tendency sometimes to con ju re on legendary heroes in the midst of time. In some places, these personalities project themselves as messiah or a great warrior who has come to liberate. Going back to ancient history, the account of Rome and Romulus could be recalled. Also, Machiavelli’s Discourses, especially chapter 9 , tends to state some of the characteristics of kingdom as a commonwealth moulded in the form of one person. This purports that it is what an individual could do at any given time that would determine the quality of the future of the commonwealth. There is also the quest by individuals who are active within a particular system at any given time trying to justify what is in existence or the need to change the existing situation. The attempt to resist this move usually leads to conflicts in the society and culminate in crisis in the nation. There is the psychological interpretation of the innate force on the individual that has been frequently related to what the psychologist denotes as libido which relates to the instinctual energy and desire derived from the id. In psychoanalytical terms, the id refers to the impulses of the unconscious source of energy wuthm the individual. The way this operates in relation with the ego, which is the psychic apparatus that experiences and reacts to 25 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson the outside world as individual interacts. Another is the superego derived from the punitive aspect of some people s authority. The implication of the above discussion is that, based on the individual perception of things within people, in the scheme of things, the drive for power and actualisation could lead not only to internal crisis but also to social and political conflicts. This is because the more individual relates to each other in a complex larger environment, the more conflicting issues will arise. This explains the Nigerian Civil War, considering the key actors in the war. In a similar vogue is the Ife-Modakeke crisis and its degeneration into conflict. Also, when conflict erupts on university campus either among cults or social groups, the cause can be explained to an extent in terms of individual perception and idiosyncrasy. Domestic Politics and Civil ConflictsAVars Civil wars are conflicts within a country. Wars of this type are more common than international wars in the contemporary world. Notably, conflict within states is of concern for two reasons. Firstly, and perhaps most obviously, internal conflict can be enormously destructive and long-lasting, taking a large toll on society in terms of life, the breakdown of civilian infrastructure, enduring conditions of poverty and underdevelopment. Secondly, conflict within states is an issue of serious concern because it may provoke conflict between states. It has been observed that between 1990 and the start of 2005, internal armed conflicts over government (civil wars) were the most common by far. In this period, 112 civil wars erupted in comparison with only four between states (Kegley 2007' 420) 26 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations It is noteworthy to recognise the characteristics o f civil war. They are: 1 The average duration of civil wars has increased. This means that the number of ongoing civil wars has exceeded the rate of civil war initiation. Thus, civil wars dominate the global terrain because they start and bum at a higher rate than they end, and they last longer. Notable examples are long-lasting and resumed civil wars in Afghanistan, Burundi, Colombia, Congo, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Pem, the Philippines, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Turkey and Uganda. 2. Civil wars colour the entire global terrain because they attract worldwide attention and because external involvement through the military intervention of one or more foreign countries is increasingly common. Since 1946, about one-fifth of the rising number of civil wars have been internationalised with outside actors intervening to influence the outcome. 3. Severity of civil wars is also another feature. In other words, the number of lives lost in civil violence has been very high, and casualties from civil wars since World War II have increased at alarming rate. Also, genocide and mass slaughter aimed at reducing the population in a particular region have become commonplace in recent civil wars. In the Rwandan case, for instance, the Hutu-dominated government arranged a genocidal slaughter of about 500,000. predominantly Tutsi and moderate Hutu people in a matter of weeks. 27 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY IdoMt Johnson e n e m i e s u g u u n c , * * * ---------------- combat through negotiated compromise at the bargaining table. Causes of Civil War There are several salient issues which can trigger off civil wars. These are: Ethnic Hatred Identity is an intrinsic element of the self, encompassing the psychological, physical, social and spiritual sense of a person’s existence. Any threat to this core sense of identity can override rational thought and reasoning. In other words, a sense of security based on a distinctive identity, a wider social recognition of that identity and effective participation in social, economic and political processes are the basic needs of all humanity (Rupesinghe, 1998). The denial of such needs can lead to a feeling of victimisation and culminate in conflict. Much of the internal revolts and ethnic warfare currently sweeping the world is inspired less by political motives and economic aims than deep-rooted ethnic hatred. Waged primarily by irregular militia and private gangs against their neighbours, extreme ethnonationalists are people who are prepared to kill and die in large numbers. In the same vein, evidence indicates that intense 2 8 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaming and Peace Budding in International Relations identification with one’s own nationality or ethnic group provokes civil war against a government, especially if it is repressive. Relative Deprivation/Decline in Income Internal violence is a reaction to frustration and relative deprivation. When people’s expectation of what they deserve rise more rapidly than their material rewards, the probability of conflict grows. That, of course, applies to most of the countries in the Global South today, where the distribution of wealth and opportunities is highly unequal. Furthermore, years of stagnant negative economic growth in poor and middle-income countries have triggered social disturbance as competition for scarce resources, jobs and other opportunities has heightened. In such conditions, the ruling political elite can be undermined as their leadership is challenged in coups d ’etat. For example, in Sierra Leone, Captain Valentine Strasser masterminded a coup in 1991, pushing the country into deeper economic decline and eventually war. Liberia, Algeria and Lebanon suffered economic decline in the years preceding internal conflict. Lack o f Democracy Absence of democracy is another condition that may promote civil war. Especially for wars that stem from ethnic or religious conflicts, a group’s lack of democratic rights can threaten the core o f its ethnic identity and reduce the possibility o f redressing its grievances. However, the greatest risk of civil war comes in countnes where the government is neither tough enough to repress effectively nor democratic enough to redress grievances. 29 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson C a u se s o f W a r by Le v e l o f A n a ly s is Le v e l C au se In d iv id u a l A g g re ss iv e c h a ra c te r is t ic s o f lead ers "B a d " d e c is io n s by le ad e rs A ttr ib u te s o f m a sse s (in stin ct, a g g re ss io n ) C o m m u n ic a tio n fa ilu re M isp e rc e p t io n s S t a te / S o c ie ty L ib era l ca p ita lis t s ta te s a cco rd in g to M a rx is ts N o n lib e ra l/ n o n d e m o c ra t ic sta te s a c c o rd in g to lib e ra ls S tru g g le b e tw e e n g ro u p s fo r e c o n o m ic re s o u rc e s E th n o n a tio n a l ch a lle n g e rs • In te r n a t io n a l A n a rch y Lack o f a rb ite r P ro m in e n ce o f lo n g cy c le s o f w a r a n d p e a c e P o w e r tra n s it io n s . A g g re s s iv e n e s s o f th e in te rn a tio n a l c a p ita lis t c la s s Source: Mingst, K. (1999) Essentials of International Relations. New York; W.W. Norton & Company. The table above shows that the specific causes of war can be neatly placed within the framework of the three levels of analysis. But in actuality, most wars are caused by the interactions between different levels of analysis and different explanatory factors 30 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Demographic Stress A number of demographic factors contribute to precipitate civil wars. Among them, several characteristics stand out as powerful, namely high proportions of young adults, rapid urban population growth, diminishing per capita supplies of cropland and fresh water, and high -rates of death among working age adults. Countries with a high proportion of adults under 30 years have two and a half times the probability of experiencing a new outbreak of civil conflicts as do those with more mature age structures relative to population size (Cincotta and Engleman 2004, 18). Geopolitical Environmental Factors The probability of a country undergoing civil strife is affected by key characteristics of its geographic preconditions, such as low supplies of cropland and freshwater. For instance, if a country is mountainous and has a large, lightly-populated hinterland, it is vulnerable to an enhanced risk of rebellion. Also, the presence of rich natural resources influences the outbreaks of civil wars. In explicit terms when valuable natural resources are discovered in a region of a country, the people living in such localities have an economic incentive to secede, violently if necessary. Conflict is also more likely in countries that depend heavily on natural resources for export earnings, in part because rebel groups can utilise the gains from this trade to finance their operations. 31 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido l’ll Johnson Secessionist Revolts The seeds of civil strife are often sown by national independence movements. Most rebellions have been driven by the quest, through mien-ilia warfare, to win broad public support, create a political wing, present an alternative system of governance, and build international legitimacy. Failed States Internal wars can be the cause and consequence of failed states. Failed states means states that are internationally-recognised, but whose governments (if they exist) cannot provide their citizens with the minimum level of security and well-being of sovereign states. It is very important to know that the proliferation of failing states is a growing global danger, because the civil wars caused by state failure leads to waves of migration, famine, disease, drug trafficking, and terrorism. Essentially, the causes of state failure and civil disintegration are multiple, but failed states share some key features that make them vulnerable to disintegration and civil war. Some of these attributes are: 1. Poor democracies that do not improve living standards are exceptionally vulnerable to civil war. 2. A strong predictor of state failure is poverty, but extreme income and gender inequality within countries are greater warning signs. 3. The failing states most vulnerable to internal rebellion are ruled by corrupt governments widely regarded as illegitimate and ineffective. 4. The best predictor of state failure is high infant mortality. 32 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining arid Peace Building in International Relations 5 . The existence of youth bulge - a large proportion of young adults in the population- increases the risk of state failure through war because a large pool of underemployed youths are easily mobilised into military action. Mechanisms for Resolving Civil Wars It has been observed that civil wars are costly and destructive. Similarly, war does not erupt overnight. In this sense, it will be reasonable to deploy early warning mechanism in preventing the escalation of civil war. Early warning is concerned with forecasting the potential for the escalation of internal conflicts. In other words, predictions about crisis would be part of the system, but the aim is to help avert the initial development of a crisis. However, in as much as war is an inevitable phenomenon, it should be resolved or brought to a peaceful end. In this regard, the environment should be made suitable for the main actors including the armed groups or rebels to participate under a neutral third party mediator. It is only peaceful resolution of internal conflicts or civil wars that brings about desired peace and political stability required for socio-economic development. Strategies for War/Conflict Termination The process of ending civil wars is complex and difficult. It is evident that not only are civil wars more difficult to settle than inter-state wars, but when they come, the settlement is more fragile. Historically, negotiated solutions to such wars are rare. Since 1800, only one third of all civil wars have ended through negotiations. Since 1945, the ratio stands at 25 per cent (Rupersinghe, 1998). 33 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson Although the Ethiopian war and the more recent conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ended through military solution, compromise solutions are becoming more prevalent. Liberia, El Salvador and Guatemala are amongst places where conflicts terminated through negotiations in recent years. There are no set of patterns or models applicable to every conflict. But one process that can be used is to identify potential targets for negotiations. By aiming to understand and unveil the belligerents’ incentives for continued fighting, their disincentives for compromise and structural features of the conflict, third party mediators can develop specific strategies for initiating negotiation. In his book, Ending Civil Wars, Charles King (cited in Rupersinghe, 1998) identifies key factors as follows: 1. Leadership. 2. Making war unprofitable. 3. Reducing asymmetry. 4. Guaranteeing security. Leadership: This is among the biggest obstacles to be overcome by third party mediators. Leaders, be they heads of state or of guerrilla movements, can be uncooperative and recalcitrant. Opponents may often demand the removal of a leader before agreeing to enter into negotiations. However, few leaders are willing to step down from power. As a result, neither side is willing to engage in power­ sharing agreements. Both sides may agree to participate in democratic elections, but if the results are disappointing to one side, its likelihood of reneging on the original agreement increases. 34 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining am;J Peace Builcl'ng in International Relations To address this. King argues that a change in leadership, whether through death or other means, can create opportunities for negotiation as it occurred in Mozambique, Chechnya and Sierra Leone. But under certain conditions, a change of leadership can increases the chances for negotiation. These conditions include: - If the incumbent leader is a key obstacle to negotiations. - If successors are united in their desire for peace. - If the successor is keen to distance himself from the policies of the predecessor. Making W ar Unprofitable: Reducing the profitability of war can be a major blow to belligerents. War often spawns its own economy. It can mean good business for governments and insurgents, particularly since criminality is a significant component in many contemporary conflicts. It is important that the international community responds to this disturbing phenomenon by freezing the bank accounts and seizing the assets of those suspected of involvement in the conflict. Restricting a group’s ability to purchase weapons can be instrumental in forcing it to the negotiating table. Reducing Asymmetry: This policy can be effective in reducing imbalances between the warring groups and creating a level playing field. External powers are often in a strong position to influence one or both sides’ capacity to wage war by denying them aid, access to weapons or money, and refusing to offer safe havens to the fighters. There is no doubt that the end of the Cold War was a significant factor in the resolution of the Mozambique conflict. In Latin 35 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson America also, the El Salvador peace agreement of 1992 was fast- tracked by the withdrawal of Soviet and Cuban aids. Thus, the loss of support can be a major equaliser in internal conflicts. Guaranteeing Security: As King suggests, the absence of objective and credible security guarantees is a critical issue for all parties in conflict. Typically, belligerents rely on their fighting power for security, so they are reluctant to disarm and make themselves vulnerable to possible attack. This security dilemma can be the single most potent factor in the success or failure of a peace settlement. It is important, therefore, to devise a strategy which not only addresses the broader issues of security, but also offers the right incentives for combatants to disarm willingly. Other strategies for war termination include: 1. Addressing impunity. 2. Controlling the spread of small arms. 3. Demobilisations 4. Protection of children in war. 5. Promoting the application of international humanitarian laws to internal armed conflict. 6. Strengthening civil society and building local capacities towards conflict prevention. International Conflict At the international level, it is observed that the various conflicts, resolved or partially resolved or yet to be resolved, are due to a number of factors or forces and we could understand the nature of 36 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining a 1d Peace Building in International Relations the conflicts by understanding the extent of the theoretical basis of conflict generally. However, conflict in international relations arises from the desire of two or more nations to attain a goal or achieve an objective which is only possible for one nation. Accordingly, international conflict is viewed from two broad perspectives: it is simply (i) an increase and (ii) a change in the type of interaction or intensity in disruptive interactions between two or more countries with the probability of military hostilities (wars) which are likely to destabilise the relationship between two or more states and consequently bring about structural changes of the international system. Another way of expressing it is that conflict usually involves striving for control over a substance which is of mutual incompatibility to the opposing parties. An international conflict could arise from a domestic cause, thereby attracting outside intervention. A domestic conflict which assumes international status involves three or more parties or factional groups, each attempting to protect its interest. In the same vein, international conflict could be the result of demand by one nation for territorial right or resources controlled by another or the attempt by a nation to impose its military might, religion, political ideology, or economic power over another (All these are comprehensively treated m Lecture Four). From a more realistic perspective, international conflict occurs when one state is unhappy v. ith another over what that state is doing or planning to do. It is important for students to know that the core of international conflict is the interplay of divergent interests, which are mutually antagonistic. 37 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido^ii Johnson Finally, the fact that different interest groups in a social system pursue different goals and have to contend with one another indicates that conflict would naturally erupt. At various times, Machiavelli, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Burke and Marx have treated conflict from different perspectives. The positions of these scholars significantly differ, but there remains a common cord transcending the society. While Machiavelli's notion of conflict is focused on competition among the aristocrats, Hobbes sees conflict as ever present among people. Burke is of the view that conflict is not only normal but also inevitable among states, and among interest groups within the state. On other hand, Marx seems to believe in conflict as a moving force in the history of all class- divided societies. These different positions have led men into pursuing causes of conflict with conflicting perceptions at the national and international levels. Causes of International Conflicts Realism emphasises that armed conflict have their roots in human nature. In contrast, neo-realism sees conflict springing from changes at the global level of analysis, that is, as a product of the decentralised character of the global system that requires sovereign states to rely on self-help for their security. For the realist therefore, international conflicts can occur not only because some states prefer conflict to peace, but also because of unintended consequences of actions by those who prefer peace to conflict and are more interested in preserving their positions than enhancing it. Some of the causes of international conflicts are: national prestige, imperialism, acquisition, irredentism, religious and ideological extremism, mutual distrust and suspicion and human 38 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining a/id Peace Building in International Relations aggressiveness. Examples will be cited to facilitate understanding of this topic very well. International conflict may be as a result of a challenge to the internal structure of a government or an action intended to strengthen the status quo of those in power. International conflict arises from the foreign crises of one or more states. These crises are basically perceived from three interrelated issues of hostile act, disruptive event and environmental change. A conflict, in international politics, is a process of interaction at higher levels of perceived intensity than the ordinary flow of events and characterised by significant implications for the stability of some system or sub-system. Furthermore, international conflict a state of stress and danger, which may signal opportunities to advance one’s interests. In a more explicit form, it is a recurrent phenomenon generated by long-term economic processes and not an unpredictable, sudden flare o f belligerency among international actors (state and non­ state). The following factors can be the causes o f international conflicts: 1. Imperialism. 2 . Religious extremism. 3. Ideological factor. 4. Territorial acquisition/Disputes. 5. Economic competition. 6 - National prestige. 7. Irredentism. 8 - Ethnic hostility. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson 1. Imperialism: Imperialism is the domination by the economically and politically more advance state over area inhabited by people of different cultures and different levels of development. It can also be said that it is an act of extending influence to a foreign country. In a famous tract entitled Imperialism: The Highest Stage o f Capitalism, Lenin advances the Marxist thesis that Western imperialism - e.g. the late 19th century scramble for colonial territories- was an unmistakable sign that capitalism was still in gestation, that is yet to emerge. Lenin theorised that capitalists would always seek foreign markets where they can make profitable investments and sell or dump industrial surpluses. Thus, through their financial power and the political influence that accompanies it, monopoly capitalists for their selfish purposes push their societies into conflict. Because finance capitalism is the source of imperialism, it is also for Marxists the principal source of international conflicts in the capitalist era. Essentially, imperialism which is the highest stage of capitalism has remained a dominant feature in international politics. There is the imperialistic type of conflict among the territorialists. This kind of conflict could be as a result of one country struggling to acquire economic security through the exploitation of the resources of others. This is the act of extending control over commercial and political spheres of the area dominated. Similarly, imperialist conflicts may lead to the removal of a government that does not support the ideology of the imperial lords, which may manifest in the installation of a puppet government. In sum, because conflict is good business for capitalists, they make it their business to promote conflict. 40 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ( 2. Religious Extremism: Religious extremism is a potential source of conflict in international relations. Because religion is the core of a community's value system in much of the world, people whose religious practices differ are easily not respected and treated as unworthy or even inhuman. According to Goldstein and Pevehouse (2011): Religious differences hold the potential to make existing conflicts more intractable, because religions involve core values which are held as absolute truth. It is noteworthy that fundamentalist movements have gained strength in recent decades. It is important to emphasise that members of these movements organise their lives and communities around their religious beliefs. Many are willing to sacrifice, kill, and die for those beliefs. Across the world, fundamentalist movements have become larger and more powerful in recent decades in Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Hinduism and other religions. More importantly, fundamentalist movements challenge the values and practices of secular political organisations; those created apart from religious establishments. It should be noted that the secular practices threatened by fundamental movements include the rules of the international system which treat states as formally equal and sovereign whether they are believers or infidels. As transnational belief systems, religions are taken as a higher law than state laws and international treaties. For example, Iranian Islamist fundamentalists train and support militias in other states such as 41 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idow'A Johnson Iraq and Lebanon. In the same vein, Jewish fundamentalists build settlements in Israeli-occupied territories and vow to cling to the land even if their government evacuates it. Likewise Christian fundamentalists in the United States persuade their government to withdraw from the UN Population Fund because of that organisation’s view of family planning and abortion. Each of these actions runs counter to the norms of the international political system and the assumptions of realism. Some have suggested that international conflicts in the future may be generated by a clash o f civilisations based on differences among the world’s major cultural groupings, which overlap quite a bit with religious communities. Huntington (1996) argues that cultural and ethnic differences between civilisations, namely states or groups of states that distinguish themselves by cultural traits, will lead to conflict. These cultural differences are first and foremost religious in nature, although linguistic and geographic proximity also plays a role. Huntington’s main prediction is that future conflicts will be fought between Muslims and non-Muslims. Thus, conflict along boundaries between Muslims and non-Muslims, as in Philippines, Kashmir, Chechnya, Kosovo, Bosnia, Sudan, Nigeria, and Palestine are seen as proof that Islam has blooding borders. Currently, violent conflicts are prosecuted in the name of all world’s major religions. But special attention is due to conflicts involving Islamic groups and states. Islamist groups advocate basing government and society on Islamic law. These groups vary greatly in the means they employ to pursue this goals. Most are non-violent (charities and political parties) while some are violent (militia and terrorist networks). 42 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations If Islamist movements seek changes primarily in domestic policies, we must ask ourselves, why do they matter for international relations? Islamist politics may lead to different foreign policies, but the more important answer is that some Islamist movements have become transnational force, shaping world order and global North-South relations in important ways. What I am saying is that in several countries, Islamists reject Western-oriented secular states in favour of governments more explicitly oriented to Islamic values. In this respect, these movements reflect long-standing anti-Western sentiments in these countries; against the old European colonisers who were Christians, and are in some ways nationalist movements expressed through religious channels. In some Middle Eastern countries with authoritarian governments, religious institutions (mosques) have been the only available avenue for political opposition. Religion has therefore become a means to express opposition to the status quo in politics and culture. These anti-Western feelings in Islamic countries came to a boiling point in 2006 after a Danish newspaper published cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad. Across the world, Muslims considered it offensive, protested, rioted and boycotted Danish goods. It is interesting to know that anti-American and anti- Western sentiments in predominantly Islamic countries have accelerated the growth of violent Islamist groups as well. Although they are in the minority, they have disproportionate effects on international relations and receive the most public attention. Armed Islamist groups vary tremendously, and in some cases, violently 43 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson disagree with each other. In particular, divisions between the Sunni and Shiite wings of Islam have led to violence, especially in and around Iraq. In Iran, a popular uprising in 1979 overthrew the U.S.- backed Shah and installed an Islamic government in which the top religious leaders (Ayatollahs) can overturn the laws passed by the parliament. In sum, conflicts involving Islamist movements are more complex than simply religious conflicts; they concern power, economic relations, ethnic chauvinism and historical empires. 3. Ideological Factor: Ideological extremism is also characterised by beliefs in a particular ideological disposition. The bipolarisation of the world after World War II arose from differences in ideology. Undeniably, the Cold War was a global ideological struggle between capitalist democracy and communism, led by the United States and the former Soviet Union respectively. Similarly, ideology and political philosophies play some roles in international politics. Ideologies can help mobilise national populations for various causes including war. For instance, Fascism inflamed German nationalism before World War II, legitimising German aggression by placing it in an ideological framework. And in some proxy wars of the Cold War era; such as Vietnam in the 1960s and Nicaragua in the 1980s, the rebels and governments had real ideological differences. 4 Territorial Acquisition Disputes: Among the international conflicts that concern tangible goods those about territory have special importance because of the territorial nature of the state and sovereignty. Conflicts over control of territory are really of two 44 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bai pa in me and Pi Pa mg m international Relations varieties, namely territorial disputes (about where borders are drawn) and conflicts over control of entire states within existing borders. In as much as states value home territories with an almost fanatical devotion, border disputes tend to be among the most intractable in international relations. The value states place on home territory seems undiminished despite the apparent reduction in the inherent value of territory as technology grows. Historically, territory was the basis of economic production comprising agriculture and the extraction of raw materials. Therefore, winning and losing wars meant gaining or losing territory, which also meant increasing or decreasing wealth. Today, however, much more wealth derives from trade and technology than from agriculture. The costs of most territorial disputes appear to outweigh any economic benefits that the territory in question could provide. Exceptions exist however, such as the capture of diamond-mining areas in several African countries by rebels who use diamond revenue to finance war. In addition, efforts by a province or region to secede from an existing state are a special type of conflict over borders; not the borders of two existing states but the efforts to draw international borders around a new state. Dozens of secession movements of varying sizes and political effectiveness exist around the world, but they rarely succeed in seceding. This is because the existing state almost always tries to hold on to the area in question. It is very important in international relations to note that wars o f secession can be large and deadly, and can easily spill over international borders or draw in other countries. This spill over is 45 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY /down Johnson particular])' likely if members of an ethnic or a religious group span two sides of a border, constituting the majority group in one state and a majority in a nearby region of another state, but a minority in the other state as a whole. As a way of illustration, in the Kosovo case, Albanian Muslims are the majority in Albania and in Kosovo but the minority in Serbia. The same pattern occurs in Bosnia- Serbia, Moldova-Russia, and India-Pakistan. In some cases, secessionists want to merge their territories with the neighbouring state which amounts to redrawing the international border. However, international norms frown on such outcome. Thus, an attempt to bring different people under one national flag may lead to conflict. 5 Economic Competition: Economic competition is the most pervasive form of conflict in international relations because economic transactions are pervasive. Every sale made and every deal reached across international borders entail a resolution of conflicting interests. However, such economic transactions also contain a strong element of mutual economic gain in addition to the element of conflicting interests. Some have even argued that a different kind of economic conflict revolves around the distribution of wealth within and among states. As known by everybody, the tremendous disparities in wealth in our world create a variety of international security problems with the potential for violence, including terrorist attacks on rich countries by groups in poor countries. In the same vein, revolutions in poor countries are often fuelled by disparities of wealth within the country as well as its poverty relative to other 46 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building m International Relations countries. These revolutions in turn frequently draw in other states as supporters of one side in a civil war. Furthermore, Marxist approach to international relations (see Lecture Two on Marxist Theory of Conflict) treats class struggle between rich and poor people as the basis of interstate relations. According to this, capitalist state adopts foreign policies that serve the interests of the rich owners of companies. Conflicts and wars between the global North and South (rich states versus poor states) are seen as reflections of the domination and exploitation of the poor by the rich that is imperialism in direct or indirect form. For example, most Marxists saw the Vietnam War as a U.S. effort to suppress revolution in order to secure continued U.S access to cheap labour and raw materials in Southeast Asia. Also, many Marxists portray conflicts among capitalist states as competition over the right to exploit poor areas. On the other hand, Soviet founder, V. I. Lenin portrayed World War I as a fight over imperialists’ division of the world. 6. National Prestige: Nations go into conflict because they want to show off, defend, project or protect their national prestige. We can also say that prestige is the respect countries enjoy abroad. This respect might be as a result of the ideology a country pursues or the level of culture, the amount of technical power, the wealth of the country - all of these or any other indices of power (military, technological etc) will add to the respect of a nation. 7. Irredentism: Irredentism can be linked to nationalism. What then is nationalism? It is the devotion to the interests of one’s own 47 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson nation over the interests of other states. However, the goal of regaining territory lost to another state is called irredentism. Irredentist movements have been a source of conflict, especially in Africa. As colonialism separated people of same cultural affinities, there was a movement to unify them after independence. The leader attempts to bring the people into one country under one government. This type of case resulted in the Ogaden war between Ethiopia and Somalia in East Africa. 8. Ethnic Hostility: Many conflicts in contemporary international politics arise from threats (or perceived threats) to group identification and loyalty. One problem is that states and nations may not coincide on the same territory. Thus, the separate nationalisms o f different ethnic groups may threaten to tear a state apart, as in the former Yugoslavia. Different national identities within a state may tempt another state to intervene on behalf of a minority. Sometimes a feeling of nationality may spill over many states, calling into question the legitimacy of separate states (as in the case o f pan-Arab nationalism). Governments may therefore suppress minority rights, force minorities to emigrate, or even kill minorities. Although entities in the international system are commonly referred to as nation-states, there are many multinational states and multi-state nations. As a matter of fact, the mismatch o f state and nation has been the cause of much conflict in world politics. While no single factor appears to be sufficient to account for group loyalty, it may be that a cleavage along racial, tribal, linguistic, or religious lines is sufficient to bring about ethno political conflict, also known as communal conflict. 48 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Three Game, Bargaining and Decision-making Theory In this chapter, attempt will be made to ask why countries engage in lengthy wars when the belligerents would be better off if they could settle their disputes without conflict Answer to the question involves the use of game theory in understanding the outcome of conflict. Also, bargaining in conflict situation requires the creation of environment conducive to negotiation. Another issue to be noted is that conflict is a product of rational choice. In other words, the decision to engage in warfare is part of bargaining process that occurs between adversaries to settle disputes and disagreements over scarce resources. Game theory is on strategic approach to the study of international conflict. It is based on an abstract form of reasoning, arising from a combination of mathematics and logic. This approach is applied to international relations in order to avoid conflict. Game theory is based on the assumption that human beings are rational; that is, behaving rationally in a conflict, would maximise one’s chances of winning. Game theory not only provides a way to represent strategic interactions between players, but also a way of analysing their interactions in order to predict an outcome. Game theory as Morgan (1984) captures it: Is a method of analysis and also of selecting the best course of action. It is a body of thought dealing with rational decisions, strategies in situation of conflict or competition, UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido'Mi Johnson when each participant or player seeks to maximize gains or maximize losses (Morgan, 1984: 274). It is very important to note that there are three cardinal principles that underlie the game theory. These are: i) Each player is fully rational and capable of working out any required length the logical consequences of his and other players’ decisions; that is, the ability to anticipate what opponents want to do based on the fact that each player is rational. ii) Each player has full knowledge of the matrix; that is, each player knows how to attack the other, which means that the strategies available to all the players and the corresponding pay-off are known. iii) Each player can act to maximise its pay-off in the knowledge that the other is doing so too. Emerging from these three general principles, some notions of rules are conceived. Indeed, the concepts employed in the game theory have intuitive meaning for the various kinds of contest or conflict in international politics. In this sense, the game theory helps to make rational estimates and limit choice to the more promising strategies. In illustrating the principles of game theory, it is apposite to examine the issue of embargo and arms race in international relations. With regard to, each state must choose independently whether or not to embargo the other’s goods. In analysing this matrix, neither state will impose embargo. Imposing an embargo is 50 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplo,i::-i. *. Con fhc:s. Barganar.r me Pcjcc Bmtiin? m Inc mu; tonal Relations more costly for each player, and for one player to support the embargo while the other does not, brings about significant differential rewards, upsetting the power relationships. In the arms race, both states prefer to arm. The worst outcome is for one state to arm while the other does not, and the best outcome is for both to stop. Essentially, there are advantages of using game theory as a simplification of the complex choices states make. Game theory forces both analysts and policymakers systematically to examine assumptions, helping to clarify the choices available and offering possibilities that may not have been explored. In addition, game theory helps the analyst and policymakers to consider not only their own state’s position but also the stand of the other state. In essence, the focus of the game theory approach is on rational choices and conflict resolution. The choices are either limited or unlimited. Therefore, the ambition of each player in the game is to minimise losses and maximise gains, which, in game theoretic terms, is referred to as pay-off (Adeniran, 1982: 22). The players are expected to be guided by rational calculations and, in most cases, advocates of this approach view international relations as an N-person Non-zero-sum game. What this implies is that a gain by one state or party is not necessarily at the expense of others. It is not the winner-takes-all that characterises the zero-sum game. Thomas Schelling’s Bargaining Theory Thomas Schelling is a leading proponent of theory of bargaining. His perception is located within the game theoretical framework. He started off like Morgenthau as an economist using the economic 51 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY perspective to examine social phenomenon. Schilling moved on from there to focus on the process and pattern of bargaining which takes place in human society. His work presents a combination of socio-psychological as well as logical strategic approaches to the issue or subject of bargaining, particularly conflict as issue dominating human relations as well as interaction among nation states. He views conflict as not necessarily the opposition of hostile forces but rather as a more complex and delicate phenomenon in which antagonism and cooperation often subtly interact in the relationship. His theory seeks to make use of game theory, organisation and communication theory, and theory of evidence, choice and collective decision. This strategic theory, according to Schilling: takes conflict for granted, but also assumes common interest between the adversaries; it assumes a “rational” value-maximizing mode of behaviour; and it focuses on the fact that each participant’s “best” choice of action depends on what he expects the other to do, and that “strategic behaviour” is concerned with influencing another’s choice by working on his expectation of how one’s own behaviour is related to his (Schelling, 1965: 15). From the above, Schelling is mainly interested in the conduct of negotiation, the maintenance of credible deterrence, the making of threats and promises, bluffing, double-crossing, and 52 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY c i ' ' n : i>. . 1 ■' ’ Pcj c k h n r /»; Internationa! Relations waging o f some limited wars when it becomes absolutely necessary. Also involved is the formulation of certain defence or arms control policy. It could be further deduced from Schelling’s writing that, in most international strategic instances, the notion of a zero-sum eame is irrelevant. In his view, the former superpowers could not rationally regard themselves to be engaged in a zero-sum rivalry that could be played out to the bitter end of a full-scale nuclear exchange. According to Schelling, what exists is devotion to national analysis of irrationality of actions. Arising from this is what he refers to as the theory of interdependent decision in which one position is dependent upon the other and any action that could be taken in respect of a particular issue will have to be considered in relation to other issues. Similarly, Schelling argues that the use of violence as a way of getting individuals or nations to take certain action could be regarded as the cost and benefit of such decision. Hence, rather than going into full-scale war, Schelling argues that nations tend to consider the risk and therefore strategically bargain or negotiate. He also uses quantitative utility scale to assess and determine the role of rational behaviour of each party to any particular conflict. Thus, Schelling suggests that the dynamic nature of the international system makes it necessary to consider at any given time the essence of motivational dialectics which is crucial to rational behaviour of each party in a given situation. He adds that the motivation is not necessarily to be assumed as rational but the rational decision that is ultimately taken is motivated by careful calculation which will lead to the desired goals.. He cites cases of threat, extortion and the circumstances under which these take place. When they occur, 53 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY jrfo'\ a Johnson according to Schelling, they are considered by both rationality and irrationality, depending on the extent of calculation which the parties bring to bear on themselves before action is taken. The central argument in Schelling’s work is that bargaining and negotiation are two dimensions to conflict. Quite obviously, in any conflict situation it requires that one enters into bargaining. The bargaining process is predicated upon some degree of power parity or relative strength in which there is mutual admission of some degree of capability. It is this scenario that conditions the motivation for bargaining. A number of hypotheses are associated with bargaining process. They are: 1. Each party at the bargaining table makes effort to extract the highest possible advantage from the opponent. 2. Every negotiator in the bargaining process strives to deny the opponent of relative advantage. 3. The chances or potentials for yielding is dependent upon the perception of the other’s capability, capacity and potentials. The extent to which negotiations are successful is determined by the capacity to bargain by the parties involved as well as the effectiveness of the machinery for implementing the decision reached at the bargaining table. Another factor suggested by Schelling that would be an advantage to any party in any conflict is the availability of relevant information. When information is available and relevant, it is most likely to be of strategic advantage. Also, when information is reliable, it could also be used as a source of power and power •equation within those that are involved in particular conflict. He uses illustrations to show various levels by which rationality can be 54 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY P:p,o>)iuC\. C ‘onjhch. Bargaining end Pcuit B.nldmg in International Relations used in conflict situations. For example, Schelling declares that if a family is separated say in a departmental store, each person might try to figure out where the other is mostly to go. In another situation, he cites the example of two parachutists who are engaged in parachuting. The drops of these competitors are of certain distance from each other. It is claimed they would only do this on the basis of information. When information is available to them, they have to communicate as quickly as possible. He also states that in certain situations, some towns could be involved in competition, using the example of New York and New Haven. These two towns are logically connected by a major bridge. Any calculation dealing with these two towns must necessarily factor in the information that is vital to what the towns represent. Against that backdrop, any bargainer must have all necessary information concerning his own position on his government or institution as well as information about the strengths and weaknesses of the adversary. The bargainer should know when to insist on a particular issue and how best to prevent the adversary from taking his position on a given issue at a particular stage of bargaining and negotiation. In the process of negotiation, information represent important factor among the element of strength of an effective bargainer. Under unusual circumstances, there may be need to inject some distraction into bargaining and negotiation, in order to weaken the position of the adversary or make it impossible to take the advantage of the situation. Thus, the major objective in bargaining, Schelling constantly emphasises, is for each party to make commitments, threats, and promises credible to the other 55 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdo^vu Johnson party, so that the parties will take each other seriously. It is generally to be expected that successful negotiation would be achieved when the alternative course of action represents a higher stake in relation to the course proposed by the adversary. The import of this is that competitors could only bargain effectively from a position of strength, and strength in this regard entails essential resources that constitute the power of a nation, state or an institution. Finally, in determining what model to adopt in handling a conflict situation or in resolving a conflict, the model should take into consideration the basic issues at stake, the historical factors, the social forces, the economic underpinning and the political implication. It is when all these are considered that we can bargain or negotiate effectively. Decision-making Theory Decision-making theory will furnish understanding of the factors that motivate leaders of a country to decide the issue of war and peace as well as alliance and empire, with precision as they did under the circumstances confronting them. Specifically, the main approach to understanding decision making in international politics with a critique of it in the realm of national security will be the focus in this discourse. David Easton has argued that decisions are the outputs of political system by which values are authoritatively allocated within a society. Decision making is simply the act of choosing among available alternatives about which uncertainty exists. The study of how decisions are made first became the subject of systematic investigation in other fields outside of political 56 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY rn • science. Psychologists were interested in the motives underlying an individual’s decisions and why some persons had greater difficulty than others in making decisions. Economists focused on the decisions o f producers, consumers, investors and others whose choices affected the economy. In government and especially in defence planning in the 1960s, a technique known generally as cost effectiveness was utilised in the decision-making process with regard to the acquisition of new weapons (Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff, 1996; 457). In the same vein, decision-making was a focal point for political scientists interested in analysing the decisional behaviour of voters, legislators, executive officials, politicians, leaders of interest groups and other actors in the political arena. However, in the study of foreign policy decision-making, what is considered is not only the chosen course of action (the content of foreign policy) but also at the factors that influence how and why decisions are made (the foreign policy process). Many of the factors that affect the foreign policy menu of states derive from the perceptions and images of individuals in government. The concern in this chapter comprises those things that affect how individuals perceive world politics and how they make foreign policy decisions. Rational Decision-making Foreign policy analysis often involves making judgements regarding good and bad decisions. Graham Allison has identified the essential elements of rational actor model. Faced with a given problem or opportunity, the rational decision-maker first clarifies 57 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson the foreign policy goals of the nation and determines which should take priority over others. National values and priorities provide guidance in the search for the best policy response, a search that adheres to certain decision rules. The rational actor model assumes that the decision maker identifies all options available for achieving the nation’s goals, and then evaluates the consequences of these alternative courses of action. Since alternative courses of action and their consequences involve both benefits and costs, they must be ordered from most little preferred on that basis. In the final analysis, the decision-maker chooses the course of action that ranks highest in this preference ordering. One good illustration for the rational actor model is an individual playing a game, such as chess. In chess, the goal is to trap the opponent’s king. There may be other intermediate objectives, like capturing the opponent’s queen and protecting one’s own, but the ultimate goal is checkmate. At each turn, the player considers his or her alternatives and the consequences of possible moves. The following questions are considered: What are the costs and benefits of each move? Will it position the pieces for checkmate? Will it result in the loss of a pawn, a bishop, the queen? Based on this assessment, the player chooses a move. Whether the decision turns out to be good or bad depends largely on how thoroughly and accurately the player has considered the alternative moves and assessed the risks of each. Essentially, one approach to analysing world politics is to conceptualise an international interaction as a game being played by- two or more players. Alternative courses of action available to each player are seen as possible moves, and the combination of moves made by all players leads to an outcome. Each outcome has payoff 58 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Dip!:' ‘7 Ccnriici>. a1 : Pc cue b.-iid in In ten: an one! Relate ns or utility for each player equal to the sum of all benefits derived from that outcome minus the costs. By using available information about outcomes and their utilities, a player will make the move that maximises utility. Because outcomes are not always certain - they depend on one’s own moves and on the moves of other players, with perhaps an element of chance as well - players also need to estimate the probability of achieving a given outcome. When they take into account the utilities associated with different outcomes and the probabilities of achieving them, they maximise their expected utility. Models of foreign policy that represent the decision-making process in this way are called formal models and, because they rest on assumption of instrumental rationality, they are also called rational choice models. This theory can be applied to game theory in order to predict players’ moves and the most likely outcomes of their interactions. It is also useful in explaining arms race, nuclear deterrence, and trade negotiations. Governmental Decision-making Governments differ in many ways. Most of these differences involve the acquisition, processing, and movement of information. Governments also differ in the types and numbers of their component organisations and institutions, the distribution of influence among them, the numbers and types of personnel in the organisations and institutions, and the societal interests they represent. Some governments centralise power in one institution or group; others distribute governmental power among a number of institutions. Some have strong executives who make foreign 59 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson policy; some have weak executives or executives restricted by other governmental bodies. It has been observed that closed, centralised governments can act more quickly and efficiently with less public input into the process. Others maintain that more open systems can get the most out of their societies and that, although democratic governments work more slowly and less single-mindedly, they produce better foreign policy because they get more diverse and accurate information from society about its capabilities and constraints in the domestic and foreign environments. Generally, how any individual affects a foreign policy decision and its implementation depends on governmental role factors as well as individual factors. We must take into consideration where each person stands in the government (within which organisation, how close to the central decision maker, and the nature of the decision unit). The decision unit is particularly important. A group of scholars has defined the ultimate decision unit as a group of actors who have both the ability to commit resources as well as the power and authority to do so. They also identify three broad types of decision units: a predominant leader, a single group, and multiple autonomous groups (Hermann and Hermann, 1989). There are many examples of predominant leaders (especially in authoritarian systems), among them were Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and Saddam Hussein. Single groups would include the Soviet and Chinese politburos and the British cabinet. In the conduct of American foreign policy, a single group constitutes the ultimate decision unit under certain circumstances; on matters of war and peace, this is usually the National Security Council. 60 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY During the Cuban m issile crisis in 1962, when the Kennedy adm inistration discovered that the Soviet Union had secretly placed m edium -range missiles in Cuba despite assurances that they would not do so, it was K ennedy 's Executive Committee that dealt with the situation. The decision unit changes depending on the type of decision being made. A standard typology distinguishes among crisis decisions, general foreign policy decisions, and administrative decisions. Crisis decisions generally involve a few, very high-level decision makers. A crisis consists of a perceived threat to the decision-makers and their state and a finite time period within which to make a decision. General foreign policy decisions set out future foreign policy, looking at the present and into the near future. While administrative decisions are concerned with very specific situations, they are usually handled by a specific part of the foreign policy bureaucracy. They involve routine situations calling for the application of the expertise and standard operating procedures of foreign policy organisations. Small Group Interaction How an individual behaves within the constraints of his or her role is also affected by the immediate environment of the decision unit. Sociologists and social psychologists studying organisational and group behaviour have found that being a member of a small group can strongly affect both the perceptions and behaviour of the individual. More specifically, there are pressures on the individual to conform to the view of the group and not to challenge it. hi this 61 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY process, the perception of the individual about both the situation and role may be altered to fit the collective view of the group. Basically, the pressure on an individual to conform to small- group views has been examined closely by Irving Janis; he denotes the phenomenon as groupthink. In one of his studies, Janis looked at a number of .American foreign policy decisions, such as the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961, the response to the North Korean invasion of South Korea in 1950, the decision to set up the Marshall Plan, the decision to escalate the war in Vietnam, the decision making about Pearl Harbour before the Japanese attack, and the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Janis sums up his central theme as follows: The more amiability and esprit de corps among the members of a policy-making in-group, the greater is the danger that independent critical thinking will be replaced with group think, which is likely to result in irrational and dehumanizing actions directed against out-groups (Janis, 1984: 13). From the above, it could be stated that groupthink is an important process that generates symptoms of defective decision making, helping analysts to distinguish low-quality from high- quality decision making. In the same vein, groupthink indicates that a close and friendly group will produce an illusion of invulnerability. This feeling is associated with excessive optimism that the courses of action considered by the group will succeed in achieving their foreign policy goals, and thereby encourages risk taking. 62 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Individual Perceptions and Beliefs The needs, desires, and perceptions of individuals have impacts in their foreign policy. As generally-known, people hold images of the world, and these images are not always accurate representation of the real world. The psychological environment affects the way the menu is perceived, just as the other environments do. This requires a few assumptions. The first is that foreign policy is made and implemented by people; we do not see states as monolithic, impersonal creatures that somehow behave on their own. The second assumption is that individuals can make a difference in the foreign policy process of a given state and that the governmental structure as well as the processes of policy-making permits individuals to have an impact on foreign policy. It is necessary to make the point clear that presidents, secretaries of state, prime ministers, foreign ministers, revolutionary leaders, and dictators can strongly influence the foreign policy processes of their own states and other states. For example, as a practising diplomat, Henry Kissinger felt that he had to know and understand the psychological makeup of foreign diplomats and decision makers, which prompted him to request U.S. intelligence sendees draw up psychological profiles of the foreign leaders with whom he negotiated. He also saw individuals as important makers of history. As Kissinger rightly observed: “When you see (history) in practice, you see the differences that the personalities make. The overtures to China would not have worked without Chou En-lai. There would 63 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido'Mt Johnson have been no settlement in the Middle East without Sadat and Golda Meir or Dayan. Anyone doubting the impact that single individuals can have on the workings of foreign policy, relations among states, or even the structure of the international system need only examine the consequences of the policies pursued by Mikhail Gorbachev after his accession to power in 1985. Similarly, the belief systems of foreign policy decision makers generate more specific operational codes (sometimes called schemata or cognitive maps) - mental constructs that help organise knowledge about other actors or situations. In the early 1950s, Nathan Leites reviewed Russian literature and the writings of the Bolsheviks in order to reconstruct the operational code of the Russian Communist leaders. Ole Hosti used a similar approach to analyse the views of John Foster Dulles, Eisenhower’s secretary of state (USA) from 1953 to 1959. He found that two of Dulle’s instrumental beliefs about the conduct of foreign policy were: to avoid conflict when the opponent is strong and take a risk when the opponent is weak. Personality and Physiology There have been many psychological, psychoanalytical, and personality studies of individual foreign policy decision makers, as well as comparative studies of leaders’ psychological profiles and personality characteristics. Studies of Hitler and Stalin’s paranoia were matched in the early Cold War period in the United States with that of James Forrestal, the first secretary of defence, who committed suicide. Extreme personality disturbances are relatively rare among leaders of large bureaucratised organisations like 64 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Hn ! ,1 Inti i r,::noi;zl Relation nation-states, especial!)' under normal conditions where a potential leader has to work the way up through the organisation over a long time. During the times of great social and political upheaval, however, a person with very unusual personality characteristics may achieve power in situations where normal people are unable to cope with social problems. Hitler, for instance, came to powrer in a period of terrible inflation and unemployment in Germany and Stalin, during the upheaval following a revolution and civil war. Moreover, the behaviour of such a leader, especially one entrenched for many years in an authoritarian system, may become much more abnormal over time. In this case, both Hitler and Stalin became even more aberrant after their first decade in power. In the same vein, psycho-biographical analyses of Henry Kissinger have attempted to link his past experience to his personality and style, which in turn affected his behaviour in the foreign policy arena. One observer sees the trauma of Kissinger's boyhood world crumbling about him in Nazi Germany as the main influence. The inner chaos that resulted motivated his search for the strong individual:; even an opponent. Another sees Kissinger’s quest for order as the basis for his quest for power. The picture that emerges is of an active-negative, a man of incredible energy and drive who never succeeded in dispelling unease over the chaos that might recur at any time. Also, studies on Ronald Reagan indicate that from boyhood he found success through an “energetic attack on obstacles in his path and the avoidance of emotional and intellectual ambiguities”. His turn to the political right in the late 1940s “was an adaptation to a personal and political crisis. Anti-communism 65 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson sen;ed certain ego defensive and social adjustment needs for him at a time when his personal and private life had bottomed out”. Perhaps, knowing that foreign policy and foreign policy decisions are products of human behaviour, we ought not to overlook the fact that decision makers are physical beings, influenced by their physiology and possibly by their genetic heritage. On a very simple level, whether information is received and the degree to which it is understood and interpreted depends on the physical ability of the individual. Thus, the physical as well as the mental health of decision makers can affect foreign policy and the decision - making process. The strain of high public office is great: look at before - and - after photographs of almost all U.S. Presidents since World War II. The effect of this strain often breaks down the health of the leader. This is even more important when we remember that many political leaders, particularly the heads of governments and senior ministers, are older individuals and thus even more susceptible to the strains of office. Some remain in office to an advanced age, like Mao Zedong (age eighty-four), Charles de Gaulle (seventy-nine), Ronald Reagan (seventy-seven), and Leonid Brezhnev (seventy-five). The former communist countries seemed particularly susceptible to groups of aged leaders. The average age of the Eastern European leaders in 1989, when communism fell, was seventy-six. None of the Chinese communist leaders who were responsible for the Tiananmen Square attack, also in 1989, were under age seven-five. Finally, a study of the medical histories of twentieth-century political and military leaders indicates an extremely high rate of medical disabilities. These ailments and the drugs and other treatments taken for them have a number of physiological effects on 66 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations individuals that can affect their perception of the world and decision-making procedures. Even common psychoactive drugs like alcohol, caffeine, tranquilisers, and sedatives can affect perceptions and mood without the user being aware of the development. The best example of these effects is the behaviour of British Prime Minister, Anthony Eden, during the Suez crisis of 1956. Eden was ill, suffering from hypertension and nervous disorders. Reports at the time indicated that he was also taking Benzedrine, which imparts a feeling of control and confidence. It was a known fact that Eden’s decision-making behaviour during the crisis differed markedly from the behaviour he had displayed in other situations. He was much more secretive and consulted only a very small group of colleagues. The prime minister suffered a physical breakdown after the crisis. Many American presidents and high-level decision makers have suffered from major physiological problems. Critics of Franklin Roosevelt claim that he was too ill from high blood pressure during the 1945 Yalta Conference to negotiate effectively with Stalin and that he delayed decisions and gave in on issues to speed up the conclusion of gruelling bargaining sessions so that he could rest. Many have suggested that Ronald Reagan’s failing memory allowed the activities that resulted in the Iran - Contra scandal to go unchecked (he was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease after he left office). In this sense, the death of top decision makers or their inability to function can bring the decision-making processes of government to a halt or cause great disruption. 67 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Four Arms Race and Arms Control This chapter begins with a brief overview of what led to anns race. However, modelling tradition of some scholarly analysis of arms race will be examined, beginning with Lewis Fry Richardson. Another salient point to know is the role of military spending in macro-economic models used for policy. Basically, the superpower rivalry within the context of arms race will also be examined. Other issues to be discussed include nuclear proliferation and strategic measures of controlling them. The first question that arises in international relations is why do countries arm? A simple explanation, known as the action- reaction hypothesis - is that states acquire arms in response to the arms acquisition of their adversaries. In the same vein, an arms race is not easy to define. Certainly not every arms increase in every dyad of nations constitutes an arms race. There must be a reaction process involving two states that are capable of harming each other. Lewis F. Richardson, the most influential theorist of the arms acquisition process, points to the “very strong motive of fear, which moves each group to increase its armaments because of the existence of those of the opposing group”. When both sides are ensnared in the process, it denotes the making of an arms race. In the early Cold War years, it seemed to many Americans that the action-reaction phenomenon was one-way: the United States was reacting to Soviet militarisation (and other forms of aggressive behaviour). However, when the period of isolation under Stalin drew to a close and Soviet and U.S. scientists began to make UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LI RARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations contact with each other, it became apparent that Soviet citizens typically held the mirror image of the American perspective -they saw the Soviet Union as simply reacting to American threat. This led to a more general understanding that in the real sense each side was reacting to the other and that it was extraordinarily difficult to sort out particular causes, especially once the action-reaction process was underway. r . s R ic h a r d s o n ’s R e a c tio n P r o c e s s Before examining arms race in relation to super power rivalry, it is very important to briefly analyse Richardson’s reaction process. Richardson sought to analyse the armaments-acquisition policies of two rival parties within the framework of a mutual stimulus, which is response or action reaction model. Richardson put forth a purely theoretical model of the way two rival states interact in terms of military expenditure. A country is stimulated by another’s arms accumulation, and what the former does by way of reaction serves as a further stimulus to the latter, but each country is constrained by the total amount of its own arms and the effects of an increase of armaments on its economy. Like all purely theoretical models, it is a highly simplified one in which the only two variables are the unique geostrategic requirements of each party, the military preparedness or vulnerability of allied countries, and whether the rivals are pursuing initiative - aggressive or reactive - defensive policies. According to Richardson, the interactive process can be either stable or unstable. Essentially, what Richardson model depicts is that if two rivals are engaged in an unbridled and constantly escalating amis 69 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ldowu Johnson race, they are interacting in this one dimension in a tension- increasing manner, and this may indicate that they will end up at war sooner or later unless they alter their course of action. The only flaw in his equation (model) is that it cannot predict when tension gets to the breaking point. Even the data for the period prior to World War I do not prove that the war originated from arms race though it was one of the several contributing factors. More importantly, no simplified mathematical model can take into account the great variety of factors that affect the course of international relations and modify the action-reaction process, perhaps leading one party to change more rapidly than the other. Also, it can make one to misinterpret what the other is doing and react in a manner contrary to the model. This is another shortcoming not only of Richardson model but also all single-factor explanations. It is difficult to say how many there have been in this century. Thus, Richardson was interested only in three arm races - before 1914, before 1939, and after 1945. N u c le a r A r m s R a c e betyveen th e U n ite d S ta te s a n d th e S o v ie t U n io n in H is to r ic a l P e r s p e c tiv e Let us examine the evolution of the nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. An attempt to understand how the world entered, endured, and survived the era of superpower nuclear confrontation forms the basis of our analysis. The following periods are very crucial to our understanding: 70 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Dif lornac), Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations j' Period o f U.S. Nuclear Monopoly: 1945-1950 After World War II, the United States and. to a lesser degree, the Soviet Union both disarmed from the high levels achieved during the war. The atomic bomb was the central element in America’s policy of deterrence. Although the Soviet Union retained large land forces (which could have threatened Western Europe), for all practical purposes, the Soviets had no atomic weapons. They exploded their first bomb in 1949, but it was several years before they built up a stockpile adequate for fighting a war and, in any case, they lacked intercontinental bombers capable of reaching the United States. 2. P e r io d o f U .S . N u c le a r D o m in a n c e : 1 9 5 1 -1 9 5 7 It was the culmination of a series of threatening incidents in the emerging Cold War, the communist takeover of Czechoslovakia and the Berlin blockade in 1948, a communist victory in China, and the Soviet atomic bomb explosion in 1949. The Korean War (which began in June 1950) initiated a great American programme of rearmament, during which annual U.S. defence expenditure nearly tripled. U.S. secretary of state John Foster Dulles declared that the United States would respond to any further communist attack on “free world” nations “in a manner and at a place of our own choosing”. In other words, in the face of any such proxy war, the United States would feel free to strike not at the small communist ally but directly at the Soviet Union, in “massive retaliation” with nuclear weapons. The threat was credible because the United States had built up a very large stockpile of nuclear 71 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson weapons, including the hydrogen bomb (first tested by the United States in 1952 and by the Soviets in 1953), and an intercontinental bombing force to deliver them. The ability to inflict damage was so greatly in favour of the United States (which also maintained bases in Europe and Asia quite near the USSR) that this era is described as the period of American strategic dominance. 3. Period o f U.S. Preponderance: 1958-1966 The U.S. dominance over the Soviet Union faded from 1958 to 1966; a better term to describe American superiority is simply preponderance. Still, it was a period when the U.S. could at least consider the option of attacking the Soviet Union with nuclear weapons in response to a proxy war started by a Soviet ally. The U. S. still had a first - strike capability in that it could hit the Soviet Union first and limit the Soviet ability to retaliate to acceptable levels. In 1957, the Soviet Union became the first country to put a satellite into orbit around the earth, indicating that the USSR had perfected very large rockets that could also be used as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) - the delivery vehicles for nuclear and thermonuclear bombs. Against this background, the United States feared that the Soviets might achieve a first-strike capability - that they would build enough ICBMs to attack and destroy the bombers on which the United States relied for deterrence. This led to a new crash programme of development and deployment of American land - and sea-based ICBMs. American preponderance was maintained, although the Soviet Union was increasingly developing a capability to do much damage to the United States, in retaliation if not in a first strike. 72 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining end Pcuci Building m International Relation! Partly to remedy this imbalance, in 1962 the Soviets stationed a variety of nuclear-armed missiles and bombers in Cuba, precipitating the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962. During the thirteen-day crisis, President Kennedy made it clear that the United States was prepared to launch a nuclear first strike against the forces in Cuba and perhaps against the Soviet Union if those missiles were not removed. Because the United States had an overall nuclear preponderance (as well as local non-nuclear superiority in the Caribbean, an area of vital importance to the U.S.), the Soviet leaders believed the American counter threat and withdrew their missiles and aircraft. However, in reaction to this public demonstration of their weakness, the Soviet leaders began a new programme of strategic armament, revealed in steadily expanding stockpile of nuclear warheads and rising levels of military expenditure after 1965. 4. P e r io d o f E s s e n tia l E q u iv a le n c e : 1 9 8 7 to E n d o f C o ld W ar From 1956 to 1975, the United States was deeply involved in another long, painful, and costly land war in Asia, this time in Vietnam, during which American military expenditure climbed to new heights. By 1973, in reaction to the war, American military expenditure dropped below the pre-Vietnam level and remained there until 1977, then resumed a slow climb. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union maintained its military build up in conventional as well as nuclear arms. By the 1970s, it was spending about the same as the United States on its military. Also, the Soviet Union was keeping up with the United States in the expansion of strategic nuclear warheads, and possessed more nuclear launchers. 73 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson Most observers characterise this period as one of essential equivalence when all elements of strategic weapons are taken into account. Through the mid-1960s, the United States maintained a clear quantitative (and qualitative) superiority in all classes of strategic delivery vehicles: ICBMs (land based missiles like the Minuteman), SLBMs (submarine-launched ballistic missiles, like the Trident), and long-range bombers, like the B-52. By the 1970s, however, the Soviet Union had developed very large rockets and warheads and surpassed the United States in the number of ICBMs. The result was a situation in which neither side could attack the other without suffering significant damage from the opponent’s retaliation. This gave the United States and the Soviet Union the capability of mutual assured destruction, abbreviated as MAD. It means that each side possessed a second-strike capability: the capacity to absorb an enemy attack and have enough weapons remaining to retaliate and inflict unacceptable damage on the opponent. Thus, no matter how the size of nuclear arsenals was measured, to all intents and purposes, neither side could win a nuclear war. 5. P e r i o d o f S t r a te g ic D e b a te : E n d o f th e C o ld W a r to th e P r e s e n t With the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the USSR, the strategic rivalry basically collapsed. As the result of arms control agreements (to be discussed later), the United States and Russia are near strategic nuclear parity, both in terms of warheads and delivery vehicles and at levels much below their peaks in the mid to late 1980s. N u c l e a r P r o l i f e r a t io n 74 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Nuclear or weapons proliferation refers to the increase in the number of states (and potentially non-state actors) that possess a certain class of weaponry. The proliferation of nuclear weapons involves a number of dangers. One concern is the acquisition by governments of the material and know-how needed to make nuclear bombs. New nuclear powers, which would likely include a number of aggressive authoritarian states, will lack the experience of existing nuclear powers in controlling the use of such weapons and will lack the resources to manage the elaborate command and control capabilities required. This is especially true of the developing countries. Also, many of these governments will be involved in serious local conflicts, which increase the pressures to use such weapons in warfare. Because both India and Pakistan conducted a series of nuclear weapons tests in 1998, fear has been expressed in many quarters that their long-running conflict over Kashmir might ignite the world’s first nuclear war. Nuclear arms are not the only weapons of mass destruction. Stemming the proliferation of chemical weapons also presents a major challenge because some can be assembled with widely- available chemical agents and commercial equipment. Easily- produced and potentially very destructive, they have been called the poor man’s atomic bomb. Chemical agents, like tear gas, are commonly used in riot control, but those used in chemical warfare are more nefarious, attacking the body’s nervous system, blood, skin or lungs. Another nuclear ami is biological weapons; which have acquired a sinister reputation for their capacity to produce potentially frightening effects at low cost. Biological agents consist 75 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson of living organisms (bacteria and fungi, and viruses) as well as the toxins derived from them that cause disease and death to humans and livestock, or destruction to agricultural crops. It is important to note that the use of biological weapons during warfare has been less frequent, or at least less blatant, than the use of chemical weapons. It is notable also the early history of human warfare includes accounts of biological agents introduced into drinking water and food supplies. A r m s C o n tr o l a n d D is a r m a m e n t It is very important to emphasise that the terms arms control and disarmament are often used interchangeably but they are not synonymous. Arms control refers to agreements designed to regulate arms levels either by limiting their growth or by restricting how they may be used. This is a far more common and less ambitious endeavour than disarmament, which aims to reduce or eliminate weapons. Similarly, it is necessary to differentiate between bilateral and multilateral agreements. Bilateral agreements involve only two countries, and they are often easier to negotiate and to enforce than multilateral agreements which are agreements among three or more countries. As a result, bilateral arms agreements tend to be more successful than multilateral agreements. The most revealing examples are the superpower agreements to control nuclear weapons. The Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States never degenerated into a trial of military strength. One of the reasons was the series of more than 25 arms control agreements Moscow and Washington negotiated in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Beginning with the 1963 Hot 76 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining end Peace Building in International Relations Line Agreement, which established a direct radio and telegraph communications system between the two governments, Soviet and .American leaders reached a series of modest agreements aimed at stabilising the military balance and reducing the risk of war. Each of these bilateral treaties lowered tensions and helped build a climate of trust that encouraged efforts to negotiate further agreements. Perhaps the most important agreements between the superpowers were the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) of 1972 and 1979; the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) of 1991, 1993, and 1977; and the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) of 2002. The first two agreements stabilised the nuclear arms race, and the remaining agreements reduced the weapons in each side’s inventory. It is instructive to note that when the Cold War ended in 1991, the United States had more than 9,500 nuclear warheads and Russia had about 8,000. However, the January 1993 agreement pledged to cut their combined arsenals to about 6,500. Even more dramatically, this agreement also limited the kinds of weapons each country could possess. Under its terms, Russia and the United States gave up all the Multiple Independently targeted Vehicles (MIRVs) on their land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and reduced submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) warheads to no more than 1,750. The next major step occurred in May 2002 when President George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin signed the SORT. This brief document pledged the two countries to cut their combined number of strategic nuclear warheads by two-thirds over the next ten years. In addition, the treaty contained no requirement to destroy warheads taken out of service, and permitted either side to withdraw from the 77 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ldov. u Johnson agreement with three months’ notice by citing “a supreme national interest”. Hence, while this treaty signalled a step towards nuclear disarmament, it is regarded as mostly symbolic in importance. Having said this, the success recently achieved by Russia and the United States inspires hope that negotiations can be expanded to include other states. In addition, nearly 30 major multilateral agreements have been signed since the Second World War. Outstanding among these was, the 1968 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibited the transfer of nuclear weapons and production technologies to non-nuclear weapons states. This 2,400 word compact, which some credit for saving the world, is historically the most symbolic multilateral arms control agreement, with 189 signatory countries. Like many of the arms control treaties, however, a number of key nuclear states and threshold non-nuclear states (i.e. states that probably have or could quickly assemble nuclear weapons) remain outside the treaty, including India, Israel, Pakistan and Brazil. Similar problems plague other multilateral agreements. The 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), for example, required all stockpiles of chemical weapons to be destroyed within ten years. However, the agreement lost some of its authority in 2001 when the Bush administration refused to accept the enforcement measures. This erosion of support for arms control caused the UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan to warn that “much of the established multilateral disarmament machinery has started to rust”. However, liberals place their faith in international institutions like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor adherence to such limited disarmament schemes. 78 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Table 2: Arms Control Agreements Since 1959 Signed Agreement Provisions Signatories 1959 Antarctic Prohibits all military activities in 45 Treaty the Antarctic area. 1963 Partial Test Prohibits nuclear explosions in 134 Ban Treaty the atmosphere, outer space, and underwater. 1967 Outer Space Prohibits all military activities in 116 Treaty outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies. 1967 Latin America Prohibits Latin American 33 Nuclear-free countries from acquiring, Zone Treaty manufacturing, testing, using, or stationing nuclear weapons. 1968 Non- Prohibits acquisition of nuclear 189 Proliferation weapons by nonnuclear nations. Treaty 1971 Seabed Arms Prohibits emplacement of nuclear 113 Control Treaty weapons and other weapons of mass destruction on the ocean floor or its subsoil. 1972 Biological Prohibits development, 167 Weapons production, and stockpiling of Convention biological agents and toxins intended for hostile use, and requires destruction of existing stocks. 1977 Environmental Prohibits manipulation of the 85 Modification dynamics, composition or Convention structure of the earth, including its atmosphere, and of outer space for military or other hostile purposes. 1979 Celestial Prohibits military deployments on 16 Bodies or around the moon and other Agreement celestial bodies. 79 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnsoi: 1980 Nuclear Establishes guidelines for 50 Material international transport of nuclear Convention material and the protection, recovery, and turn of stolen nuclear material. 1981 Certain Prohibits and restricts use of 104 Conventional excessively injurious and Weapons indiscriminate conventional Convention weapons. 1985 South Pacific Prohibits countries and territories 13 Nuclear Free of the South Pacific from Zone Treaty acquiring, manufacturing, testing, using, or stationing nuclear weapons. 1986 Confidence and Requires advance notification of 54 Security- large-scale military activities in Building Europe (Stockholm Document). measures in Updated provisions are in the Europe Vienna Document of 1994. 1987 Missile Seeks to restrict the export of Technology ballistic missiles, space launch Control vehicles, unmanned air vehicles, Regime and related technologies. 1990 Conventional Reduces NATO and Warsaw Pact Armed Forces forces in the Atlantic-to-Urals in Europe region. (Former Soviet states Treaty agree to USSR obligations in 1992 Tashkent Agreement). 1992 Open Skies Allows a quota of over flights of Treaty the parties’ territory for purposes of observing military activities. 8 0 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations 1 9 9 3 C h e m i c a l P r o h i b i t s d e v e l o p m e n t , W e a p o n s p r o d u c t i o n , a n d s t o c k p i l i n g o f C o n v e n t i o n t o x i c c h e m i c a l s i n t e n d e d f o r h o s t i l e u s e , a n d r e q u i r e s d e s t r u c t i o n o f e x i s t i n g s t o c k s b y 2 0 0 7 . 1 9 9 5 Southeast Prohibits Southeast Asian Asian Nuclear countries from acquiring, Weapon Free manufacture, testing, using, or Zone stationing nuclear weapons. 1996 Wassenaar Seeks to restrict the export of Arrangement conventional weapons and dual- on Export use equipment, and their Controls production technologies. 1996 Comprehensive Prohibits all nuclear explosions, Test Ban including those intended for Treaty peaceful purposes. 1996 African Prohibits African countries from Nuclear acquiring, manufacturing, testing, Weapon Free using, or stationing nuclear Zone Treaty weapons. 1997 Inter-American Prevents the production and Convention on transhipment of illicit weapons Illicit Arms and other dangerous materials by Western hemispheric countries. 1997 Anti-Personnel Prohibits production, stockpiling, Mine and using anti-personnel mines, Convention and requires destruction of existing stocks. Sources: UN Department for Disarmament Affairs, “Multilateral Arms Regulation and Disarmament Agreements”, available at http://disarmament.un.org/TreatyStatus.nsf.Signatories are the number of states that have signed and/or ratified the agreement. 81 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY hiowu Johnson The Problematic Future of Anns Control and Disarmament The obstacles to amis control and disarmament are formidable. Critics complain that these agreements frequently regulate obsolete armaments or those the parties to the agreement have little incentive for developing in the first place. Even when agreements are reached on modem, sophisticated weapons, the parties often set ceilings higher than the number of weapons currently deployed, so they do not have to slash their inventories. Another factor is the propensity of limits on one type of weapon system to prompt developments in another system. An example can be seen in the 1972 SALT I agreement, which limited the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles possessed by the United States and Soviet Union. Although the number of missiles was restricted, no limits were placed on the number of nuclear warheads that could be placed on each missile. Consequently, both sides developed Multiple Independently targeted Vehicles (MIRVs). In short, the quantitative freeze on launchers led to qualitative improvement in their warhead-delivery systems. Also reducing faith in future meaningful arms control is the slow, weak, and ineffective ability of the global community to ban some of the most dangerous and counter-productive weapons. Consider the case of anti-personnel landmines (APLs), which cannot discriminate between soldiers and civilians. More than 100 to 300 million landmines are believed to be scattered on the territories of more than 70 countries (with another 100 million in stockpiles). It is estimated that about one mine exists for every 50 people in the world and that, each year, mines kill or maim more than 26,000 people - almost all of them civilians. Thus, the 82 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and 1’cace Budding in International Relations challenge of enforcing the ban, now signed by 152 states, and the task of removing APLs, remain staggering. The final problem facing those advocating arms control and disarmament is continuous innovation. By the time limits are negotiated on one type of weapon, a new generation of weapons has emerged. As a matter of fact, modem technology is creating an ever-widening range of novel weapons - increasingly deadlier, smaller and easier to conceal. 83 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Five Security Dilemma and International Cooperation The idea of forming international security forces to replace national military forces is to ensure international peace through military cooperation among states. In this chapter, the concept of collective security will be examined. The theory that guides collective security will also be treated. Students are expected to understand why states engage in international cooperation through collective security. In addition, the UN idea of collective security will be analysed, thereafter; regionally-based collective security will be considered. Examples will be taken from North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG). The fundamental principle underlying contemporary interstate relations - sovereignty- helps to explain the driving forces behind arms acquisition and arms race as well as the difficulties associated with arms control. Sovereignty means that states exist in an anarchic environment. No legitimate or legal authority is empowered to control, direct, or watch over the behaviour of sovereign states. One consequence of such system of sovereign state is that the state must, in the end, look out for its own security, protection and survival. From the foregoing, self-help in the international system means that each state must take measures to provide for its own defence. A tragic flaw of the anarchic state system is that the requirement for self-help often leads to security dilemma. In this UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, 0 argaming and Peace Building in International Relations sense, the security dilemma is central to many aspects of interstate relations besides ami races, and analogous forms of competitive state behaviour appear in international political economy in addition, as we shall see in subsequent discussion. Collective Security and Regional Arrangements Collective security has been commonly regarded as the most promising of all the approaches to peace. It seeks to confront would-be aggressors with the concerted power of states determined to keep the peace. Since the World War II, the concept of collective security has been persistently advocated and attacked, defended and criticised. It has figured prominently in the theoretical and ideological debate concerning the management of international relations. Although it appears to be simple and, almost self- explanatory, the concept is in reality a complex and elusive one. It has been defined by George Schwarzenberger as “machinery for joint action in order to prevent or counter any attack against an established international order”. It clearly implies collective measures for dealing with threats to peace. Basically, collective security implies far-reaching commitments and obligations on the part of the majority of the states of the world, including all or at least most of the great powers. It is clearly incompatible with neutrality and with a balance of power policy, except under most unusual conditions of balanced stability over a period of time. To be sure, collective security and a balance of power policy are incompatible because the object of the one is to align all other states against an offending or 85 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowv Johnson war-making state whereas the other contemplates the maintenance of equilibrium of power that no stale will dare undertake a resort to arms. The substance of the first is a world front against a possible aggressor; the substance of the second is two approximately equal and opposing fronts. Collective security also implies a far greater degree of systematisation than does balance of power. For collective security system to be effective, it must be strong enough to cope with aggression from any power or combination of powers, and it must be invoked if and as aggression occurs. The principle of collective security requires that states identify their national interest so completely with the preservation of the total world order that they stand ready to join the collective action to put down any aggressive threat by any state against any other state anywhere. Thus, it involves a willingness to apply sanctions as and when necessary, and even to go to war. If the UN reflects lack of shared values and common purpose characteristic of a global community, perhaps regional organisations, whose members already share some interests and cultural traditions, offer better prospects. The kinds of wars raging today do not lead themselves to control by a worldwide body because these conflicts are almost entirely civil wars. The UN was designed to manage only international wars between states; it was not organised or authorised to intervene in internal battles within sovereign borders. This, however, is not the case for regional institutions. Regional intergovernmental organisations see their security interests vitally affected by armed conflicts within countries in their area or adjacent to it, and historically they have shown the determination and discipline to police bitter civil conflicts in their backyard. We shall consider some of these 86 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY / I . regional security organisations within the context of collective security. North Atlantic Treat}' Organisation (NATO) The NATO is the best known regional security organisation. NATO encompasses Western Europe and North America. Using GDP as a measure of power, the 28 NATO members possess nearly half the world total. Members are the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Denmark, Norway, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, and Croatia. At NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, military staff from the member countries coordinate plans and periodically direct exercises in the field. The NATO supreme commander has always been a U.S. general. In NATO, each state contributes military units; with its own national culture, language, and equipment specifications. NATO was founded in 1949 to oppose and deter Soviet power in Europe. Its counterpart in Eastern Europe during the Cold War, the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact, was founded in 1955 and was disbanded in 1991. During the Cold War, the U.S. maintained more than 300,000 troops in Europe, with advanced planes, tanks and other equipment. After the Cold War, these forces were cut to about 100,000. But NATO stayed together because its members believed that NATO provided useful stability even though its mission was unclear. Article V, considered the heart of NATO, asks members to come to the defence of another member under 87 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ldov-'u Johnson attack. It was envisioned as a U.S. commitment to defend Western Europe against the Soviet Union; instead, it was activated for the first time when Europe came to the defence of the United States after the terrorist attack in 2001. The biggest issue for NATO is its recent eastward expansion, beyond the East-West Cold War dividing line. In 1999, former Soviet-bloc countries Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary joined the alliance. Joining in 2004 were Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria. In 2009, Albania and Croatia secured membership of NATO. Making the new members" militaries' compatible with NATO was a major undertaking, requiring increased military spending by existing and new NATO members. NATO expansion was justified as both a way to solidify new democracies and protection against possible future Russian aggression. Other Regional Organizations in Europe The overlapping membership in Europe’s major international organisations illustrates the obstacles to the maintenance of peace through regional organisations because in that region their institutional development has been most rapid. Since World War II, Europe has built, in a series of steps, an increasing number of economic, political and military organisations encompassing more and more countries throughout an enlarged geographic network of institutions. The overlapping architecture includes: Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Council of Europe, and the EU defence organisations. 88 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations African Union and Collective Security At the turn of the century, the 53-member organisation of African Unity, an international organisation with limited power, reformed as the African Union (AU), a stronger organisation with a continent­ wide, central bank, and court. The African Union’s first real test came with allegations of genocide in the Darfur region of Sudan in 2004. In response, the AU deployed 3,000 troops, but their effectiveness was limited. However, the AU’s new security regime is predicated on collective security to be operationalised by an African standby force (ASF), an early warning system (EWS), a panel of the wise (PW), and a peace fund (PF). The core peace and security decision­ making institutions include the Assembly of Heads of State and Governments (AHSG), the Peace and Security Council (PSC), and the Commission of the AU. Although the AHSG makes the final decision on important peace and security issues such as the intervention in member states of the AU, the PSC, which will meet regularly at the permanent representative level, is empowered to take most decisions on security issues on behalf of the AHSG. The AHSG will, however, meet at least once a year to review the work and activities of the PSC as part of its oversight of the AU. According to the AU’s policy framework for the establishment of the ASF, drafted in May 2003, it comprises a system of five regionally-managed multidisciplinary contingents of 3,000-4,000 troops and between 300 and 500 military observers, police units and civilian specialists on standby in their countries of origin. These regional standby brigades will be placed under the 89 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson operational control of the AU or the UN once deployed. The standby force is authorised to ensase in the observation and monitoring of ceasefires; peace support missions; the intervention of member states to restore peace and security; preventive deployment to prevent conflict from spreading or escalating or to prevent the resurgence of violence after parties to a conflict have reached an agreement; peacebuilding, especially disarmament and demobilisation; and promotion of humanitarian assistance. Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) Having no instrument to guide its involvement in what was perceived by some, including some members of ECOWAS itself, as an internal matter, ECOWAS established a five-member standing mediation committee in May 1990, tasked to mediate in the Liberian and future conflicts in the sub region. This was a pioneering move in an organisation whose mandate on formation in 1975 did not include peacekeeping and mediation. The ECOWAS community’s intervention force is composed of standby multipurpose modules from member states, ready for immediate deployment. According to article 22 of the Mechanism’s protocol, ECOMOG can be responsible for the following missions: observation and monitoring, peacekeeping and restoration of peace; humanitarian intervention; enforcement of sanctions, including embargoes; preventive deployment; peace­ building, disarmament and demobilisation; and policing activities, including the control of fraud and organised crime. Through its collective security strategy, ECOMOG has succeeded in restoring peace in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Cote d’Ivoire. 90 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining ana Peace Building m International Relations Alliances Alliances have long been an important aspect of international relations. Students are to put into consideration how states respond to threats and the role of alliances in their calculus of security needs. The following questions are expected to be answered: Do state attempts to find allies in an effort to achieve a balance against the party threatening them? Do threatened states seek an accommodation with the power that poses the threat? Central to the concept of alliance is balance of power. What constitutes balance of power in international politics? Answer to all the questions above will help students of international relations to understand alliances. The Meaning of Alliances Alliances are usually formed when two or more states face a common security threat. Thus, alliances are formal agreements among states to coordinate their behaviour by heeding realism’s first rule of statecraft which is to increase military capabilities. By acquiring allies, state increases their mutual armaments, which, when facing a common threat, provides them with the means of reducing their probability of being attacked (deterrence) or obtaining greater strength in case of attack (defence), while precluding their allies from alliance with the enemy. Purposes of Alliances Alliances generally have the purpose of augmenting their member’s power by pooling capabilities. For smaller states, alliances can be 91 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson their most important power element, and for great powers, the structure of alliances shapes the configuration of power in the system. Most alliances form in response to a perceived threat. When a state’s power grows and threatens its rivals, the latter often form an alliance to limit that power. This happened to Iraq when it invaded Kuwait in 1990, as it had to Hitler’s Germany in the 1940s and to Napoleon’s France in the 1800s. It is important to note that the greatest risk to forming alliances is that they bind a state to a commitment that may later become disadvantageous. Because conditions are certain to change sooner or later and the usefulness of all alliances is certain to change once the common threat that brought the allies together declines, the realist tradition advises states not to take a fixed position on temporary convergences of national interests and instead to forge alliances only to deal with immediate threats. When considering whether a new alliance is a rational choice in which the benefits outweigh the costs, heads of state usually recognise that allies can easily do more harm than good. However, many realists advise states against forming alliances for defence, basing their fears on five fundamental flaws: 1. Alliances enable aggressive states to combine military capabilities for war. 2. Alliances threaten enemies and provoke the creation of courter alliances, which reduces the security for both coalitions. 3. Alliance formation may draw otherwise neutral parties into opposed coalitions. 4. Once states join forces, they must control the behaviour of their own allies to discourage each member from reckless 92 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building m International Relations aggression against its enemies, which would undermine the security of the alliance’s other members. 5. The possibility always exists that ally might become enemy. In a 1917 address to the U.S. Senate, President Woodrow Wilson proposed that “all nations avoid entangling alliances which would draw them into ... a net of intrigue and selfish rivalry”. As a substitute for alliances and counter alliances, Wilson advocated the idea of collective security, which would repel aggression by any state through a response from all other states orchestrated by multilateral institution. Thus, collective security is a global or regional security regime agreed to by the great power, setting rules for keeping peace, guided by the principle that an act of aggression by any state automatically will be met by a combined military response from the rest. In taking this position, which reflected Wilson’s liberal belief that alliances and secret diplomacy transform limited conflicts into global wars with many participants, he underscored the difficulties and the dangers of making alliance decisions. Despite their uncertain usefulness, many states over time have chosen to ally because, the risks notwithstanding, the perceived benefits to security in a time of threat justified that decision. To best picture how alliances affect global security, it is instructive to move from the state level of analysis, which views alliance decisions from the perspective of an individual state’s security, to the global level of analysis by looking at the impact of alliances on the frequency of interstate war. This view focuses 93 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ldo^ii Johnson attention on the possible contribution of alliance formation to maintaining the balance of power. Balance of Power Balance of power is a concept within the realm of international relations, stretching back centuries in both theory and practice and remaining among the prevalent topics of debate within contemporary political science. These centuries of historical perspective and scholarship, however, have served only to intensify the debate over the merits of balance of power. There are many ways in which the term balance of power has been used in theory or practice (see Vasquez and Elman, 2003 and Claude, 1989) and this variety of approaches to the concept demonstrates that the term is used so freely as to potentially confuse rather than clarify its meaning. Despite this diversity, however, nearly all of these definitions centre on the same general principles and assumptions and boil down to the central assertion that nation­ states will ally with one another in order to create equality of capabilities between opposing alliances that serves to preserve peace in international level. At the core of nearly all the various meanings of balance of power is the idea that national security is enhanced when military capabilities are distributed so that no state is strong enough to dominate others. If one state gains in ordinate power, balance of power theory predicts that it will take advantage of its strength and attack weaker neighbours, thereby giving compelling incentive for those threatened to unite in a defensive coalition. According to the theory, the threatened states’ combined military strength would deter (or, if need be, defeat) the state harbouring expansionist aims. Thus, for realists, laissez-faire competition among states striving to 94 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Pip,'om en. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in Internationa! Relations maximise their national power yields an international equilibrium, ensuring everyone’s survival by checking hegemonic ambitions. Balance-of-power theory is also founded on the realist premise that weakness invites attack and that countervailing power guides every state’s actions. It follows that all countries are potential adversaries and that each must strengthen its military capability to protect itself. Invariably, this reasoning rationalises the quest for military superiority, because others pursue it as well. The reasons spring from the realist position that a system revolving around suspicion, competition, and anarchy will breed caution while uncertainty creates restraints on the initiation of war. How? Because when all states are independent and, as sovereign actors, free to make rational choices designed to protect their national security interests in a climate of fear and mistrust, they have powerful incentives to realign and form coalitions that would lead to an approximately even distribution of power. Similarly, a free-floating security regime underlying balance-of-power dynamics could curtail the natural temptation of any great power to imperialistically attempt to conquer others. In classic balance-of-power theory, fear of a third party encourages alignments, because those threatened need help to offset the power of the common adversary. In this sense, an alliance would add the ally’s power to the state’s own and deny the addition of that power to the enemy. As alliances combine power, the offsetting coalitions would not give a clear advantage. Therefore, aggression would appear unattractive and would be averted. 9 5 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson Rules in the Balancing Process Although balancing is occasionally described as an automatic, self- adjusting process, most realists see it as the result of deliberate actions undertaken by national leaders to maintain equilibrium among states. They see the balancing of power as being produced by adherence to rules of action and reaction that states must follow. Various theorists have attempted to specify rules that must be heeded for the balancing process to function effectively. These rules include: 1. Being vigilant by constantly watching foreign developments to identify emerging threats and opportunities. 2. Seeking allies whenever a state cannot match the armaments of your adversary. 3. Remaining flexible in making alliances, i.e. forming and dissolving alliances according to the strategic needs of the moment, thus alliances must be made without regard to similarities of culture or ideological beliefs. 4. Opposing any state that seeks hegemony. The purpose of engaging in balancing-of-power politics is to survive in a world of potentially-dangerous powers. If any state achieves absolute mastery over everyone else, it will be able to act freely. Under such circumstances, the territorial integrity and political autonomy of other states will be in jeopardy. By joining forces with the weaker side to prevent the stronger side from reaching preponderance, states can preserve their independence. 5. Being moderate in victory. In the event of war, the winning side should not eliminate the defeated. Looking forward 9 6 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Budding in International Relations rather than backward, it should do as little damage as possible to those it has vanquished because yesterday’s enemy may be needed as tomorrow’s ally. More importantly, these prescriptions urge states to check the ambition of anyone who threatens to amass overwhelming power, because aspiring hegemons are potential threats to everyone. Human beings and states according to the realists are by nature selfish, but balancing rival interests stabilises their interactions. Difficulties with Balance - of - Power System Can balancing power further world order, as most realists believe? Critics of balance-of-power theory raise several objections to the proposition that balancing promotes peace. Firstly, scholars argue that the theory’s rules for behaviour are contradictory. On one hand, states are urged to increase their power. On the other hand, they are told to oppose anyone seeking preponderance. Yet band-wagoning with (rather than balancing against) the dominant state can increase a weaker country’s capabilities by allowing it to share in the spoils of future victory. History suggests that states that are most content with the status quo tend to balance against rising powers more than do dissatisfied states. Secondly is an objection to balance-of-power theory assumptions that policymakers possess accurate, timely information about other states. As it has been observed power is an ambiguous concept. Tangible factors, such as the performance capabilities of the different types of weapons found in an adversary’s inventory, are hard to compare. In the same way, intangible factors, such as leadership skills, troop morale, or public support for aggressive 97 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY JrfO'i u 'onnson foreign policies, are even more difficult to gauge. Without a precise measure of relative strength, how can policymakers know when power is becoming unbalanced? Moreover, in an environment of secret alliances, how can they be sure who is really in league with whom? An ally who is being counted on to balance the power of an opponent may have secretly agreed to remain neutral in the event of a showdown. Consequently, the actual distribution of power may not resemble the constructed distribution imagined by one side or the other. Finally, many people object to balance-of-power theory because it has not been effective. If the theory’s assumptions are correct, historical periods during which its rules were followed should also have been periods in which war was less frequent. Yet a striking feature of those periods is their record of warfare. Since the 1648 Peace of Westphalia created the global system of independent territorial states, the great powers have participated in a series of increasingly-destructive general wars that threatened to engulf and destroy the multistate system. Thus, it is difficult to consider these wars as anything other than catastrophic failures, total collapse of the balance-of-power system. They are hard to be classed as stabilising manoeuvres or equilibrating processes, and one cannot take seriously any claim of maintaining international stability that does not entail the prevention of such disasters (Claude, 1989). Indeed, historical record has led some theorists to construct hegemonic stability theory as an alternative to the balance of power. This theory postulates that a single, dominant hegemon can guarantee peace better than military parity among competing great powers. 9 8 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Six Diplomacy Diplomacy has been the means through which states carry out relations in the international system. Diplomacy has moved from the traditional to contemporary. Traditional diplomacy goes back to the period of the Greek city states, the pre-colonial states in Africa and the period usually referred to as the classical age. Diplomacy during these periods operated among few political units. In the traditional state system, diplomacy was conducted through the ambassador or a message carrier. This was usually an honoured citizen gifted with the power of speech, who could persuade and convince people who are difficult to convince. They served as envoys to persuade other countries to agree to certain conditions, either regarding trade or war, or any form of association with their own countries. This type of system operated in the past within the Greek city state, the Chinese and the African systems. Modem or contemporary diplomacy involves seasoned diplomats who are professionally-trained. They choose to be diplomats on their own and are versed in the complexities of modem politics. Their status and situations have become institutionalised and they are no longer occasional participants in the international system. Unlike those who practised diplomacy in the past, contemporary diplomats have formalised rules. What is Diplomacy? Diplomacy means different things to different scholars. That is, no general definition of diplomacy can be very satisfactory or very revealing. Sir Ernest Satow aptly defines diplomacy as “the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson application of intelligence and tact to the conduct of official relations between the governments of independent states”. Also, Stutz (1995:30) defines diplomacy as the process by which states and other international actors pursue official international relations, reconciling competing and conflicting interests through negotiations. On the other hand, Ronald Peter (2006:1) states that diplomacy is “the art and practice of conducting negotiations between representatives of groups or states”. With regard to international diplomacy and the professionals that engage in diplomacy (diplomats), he defines diplomacy as “the conduct of international relations through intercession in the sectors of peace - making, trade, war, economics, culture, environment and human rights”. Rules and Conducts of Diplomacy Diplomacy is a complex game of manoeuvring in which the goal is to get other players to do what you want them to do. The players can number from two, in bilateral diplomacy, to many, in multilateral diplomacy. The rules of diplomacy are, at best, loose, and there is not just one mode of play. Instead, like all the most fascinating games, diplomacy is intricate and involves considerable strategy that can be employed in several ways. Thus, while diplomacy is often portrayed by an image of sombre negotiations over highly-polished wooden tables in ornate rooms, it is much more than that. Modem diplomacy is a far-ranging communication process (Rourke, 2006). 100 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations There are usually diplomatic protocol and rules of courtesy in the conduct of diplomacy. It is on this note that Rourke proposed basic rules of effective diplomacy, which include: 1. Be realistic: It is important to have goals that match your ability to achieve them. Being realistic also means remembering that the other side, like yours, has domestic political problems that, again just like you, mean they have to engage in two-level diplomacy. 2. Be careful about what you say: The experienced diplomat plans and weighs words carefully. We don’t need to punch our chest and say how great we are and talk about the negative aspects of other societies. 3. Seek common ground: Finding common ground is a key to ending disputes peacefully. A first step to seeking common ground is to avoid seeing yourself as totally virtuous and your opponent as the epitome of evil. 4. Be flexible: While adhering to core principles may be important, being flexible on everything other than the most vital points is often wise. While working with North Korea and other countries in the region to resolve the nuclear confrontation, Secretary of State, Powell had it right when he observed, “There are different approaches about this: should you talk? When should you talk? Would you negotiate? What do you put on the table? Those are all issues that are worth debating”. 5. Understand the other side: Try to understand what your opponent really wants and appreciate an opponent’s perspective even if you do not agree with it. 101 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson 6 . Be patient: It is also important to bid your time. Being overly anxious can lead to concessions that are unwise and may convey weakness to an opponent. As a corollary, it is poor practice to set deadlines, for yourself or others, unless you are in a very strong position or you do not really want an agreement. 7. Leave avenues of retreat open: It is axiomatic that even a rat will fight if trapped in a comer. The same is often true for countries. Call it honour, saving face, or prestige, it is importan\t to leave yourself and your opponent an out. Ultimatums, especially public ones, often lead to war. Whatever its other merits, President Bush’s demand that Saddam Hussein leave Iraq or face war left no room for him to manoeuvre, and war followed (Rourke, 2006: 259-260). Diplomacy as Politics The necessity of diplomacy, the purposes for which it is meant, its mechanics and means, all make it a political act. It is a special kind of political game that may either be played directly or indirectly, and its process may be implicit or explicit and tacit. Diplomacy often gets expressed or reflected in negotiations. These negotiations among nations, serve specific purposes. Duchacek (as cited in Adeniran, 1983) divides them into four categories as follows: i. resolving a conflict of interest peacefully; ii. preventing a clear and immediate danger of violent solution (or a risk of yielding to rival pressures); iii- restoring peace after a clash of national interests has led to violence and 102 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations iv. establishing an atmosphere, framework, system or permanent organisation for the peaceful solution of potential conflicts. The above purposes relate essentially to diplomacy in a crisis situation. But diplomacy is also practised in an atmosphere of peace, without anticipation of or legation, to express mutual interest, understanding and accommodation. Understanding each other’s positions and interests, along with an expressed willingness to negotiate, could help in preventing crises. The symbolic representation of a state in another, however, also suggests that through the diplomats, information is gathered about the power, position and plan of other nations, and the home country’s policies are influenced or reinforced by these. The circle is completed when the home state employs diplomacy to react to the intentions of the ambassador’s host country through bargaining, negotiations and agreements which are vital elements of international politics. Diplomacy and Bargaining The purpose of diplomacy is to persuade. In this sense, diplomats and negotiators can hint at serious consequences if negotiations are not successful. They have at their disposal, if supported by their home government, all the power resources of their nation. Successful bargaining, however, does not necessarily depend on great strength. In some cases, the possession of a wide range of options actually hinders one’s bargaining position. If two nations are in negotiations, and the range of compromise is uncertain, the 103 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idol'll Johnson nation which ends up compromising less may be the one with the fewer alternatives. While negotiation is the most important function of diplomacy, it is not the only one. Therefore, the following channels are also used in pursuing diplomatic issues. Telecommunications'. Direct communication between governments is now a very important channel for the conduct of diplomacy, both in crises and in more normal times. In crises, the telephone is especially valued as a means of communication between allied and friendly states, not least at head of state or government level. Here, it seems to be used chiefly as a vehicle for providing reassurance and intelligence, urging support, explaining attitudes, and agreeing to joint responses. Adversaries in a crisis are more likely to use written communication, whether over a hot line or via a broadcast statement. Similarly, radio and television broadcasts, together with official websites, can be used for direct communication between states. Messages may be sent through channels controlled by government, like the Voice of Russia (formerly Radio Moscow), Voice of America (VOA), and Radio and TV Marti, or influenced by government, like the BBC World Service or they may be sent by means of statements issued to the independent mass media (Berridge, 2005). In a crisis, such channels are valuable if, for example, an urgent no-change-in-policy message needs to be sent to a large number of allied states simultaneously. The fact that the commitment has been made publicly also gives added reassurance. If all other channels of communication with the rival state or alliance have collapsed, broadcast communications may be 104 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations indispensable. With its capacity to present visual images of political leaders, ministerial spokesmen, and ambassadors, television is particularly useful because it can send non-verbal as well as verbal messages. Multilateral Diplomacy: Although there were a few multilateral conferences prior to 1900, such as the Congress of Vienna (1815), the normal form of negotiation was bilateral diplomacy, which comprises direct negotiations between two countries. The use of multilateral diplomacy - which is conferences involving a number of nations- has expanded greatly in the modem era. More than any event, the founding of the League of Nations in 1920 marked this change, and there are now about 250 permanent world and regional intergovernmental organisations (IGOs) There are three obvious reasons why multilateral diplomacy has increased. First is that modem technology allows faster and more frequent contacts among countries. Second, many global concerns, such as the environment, cannot be solved singularly by any country or through traditional bilateral diplomacy alone. Instead, global cooperation and solutions are required. Third, diplomacy through multilateral organisations is attractive to smaller countries as a method of influencing world politics beyond their individual power (Rouke, 2007). Negotiation Negotiation is a most frequently used term in international relations. Negotiation is peaceful way of resolving conflict and it is usually conducted through diplomatic means. It includes non­ 105 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Iciowu Johnson judicial and arbitral processes such as conciliation and mediation. The term is limited to exchanges that take place directly between the parties, with the absence of third parties. The reasons for negotiation, the procedures in negotiation and conditions for a peaceful negotiation in international conflict will be the focus here. Negotiation is a discussion between two or more parties with the goal of resolving perceived differences of interests and the conflicts they cause. Negotiation has its own advantage as it allows for the discussion of the whole relationship, including the political elements of a conflict. Negotiation characteristically can be held in secret, and this prevents under influence from the third party who may also coerce, or suggest something that may be unacceptable to the conflicting parties. This allows the parties to retain their independence of mind towards the decision, which is an important element in the resolution of conflict, no matter the magnitude. It is important to note that negotiation is a direct process of dialogue and discussion between at least two parties faced with a conflict situation. Both parties come to the realisation that they have a problem, and both are aware that by talking to each other, they can find a solution to the problem. Going by what we mean by negotiation, it can be seen that communication is critical to the process. Thus, it can take place only when there is communication between parties. At later stages of conflict where conflict might have escalated and communication is threatened, or has stopped, negotiation becomes harder. However, negotiation typically takes place during the early stages of conflict when communication between parties is existent and 106 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations good, or at the de-escalation point when communication has been restored. Types of Negotiation There are two types of negotiation. The first is positional negotiation and the second is collaborative negotiation. The positional negotiation is based on the aggressive pursuit of interests by parties, and is typically adversarial and competitive. Parties make demands that are inconsiderate of the interests and needs of others, making it difficult for these interests to be met. Parties also perceive themselves to be in competition. In this case, the desire is to win, instead of working towards a mutually-beneficial outcome, because the demands of one party can be met only to the detriment of the other. Parties tend to stubbornly adhere to their positions, and one side seems to dominate the negotiation. Positional negotiations break down easily. Collaborative negotiation, on the other hand, is a process by which parties try to educate each other about their needs and concern, and they strive to solve their problems in ways that the interests and fears of affected parties are met. The process is collaborative in principle and the emphasis is on mutual understanding and feeling, all aimed at building a sustainable relationship. Reasons for Negotiation There are several reasons which make negotiation a necessary tool for conflict resolution. Some of the reasons are: 1. It is to avoid escalation of conflict to war, and in case war has begun, it helps to end it. 107 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson 2. The parties must have a foreknowledge of the issue. They have to prepare adequately, apart from knowing their position before going to the round table. 3. Each group will have the opportunity to determine where concessions are required, and the negotiators must be patient to absorb everything without being upset or bored. 4. Negotiation helps the parties in rejecting an opinion that does not favour them or the entity they are representing. Essentially, negotiations may fail in the peaceful settlement of disputes once conflict has begun. The reason is that there is every tendency for one party to coerce the other the moment they are brought together to discuss, and this will lead to further conflict in the future. Most negotiations end up fuelling hostilities as each party attempts to flaunt its power. More often than not, peace settlements are negotiated in a victor-vanquished context. However, there are reasons why some conflicts are irresolvable. These include: the prejudices of the parties, the images and perceptions of the parties, suspicions, and mutual fears. In reality, a period of direct negotiation, which presupposes a full participation of all the parties and full communication between the parties, is what could be termed “transfer of conflict from the battle­ field to the conference table”. As a matter of fact, negotiation follows certain procedures, and these are: a) When the parties in a conflict agree to go to the negotiating table, there is the need for the parties to choose a venue where the negotiation will take place. In most cases, the negotiation does not take place in any of the conflicting 1 0 8 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations parties' territories. The parties, however, must have the confidence that the country hosting the negotiation is highly secure. In other words, the parties’ security must be adequately guaranteed. The host country must exhibit impartiality, and must also provide the needed facilities to enable the negotiation proceed successfully, b) The shape of the room and that of the negotiating table must be agreed upon in order not to place any of the parties at a disadvantaged position. The negotiation must be conducted in a language that the parties understand. Where an interpreter is needed, the parties must agree and the interpreter must be of international repute. Generally, the composition and strength of the delegation to the negotiation depends on the degree of the conflict. At times, the president of a country leads the delegation. This is tagged “personal diplomacy”. Personal diplomacy is seen as a dangerous strategy or practice in international conflict negotiation. This is because any agreement reached at such negotiation is binding on the country. It is more dangerous if the head of state makes mistakes, as this may jeopardise his credibility. This is one of the reasons senior government officials or civil servants are usually in the delegation. Conditions for Negotiation There are some conditions that must be fulfilled for a peaceful negotiation. These are: 109 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson 1. The issue under contention must be specific, clear or carefully defined rather than vague or ambiguous. 2. The parties must avoid the use of threats. 3. Negotiation becomes more successful when the parties are found to have or share the same interest. For instance, members of the same regional, sub-regional organisations are likely to resolve their differences amicably with the help of the organisation. In other words, it will be difficult for the parties to go into war because the parties have systematic mutualism, and an interlocking interest in other areas. 4. The issues are defined in such a way that pay-offs can be arranged for either sides or that the rewards for both parties will increase through cooperation. In a disarmament negotiation, the parties have to be militarily equal. More importantly, negotiation seems to have universal application as a principle of conflict management based on dialogue. People in all societies and cultures across the world talk and negotiate their interests. There are, however, cultural peculiarities in terms of the setting, preparatory stage, the actual interaction phase, and the follow-up. In addition to the general principles of dispute settlement, international law provides a wide variety of legal methods for states to resolve conflicts. Students of international relations must, however, note that the laws of negotiation do not obligate states to reach agreement or settle disputes peacefully. They do, however, provide rules for several conflict resolution procedures, including: 110 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations 1. Mediation: When a third party proposes a non-binding solution to a controversy between two other states. 2. Good Offices: When a third party offers a location for discussion among disputants but does not participate in the actual negotiations. 3. Conciliation: When a third party assists both disputing sides but does not offer any solution. 4. Arbitration: When a third party gives a binding decision about the disputant’s claims through an ad hoc forum. 5. Adjudication: When a third party offers a binding decision about a conflict through an institutionalised tribunal, such as a court. I l l UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Seven Power and Power Transition in International Relations This chapter will give an overview of how power has been an important concept in international relations from the early days to the present. In the post-World War II era, especially, the notions of national power has proven important theory, but difficult to define in application. The guiding question in this lecture is: What is power? In addition, emphasis on the use of power in international conflicts will be examined. Power is an elusive concept. It is hard to define, measure or describe exactly how it works. Joseph Nye writes that power “is like the weather. Everyone talks about it, but few understand it”. Alluding to an even greater mystery, Nye confides that power is “like love .. .easier to experience than to define or measure”. If the nature of power is so perplexing to a scholar like Nye, then how can we begin to understand it? The first step is to see the dualistic nature of power as both a means (asset tool) and an end (goal). With most decisions made by reciprocal bargaining or through conflict, with a relatively naked rationality operating and with severe difficulties of communication, international politics is a rough game. More simply and directly than in politics within a state, the raw power of the participants determines the outcomes. On what is power based? First and foremost, a state’s military power determines its overall power in international politics. Military power is hard to assess. Different states emphasise different types of arms. A.F.K. Organski (1958) was among the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining end Peace Building in International Relations first to call attention to the danger that the probability of war may increase during a period of power transition. In this sense, perceptible inequality of power makes it foolish for the weaker side to initiate a war, while it is advisable for the stronger side to be apprehensive. This is borne out by the experience of India and Pakistan following the Bangladesh War of 1971. Prior to that conflict, the two neighbours lived in near-constant fear of war and readiness for it in a quarter of a century. After Pakistan’s population, territory, and resources were substantially reduced and India tested a nuclear explosive device, Pakistan’s resentment ran high, but little could be done to alter the situation, and both the probability and fear of an Indo-Pakistani War in the proximate future declined markedly. As pointed out, different states emphasise different types of arms. This explains variety in power capability. For instance, Israel does not have much of a navy, but it has an excellent small army and air force. How can it be compared with Great Britain, which has an excellent small navy? How does nuclear capacity figure in the calculation? Beyond this problem of comparison, to be considered are questions such as toughness, morale, and battle readiness that must be considered. Thus, Israel’s armed forces are stronger than their small size would suggest, because of their spirit and level of training; in relation to their frequent combat experience. Elements of Power There are many ways in which elements of power can be analysed. These are: 113 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Id o v n Johnson National Geography: The location of a country, particularly in relation to other countries, is significant. Also, a country’s topography -mountains, rivers, and plains- is very important. Topography can work against a country. For example, the southern and eastern two-thirds of Iraq is a broad plain that provided a relatively easy invasion avenue for the mechanised U.S. and British forces in 2003. A country’s size is important also. Bigger is often better. The immense expanse of Russia, for example, has repeatedly saved it from conquest. By contrast, Israel’s small size gives it no room to retreat. A country’s climate can also play a power role. The tropical climate of Vietnam, with heavy monsoon rains and dense vegetation, made it difficult for the Americans to use effectively much of the superior weaponry they possessed. Population: A state with large number of people - such as India, Indonesia, or Nigeria gains power from the mass of its population. Nigeria is a leading state in sub-Saharan Africa, primarily because it has the largest population in the region. This population gives it sufficient critical mass so that it is the natural centre for cultural and economic activity in the region; it therefore becomes a hub of communication. Another reason population per se serves as a basis of power is that in wartime, even if a state does not have a particularly good army, it may be difficult to defeat if it has a large population. However, population alone will not make a state strong. In the 19th century, China, the largest state in the world, was dominated easily by the smaller European powers. Today, the two largest states in the world, India and China, are only intermediate powers, though they are on the verge of becoming major powers. 114 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Economic Power: Even if it is not militarily powerful, a state may figure importantly in international politics if it controls something of economic importance. Saudi Arabia has only a small military force, for instance, but it has often been able to get other states to do what it wishes because they depend on it for their oil imports. On the other hand, economic sanctions can be used as a tool of international politics. A non-military coercion often used by the U.S., even in dealing with friends, is the imposition of economic sanction whereby a state or group of states deliberately withhold normal economic relations to punish another state. For instance, the United Nations asked its members to withhold most trade from Iraq from 1990 to 2003 to force it to destroy its weapons of mass destruction. Technology: A state’s technological advancement brings it to power dominance in global politics. One source of U.S. strength is the considerable money its government, corporations, and universities spend on research and development (R & D). In 2003, the U.S. spent $284 billion. That was almost three times as much as Japan (SI06 billion) and more than the combined R & D spending of the 25 countries in the European Union ($201 billion). Another good measure of technological sophistication and capability is computing capacity. Needless In contemporary times, business, education, science and other key elements of national power depend on computers. Leadership: Leadership ability of government adds or detracts from a country’s power. For example, Prime Minister Winston 115 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson Churchhill’s sturdy image and his inspiring rhetoric well served the British people during World War II. In contrast, the presidency of Russia’s Boris Yeltsin, which had begun with heroics as he confronted tanks in the streets of Moscow in 1991, dissolved into incompetence as the ailing, often drunk Yeltsin became an increasingly sad caricature of his former self. Power Politics and Cold War International Relations Power politics played a very prominent role in the Cold War international relations. The operations of power politics were evident. In the first place, the state (world) was graded according to power status. The super powers - U.S.A. and USSR- were on top, followed by medium powers of Japan, Germany, China, France and Britain. Next were other medium powers such as Canada, Australia, India playing significant roles along with sub-regional powers such as Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, and Indonesia. The rule of power relationships were formalised in the procedures of the United Nations where five countries: US Britain, France, China and the Soviet Union had veto power. Again, there was dictatorship of the great powers. The US and the Soviet Union had periodic summit in which they deliberated and decided on the affairs of the world. A less auspicious circumstance through decision-making procedure was regularised through contact at ambassadorial and diplomatic levels. There were varieties of blocs such as NATO, WARSAW- PACT, COMECON, ASEAN, CENTO, The Arab League, O.A.U. (now AU), E.E.C, and O.A.S. . Secret treaties were constant features of Cold War politics at the superpower level and below. The treaties took two (2) forms: 116 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations 1. Bilateral involving direct negotiation between two parties. 2. Multilateral involving several countries. Such treaties included SALT agreement and HOTLINE. Finally, foreign aid figured prominently as an instrument of manipulation in the Cold War politics. The aid was either bilateral or multilateral through IMF, World Bank, EEC agreement and home convention. Diplomacy as Applied Power National diplomacy is normally about the application of a country’s power to further its national interests. While it is common to think of applying power as using military forces or perhaps economic sanctions and incentives, the application of power is much more complex. To begin with, a country’s economic and military might rest on the strength of its infrastructure. Accordingly, a strong infrastructure adds to a country’s diplomatic strength because a country’s status alongside the willingness or reluctance of other countries to follow its lead is an aspect of applied power. One of these is soft power that encourages other countries to support and emulate a country they admire. As pointed out already, the U.S. position as a hegemonic power creates an assumption of American leadership in many other countries. They sometimes chaff at U.S. dominance and even try to undercut it, but these countries also see it as important to system stability and prosperity. Diplomacy applies power directly and indirectly. The direct diplomatic application of power includes the use of economic sanctions or inducements as well as threats. Threatened or actual 117 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson war is also a direct diplomatic use of power if a country follows the advice given by the great Chinese strategist Sun Tzu. “A government should not mobilise its army out of anger... Act when it is beneficial, desist when it is not”. As diplomacy moves along the scale away from the overt use of economic and military muscle, it ranges from threats all the way to the argumentation of skilled diplomats who have little power other than their own abilities to support their country’s goals. The indirect application of power is subtler. It involves a communication process of a country skilfully advancing its policy preferences, skilfully crafting and arguing the merit of its position, and persuading others to join in promoting those goals or at least to accede to them. It is important to indicate that states maintain a formal diplomatic apparatus for conducting politics with other states. The U.S., for instance, employs over two thousand Foreign Service officers to conduct its diplomacy. In addition, a number of ambassadors and high-ranking officials in the State Department are directly appointed by the president from outside the professional ranks of Foreign Service officers. That diplomacy does not directly involve military action does not mean that it is purely cooperative. The use of power in diplomacy, like the use of power in any other sorts of politics, may run the full range from persuasion to coercion. 118 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Eight Strategies, Tactics and Conflict Resolution The word strategy> involves the use or threat of force in international relations. It means the art of distributing and applying military means to fulfil ends policy. Actors use strategy to pursue good outcomes in bargaining with one or more other actors. Thus, states deploy power capabilities as leverage to influence each other’s action. On the other hand, tactic is used at the domestic level for the purpose of power and prestige in world affairs. Central to tactical methods are political warfare and revolutionary tactics. It is crucial to note that the use of tactics in international politics is not as pronounced as strategy. Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution It has been generally accepted that conflict is ubiquitous and solution to its occurrence is an important issue. However, different ways of tackling conflict outbreak has been advanced by scholars and practitioners of conflict. Here, two concepts: conflict management and conflict resolution will be our focus. Basically, in order to avoid war, there is the need for proper management of conflict. Management of international conflicts can be done through diplomacy. The strategies involve bargaining and negotiation (Fully discussed in Chapter 10). However, there are various reasons for conflict management. This is to enable the decision-maker follow closely the rapidly-changing situation through communication, use facts and make generalisations to be able to know what to do. Conflict management is also to ensure the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowt Johnson setting of a committee to prevent conflict from escalating into a full-scale war; to reduce tension generally, as conflict generates tension. Since the end of a conflict cannot be determined, it is desirable to manage it and thus prevent it from escalating. In the management of conflict, the critical element is communication. The ability to gather information and make contacts is one of the hallmarks of conflict management. It is the key to knowledge of what the other party is doing. Any piece of information will enable one to know the feelings and the intentions of the other party about the conflict. Also, the availability of information will determine the amount of tension the conflict generates. In other words, information determines the level of hatred or suspicion that a conflict generates. We will be able to get more information if the parties involved in the conflict continue to talk. It is observed in many conflicts across borders that the amount of information available to the parties determines the intensity of the conflict. There is bound to be an exchange of information when the conflict is too serious. Essentially, when a conflict has gone beyond manageable limits, less communication occurs, which is a signal that the situation is dangerous. This is marked by suspicion. In other words, in a state of non-communication, then the conflict may likely degenerate into a war. This means that increased communication is a basic requirement in the management of conflict. Similarly, conflict resolution implies a solution acceptable to all concerned, which does not sacrifice any basic interest, and which no party will alter or wish to repudiate. Conflict resolution 1 2 0 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations therefore entails settlement of conflicts. In this sense, according to John Burton conflict: is imposed by a third party such as the International Court of Justice or a greater power. It is also a compromise, which the parties feel they have to accept because neither party has the resources to oppose it. (Burton as quoted in Akinboye and Ottoh, 2005). It is important to know that settlement reduces the level or intensity of conflict behaviour but it leaves the conflict situation substantially untouched. Thus, resolution removes the very ground of dispute by eliminating or transforming the conflict situation. Military Strategy and Conflict Resolution Classical realists emphasise statecraft - the art of managing state affairs and effectively manoeuvring in a world of power politics among governing states. Power strategies are plans used by actors to develop power capabilities to achieve their goals. A key aspect of strategy is choosing the kinds of capabilities to develop, given limited resources, in order to maximise international influence. This requires foresight because the capabilities required to manage a situation may need to be deployed years before that situation presents itself. Strategies also shape policies for when a state is willing to use its power capabilities. The will of a nation or leader is hard to estimate. Even if leaders make explicit their intention to fight over an issue, they might be bluffing. 121 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idow u Johnson The strategic actions of China in recent years exemplify the concept of strategy as rational deployment of power capabilities. China’s central foreign policy goal is to prevent the independence of Taiwan, which China considers an integral part of its territory (as does the United Nations and, at least in theory, the United States). China may not have the military power to invade Taiwan successfully, but it has declared repeatedly that it will go to war if Taiwan declares independence. So far, even though such a war might be irrational for China, the threat has deterred Taiwan from declaring independence. Not provoking war by declaring independence, Taiwan instead has engaged in diplomacy to gain influence in the world. It lobbies the U.S congress, seeks admission into the UN and other world organisations, and grants foreign aid to countries that recognise Taiwan’s government (23 mostly small, poor countries worldwide as of 2009). China has used its own diplomacy to counter these moves. It breaks diplomatic relations with countries that recognise Taiwan, and it punishes any moves in the direction of Taiwanese independence. Half the countries that recognise Taiwan are in the Caribbean and Central America, leading to a competition for influence in the region. China has tried to counter Taiwanese ties with those countries by manipulating various positive and negative leverages. Similarly, China has used two of its five vetoes in the UN Security Council to block peacekeeping forces in countries that extended recognition of Taiwan. These vetoes demonstrate that if China believes its interests in Taiwan are threatened, it can play a spoiler role on the Security Council. For instance, when the former 122 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia recognised Taiwan in 1999 (in exchange for SI billion in aid), China vetoed a UN peacekeeping mission there at a time of great instability in next -door Kosovo (by 2001, Macedonia had switched its diplomatic recognition to China). In contrast, when its Taiwan interests are secure, China cooperates on issues of world order. For example, although China opposed the 1991 Gulf War, it did not veto the UN resolution authorising it. These Chinese strategies mobilise various capabilities, including missiles, diplomats, and industrial conglomerates, in a coherent effort to influence the outcome of China’s most important international issue. From this analysis, we can say that strategy increases China’s power. In the same vein, the strategy of deterrence uses threat to punish another actor if it takes a certain negative action (especially attacking one’s own state or one’s allies). If deterrence works, its effects are almost invisible; its success is measured in attacks that did not occur. Generally, advocates of deterrence believe that conflicts are more likely to escalate into war when one party to the conflict is weak. In this view, building up military capabilities usually convinces the stronger party that resorting to military leverage would not succeed, so conflicts are less likely to escalate into violence. A strategy of compellence, sometimes used after deterrence fails, refers to the use of force to make another actor take some action (rather than refrain from taking action). Generally, it is harder to get another state to change course (the purpose of compellence) than it is to get it to refrain from changing course (the purpose of deterrence). 123 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson One strategy used to try to compel compliance by another state is escalation - a series of negative sanctions of increasing severity applied in order to induce another actor to take some action. In theory, the less severe actions establish credibility, showing the first actor’s willingness to exert power on the issue and the pattern of escalation establishes the high costs of future sanctions if the second actor does not cooperate. These actions should induce the second actor to comply, assuming that it finds the potential costs of the escalating punishments greater than the costs of compliance. During the Cold War, many international relations scholars worried that a conventional war could lead to nuclear war if the superpowers tried to apply escalation strategy. Another military strategy is arms race. An arms race is a reciprocal process in which two (or more) states build up military capabilities in response to each other (Read more on Arms Race in Chapter Four). Because each wants to act prudently against a threat, the attempt to reciprocate leads to a runaway production of weapons by both sides. The mutual escalation of threats erodes confidence, reduces cooperation, and makes it more likely that a crisis (or accident) could cause one side to strike first and start a war rather than wait for the other side to strike. The arms race process was illustrated vividly by the U.S/Soviet nuclear arms race, which created arsenals of ten thousands of nuclear weapons on each side. International Case Studies of Conflict and Conflict Resolution Ethnic tension and conflicts constitute a defining characteristic of the post-Cold War World. As already pointed out, the causes of war or conflict can be placed within the framework of 124 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations individual, state and international levels of analysis. However, the inevitability of these wars does not say that global society should not enjoy peace. The international norm of peaceful settlement is set forth in Article 2, Paragraph 1, of the UN Charte states: All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered. Essentially, most of the common procedures for settlement of international disputes are listed in Article 33, paragraph 1, of the UN charter: The parties to any dispute, the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, shall, first of all, seek a solution by negotiation, inquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means of their choice. Disputes before the United Nations have had a variety of causes, but during the several decades of the Cold War they involved controversies between the East and West, conflict produced by the decolonisation process, questions relating to territory and boundaries, and disputes arising from intervention by one or more states in the internal quarrels of another. In this sense, 125 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido'wu Johnson the post-Cold War world through UN has resulted in series of conflict resolution; stemming primarily from internal conflict rather than external intervention. However, case studies of some international conflicts/disputes resolved by UN will be analysed. South Africa South Africa’s racial policies dominated UN discussions and debates more than any other issue through the 1980s. South Africa’s discrimination against minorities first came before the General Assembly in 1946. The complaint was brought by India, alleging South African violation of the Cape Town Agreements of 1927 and 1932, which guaranteed equality of treatment for each other’s resident nationals. The Indian complaint was never resolved, and it was a perennial subject of Assembly discussions and resolutions until it was merged in the 1950s with a broader attack on South African racial discrimination, focusing on the policy of apartheid, or separation of white minority from the non­ white majority. The major objective of sustained UN condemnation of apartheid was to isolate South Africa from the world community, and ultimately, force the Afrikaner government to abolish the practice. In 1962, the Assembly created a Special Committee against Apartheid to gather information on apartheid and make sure the issue remained a priority in the Assembly and the world at large. When South Africa persistently refused to abandon its apartheid policies, the Assembly responded with increasingly bitter denunciations, repeatedly urging members to cut all political and economic ties with South Africa and calling on the Security Council to impose mandatory sanctions. In 1973, an International 126 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of the crime of apartheid was opened for signature, and in 1976 the Assembly began explicitly to advocate armed struggle in South Africa as a means of eradicating the evil. Through the 1980s the apartheid system remained largely intact. In 1982, in response to growing external pressures, South Africa introduced modest reforms, including a tri-cameral legislature with separate chambers for whites, Indians, and coloureds (people of mixed race). The changes gave no political rights to blacks and left the white minority in control. Meanwhile, the government used the full force of criminal law, including the death penalty, against internal opponents of apartheid. Members of the anti-apartheid African National Congress (ANC) were the most frequent targets. The world reaction to apartheid regime was improving. Between 1989 and 1992, the UN General Assembly removed a ban on South African participation in international sporting, scientific and cultural activities and advised members to consider ending other sanctions as circumstances warranted. The European Community stopped its oil embargo, and the United States ended restrictions on economic contact with South Africa. As a matter of fact, sustained pressure and economic sanctions were deemed successful when political reforms were introduced in the country that permitted elections in which each adult South African, white and black, voted in 1994 for a government of their choice. Thus, Nelson Mandela’s victory and his inauguration as president of South Africa marked the end of a 127 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson long ordeal. The UN role in the political and social transformation of South Africa was pivotal. Arab-Israeli and Israeli-Palestinian Conflicts The Arab-Israeli and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts have been a perennial concern of the UN almost from the inception of the organisation. How did the problem begin? Diaspora Jews, mostly in Eastern Europe, formed the World Zionist Organisation under the leadership of Theodor Herzl toward the close of the 19th century. Calling for a Jewish homeland or state where Jews could practice their traditions free from persecution, the movement centred its attention on a “return to Zion”, that is, to the biblical source of identity, in modem times referred to as Palestine. The UN General Assembly recommended partition of the Palestine mandate into separate Arab and Jewish states, each politically independent but forming an economic union. Arab opposition altered the peaceful implementation of this plan. However, after a military struggle, the Palestinians were defeated and Israel was established in May 1948. Independent Arab states, however, within moments of Israeli declaration of independence, attacked the new country. The war they fought, however, was not without its innocent victims. Palestinian Arab refugees who had fled in droves rather than live in a Jewish state regarded the Israelis as imperialists. Arab nationalists everywhere took up the cause, declaring a holy war against Zionism and vowing to destroy the newborn state of Israel. Israel prevailed over the invading Arab states and extended its control and ultimately its sovereignty over a broader area than that described in the original UN resolution. 1 2 8 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining ana' Peace Budding in International Relations Subsequently, a UN mediator was able to secure a ceasefire. Later, four armistice agreements were concluded. Since that time no annual session of the General Assembly has been free from the conflicts between Arabs, Jews, and Palestinians. The issues confronting the UN have all centred on the aftermath of Arab defeats in their several wars with Israel. Prominent among them have been refugee relief and resettlement, claimed Arab property rights in Israel, Israeli human rights violations, and after 1967, Israeli occupation of Arab territories, especially the West Bank, Gaza strip, and Syrian Golan Heights. Also important has been the status of Jerusalem, the creation of an independent Arab Palestinian state, and a host of security questions stemming from terror tactics employed by Arab states and organisations against the Jewish state. The Security Council also has been heavily involved in the Arab-Israeli and Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Major hostilities have erupted during nearly every decade since 1948-49 war for Israeli independence. In 1956, Egyptian nationalisation of the Suez Canal provided the occasion for an invasion of Egypt by Britain and France (Suez-Sinai War) and subsequently by Israel. In 1967 (the Six-Day War), Israel launched a crushing military strike against Egypt to remove the threat to its security from Egyptian - supported guerrillas and to maintain use of the Gulf of Aqaba for its trade and commerce. A UN force stationed at Sharm al-sheikh after the 1956 war to guarantee Israeli use of the Gulf of Aqaba had been removed abruptly by UN Secretary-General U Thant. In the 1967 war, Israel occupied the Sinai up to the Suez Canal. Jordan lost control of the West Bank territory it had seized in the 1948-49 war, and Syria was 129 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson pushed off the Golan Heights. In 1973 (called the Yom Kippur War by Israelis and the Ramadan war by Arabs), Egypt and Syria struck the initial blow against Israel in hope of regaining territory lost in 1967 war. In 1978 and again in 1982, Israeli forces initiated major hostilities in Lebanon in response to Palestinian raids across the Lebanese border into Israel. More importantly, Security Council resolutions have established certain principles to which all the participants repeatedly refer in the Middle East negotiations. Security Council Resolution 242, adopted unanimously on November 22, 1967 in the aftermath of the Six-Day War, is by far the most important. Its two cardinal principles are: (1) Israeli withdrawal “from territories occupied in the recent conflicts” and (2) “respect for and acknowledgement of the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence of every state in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognised boundaries.” Although the UN General Assembly failed to reflect the dramatic turns in the Arab-Israeli conflict, but its negotiation strategy over the years has received tremendous support globally. However, at Oslo in 1993, the Israeli government chose to recognise and make a pact with the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), to the exclusion of and against Hamas. The Oslo Agreement gave birth to the Palestine Authority governing an autonomous Palestinian area. After the 2006 election that brought Hamas to power, some movements began to negotiate a new and fuller pact between the PLO/PA and Israel, to the exclusion of Hamas. In June 2014, the brutal killings of four teenagers - one Palestinian and three Israelis- inflamed passion in Israel and the 130 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining end Peace Building in International Relations occupied territories. Hostilities and recriminations began with the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers in the West Bank: Eyal Yifrach, 19; Naftali Fraenkel, 16; and Gilad Shaar, 16. At the same time, the body of Muhammad Abu Khdeir, a Palestinian teenager, was found beaten and burned in a forest. In the quest to find those teenagers, six Palestinians were killed in confrontations with Israeli forces and about 400 Palestinians were arrested, many of them affiliated with Hamas, which Israel accused of the murders. The Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, after a delay, denounced the abductions and vowed to help catch the kidnappers. During funerals for the boys, hundreds of extreme right wing protesters blocked roads in Jerusalem chanting “Death to Arabs”. A facebook page named, People of Israel Demand Revenge, gathered 35,000 likes before being taken down; a blogger gave prominence to a photo, also on facebook, that featured a sign saying: “Hating Arabs is not racism, it’s values”. Even Mr. Netanyahu referenced an Israeli poem that reads: “Vegeance for the blood of a small child, Satan has not yet created” (New York Times, as cited in The Nation (Nigerian newspaper), 2014; 19). In an atmosphere in which each side dehumanises the other, it is not surprising that some people act on extremist views. However, efforts to achieve a lasting ceasefire between Israel and Hamas were initiated by the international community. Delegations from Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and regional powers met in Cairo working on a possible deal. Also, a four-hour UN-instigated ceasefire for humanitarian reasons took place. Palestinian officials also put some proposals on the table for negotiations. Hamas demanded the release of prisoners that were re-arrested in June 131 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idow Johnson 2014, who had been part of an exchange deal in 2011 for the return of Israeli Soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas also called for the opening of the Rafah crossing from Gaza into Egypt, a request which requires the approval of Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al Sisi. Israel’s representatives in Cairo also approved a formulation of a possible agreement. Thus, a comprehensive deal was agreed by Israelis, Palestinians and Hamas to ceasefire. Although the 2014 conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians was resolved, it will be very reasonable for Israeli and Palestinian leaders to display courage to terminate the cycle of hostilities and bring both the short-term assault and the long-term conflict to an end. India - Pakistan Conflict Territorial and other disputes between India and Pakistan have been a periodic feature of the UN landscape. The India - Pakistan issue originally came before the Security Council in January 1948 at the instance of India. When the two countries gained independence in 1947, more than five hundred princely states of the sub-continent were given the choice by the British government of joining one or the other of the new states. The option to remain apart and declare independence was also on the table for the princes. For most, the choice was made on the basis of the dominant religion and especially the geographic proximity to India and Pakistan. In India’s case, New Delhi had no intention of allowing the princes to remain apart from Indian Union. Literally, hundreds of princely states were absorbed, forcibly where necessary, and the princes were retired with annual government stipend. The princely state of Kashmir, however, with its Hindu maharaja presiding over a predominantly Muslim region, but with 132 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations geographic contiguity to India and Pakistan, decided to remain independent. But invading tribal people from Pakistan’s northwest frontier challenged this decision. The maharaja’s army was no match for the invading Muslim tribes, and the Hindu ruler was forced to plead for help from New Delhi. New Delhi demanded the maharaja’s accession to India in return for this support and his safe removal. He complied with the demand, and Indian troops moved to protect what they considered a new member of the Indian Union. Pakistani forces thereupon formally entered the fray, and Kashmir became a region of combat between India and Pakistan from that day. The Security Council appointed a UN Commission on India and Pakistan (UNCEP) to investigate and mediate the Kashmir dispute. After months of negotiation, UNCIP was secured a truce, effective January 1, 1949, and an acceptance in principle of a plebiscite to resolve the accession question. However, renewed fighting between India and Pakistan shattered the truce in Kashmir. Diplomacy, whether organised by the UN or independent of it, was still limited by events, and there was little promise that a solution to the problem of Kashmir would be found. Nevertheless, despite continuing assaults in Kashmir by terrorist organisations, a breakthrough of sorts occurred in January 2004 when the Pakistani President and the Indian Prime Minister met in Islamabad and agreed to a formal ceasefire in Kashmir. The two leaders agreed to conduct high-level negotiations on Kashmir as well as seek ways to normalise communication and commerce between their countries. 133 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY son ific (East Timor) ations concern for the people of East Timor were reduced when Indonesia’s post-Suharto government aggressive campaign against the Timorese people. In the F 1998, Jakarta removed its troops and agreed to conduct n an effort to restore tranquillity and self-government to Seizing the opportunity to press for a resolution of the problem, Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, named a Lepresentative on East Timor to work with the parties. In >99, the Representative, Jamsheed Marker, reported 1 his negotiations, and an agreement to hold a direct ballot ^as obtained from the Indonesian government, effect, the people of East Timor were to be given the accepting or rejecting a proposal of autonomy. The UN General cited his continuing concern but welcomed the mosphere of the negotiations as well as the statements by that their objective was peace and stability on the island, on results indicated the heavy preference of the East for independence. Those opposed to the move, however, to be reconciled. Fighting broke out and it attracted in by an international force led by Australia. The l forces gave up the fight, and peace was restored but at a ile price in death and destruction. United Nations f Support in East Timor (UNMISET) was sent to the May 2002 to help guide the new state, now officially Timor-Leste. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations The Congolese Civil War: The Congolese civil war started in August 1998 in the eastern part of the DRC (former Zaire). Apart from the Angolan Civil War, the Congolese second civil war appears to be Africa’s bloodiest and most destructive war. It deeply involved more than six African countries, including Uganda, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Angola, Mozambique and Chad Republic. The latter, however, pulled out its troops from the DRC after a couple of months. Before that development, more than 10,000 troops from the participating African states mentioned above were in the DRC for various reasons. Indeed, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Angola reckoned that their interests would be best served by supporting Laurent Desire Kabila as the de facto president of DRC against Uganda. On the other hand, Rwanda supported Congolese rebels fighting to overthrow Kabila. Also, Ugandan forces were in Congo only to protect Uganda’s borders and territory from bandits. In order to find durable and lasting solution, several peace efforts were made by sub-regional organisations like the SADC, individual actors such as Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, nation-states such as the United States of America and international organisations like the United Nations and one of its major organs the UN Security Council. On 10 July 1999, however, all the major players in the Congo’s war signed the Lusaka Ceasefire Accord. Despite this, fighting continued in the DRC. The Lusaka Peace Accord was marred by series of ceasefire violations by all the combatants because of lack of commitments. Hence, the UN Security Council, supported by its permanent and non- permanent members, invited 135 UNIVERSITY OF IBAD N LIBRARY Idowu Johnson some African leaders directly involved in the war to New York (USA) for peace talks aimed at resolving the conflict in the DRC (Adeyemo, 2000). Unlike Kosovo war or East Timor conflict, the UN was not so keen or active in resolving the Congolese civil war. The situation in the Congo seemed not to be appealing to the UN Security Council which has responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. In this regard, on Saturday, 11 December 1999, the US Ambassador to the UN, Mr. Richard Holbrooke, ruled out any role in peacekeeping plans in the DRC if there was no durable ceasefire in the country. When it finally decided to act, the UN decision was too late and not when expected by most African leaders. Critics argued that diplomacy will not work in the DRC case and that Richard Holbrooke’s success in Bosnia should not be used as a yardstick against which to measure his role in the DRC. After careful deliberations, on 20 February 2000, the UN Security Council reluctantly approved the deployment of 5,500 UN military observers and peacekeepers to monitor the Lusaka Peace Accord. The UN observers mission in the DRC was expected to supervise UN Disengagement Plan and redeployment of opposing forces. It also had the responsibility to protect UN personnel, facilities, equipment and civilians under “imminent threat of physical violence”. The Kampala summit gave hope of peace prospects in the DRC. Military solution failed to end Congo’s civil war. Before then, the Congo’s war had gulped millions of US dollars which could have been utilised for socio-economic development in all the countries involved in the Congolese Civil War which nearly 136 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations destabilised the Great Lakes Region. The war increased Uganda’s budget expenditure while many UPDF lives were lost although Ugandan authorities in Kampala did not accept this fact. The DRC (former Zaire) has not experienced political stability since its independence in 1960. Rather than peace and stability, the country has tumbled from one crisis or dictatorial rule to another. For example, shortly after Congo’s independence from Belgium in June 1960, Patrice Lumumba became Prime Minister of the country. Within three months of coming to power, he was arrested and killed by troops loyal to Colonel Mobutu Sese Seko who, with Belgian help and the CIA, took control of the country and renamed it Zaire. Mobutu ruled with iron fist until he was overthrown in 1997 by Congolese rebels led by Laurent Desire Kabila who was backed by Uganda and Rwanda. The overthrow of Mobutu Sese Seko and the installation of a new government by Kabila did not end political instability and civil strife in the DRC which in August 1998 was plunged into Africa’s biggest war since World War II (1939-1945). However, on Tuesday, April 18 2000, all the warring parties in the DRC signed a ceasefire, marking the end of 20 months of hostilities in the war-tom country. The ceasefire was witnessed by UN mission in Kinshasa. 137 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Nine Terrorism One of the challenges of examining terrorism is that it has no widely-accepted definition. This has affected initiatives to establish treaties and other international efforts to combat terrorism. Our effort in this chapter is to examine types, causes and effects of terrorism. However, because it is an international issue, the means to combat it is also very important. W hat is Terrorism? The term t e r r o r i s m , like g lo b a l i s m is difficult to define and has a diversity of meanings among different groups and individuals. Some definitions emphasise terrorism’s use of violence in the service of politics. According to Webster’s New World Dictionary, terrorism is “the use of force or threats to demoralise, intimidate, and subjugate...”. Another defines terrorism as “the deliberate attack on innocent civilians for political purposes”. Against this background, terrorism is the use of violence or intimidation to achieve a desired end. Basically, terrorism can generally be referred to as violent acts against a civilian population by state and/or non-state actors irrespective of their political, philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic and religious motives. In broad terms, terrorism is the use of any direct, illegal, irrational or random violence or the threat thereof against person or property, either by state or non-state actors for socio-political ends. However, terrorism can be construed to mean essentially the systematic use of terror or unpredictable violence against governments, publics or individuals to attain political UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations objectives. Case (2011: 117) succinctly defines it as the use of violence against civilians by non-state actors to achieve political goal. In order to find a basis for an acceptable definition, Imobighe (2006: 18) declares that four critical elements of terrorism must be investigated. These are the environment of terrorism; the nature of the actions associated with terrorism; the target of terrorist actions and the objectives for such actions. A closer look at these elements shows the following: • Terrorism occurs in an environment of conflict and discord, and hence it is a product of conflict escalation. • Terrorism is a violent mode of response to a conflictual relationship. • The target of terrorism is not limited to the parties directly involved in the conflictual relationship, but includes everybody directly or remotely associated with the principal actors or combatants. • The objectives of terrorism are varied and not always political. Imobighe further argues that if the four elements are incorporated into the conceptualisation of the term, it can simply be said that terrorism represents the indiscriminate and random use of different levels of violence against an opponent or the ancillary interests of such an opponent with whom one has an adversarial relationship, in order to strike fear into and impose one’s will on the opponent, or direct the opponent’s action towards a desired goal (Imobighe, 2006: 18). 139 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson There is no doubt that the very meaning of terrorism is shrouded in confusion. In basic terms, a web of activities is used to denote terrorism. These include assassination, kidnapping, hostage taking, bombing and any act that intimidates or coerce the state into a particular course of action. In spite of differences in what constitutes terrorism, it is an illegitimate use of force to achieve a political objective when innocent people are targeted. Accordingly, Hoffman identifies some key characteristics of terrorism, which distinguish it from other types of crimes. . Based on that, terrorism is: • ineluctably political in aims and motives; • violent or equally important, threatening violence; • designed to have far-reaching psychological repercussions beyond the immediate victim or target; • conducted by an organisation with an identifiable chain of command or conspiratorial cell structure (whose members wear no uniform or identifying insignia); and • perpetrated by a sub-national group or non-state entity (Hoffman, 2006: 34). Similarly, there is a clear distinction between international and domestic terrorism. International terrorism refers to the premeditated use, or threat of use, of extranormal violence or brutality to obtain a political objective through intimidation or fear directed at a large audience beyond national boundaries (Kegley, 1990). As a matter of fact, international terrorism, sometimes called state-sponsored terrorism, exists when a government harbours international terrorists (as the Taliban government in Afghanistan did in the case of Osama bin Laden and the Al-Qaeda organisation), finances international terrorist operations, or otherwise supports international terrorism (that is, terrorism outside of its own borders). 140 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Domestic terrorism, on the other hand, occurs when the act of terrorism is confined to national boundaries and does not include targets or agents from abroad. The UN Security Council Resolution 1566 (2004) defines terrorism as: criminal acts, including against civilians, committed with the intent to cause death or serious bodily injury, or taking of hostages, with the purpose to provoke a state of terror in the general public or in a group of persons or particular persons, intimidate a population or compel a government or an international organisation to do or to abstain from doing any act. It is notable however that there is no consensus amongst UN member states as to the precise definition of terrorism. The A.U. convention defines terrorism as: Any act by an individual, group, organization, a state or its agents (excluding liberation struggles, armed struggles against oppressive governments, colonization, occupation, aggression and domination by foreign forces), which is a violation of the criminal laws of a state party and international law instruments criminalizing it, and which may endanger the life, physical integrity or freedom of, or cause serious injury or death to any person, any number or group of persons or causes or may cause damage to public or private property, natural resources, environmental or cultural heritage and is calculated or intended to achieve those objectives in Article 1(3) (a) (i-iii). (A.U. Convention on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism; 1999). 141 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido^'u Johnson Typology of Terrorist Groups Oche (2007) has identified three main types of terrorist groups in the current international setting as the non-state terrorist, state-sponsored, and state-directed terrorist organisations. 1. Non-state Terrorists: These are terrorist groups that operate autonomously and do not receive any significant form of support from any state actor. They include: guerrilla movements, revolutionary groups and ethnic or religious groups. Some of these groups are either seeking redress for past injustices or greater autonomy within a state, if not independence. Examples are the Basque Separatist Movement (ETA) in Spain, the Armenians, who have carried on their campaign against Turkey in both the United States and Europe, and the Sikhs in India who have assassinated two Prime Ministers. 2. State Sponsored Terrorist Groups: Such groups generally operate independently of, but receive support from, one or more governments. State sponsors of terrorist groups have become insidious parts of the global struggle for power. States like Iran today have been accused of adopting terrorism to advance their interests in the Middle East. Other states such as Libya, North Korea, the Sudan and Syria have backed terrorist acts intended to drive the US and her allies out of strategically-important regions, humiliate its military forces, and undermine governments and political movements friendly to the United States. State sponsors give money, weapons, training, communication equipment, false passports and safe haven to benefitting groups. 142 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations 3. State-directed Terrorism: In this category, the terrorist group operates as an agent of government. It receives intelligence, logistics and operational support from that government. Libya is a classic example of a state that directs terrorist activities. Syria is also known to have directed terrorist activities against targets in Israel. The Causes of Terrorism There is no single cause of terrorism. In most cases, terrorism is fuelled by very strong feelings of injustice, and a belief that there are no alternative ways to rectify the situation. Terrorists seek conflict in an attempt to change the way that life is currently organised on a local, national or global scale. In today’s world, common causes of terrorism include feelings of discrimination over different cultural or religious beliefs, disputes over land or territory, feelings of political or economic inequality and feelings of moral or social injustice. These issues are widespread around the world. In this chapter, we are going to examine individual and group motivations and structural causes of terrorism. Individual and Group Motivations: Jenkins (1974) offers considerable insight into the nature of terrorism in an analysis for the U.S. congress. Jenkins argues against the perception that terrorism is the work of senseless, mindless and irrational actors. Attacks on civilian targets shock the conscience, and the seemingly random, chaotic carnage that is produced by terrorism understandably gives the impression to many that it is the work of insane individuals. This impression may even be intentionally 143 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowv Johnson cultivated by terrorists themselves alongside the media which portrays terrorists as lunatics but the evidence is unsubstantiated. Jenkins indicates that practitioners of terrorism have concrete political goals and do not simply engage in violence for the sake of violence in the mode of sociopathic criminals. Rather, because terrorist groups often lack the resources to mount a direct challenge to government security forces, they shift their focus to softer, less- fortified targets such as civilians. The often indiscriminate nature of attacks on civilians gamers the most attention while the purpose of a more conventional military operation may be to take and hold a piece of territory. Also, terrorist attack is designed to influence an audience beyond that of the immediate victims. Often the goal is to create a climate of panic and expose a government’s inability to prevent indiscriminate violence. Because of these conventional goals, Jenkins cast terrorism as a form of political theatre in which the harm suffered by the immediate victims of terrorism is of secondary importance to the group conducting the attack. Terrorism, in this sense, is designed to attract maximum attention and create massive emotional impact. It is clear that one of the reasons terrorism occurs is the massive amount of attention it can attract without being cost-prohibitive for small organisations. However, Crenshaw (1981) opines that terrorism is not necessarily the result of broad public dissatisfaction with the political order or evidence of a fractious society. He states further that terrorism is often the result of grievances of a disaffected group originating from the elite and claiming to fight for a larger group. This conclusion is reasonable, given the profile of left-wing terrorist groups that have been dominating the news for two decades. While 144 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations claiming to fight for the downtrodden worker, groups such as the Red Army Fraction in Germany largely comprises students from upper or middle-class origins. Their parents are academics, clergy, writers and other professionals, yet the students are disaffected and alienated from the society that spawned them. Crenshaw avers that psychological factors such as guilt, desire for vengeance, and a thirst for excitement are the primary motivations of individuals who participate in terrorism. Structural Causes of Terrorism Rather than focus on the psychological calculations of the individual terrorist, some researchers have put forth causal arguments based on the institutional and structural features of a society. One such argument revolves around the supposed connection between poverty and terrorism. These researchers emphasise the causal relationship between poverty and terrorism. Following the incident of September 11, 2001, politicians such as former vice president, A1 Gore, and President George W. Bush (of USA) have argued that combating terrorism should involve efforts to eradicate poverty and increase education in the world’s troubled spots. Academics too have prescribed the improvement of living standards in various regions in the hope of creating a disincentive for participation in terrorist activities. There is a good reason to think that certain socio-economic factors are determinants of terrorism. The lack of economic and educational opportunities has already been empirically linked to a variety of other problems, such as property crime, occurrence of civil war, and instability within new democracies. The general theory is that 145 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson poverty and lack of opportunity increase the level of grievances among economically-marginalised members of society and that a subset of an aggrieved population may choose to express its discontent violently by way of terrorism. Experience has, however, shown that many of the perpetrators of terrorist attacks or those who engage in suicide attacks come from educated, middle-class background. In spite of this, poverty as a causal factor in explaining the phenomenon of terrorism is very crucial. Terrorist Weapons and Tactics For all the ghastly history of terrorism using conventional weapons, future possibilities are even more disturbing. The following weapons and tactics are used by terrorists in perpetrating their acts. i. Conventional Weapons Terrorism: With relatively few exceptions, most terrorist attacks have used bombs, guns, and other conventional weapons. Data compiled by the U.S. State Department for 2003 indicates that, of the attacks that year on American targets, 75% involved some type of ground-delivered bomb, and 12% utilised firearms (Rouke, 2006). Even the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in 2001, as horrific as they were, would fall under the category of conventional weapons terrorist attacks. ii. Radiological Terrorism: The extraordinary difficulty of obtaining enough nuclear material to make a nuclear bomb, mastering the complex process to cause a nuclear chain reaction, and circumventing the security surrounding existing nuclear weapons all make it very unlikely that in the foreseeable future terrorists could get and use a mini 146 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations version of a military nuclear weapon. There is a much greater possibility of terrorists being able to construct a radiological weapon, a so-called dirty bomb that would use conventional explosives to disperse radioactive material over a large area. iii. Chemical and Biological Terrorism: Public awareness of the possibility of chemical or biological attack grew after the 9/11 attacks. There was alarm when it was learned that one of the suicide hijackers had made repeated trips to rural airports to learn about crop dusters. Anxiety was further heightened by the spread of anthrax through the U.S. mail to postal facilities, news organisations, and congressional offices. The insatiable quest to increase the number of victims or casualties of terror attacks has led terrorists to devise means of spreading poisonous chemicals or dangerous biological agents to destroy lives. iv. Cyber-Terrorism: Cyber criminals and terrorists using the Internet are unique in that land borders, or any other geographical impediment does not restrict them. This form of terrorism involves the invasion of, or gaining illegal entry into, other computer systems for the purpose of tampering with their systems and ultimately causing harm. Therefore, the challenge facing both the developed and developing world is how to respond to cyber-terrorism. Terrorism in Africa The Sub-Saharan region of Africa faces significant security challenges that render the entire continent vulnerable to terrorism. 147 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson Local rebel movements, transnational organised criminal networks and the presence of other transnational-armed groups create a dangerous mix of actors that exploit local grievances and weak state capacity. Therefore, the success of counter-terrorism efforts in the region will largely depend on increased national capacity, better coordination and information-sharing within and between governments and their citizens. Prior to the development of transnational terrorism, each continent had its own manifestation of threat of terrorism. The development of terrorism from 1960 to 1999 introduced the following categories: (a) Nationalist, Separatist or Ethnic Motivations: Conflicts in Africa are more often based on ethnic or tribal motivations than in other parts of the world. While nationalist struggles set the stage for the use of terrorism against colonialists, political dominance by major tribes instigate separatists to use terrorism to advance their demands. Therefore, equitable distribution of political power becomes critical as the case of Nigeria’s Niger Delta region exemplifies. (b) State-inspired/sponsored Terrorism: State-inspired/ sponsored terrorism falls within the category of activities of state-run terrorist operations as well as acts by legitimate governments against opponents through the instrumentality of terrorism. In Africa, Sudan and Libya had been accused of such acts of terrorism especially against Western targets and interests. (c) Religious Motivation: Religious fundamentalism is not 148 confined to any particular faith or country, or to the poor UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations and uneducated. Instead, they are most likely to emerge in societies where the need exists for transformation. In the African experience, however, Islamic fundamentalism seems to be more prevalent as demonstrated in Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Somalia, Libya and Sudan, just to mention a few (Oche, 2007: 119 -120). Boko Haram Terrorist Group in Nigeria Nigeria has witnessed an upsurge in terror-related attacks. Whilst the country is not new as a target of terror attack, the dimension it has taken and the nature of weapons being used by terrorists (especially Boko Haram insurgents), are unprecedented. Boko Haram, which roughly translates into “Western education is sinful” or “Western teaching is forbidden” in Hausa language was founded in 2002 by Mohammed Yusuf as a social network designed to impose a strict Islamic lifestyle in northern Nigeria. Although Boko Haram had been engaging in shadow operations in some states in the northern part of Nigeria prior to 2009, they however, came to the limelight in 2009. Boko Haram expands its ranks by taking advantage of widespread anger in the north against wealth gap in the country (Pogoson, 2013: 36). After conflicts between the members of the sect and Yobe State government over the application of unadulterated Sharia law, the Yobe State Council initiated efforts to expel the sect from the state. The sect then relocated to Kanama, a remote village near the border with Niger Republic. Following the death of their leader, Mohammed Yusuf in 2009, Boko Haram began its campaign of violent attacks against 149 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ldowu Johnson police stations and military installations. The sect was also involved in sectarian violence. They launched in simple attacks on Christians using clubs, cutlasses and small anns. hi the same vein, the sect, initially known for attacking churches and government facilities, became the subject of intense international scrutiny when a suicide member drove through the gates of the United Nations headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, in 2011. This led many to believe that the group had larger ends in mind than just the domination of Nigeria. Since 2011, the group has become more menacing in acts of insurgency. It has gone from a phase when it supposedly constituted no serious international threat to a phase in which the international community is beginning to take it more seriously. The attack on the UN building in Abuja in June 2011 and the abduction of about 200 Chibok school girls in April 2014 in Yobe State has publicised the group and its intent internationally in the wake of the fact that Boko Haram members are receiving training from the al-Qaeda network in the Maghreb in northern Africa, A1 Shabab in Somalia, Salafist group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) in Algeria or some other jihadist groups outside Nigeria. The phenomenal growth of terrorism in Nigeria has implication for sustainable development and regional stability of the continent. Effects of Terrorism on Global Peace and Security The primary effect of terrorism is psychological. In part, the effectiveness of terrorism in capturing attention is due to the dramatic nature of the incidents it engineers, especially as shown on television. Although only a few dozen people may be injured by a bomb left in a market, millions of people empathise with the victims (that is it creates a feeling of “it could have been me” in 150 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflict Bargaining and Peace Budding in International Relations viewers) because they also go to markets. Attacks on airplanes augment this fear because many people already fear flying. Terrorism thus amplifies a small amount of power by its psychological effect on large population. This is why it is usually a tool of the weak. In addition, suicide attacks are very devastating. It has been observed that suicide bombing is one of the most psychologically- effective methods because it communicates the message that there is no deterrent that can dissuade the attacker. Before suicide bombing become a vogue among groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Tamel Tigers in Sri Lanka in the 1980s, it was largely, and erroneously, assumed that, although willing to engage in extreme risk-taking behaviour, even terrorists put a certain premium on their own lives. However, as observed by some scholars, what may seem irrational at individual level may be quite logical at group level. That is, terrorist groups may benefit from the use of individual members to conduct suicide attacks whereas the individual conducting the attack may not know. Similarly, terrorist acts have negative effects on the economy at global level. Assessing the economic impact of terrorism has proven to be one of the most quantitatively-rigorous areas in terrorism studies. Economic damage has been an implicit or explicit motive behind several terrorist movements. Osama bin Laden drew lessons from the economic tool inflicted on the Soviet Union during its invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and advised his followers to conduct strikes on middle eastern oil facilities in hope of causing similar economic pain on the energy- reliant Western nations. Based on the logic that violence will 1 5 1 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson reduce an important source of revenue for the target government, many high-profile attacks are conducted at popular tourist destinations. Thus, an attack by terrorist in tourist destinations, cause the number of tourists visiting those countries to decrease. More importantly, terrorism has resulted in the massive destruction of lives and property across the globe. The terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in US in 2001 caused serious damage to lives and properties. Apart from damage to public and private buildings, terrorism has led to the destruction of infrastructural facilities ranging from rail lines and telephone lines through roads, bridges, to airports. These terrorist activities scare both domestic and external investors from investing their money and other resources in the economies of affected nations. Combating Terrorism There is no certain way to combat terrorism. Short-term measures include the tightening of security after specific terrorist warnings and the use of alert warnings in a particular country. However, the following strategies will reduce the growing threats of terrorism: 1. Domestic legislation: Over the last two decades, many democracies have enacted new laws or adapted old laws to deal more effectively with terrorists and terrorism. One approach adopted by democratic states has been to pass new legislation. For instance, in the United States skyjacking has been made a federal crime just as committing an act of violence against any airline passenger within the U.S or any American passenger outside the U.S. Another domestic legislation approach has been to proscribe membership in terrorist organisations. In Great Britain, specific 152 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplom acy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations terrorist groups were outlawed, including the Irish Republican Army (IRA) and the Irish National Liberation Army, as well as solicitation for these groups. In the same vein, Italy, France, the Netherlands, and Greece have passed laws banning terrorist groups besides criminalising membership in them. 2. Cooperation among Nations: International efforts to combat terrorism undertaken by the United Nations have proven ineffective, as have the regional approaches undertaken by the Organisation of American States (in 1971), and the Council of Europe (in 1977). In contrast, some bilateral agreements among allies, or among adversaries with similar interests, have proven more effective in curtailing terrorism. For instance, the 1973, agreement between the U.S and Cuba brought an end to a wave of skyjackings of American planes to Havana. Another example is the 1986 agreement between the U.S. and Great Britain to expand their extradition treaty by eliminating the political offence exemption for serious crimes of violence. After the 9/11 attack, the U.S. was able to gain the support and active cooperation of many governments, including Pakistan and Russia for her worldwide antiterrorist campaign. 3. Peace Talks: Peace talks have successfully ended a number of long-term terrorist campaigns. Confronted by the threat of continuing terrorism, elected politicians have to decide whether some of the grievances that drive ordinary people to join terrorist organisations are in any way justifiable and legitimate. They may have to accept causes for previous acts of terrorism without conceding to all uses of the violence in order to encourage parties to 153 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson start peace discussions. For instance, in the early 1990s, peace talks began in an attempt to resolve conflicts between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland. In December 1995, former U.S. Senator, George Mitchell, was appointed to serve as mediator and the talks resulted in the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. The agreement was a call for peace by the British and Irish governments and most of the main political parties in Northern Ireland, including Sinn Fein, the political arm of the Irish Republican Army (IRA). The negotiations saw Britain accepting that they could not defeat terrorism in Northern Ireland militarily. Despite being linked with terrorism for many years, Sinn Fein also concluded that they had more to gain by moving away from terrorism. 4. Private Measures: Private citizens and firms have developed strategies to protect themselves. Just as many governments were hardening’ their embassies and other overseas facilities in the 1980s and 1990s, private companies were spending billions of dollars annually on security services and hardware in the U.S and elsewhere. Most citizens cannot afford to hire private security, but public awareness can make the terrorist’s job a great deal more difficult. In Israel for example, where terrorism is a constant threat and everyone is acutely aware of it, officials claim that 80 per cent of bombs planted in public places are defused because suspicious objects are usually noticed and reported in time. Most security experts in the U.S. agree that any future success in countering terrorism will depend heavily on greater vigilance on the part of ordinary citizens as well as the government. Likewise, most commercial airline pilots agree that if hijacking stops, it will be because passengers are prepared to subdue terrorists, not because sky marshals happen to be on board. 154 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Dtplomac\. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations PICTORIAL EVENTS ON GLOBAL TERRORISM TERRORIST # tAyivl • WnmM 2£C xs:;l INCIDENTS MAP Crrt« ?S »if*iSt20n 2000-2013 155 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Ten T hreats to International Peace and Security Conceptualising Security Security means different things to different scholars. It is the safety from danger and protection of life and properties. The two traditions in the conception of security are traditional or state-centric and human security. The traditional security paradigm refers to a realist construct of security in which the referent object of security is the state. For almost half a century, major world powers entrusted the security of their nation to a balance of power among states. In this sense, international stability relied on the premise that if state security is maintained, the security of citizens will necessarily follow. In actual fact, the concept of national security is centred on state-centric paradigm. The term national security means different things to different people. For Maniruzzaman (1982:2), “national security is the protection and preservation of minimum core values of any nation: political independence and territorial integrity”. It has also been defined as the integrity of the national territory and its institutions (Morgenthau, 1966) while Orwa (1984) captures national security as “the protection of the national interests, including national values, political and economic ways of life, against internal and external threats and challenges”. Some of the measures that can be adopted to ensure national security are: using diplomacy to rally allies and isolate threats; maintaining effective armed forces; implementing civil defence and emergency preparedness measures (including anti-terrorism legislation); UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy Conflicts. Bargaining ana Peace Building m International Relations ensuring the resilience and redundancy of critical infrastructure; using intelligence services to detect or avoid threats and espionage and protect classified information; and using counter intelligence services or secret police to protect the nation from internal threats (Aondoakaa, 2008). However, as Cold War tensions recede, it becomes clear that the security of citizens is threatened by hardships arising from internal state activities as well as external aggressors. Civil wars are becoming increasingly common and compounding existing poverty, disease, hunger, violence and human rights abuses. Traditional or state-centric policies have effectively masked these underlying basic human needs in the face of state security. Through neglect of their constituents, nation-states have failed in their primary objective. Consequently, the traditional state-centric notion of security has been challenged by more holistic approaches to security, which is the perception of security from the human angle. This tradition seeks to acknowledge and address basic threats to human survival and safety. The justification for the human security approach is said to be that the traditional conception of security is no longer appropriate or effective in the highly interconnected and interdependent modem world in which global threats such as poverty, environmental degradation, and terrorism supersede the traditional security threats of interstate attack and warfare. The UNDP (1994) Human Development Report’s definition of human security argues that the scope of global security should be expanded to include threats in seven areas: (1 ) E c o n o m ic S e c u r ity : Economic security requires an assured basic income for individuals, usually from productive and 157 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY I down Johnson remunerative work or, as a last resort, from a publicly- financed safety net. In this sense, only about a quarter of the world’s people are presently economically secure. While the economic security problem may be more serious in developing countries, concern arises in developed countries as well. Unemployment problems constitute an important factor underlying political tensions and ethnic violence. (2 ) F o o d S e c u r ity : Food security requires that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to basic food. According to the United Nations, the overall availability of food is not a problem; rather, the problem often is the poor distribution of food and lack of purchasing power. (3 ) H e a lth S e c u r ity : Health security aims to guarantee a minimum protection from diseases and unhealthy lifestyles. (4 ) E n v ir o n m e n ta l S e c u r ity : Environmental security seeks to protect people from the short- and long-term ravages of nature, man-made threats in nature, and deterioration of the national environment. (5 ) P e r s o n a l S e c u r ity : Personal security is conceived to protect people from physical violence, whether from within the state or external states, or from violent individuals and sub-state actors like militia groups. (6 ) C o m m u n ity S e c u r ity : Community security aims to protect people from the loss of traditional relationships and values and from sectarian and ethnic violence. Traditional communities, particularly minority ethnic groups, are often threatened. About half of the world’s states have experienced some inter-ethnic strife. The United Nations declared 1993 the Year of Indigenous People to highlight 1 5 8 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in Internationa! Relations the continuing vulnerability of the 300 million aboriginal people in 70 countries as they face a widening spiral of violence. (7) Political Security: Political security is concerned with whether or not people live in a society that honours their basic human rights. For a nation to be secure, it must have a strong military force (well-trained, well-equipped with home-made modem weapon systems, disciplined, and professional); a strong and buoyant economy; a contented and happy people; and a good government run by a patriotic and democratic leadership. It is from thoughts in the combined military, political and socio-economic factors that the new school on national security emerged (Nwolise, 2006). Thus, national security is about the protection and enhancement of values against those that seek to limit or destroy their realisation. From the foregoing, it can be said that national security (traditional) and human security are two sides of a coin - both coexist and relate symbiotically. The point at issue is that both human and national securities reinforce each other. Without human security, traditional state security cannot be attained and vice-versa. It is also important to note that our understanding of security concept can be further enhanced when one considers security environments. The environments can be a village, national or international. The pertinent question is: How is national security different from regional and international security? The answer to this question lies in the fact that international security is the national 159 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY hi own Johnson security on the international scale or global arena, and the two terms are intertwined (Adedoyin, 2013). National Security: This is the ability to preserve the nation’s physical integrity and territory; maintain its economic relations with the rest of the world on reasonable terms; preserve its nature, institution, and governance from disruption from outside; and control its borders. Regional Security: Regional security arrangement where a group of countries, are bound together either by geography or interest in their common security is not novel to the field of security studies. Almost all the regions of the world such as Africa, Asia, and Europe have their respective regional security arrangements, for example NATO, SEATO, OSCE and ECOMOG (See more in chapter five). Regional security according to Abdel-Fatau Musah (cited in Adedoyin, 2013) is the common political, economic, and security arrangements that a contiguous transnational space of sovereign states with a degree of “pooled” sovereignty based on shared fears and expectations, may implement to promote mutual assistance and ensure the collective well-being of its population, institutions, and values, and their protection from perceived threats. International Security: International security consists of the measures taken by nations and international organisations, such as the United Nations to ensure mutual survival and safety. These measures include military action and diplomatic agreements such as treaties and conventions. Further, Buzan (cited in Adedoyin, 2013) views the study of international security as more than a study of 160 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts Bargaining and Peace Budding u International Relations threats, but also a study of which threats can be tolerated and which require immediate action. It suffices to say that the former United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Annan, posits that international security does not only include freedom from want, and freedom from fear but also the freedom of future generations to inherit a healthy natural environment which invariably constitutes the interrelated building blocks of human and national security. The question that easily arises is what does the future hold for international peace and security? However, international peace and security have rarely been so far away. Decision-makers, like persons in the street, feel equally at risk from random acts of violence. Threats to international peace and security stem from poverty, unemployment, inadequate health care, environmental degradation, nuclear weapons proliferation as well as ethnic and armed conflicts, transnational crimes and terrorism. It is very important to note that the list of what is perceived as threats to international peace and security is lengthy, therefore, in this chapter, the fundamental ones will be the focus of discussion. International peace and security consists of the measures taken by nations and international organisations, such as the United Nations, to ensure mutual survival and safety. International peace and security has remained essentially one of the most practical mechanisms used by the UN to contain international conflicts. The original idea devised by the UN to ensure the maintenance of international peace and security are outlined in chapters VI and VII of the UN charter. Chapter VI of the UN charter states that when a dispute arises between two states, the parties are obliged to seek solution by 161 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idown Johnson peaceful means, mainly through negotiations, enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, and resort to regional agencies or arrangements. On the other hand, if the peaceful means fail and the dispute escalates into an armed conflict, chapter VII comes into play. This chapter constitutes the core of UN collective security system. It provides that in case of a threat to peace, a breach of the peace and an act of aggression, the Security Council may take enforcement measures to restore the situation. These enforcement means may include arms embargo, economic sanctions, and use of force, as the last resort. Basically, international peace and security within the context of UN charter encourages states to use existing methods of peaceful settlement and by providing additional options found throughout the UN system. Therefore, the international norm of peaceful settlement is set forth in Article 2, paragraph 1, of the UN charter, which states that: All members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice are not endangered. International peace and security as a concept expands over the years; and it covers a variety of interconnected issues that have impact on survival in the world. It ranges from the traditional or conventional mode of military power, the causes and consequences of war between states, economic strength, to ethnic, religious and ideological conflicts, trade and economic conflicts, energy supplies, science and technology, food, as well as threats to human security and the stability of states from environmental degradation, 162 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY nous diseases, climate chance and the activities of ron-:ta‘: actors It: is important to understand international peace and security from the perspective of sovereign states and regions in relation to global stability. The United States is focusing on “renewing American leadership so that it can more effectively advance its interests*' under the international system by integrating all the elements of its power and means of defence, diplomacy and development to meet its objectives, including safety, welfare, values and a righteous international order. For China, international peace and security should be mutual while not one-sided, multilateral while not unilateral, and comparative while not absolute. International security should be based on mutual trust. A country’s role should be evaluated objectively and one country should not seek confrontation with another by exaggerating its threats. China treats safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, solving border disputes with its neighbours on the basis of equal negotiation and mutual trust. Also, having the ability to cope with traditional threats is ingrained in its security concept. Russia’s aim is to protect the interests of its people, societ\ and the nation in the wide security term. It will form a multipolar world on the basis of multilateral management of international economic, political, science and technological, environmental and information integration. In the world dominated by US-led unilateralism, Russia continues to play an important role in global processes by virtue of its great economic, scientific, technological 163 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY /i70*.v u Johnson and military potentials alongside its strategic location on the Eurasian continent. The Australian security concept is to safeguard the homeland, maintain regional and international stability, and ensure international economy and trade development to spread human rights and democracy. Similarly, Africa seeks to promote and maintain international peace and security and prosperity by having closer cooperation and partnership with the UN, other international organisations and the African Union. However, the core values of international peace and security as explicitly spelt out in the UN charter include: collective security, peacekeeping, preventive diplomacy, peacemaking, peace enforcement and peacebuilding. All these concepts are set out as an agenda for maintaining international peace and security. In this context, international stability relies on the premise that if state security is maintained, the security of citizens will necessarily follow. The following can be a source of threat to international peace and security: Separatist Conflict within States In world politics, distinct cultures come in contact, and the collision is expected to sparks communication and a healthy respect for diversity or the familiarity breeds contempt. When followers embrace ethnocentrism (the view that their own group’s values are inherently superior), animosity and disrespect for differences are especially characteristic, and persecution and killings often follow. Civilisations such as those of both the Western and the Islamic traditions tend to think of themselves ethnocentrically, which is why Samuel Huntington (1996) predicts that a clash of civilisation 164 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Dtp! iniac), C'onjncis. Bargaining and Peace Bunding in International Relations will dominate world politics. Another possibility is the rise of ethnic clashes within states, between tribes and religions. An epidemic of violent conflicts has erupted between nationalities whose identity is defined by a shared language, religion, or race. Most of these have affected the indigenous people of developing countries through state terrorism and ethnic cleansing. The predictable result is that many civil wars have erupted that threaten to break existing states into many new separate states. However, the dilemma created by the quest for independence around the globe is that it pits important values against one another. This phenomenon has been a threat to international peace and security. Health The state of medical care, sanitation, and other conditions related to health in some areas of the world is below a level imaginable by many people. While health care is well below Economic Developed Countries (EDC) standards in most Least Developed Countries (LDCs), it is in the LDCs that the greatest needs exist. The health of people within the LDCs is an issue of international concern. 'However, a healthy population is vital to economic growth because healthy people are economically productive and unhealthy people often consume more of a society’s resources than they produce. Similarly, the worldwide AIDS epidemic, for one, is a global killer. At the beginning of 2005, one of every 161 humans, about 39 million people, worldwide were HIV-positive. More than 20 per cent of the populations of seven sub-Saharan countries are HIV-positive, with Bostwana having an especially disturbing 39% 165 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson infection rate. Other emerging diseases are threatening to spread. SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) and West "Nile are also spreading. Neither of them is anywhere near as scary as the threat of avian influenza (avian flu or bird flu). In 2004, a flu outbreak in Southeast Asia was traced to a strain of avian flu that, unusually, had spread from domestic birds to humans in Asia. Only 130 cases were confirmed in 2004 and 2005, but 51 per cent of the sick died. WHO officials warn that if the disease spreads globally it might kill 50 million people within a year or two. In recent times, the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) has claimed a lot of lives in Liberia, Sierra- Leone, Guinea, Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria. The World Health Organisation has declared that more than 4,000 people have died from Ebola Virus Disease. It is necessary to state clearly here that such diseases are more than a just threat to individual health, they are a threat to national security. Disease burdens can in some cases be sufficiently severe to undermine economies and threaten social stability. Ethnic Conflicts Ethnic hatred is almost unquantifiable in the present international system. In recent decades, the world has witnessed the spectacle of several societies self-destructing, destabilising neighbouring states in the process, and even threatening world peace. The conflicts in the Balkans, Rwanda, Chechnya, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, and Darfur are among the best-known and deadliest examples. Ethnic conflicts are often accompanied by gross human rights violations such as genocide and crime against humanity, economic decline, state failure, environmental problems, and 166 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy Conjhcis, Bargaining and Peace Building ,n International Relations refugee flows. Violent ethnic conflict leads to tremendous human suffering. Despite the fact that the number of conflicts has declined over the past decades, ethnic turmoil remains one of the main sources of warfare and instability in major regions of the world. Between 1945 and 1990, nearly 100 ethnic groups were involved in violent conflicts. During the 1990s, about three quarters of conflicts were disputes between politically-organised ethnic groups and governments. More than one-third of the world’s states were directly affected by serious internal warfare in the 1990s, and of these states, nearly two-thirds experienced armed conflicts for seven years or longer. In 2006, all 32 ongoing conflicts were internal, five of them internationalised, and most caused by ethnic issues (Reuter, 2011: 141). Weapons of Mass Destruction Weapons of mass destruction comprise three types: nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. They are distinguished from conventional weapons by their enormous potential for damage, given their small size and modest costs; they also kill indiscriminately. When installed on ballistic missiles, they can potentially be fired from the home territory of one state and wreck great destruction in the territory of another state. It is notable that this has not occurred hitherto, but the mere threat of such action undermines the territorial integrity and security of states in the international system. The following are useful in explaining what constitutes weapons of mass destruction: 167 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson i) N u c le a r W ea p o n s: Nuclear weapons are, in sheer power, the world's most destructive weapons. A single weapon the size of a refrigerator can destroy a city. Defending against nuclear weapons is extremely difficult at best. To understand the potentials for nuclear proliferation, it is desirable to know something about how nuclear weapons work. There are two types: Fission weapons (atomic bombs) which are simpler and less expensive than fission weapons (also called thermonuclear bombs, hydrogen bombs, or H- bombs). The effects of nuclear weapons include not only the blast of the explosion, but also heat and radiation. The heat can potentially create a self-sustaining firestorm in a location. Radiation can cause radiation sickness -at high doses, it kills people in a few days; at low doses, it creates long-term health problems, especially cancers. ii) Chemical Weapons: A chemical weapon releases chemicals that disable and kill people. The chemicals vary from lethal ones such as nerve gas to merely irritating ones such as tear gas. Different chemicals interfere with the nervous system, blood, breathing, or other body functions. Some can be absorbed through the skin; others are inhaled. Chemical weapons by nature kill indiscriminately. Several times, chemical weapons have been deliberately used against civilians (notably by the Iraqi government against Iraqi Kurds in the 1980s). 168 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining ana Peace Building in International Relations iii) Biological Weapons: Biological weapons resemble chemical ones, but use deadly microorganisms or biologically-derived toxins. Some use viruses or bacteria that cause fatal diseases, such as small pox, bubonic plague, and anthrax. Others cause non-fatal, but incapacitating, diseases or diseases that kill livestock. Theoretically, a single weapon could set off epidemic in an entire population, but this would pose too great a danger, so less contagious microorganisms are preferred. Biological weapons have virtually never been used in war (Japan tried some on a few Chinese villages during World War II). Global Warming Many scientists believe while some disagree that the earth is experiencing a gradual pattern of global warming. The cause is said to be the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other gases, especially methane and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the upper atmosphere. This creates a blanket effect, trapping heat and preventing the nightly cooling of the earth. What must be considered is that the world has entered a period of chronic climatic instability, and it appears the effects of continued rising temperature are both dramatic and devastating. The point at issue is to identify the cause. As the globe heats up, so have the number of natural disasters: extreme rains, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and droughts. Sea levels could rise up to three feet, mostly because of melting glaciers and the expansion of water as it warms up. That will flood vast areas of 169 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY M own Johnson low-lying coastal land, including major river deltas; most of the beaches on the U.S. Atlantic coast; part of China: and the Maldives Islands, Seychelles, and Cook and Marshall Islands. More than one million people could be displaced, and 30 million would be put at risk of at least one flood per year. In addition, rainfall will increase globally, but only the areas already prone to flooding will flood more often and more severely, with deadly storms, such as the 1997 El Nino surge of storms in the Pacific, the flooding in the Dakotas, and the devastating Asian tsunami in December 2004 (this explains the heavy downpour in Ibadan in August 2011), becoming more common. Thus, the combination of flooding and droughts would cause tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue fever to flourish in previously temperate regions that were formerly too cold for the insects that carry them. As a way of conclusion, global warming is disruptive, and its adverse effects are projected to predominate for much of the world, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Transnational Threats Transnational threats are the roots of regional and global tensions. Drug trafficking and related transnational organised crime encourage money laundering and makes possible the financing of non-governmental armed groups. Organised crime networks threaten effective state control on borders and territories. Specifically, drug trafficking, owing to its link with illicit international networks, has become a key factor with regard to threats against international peace and security. In a recent report, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime revealed the role of drug trafficking in funding, not only the insurgency in Afghanistan, 170 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations but also extremist groups in a number of countries in central Asia. Terrorist networks finance their activities partially through drug trafficking, without the drug traffickers themselves necessarily being aware of it. The international community recognises the link between drugs and security in the political statement adopted at the 52nd session of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs (March, 2009). More important, drug trafficking is a global problem which threatens international peace and security. The Security Council repeatedly notes the role played by drug trafficking and organised crime in the emergence of conflicts in places such as Afghanistan, Haiti, and Guinea Bissau. Terrorism Terrorism poses a great threat to international peace and security. Since September 2001, governments and ordinary people have paid much more attention to terrorism than ever before. But terrorism itself is not new. The instruments of terror are varied and the motivations of terrorists diverse. What is terrorism? It refers to political violence that targets civilians deliberately and indiscriminately. Laquer (2006) portrays terrorism as: the use or threat of violence, a method of combat or a strategy to achieve certain goals, that its aims is to induce a state of fear in the victim, that it is ruthless and does not conform to humanitarian nonns, and that publicity is an essential factor in terrorist strategy. 171 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY tdo^u Johnson Beyond this basic definition, other criteria can be applied, but the definitions become political, making one person’s freedom fighter another’s terrorist. More than guerrilla warfare, terrorism is a shadowy world of faceless enemies and irregular tactics marked by extreme brutality. The purpose of terrorism is to demoralise a civilian population in order to use its discontent as leverage on national governments or other parties to a conflict. The primary effect of terrorism is psychological. In part the effectiveness of terrorism in capturing attention is due to the dramatic nature of the incidents, especially as shown on television news. Terrorism also gains attention because of the randomness of victims. Although only a few dozen people may be injured by a bomb left in a market, millions of people empathise with the victims (i.e. giving them the feeling of “it could have been me”) because they also go to markets. In the same vein, attacks on airplanes increase this fear because many people already fear flying. Thus, terrorism increases the strength of a small amount of power by its psychological effect on large populations. This is why it is usually a tool of the weak. Indeed, the number of people killed by terrorist attack rose in a proportionate manner. This adversely affects international peace and security. 172 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Eleven Peace Building in International Relations The Conceptual Origins of Peacebuilding The term peacebuilding originated in the field of peace studies more than 39 years ago. In 1975, Johan Galtung coined the term in his pioneering work, Three Approaches to Peace: Peacekeeping, Peacemaking, and Peacebuilding. In this article, he posits that "peace has a structure different from, perhaps over and above, peacekeeping and ad hoc peacemaking... The mechanisms that peace is based on should be built into the structure and be present as a reservoir for the system itself to draw up... More specifically, structures must be found that remove causes of wars and offer alternatives to war in situations where wars might occur." These observations constitute the intellectual antecedents of today's notion of peacebuilding, an endeavour aiming at creating sustainable peace by addressing the root causes of violent conflict and eliciting indigenous capacities for peaceful management and resolution of conflict. John Paul Lederach (2005), another key scholar in the field of peace studies, has called for expanding our understanding of peacebuilding. According to him, peacebuilding "is more than post­ accord reconstruction" and it "is understood as a comprehensive concept that encompasses, generates, and sustains the full array of processes, approaches, and stages needed to transform conflict toward more sustainable, peaceful relationships. The term thus involves a wide range of activities that both precede and follow formal peace accords. Metaphorically, peace is seen not merely as a UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ]do'\u Johnson stage in time or a condition. It is a dynamic social construct." Lederach speaks of conflict transformation as a holistic and multifaceted approach to managing violent conflict in all its phases. It signifies an ongoing process of change from negative to positive relations, behaviour, attitudes and structures. The integrated approach to peacebuilding must take into account the complex and multidimensional nature of the human experience and rely on broad social participation. A sustainable transformative approach suggests that the key lies in the relationship of the involved parties, with all that the term encompasses at the psychological, spiritual, social, economic, political and military levels. Cultivating an "infrastructure for peacebuilding means that "we are not merely interested in 'ending' something that is not desired. We are oriented toward the building of relationships that in their totality form new patterns, processes, and structures." Other scholars have been conducting research along similar lines since the 1980s. Meanwhile, throughout the world, well-known international NGOs, as well as local NGOs and community groups are working to help individuals, communities, and societies transform the way they perceive and manage conflicts - a core component of peacebuilding. But since the peacebuilding industry had not yet developed, these analyses and fieldwork are considered peripheral to international affairs, much like projects in human rights, civil society, and rural development undertaken by UN and bilateral development agencies. Today, each of these streams can be considered key areas that comprise overall efforts needed to ensure sustainable peace. 17 4 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY In practice, greater awareness of. and reliance on. peacebuilding approaches have much to do with the changing perceptions of decision-makers and analysts about contemporary wars. These differ fundamentally from the images of classical wars and decades of bipolar order. Whereas some scholars have shown the similarities between so-called old and new civil wars, part of the literature has been focusing on the changing nature of violent conflicts. Today's wars are sometimes portrayed as more violent and protracted as well as more destructive of social, political, and economic infrastructure, resulting in more civilian than combatant deaths. Research teams involved in extensive field research and epidemiological surveys have shown that such analyses are more often based on perceptions than on verified empirical data. The publication of the first Human Security Report, in 2005, has also fuelled the polemic. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the authors have documented a dramatic, but largely unknown, decline in the number of wars, genocides and human rights abuse over the past decade. They have also argued that, since the end of the Korean War in 1953, there has been a clear but uneven decline in battle- deaths around the world. The mere existence of such debates illustrates a greater awareness of the human cost of wars as well as their multiple impacts on societies and states, a diagnosis at the basis of peacebuilding efforts. Peacebuilding is a term descnbing interventions, designed to prevent the start or resumption of violent conflict, by creating a sustainable peace. Peacebuilding activities address the root causes or potential causes of violence, create a societal expectation for 1 7 5 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido^’u Johnson peaceful conflict resolution and stabilise society politically and socio-economically. The exact definition vanes depending on the actor, with some definitions specifying what activities fall within the scope of peacebuilding or restricting peacebuilding to post- conflict interventions. Civil society organisations began using the term peacebuilding in the 1970s. As the United Nations and governments began using the term, it has taken on different meanings. Common to all definitions is the agreement that improving human security is the central task of peacebuilding. Peacebuilding includes a wide range of efforts by diverse actors in government and civil society at the community, national and international levels to address the root causes of violence and ensure civilians have freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom from humiliation before, during, and after violent conflict. There are two broad approaches to peacebuilding. First, peacebuilding can refer to direct work that intentionally focuses on addressing the factors driving or mitigating conflict. When applying the term peacebuilding to this work, there is an explicit attempt by those designing and planning a peacebuilding effort to reduce structural or direct violence. Second, the term peacebuilding can also refer to efforts to coordinate a multi-level and multisectoral strategy, including ensuring that there is funding and proper communication and coordination mechanisms between humanitarian assistance, development, governance, security, justice and other sectors that may not use the term "peacebuilding" to describe themselves. While some use the term to refer to only post-conflict or post-war contexts, most use the term more broadly to refer to any 176 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY D.pl^moc v. t onfiicis. Bargaining ami Peace Buddm? m !'<;( ''national Feint ions stage of conflict. Before conflict becomes violent, preventive peacebuilding efforts, such as diplomatic, economic development, social, educational, health, legal and security sector reform programmes address potential sources of instability and violence. This is also termed conflict prevention. Peacebuilding efforts aim to manage, mitigate, resolve and transform central aspects of the conflict through official diplomacy as well as through civil society peace processes and informal dialogue, negotiation, and mediation. Peacebuilding addresses economic, social and political root causes of violence and fosters reconciliation to prevent the return of structural and direct violence. Peacebuilding efforts aim to change beliefs, attitudes and behaviours to transform the short and long term dynamics between individuals and groups towards a more stable, peaceful coexistence. Peacebuilding is an approach to an entire set of interrelated efforts that support peace. In 2007, the UN Secretary-General’s Policy Committee defined peacebuilding as follows: "Peacebuilding involves a range of measures targeted to reduce the risk of lapsing or relapsing into conflict by strengthening national capacities at all levels for conflict management, and to lay the foundations for sustainable peace and development. Peacebuilding strategies must be coherent and tailored to specific needs of the country concerned, based on national ownership, and should comprise a carefully prioritized, sequenced, and therefore relatively narrow set of activities aimed at achieving the above objectives." Although many of the aims of peacebuilding overlap with those of peacemaking, peacekeeping and conflict resolution, it is a distinct idea. Peacemaking involves stopping an ongoing conflict, 177 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdowu Johnson whereas peacebuilding happens before a conflict starts or once it ends. Peacekeeping prevents the resumption of fighting following a conflict; it does not address the underlying causes of violence or work to create societal change, as peacebuiding does. It also differs from peacebuilding in that it only occurs after conflict ends, not before it begins. Conflict resolution does not include some components of peacebuilding, such as state-building and socio­ economic development. Recent developments show that peacebuilding reflection is evolving in the UN itself. For instance, the UN Peacekeeping Capstone Doctrine prepared by DPKO aims to set out the guiding principles and core objectives of United Nations peacekeeping operations as well the main factors contributing to their success in the field. The document, United Nations Peacekeeping Operations: Principles and Guidelines, approved on January 18, 2008, outlines its definition of peacebuilding: "Peace-building involves a range of measures aimed at reducing the risk of lapsing or relapsing into conflict, by strengthening national capacities for conflict management, and laying the foundations for sustainable peace”. It is a complex, long-term process aimed at creating the necessary conditions for positive and sustainable peace by addressing the deep-rooted structural causes of violent conflict in a comprehensive manner. Peacebuilding measures address core issues that affect the functioning of society and the state. In this regard, they seek to enhance the capacity of the state to effectively and legitimately carry out its core functions. Peacebuilding is undertaken by an array of UN and non-UN actors, including the UN agencies, funds and programmes, the International Financial Institutions and NGOs (Herr and Herr, 1998). 178 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations In May 2007, the UN Secretary-General's Policy Committee agreed on the following conceptual basis for peacebuilding to inform UN practice: "Peacebuilding involves a range of measures targeted to reduce the risk of lapsing or relapsing into conflict by strengthening national capacities at all levels for conflict management, and to lay the foundations for sustainable peace and development. Peacebuilding strategies must be coherent and tailored to specific needs of the country concerned, based on national ownership, and should comprise a carefully prioritized, sequenced, and therefore relatively narrow set of activities aimed at achieving the above objectives. Peacebuilding is a process that facilitates the establishment of durable peace and tries to prevent the recurrence of violence by addressing root causes and effects of conflict through reconciliation, institution building, and political as well as economic transformation." For countries emerging from conflict, peacebuilding offers the chance to establish new institutions, social, political and judicial that can give impetus to development. Pulling up the roots of conflict goes beyond immediate post-conflict requirements and the repair of war-tom societies. The underlying conditions that led to conflict must be addressed. As the causes of conflict are varied, so must be the means of addressing them. Peacebuilding means fostering a culture of peace. Land reform, water-sharing schemes, common economic enterprise zones, joint tourism projects and cultural exchanges can make a major difference. Restoring employment growth will be a strong inducement to the young to abandon the vocation of war (An Agenda for Development, 1994). 179 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY iiiowu Johnson Components of Peacebuilding The tasks included in peacebuilding vary depending on the situation and the agent of peacebuilding. Successful peacebuilding activities create an environment supportive of self-sustaining, durable peace; reconcile opponents; prevent conflict from restarting; integrate civil society; create rule of law mechanisms; and address underlying structural and societal issues. To accomplish these goals, peacebuilding must address functional structures, emotional conditions and social psychology, social stability, rule of law and ethics, and cultural sensitivities. Pre-conflict peacebuilding interventions aim to prevent the start of violent conflict. These strategies involve a variety of actors and sectors in order to transform the conflict. Even though the definition of peacebuilding includes pre-conflict interventions, in practice most peacebuilding interventions are post-conflict. However, many peacebuilding scholars advocate an increased focus on pre-conflict peacebuilding in the future. There are many different approaches to categorisation of forms of peacebuilding among scholars. Barnett et al divides post­ conflict peacebuilding into three dimensions: stabilising the post­ conflict zone, restoring state institutions and dealing with social and economic issues. Activities within the first dimension reinforce state stability, post-conflict and discourage former combatants from returning to war (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration, or DDR). Second dimension activities build state capacity to provide basic public goods and increase state legitimacy. Programmes in the third dimension build a post-conflict society's ability to manage conflicts peacefully and promote socio-economic development. 1 8 0 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY m e n s i o n 2 n d D i m e n s i o n 3 r d D i m e n s i o n Taking e Rebuilding Trauma 6 Gender away basic counselling empowerment weapons facilities. Transitional ® Raising Re- transportation justice and environmental integratin and restoration awareness g former communicatio Community • Promoting combatant n networks, dialogue economic s into utilities Building developmentcivilian © Developing society bridges • Developing arule of law between civil society systems and different and private public communities administration sector that can Increasing represent• Building educational human rights diverse interests and and health challenge the infrastructure state o Providing peacefully technical and capacity­ building assistance for institutions o Creating legitimate (democratic, accountable) state institutions UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Irfov.u Johnson A mixture of locally and internationally-focused components is key to building a long-term sustainable peace. Mac Ginty states that while different indigenous communities utilise different conflict resolution techniques, most of them share the common characteristics described in the table above. Since indigenous peacebuilding practices arise from local communities, they are tailored to local context and culture in a way that generalised international peacebuilding approaches are not. Local, customary and traditional International • Respected local figures • Top-down: engages with • Public dimension national elites, not locals • Storytelling and airing of • Exclusive: deals are made grievances behind closed doors • Emphasis on relationships • Technocratic/a historical • Reliance on local resources basis: emphasis on 'striking a deal', 'moving on' • Modelled on corporate culture: reaching a deal, meeting deadlines prioritised over relations ® Relies on external personnel, ideas and material resources Beyond Peacekeeping: Challenges of Post-conflict Reconstruction and Peacebuilding in Africa Peacekeeping has occupied a central place in United Nations activities in the last decade or so and was given added prominence following the adoption in 2000 of the Report of the Panel on United Nations Peace Operations, known as the Brahimi Report. 182 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Budding m International Relations Scores of peacekeeping missions have been mounted in trouble spots worldwide; in Africa, the majority of operations were conducted in situations of internal conflict. While such intervention has led to cessation of hostilities, it has neither necessarily resulted in permanent peace nor fully addressed the factors that led to the conflict in the first place. The reasons for this shortcoming have to do with the causes of the conflict, the peacekeeping mandates, the structure and composition of the missions, and the perceived role of the United Nations in mediation. Many conflicts remain only superficially resolved, with all the elements for a relapse remaining intact. In fact, in some countries hostilities flared as soon as the United Nations left, as was the case in the Central African Republic and Haiti. The United Nations must find a formula that will allow a successful transition from peacekeeping to peacebuilding and consolidation. But it is not presently structured to easily identify where to place this mandate within the Organisation. The Security Council’s mandate is clearly defined and limited to issues of global security, and peacebuilding goes beyond the need to secure the peace. It encompasses interventions that derive from a development mandate, which is the purview of the Economic and Social Council. This gap has been recognised over the years, leading to serious reflection on what is needed to invest the United Nations with the capability and capacity not only to make the peace but also maintain and sustain it. UN peacekeeping missions in internal conflicts are mounted when there has been a near-total breakdown of law and order : Governments have lost control; civilians are at the mercy of the 183 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson warring parties; women, children and other vulnerable groups face extreme hardships; and there appears to be no end in sight. In many cases, government security capabilities would have been completely lost, and peacekeeping missions would be expected to provide security, secure public institutions and perform civilian police functions. The UN mission would have to monitor and enforce ceasefire and, if necessary, organise discussions or meetings, even if the mediators might be external actors. The mission is the eyes and ears of the international community in the conflict area and as such must constantly monitor the situation and present regular reports to the UN Security Council. Civil wars mark the collapse of a state’s ability to maintain social order through peaceful means. To prevent wars from recurring, new social, economic, and political arrangements must be found that are acceptable not only to the elite present at the peace table, but also to all members of the society. Doing so gives ordinary people an active stake in the transition to a more just society and provides some means for people to protect themselves, their communities, and their country from injustices that can lead back to war. 1 84 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Chapter Twelve Conclusion International Relations, as a discipline, has developed sophisticated approaches for explaining international conflicts. This book examined major themes in international conflict, bargaining and negotiation. The discourse began with conceptual and theoretical analysis of conflict and then considered several explanations for national and international conflicts. Although the Cold War ended more than two decades ago, internal conflicts and terrorism remain disturbing features of contemporary international relations. In an effort to explore the phenomenon of conflict, this book has attempted to explain the nature, causes, and its consequences. O f course, the causes of conflict can be located at individual, state and international levels. However, internal conflict is of great concern for two obvious reasons. First, internal conflict can be enormously destructive and long-lasting, taking a large toll on society in terms of the loss of life, the breakdown of civilian infrastructure, enduring conditions of poverty, underdevelopment and diversion of developmental resources to war fighting or crisis containment. Second, internal conflicts are very difficult to resolve, making the history of internal conflict a tragic one, and may finally provoke conflict between states. Most of the major issues identified as the causes of international conflicts range from imperialism, religious extremism, economic competition, ethnic hostility, territorial acquisition, UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson prestige of state leaders as well as ideological factor arising from capitalism versus socialism. Thus, the international system is facing a great security dilemma. In this regard, the United Nations Charter identifies international peace and security as the organisation’s first goal; indeed, the UN founders wanted the organisation to play a central role in collective security. It would be recalled that collective security means that all members have agreed to oppose together a threat to security of any of them. Clearly, many states embrace the bargaining model of conflict, which sees conflict as a product of rational choice. The decision to engage in conflict is part of the bargaining process that occurs between adversaries to settle disputes and disagreements over contentious issues. Bargaining is a major way of resolving conflict. It begins by identifying states’ interests rather than their positions. For successful conflict resolution, the parties involved must be willing to confront the issues in rational atmosphere of some mutual respect and open communication. While bargaining is necessary in conflict resolution, it should however be avoided as observed by Burton (1990). Burton’s position is that conflicts are based on misunderstandings and the important thing is to get people to discuss face-to-face. In doing this, states often engage themselves in negotiation through diplomatic persuasion. To be sure, both bargaining, diplomacy and negotiation are very useful in resolving a conflict of interests peacefully. In short, diplomacy produces the enormous advantages obtainable from the cooperative pursuit of common interests and prevents violence from being employed to settle arguments over conflicting issues. 186 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, C c k j 'ic is . Bcrgoiiang ana Peace Bviidmg c: International Relations Threats to global peace and security have been persistent and chronic. The primary threats to nation’s peace and security no longer emanate solely from territorial and ideological disputes among nation-states, but also from the environment, globalisation, technological threats and international cnminal networks. Also, global history has been replete with wars fought by some nations that gave rise to destruction of lives and properties, rape, mutilations, trauma, pains, anger, displacement of persons, refugee crises, neglect, poverty, insecurity and terrorism. Specifically, terrorism has haunted the global political landscape. Terrorism has imposed a new strategic climate on the global system by making every human a potential victim of its various forms. The United States Department has listed 44 foreign terrorist organisations. Some are motivated by religion (for example, al Qaeda), others by class ideology (for example, Shining Path in Peru) or by ethnic conflict and nationalism (for example, Basque Fatherland and Liberty). Undoubtedly, the entire nations of the world frown at terrorist attacks. Since September 11 2001 attack on the World Trade Centre in the U.S., government and ordinary people have paid much more attention to terrorism than ever before. To counteract the threat of terrorism, countries are adopting more stringent and sometimes controversial measures, to protect their boundaries and keep their citizens safe. While the act of terrorism is very difficult to combat, some countries deploy measures in preventing the menace. However, terrorism cannot be eliminated unless the conditions that cause it are first corrected. In other words, circumstances of misery, poverty, injustice, persecution, and marginalisation pave the way for the outbreak of terrorist acts, and 187 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY j'dowu Johnson long-term solution can be found in alleviating suffering and despair among desperate people and reducing their grievances. More importantly, fears that the misconduct of statesmen, duplicitous diplomacy and devotion to warped causes might again trigger a major global catastrophe are increasing by the day. The recent crises in Middle East (Israeli/Palestinian conflicts), Eastern Europe, Asia, and North Africa are signs that trouble abound in the present international system. The tension has never been this much since the Cold War ended over two decades ago. This ugly situation, therefore, has put to test, the relevance of the United Nations. These drumbeats of war should force the UN to lubricate its dispute-resolution mechanism for effective utilisation. As the UN Charter states, it investigates crisis or any situation likely to lead to international friction that might endanger global peace and security and acts accordingly. It is also empowered to enforce its decisions militarily, where necessary. But the UN’s glaring failure to prevent a series of regional crises has put humanity on edge. It is apposite then that a self re-examination of its structure has become imperative. It is by so doing that it will become more of a conflict- resolution vehicle than a humanitarian champion. Unfortunately, the body is being weighed down by its own internal contradictions. Its Security Council where the US, China, Russia, Britain and France sit magisterially as permanent members, with the right to veto any decision, has become an albatross. This power, often abused in pursuit of narrow national interests, is a big threat to international peace and security. Quite obviously, the five so-called superpowers are no longer in exclusive control of the world. Therefore, the veto power should move with democratic process. 1 8 8 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations Finally, the U N should emphasise on peacebuilding. The tasks included in peacebuilding vary depending on the situation and the agent o f peacebuilding. Successful peacebuilding activities create an environm ent supportive o f self-sustaining, durable peace; reconcile opponents; prevent conflict from restarting; integrate civil society; create rule of law mechanisms; and address underlying structural and societal issues. To accomplish these goals, peacebuilding must address functional structures, democratic power-monopolising tendencies, emotional conditions and social psychology, social stability, social injustices, rule of law and ethics, and cultural sensitivities. Understanding the multifarious nature of global crises should strengthen the international community’s resolve to deploy all the resources at its disposal towards their resolution. 189 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Bibliography Adedoyin, A. (2013). An Appraisal of the Multidimensional Nature of Security in the Post Cold War Africa, African Journal of Stability and Development, Vol. 7. no. 2. pp. 113-130. Adeniran, Tunde (1982). Introduction to International Relations. Lagos: Macmillan. Adesoji, A.O. and Alao, A. (2009). “Indigeneship and Citizenship in Nigeria; Myth and Reality”, The Journal of Pan African Studies, vol. 2. No. 9, p. 152. Akinboye, S. 0 . and F. O. Ottoh (2005). A systematic Approach to International Relation. Lagos: Concept Publications. Aondoakaa, M.K. (2008). “The Executive, Legislative and Judiciary vis-a-vis National Security”, Lecture Delivered at the National Defence College, Abuja, on 12th February. Bennett, S. and A. C. Stam (2004). The Behavioural Origins of War. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Burchill, S. et al (eds) (2005). Theories of International Relations. New York: Palgrave. Burton, J.W. (1990). Conflict: Resolution and Prevention. New York: St Martins. Cincotta, R. P. and R. Engelman (2005). “Conflict Thrives Where Young Men Are Many”, International Herald Tribune, March (18). Claude, I. L. Jr. (1989). “The Balance of Power Revisited”. Review of International Studies, (15) 77-85. Crenshaw, M. (1981). “The Causes of Terrorism”, Comparative Politics. Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 379-399. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY T n Loi:UiC!S, B.j gL.:‘iti and Defence, No. 25. 192 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY M arshall. T.H. (1964). C la s s . C i t i z e n s h ip a n d S o c ia l D e v e l o p m e n t : L o r d a n d P e a s a n t in th e M a k i n g o f th e M o d e r n W o r ld . New York: Doubledav Sz Company. Morgan, P. (1984). Theories and Approaches to International Politics: What are We to Think. London: Transaction Books. Morgenthau, H. (1968). Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Peace and Power, New York: Knopf. Nwolise, O.B.C. (2006). “National Security and Sustainable Democracy”, in E.O. Ojo (ed.) Challenges of Sustainable Demcoracy in Nigeria, Ibadan: John Archers. Olaniyan, A.O. (2007). “Citizenship in Nigeria: A Conceptual Analysis”, Nigerian Journal of Policy and Development, Vol. 5 & 6, p. 77. Organski, A.F.K. (1958). World Politics. Knopf. Orwa, D. (1984). National Security: An African Perspective”, In B. Arlinghaus (ed.), African security Issues: Sovereignty, Stability and Solidarity, Colorado: West View' Press. Palmer, N. D. and Perkin, H. C. (2005). International Relations: The World Community in Transition. New Delhi: AITBS Publishers. Pettersen, A. (1996). Crisis Bargaining and the State: Domestic Politics of International Conflict. Michigan: Michigan University Press. Pogoson, A.I. (2013). Nigeria’s National Security' in the Age of Terrorism. Ibadan: Department of Political Science Lecture. Powell, R. (2002). “Bargaining Theory and International Conflict”.Annual Review of Political Science, 5 : 1 - 30. 193 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Marsha'l. T.H. ( 19 -̂D C la s s . C i t i z e n s h i p a n d Soc i ;l I )c v d o p m a t L o r d a n d P e a s a n t m the M a k i n g o ’ t h e M o d e m W o r l d . Nev. York: Doubleday K Company Morgan, P. (1984). Theories and Approaches to Internationa] Politics: What are We to Think. London: Transaction Books. Morgenthau, H. (1968). Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Peace and Power, New York: Knopf. Nwolise, O.B.C. (2006). “National Security and Sustainable Democracy*', in E.O. Ojo (ed.) Challenges of Sustainable Demcoracy in Nigeria, Ibadan: John Archers. Olaniyan, A.O. (2007). “Citizenship in Nigeria: A Conceptual Analysis”, Nigerian Journal of Policy and Development. Vol. 5 & 6, p. 77. Organski, A.F.K. (1958). World Politics. Knopf. Orwa, D. (1984). National Security: .An African Perspective”, In B. Arlinghaus (ed.), African security Issues: Sovereignty, Stability and Solidarity, Colorado: West View Press. Palmer, N. D. and Perkin, H. C. (2005). International Relations: The World Community in Transition. New Delhi: AITBS Publishers. Pettersen, A. (1996). Crisis Bargaining and the State: Domestic Politics of International Conflict. Michigan: Michigan University Press. Pogoson, A.I. (2013). Nigeria's National Security in the Age of Terrorism. Ibadan: Department of Political Science Lecture. Powell, R. (2002). “Bargaining Theory and International Conflicr.Annual Review of Political Science, 5: l -3 0 . 193 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido'^u Johnson Reiter. D. (2003). “Exploring the Bargaining Model of war”. Perspective on Politics, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp 27 - 43. Rinyom, J.D. (2012). “Indigeneship, Citizenship and the lost Nigerianship: An Unpopular Essay”, www.gamjii.com/ article, retrieved 25 September, 2012. Rouke, J. T. (2007). International Politics on the World Stage. New York: McGraw Hill Higher Education. Rupesinghe, K. (1998). Civil Wars, Civil Peace: An Introduction to Conflict Resolution. London: Pluto Press. Russet, B. Starr, H. and Kinsella, D. (2006). World Politics: The Menu for Choice. Belmont, CA: Thomson Wadsworth. Schelling, T. (1960). The Strategy of Conflict. New Haven: Yale University Press. Shlaim, A. (2005). “The Rise and Fall of the Oslo Peace Process”. In Fawcett: International Relations of the Middle East, Oxford: Oxford University Press. UNDP Human Development Report (1994) Van Brabank, K. (2011). “International Dialogue on Peacebuilding and Statebuilding”. Civil Society Paper on Political Dialogue Geneval Brussels, Interpeace. Vasquez, J. A. and Elman, C. (ed.) (2003). Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate. Upper Saddle River, N. J. Prentice Hall. Walker, G. (2011). Definitions of Conflict: An Academic Sampler www.campus.adr.org Walter, B. F. (2009). “Bargaining Failures and Civil War”. Annual Review of Political Science. Vol. 12:243 -261. Waltz, K. (2001). Man, State and War: A Theoretical Analysis. New York: Columbia University Press. 194 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY D.p'cm ac), Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building m International Relations Wittman. D. (2009). ‘'Bargaining in the Shadow of War: When is a Peaceful Resolution More Likely?” American Journal of Political Science, 53 (3): 588 - 602. Woodcock, G. (1983). Anarchism: A History> of Libertarian Ideas and Movements. New York: Penguin Books. World Issues (2010). Terrorism New Delhi: S. Chand Publishing. Zimako, O. Z. (2007). “The Universality of Conflict Resolution: Bridging with Communication and Compromise”, Nigerian Journal of Policy and Development, Vol. 5 and 6. Ziring, L. R. E. Riggs and J.C. Piano (2003). The United Nations: International Organization and World Politics. Bolmon, CA: WardsworthCengage Learning. 195 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Index A academ ics. 147 A cadem ic Sam ple, 6 -7 action courses of, 59, 63 terro rist, 141 activ ities, incom patible, 6 -7 acto rs, 12, 15-16 , 28, 34, 58, 61, 65, 121, 123, 125-26, 141, 150, 177, 181 add ition , 1 ,3 ,4 6 - 4 7 ,5 2 ,7 8 - 7 9 , 85 -86 , 96, 112, 114, 120, 153, 171 A dedoy in , 160-61 adu lts, young, 32 -33 adversaries, 50, 53, 56 -5 7 , 69, 97, 106, 155, 187 A fghan istan , 28, 153, 171-72 A frica , 48, 101, 139, 149-50, 161, 165, 184 A frican countries, 46, 82, 137 A frican leaders, 138 A frican N ational Congress (A N C), 129 A frican standby force (A SF), 90 agen ts , 143, 145 aggression , 19-20 , 87, 94, 96, 143, 163 ag reem ents , 21, 3 5 -3 6 , 77 -79 , 8 2 -8 3 , 91, 104-5, 111-12 , 136, 155 -56 , 177 agricu ltu re , 46 A lb an ia , 47 , 8 8 -8 9 A lgeria , 30, 151-52 alliance decisions, 94 alliance form ation, 9 3 -9 4 a lliances, 57, 89, 9 2 -9 7 , 106 allies, 9 2 -9 5 ,9 7 - 9 9 , 125, 144, 155 A m erican m ilitary expenditure, 74 analysis, theoretical, 1, 186 analysts , 52, 176 anarch ism , 2 4 -2 5 A ngo la , 137 an ti-personnel landm ines (A PLs), 83 apartheid , 128-29 A P L s (an ti-personnel landm ines), 83 app lication , 37, 62, 102, 114, 119, 151 approaches, 2 1 -2 2 , 50, 52, 57, 59, 65, 86, 95, 103, 154, 174, 177-78 , 181, 186 A rab -Is rae li and Israe li-P a lestin ian conflict, 130, 131 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations A rab /Israe li conflict. 21, 132 A rabs, 131 -32 a rm am en ts , 6 9 -7 0 , 97 a rm ed conflic ts , 39, 87, 162-63, 168 in ternal, 27, 37 arm ed g roups, non-governm ental, 171 arm s, 52, 6 9 -7 0 , 87, 114-15 nu c lea r, 74, 76 arm s con tro l, 69, 77, 79, 83, 85 a rm s race, 16, 5 1 -5 2 , 60, 69 -71 , 85, 126 nuc lear, 71 , 7 8 ,1 2 6 A sia , 7 3 - 7 4 ,1 6 1 ,1 6 7 ,1 7 2 ,1 8 9 asp ira tio n s, 7 A ssem b ly , 128-29 A ssem b ly o f H eads o f State and G overnm ents (AHSG), 90 assu m p tio n s , 11, 14, 19, 43, 50, 52, 60, 64, 95, 119 a ttacks, 51, 73, 75, 86, 88, 92, 95 -96 , 125, 128, 145-46, 148-49, 152-55 , 173, 188 A U (A frican U nion), 90, 118, 165 av ian flu , 167 B ba lan ce , 16, 92, 9 5 ,9 8 -9 9 B alan ce o f pow er, 95 b a lan ce o f po w er policy, 86 b a lan ce -o f-p o w er system , 99 b a lan ce-o f-p o w er theory, 96, 98-99 c lassic , 96 b a lan ce-o f-p o w er theory assum ptions, 98 ban , 8 3 -8 4 , 129 bargain , 5 4 -5 5 , 57 B argain ing , 6, 50, 5 2 -5 3 , 55 -5 6 , 105, 121, 175, 177, 179, 181, 183, 185-87 , 189 B argain ing and Peace B uilding in In ternational Relations, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 1 9 ,2 1 ,2 3 ,2 5 ,2 7 , 29 ,31 barga in ing process, 50, 55, 187 behav iour, 12, 17, 20, 53, 62, 66, 68, 85, 9 2 -9 3 , 98, 175, 178 ra tional, 54 B elg ium , 88, 139 197 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY . iU u Jo',]KS(V. beliefs. 7 .1 1 . 25, 42. 45. 64. 145 belligerents, 3 5 -3 7 , 50 b io log ica l agents, 7 6 -7 7 , 80 B oko H aram , 151-52 bom bers, 73-74 bom bing , suicide, 153 bo rders , 4 5 -4 6 , 122, 142, 151, 161, 171 in ternational, 4 6 -4 7 boundaries, national, 142-43 bourgeo isie , 14 B u lgaria , 88 -89 bu lle ts , 75 B urke, 3 8 -3 9 business, 2, 36, 41, 117 C cam paign , w orldw ide antiterrorist, 155 capab ilities, 14-15 , 55, 61, 73, 75, 95, 117, 123, 125, 184 governm ent security , 185 cap italism , 1 3 -1 4 ,4 1 , 187 cap ita lists , 24, 41, 48 ceasefire , 91, 131, 133-34 , 139, 185 celestia l bodies, 80 cen tu ry , 71, 90, 95, 1 15-16 , 130, 157 C hallenges o f Post-conflict, 183 channels, 106 checkm ate, 59 C hem ical and B iological T errorism , 149 chem icals, 169 C hem ical W eapons C onvention (C W C ), 79, 82 C hina, 64, 72, 116, 118, 124-25 , 164, 171, 189 c itizens, 33, 150, 156-58 , 165, 188 civ ilians, 83 -84 , 138, 141, 143, 146, 169, 177, 185 civ ilisations, 43, 165 civil society peace processes, 178 civil strife, 32, 139 civ il w ars, 2 7 -3 0 , 3 2 -3 4 , 47, 66, 87, 137-38 , 147, 158, 166, 176 c lash , 43, 104, 165-66 classes, 1 3 ,2 3 ,4 7 , 75 -76 1 9 8 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy Conflicts Bargaining and Deace Building in Inta national Relation.* ruling. 14 coerce. 10S. 110, 142 C old W ar, 19, 36, 45, 71. 75. 77-7S, SS, 11S-19, 126-27, 15S, 186, 1S9 collective security, 85 -87 , 90, 94, 165, 187 regionally-based, 85 collective security system , 86, 87, 163 com bat terrorism , 140, 154 com m on security threat, 92 com m onw ealth , 26 com m unication , 7, 106, 108-10, 1 14, 116, 121-22, 177 com m unities, 10, 42, 175, 177, 182, 185 com pellence, 125 com petition , 2, 7 -8 , 19, 30, 39, 48, 50, 56, 96, 109, 124 econom ic, 17, 40, 47, 186 com petitors, 2, 56 -57 com pliance, 126 C onditions o f Conflict, 8 conduct, 53, 61, 65, 102, 120, 135 conduct o f diplom acy, 103, 106 conflic t escalation, 109, 141 conflictive, 16 conflic t m anagem ent, 112, 121-22, 178-80 C onflic t M anagem ent and Conflict Resolution, 121 conflic t outbreak, 4, 121 conflic t prevention, 37 term ed, 178 conflic t resolution, 52, 108-9, 121-23, 126, 128, 174, 178-79, 187 peacefu l, 176 conflic t resolution procedures, 112 conflic t resolution techniques, 183 conflicts, 1-1 1, 13-27, 2 9 -3 3 ,3 5 - 4 1 ,4 3 ,4 5 -5 1 ,5 3 ,9 1 , 107-15, 121-23, 125- 27, 1 6 7 -6 9 ,1 7 3 -7 5 ,1 7 7 -8 1 , 183-87 civil, 32, 87 com m unal, 49 contem porary , 36 dom estic, 38 econom ic, 163 ideological, 163 im perialist, 41 199 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idowu Johnson lo ca l, 7 6 lo n g -ru n n in g , 76 lo n g -te rm , 134 m itig a tin g , 177 p o litic a l, 27 , 49 p o te n tia l, 105 p ra c titio n e rs of, 1, 121 p ro v o k e , 27 , 186 re lig io u s , 30, 45 re so lv in g , 107, 187 study , 10 tre a ted , 38 c o n flic t s itu a tio n , 8, 22, 50, 5 5 -5 7 , 108, 123 c o n flic t sp rin g in g , 39 co n flic t tran sfo rm atio n , 175 c o n flic tu a l re la tionsh ip , 141 C o n g o , 2 8 , 1 37 -38 C o n g o le se C ivil W ar, 137-38 co n stra in ts , 6 1 -6 2 co n tin en t, 1 4 9 -5 0 , 152 co n tro l, 9 , 13, 22, 38, 45, 68, 77, 85, 87, 91, 93, 129-31 , 139, 161 co n v en tio n , 82, 129, 143, 161 co n v en tio n a l w eapons, 81 -82 , 148, 168 C o n v en tio n a l W eapons Terrorism , 148 costs , 46 , 54, 5 9 -6 0 , 93, 126, 168 co u n tries , 2 0 -2 3 , 3 0 -3 3 ,4 4 , 4 6 -5 0 , 7 7 -78 , 8 9 -9 0 , 101, 1 0 3 -4 , 107, 116-20 , 124, 1 3 8 -3 9 , 150-51, 159-61 , 180 a llied , 70 com m unist, 67 d evelop ing , 76, 159, 166 m em ber, 88 rich , 47 signato ry , 79 sub-S aharan , 166 w ar-tom , 139 coun tries arm , 69 countries hostilities, 184 coups, 30 crim es, o rganised , 91, 171-72 crises, 23 , 26, 34, 40, 62, 68, 106, 126, 139, 189 200 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relation cris is decisions, 62 C ritics o f ba lance-o f-pow er theory, 98 C ro a tia , 8 8 -8 9 c ro p lan d , 32 C uba, 62, 74, 155 C u b an M issile C risis, 61, 63, 74, 78 cu ltu re , 40, 4 4 ,4 8 , 97, 102, 112, 180, 183 cy b er-te rro rism , 149 C zech R epublic , 8 8 -8 9 D death , 3 2 ,3 5 , 6 8 ,7 7 , 136, 143, 151 d ec is io n m akers, 59, 61, 64, 67 d ecisions, 6, 5 0 -5 1 ,5 4 - 5 5 ,5 7 -5 9 , 6 2 -6 3 ,6 7 , 90, 94, 108, 114, 135, 187, 189 ad m in istra tive , 62 d ec is io n unit, 6 1 -6 2 u ltim ate , 61 d e fen ce , 54, 65, 85, 88 -89 , 9 2 -9 3 , 164 defin itio n s em phasise terro rism ’s use, 140 deg ree , 2 1 ,5 5 , 67, 87, 111, 161 delega tion , 111, 133 dem o b ilisa tio n , 37, 91 d em ocrac ies, 30, 33, 89, 147, 154, 165 dem ocratic pow er-m onopolising tendencies, 190 dep lo y m en t, p reventive, 91 d ep riva tion , relative, 25, 30 de terrence , 7 2 -7 3 , 92, 125 d evelopm en t, 40 , 6 8 ,7 3 ,8 0 , 82, 117, 137, 150, 164, 177-78, 180, 184 theore tical, 14, 19 d im ensions, 1, 9, 16, 55, 70, 151, 181-82 d ip lom acy , 3, 5, 7, 9, 1 1, 13, 15, 17, 1 9 ,2 1 ,2 3 ,2 5 , 101-5, 119, 135 d ip lom acy m ultilateral, 102, 107 personal, 111 d ip lom ats , 101 -2 , 105, 125 d isagreem ent, perceived , 2 d isarm , 37 d isarm am ent, 77, 8 3 -8 4 , 91, 181 201 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY iiio' ■ . < Jor.nson diseases. 13. 33. 77, 158-59 , 167. 170 d isparities, 3, 47 dispu tes, 3. 8 .2 3 ,5 0 , 103, 110, 112, 123, 127, 134, 145, 162-63, 168, 187 in ternational, 127, 163 territo ria l, 4 5 -4 6 d ivergence , perceived , 4, 7 D om estic P o litics and C ivil Conflicts/W ars, 27 dom ina tion , 12 -1 3 , 1 9 ,4 0 ,4 8 , 143, 152 D ou g h erty , 11, 17, 58 D R C (D em ocratic R epublic o f C ongo), 34, 137-39 drough ts , 170-71 drugs, 67, 171-72 d ru g traffick ing , 33, 171-72 dynam ics, ba lance-o f-pow er, 96 E early w arn ing system (EW S), 90 E ast T im or, 136, 138 E bola V irus D isease (E V D ), 167 E C O M O G , 8 5 ,9 1 , 161 econom ic conflic t revolves, 47 E conom ic D eveloped C ountries (ED C), 166 E conom ic T heo ries , 10, 13 econom ic transactions, 47 econom ies, 36, 58, 70, 153-54, 167 E C O W A S , 91 E D C (E conom ic D eveloped Countries), 166 E den , 68 e ffo rts , 10, 46, 48, 55, 92, 133, 136, 140, 147, 175, 177, 186 coun ter-te rro rism , 150 in ternational, 140, 155 E gyp t, 1 18, 131-32 , 134, 151 e lem en ts , im portan t pow er, 92 em bargo , 5 1 -5 2 enem ies, 9 2 -9 4 , 96, 98 env ironm ent, 9, 17, 27, 34, 50, 62, 64, 99, 102, 107, 141, 160, 181, 188, 190 en v iro n m en ta l degradation , 19, 158, 162-63 E nv ironm en ta l Security , 159 era , 71 , 73 202 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargain,ng and Peace Building in Inicmational Relation: E stonia. SS-S9 E thn ic C onflicts, 167, 188 ethn ic violence, 159 E urope, 73, 81, 88 -8 9 , 161 E uropean pow ers, 116 even ts, 11, 1 3 ,2 1 ,2 4 -2 5 ,4 0 ,9 8 - 9 9 , 107, 135 E W S (early w arning system ), 90 ex isting stocks, destruction of, 80, 82 exp lo ita tion , 14, 4 1 ,4 8 ex p o rt, 81 -82 E xternal pow ers, 36 F factors, 3, 6, 9, 22, 3 6 -3 7 , 40, 5 5 -5 8 , 71, 83, 98, 172, 179, 184 governm ental role, 61 fa ith , particu lar, 150 fear, 4, 23 , 69, 76, 93, 96, 109, 115, 142, 153, 162, 172-73, 177, 189 fight, 18, 48 , 104, 123, 136, 146-47 finances, terrorist netw orks, 172 flood , 170-71 food, 159, 163 fo re ig n countries, 28, 40 fo re ig n policy , 15, 2 1 ,4 4 ,4 8 , 58, 60 -6 2 , 64 -6 5 , 67 F rance , 88, 118, 131, 155, 189 freedom , 143, 162, 177 frustra tion , 19-20 , 30 F unctions o f Social Conflict, 8 G gam e, 50, 5 2 ,5 9 , 102, 1 14 zero -sum , 52, 54 gam e theory , 5 0 -5 3 , 60 gases, 76, 169-70 gender em pow erm ent, 182 g lobal peace, 152, 188-89 governm ents, 2 2 ,3 0 - 3 1 ,4 1 - 4 5 ,4 9 ,5 8 ,6 0 - 6 1 ,6 7 - 6 8 ,7 6 , 106, 117, 129, 139— 40, 143-45 , 155-56 , 177 203 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ld o ^u Johnson national. 22. 173 governm ent security forces, 146 G reat Britain. 115, 154-55 grea t pow ers, 86, 92, 94, 96, 99, 118 com peting, 100 G reek city states, 101 grievances, 30, 146, 148, 155, 183, 189 group m otivations, 145 groups, 1, 9, 11, 14-16, 43, 4 6 -4 7 , 60 -63 , 67, 69, 140, 143-44, 146-47 , 152-53, 155,161 interest, 23, 3 8 -3 9 , 58 sub-national, 142 transnational-arm ed, 150 groupth ink , 63 gu ide , 11, 21, 85, 91, 136 countervailing pow er, 96 G u lf o f A qaba, 131 G u n , 20, 25 H H am as, 132-34 health , 67, 166, 178 health security, 159 heat, 169 H erm ann , 61 H err, 179 history , 9, 14 ,39 , 64, 98, 148, 186 H itler, 6 5 -6 6 H obbes, 3 8 -3 9 H offm an, 142 hostages, 142-43 hostile use, 80, 82 hostilities, 131-34, 139, 184 hum an beings, 1, 12, 16, 18, 5 0 ,9 8 hum an nature, 15-16 , 39 hum ans, 18 ,23 , 77, 166-67 hum an security, 157-58 , 160, 163 hum an security approach, 158 H ungary, 88—89 2 0 4 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace building m frucrnaiional Relation. H unting ton . 43 I IA E A (In ternational A tom ic Energy A gency), 79 IC B M s, 73, 75 id eo lo g ica l disposition , particular, 45 id eo logy , 16, 22, 4 1 ,4 5 , 48 Ife -M o d ek ek e conflict and A guleri-U m uleri conflict, 10 im ages, 58, 64, 102, 110, 176 Im o b ig h e , 141 im peria lism , 3 9 -4 1 , 48, 186 in cen tives, 35, 83, 95 -96 , 119 in d ep en d en ce , 48, 97, 108, 124, 130, 134, 136, 139, 144, 166 Ind ia , 7 9 , 115-16 , 128, 134-35, 144, 167 Ind ia and Pakistan , 76, 115, 134-35 Ind ian U n io n , 134-35 In d o n esia , 28, 116, 118, 167 in fo rm atio n , 5 5 -5 6 , 60 -61 , 67, 105, 122, 128 in ju stices, 13, 144-45 , 185, 188 in stitu tio n s , 24, 5 6 -5 7 , 60, 89 -90 , 157, 161, 180, 182 in te rdependence , 6 -7 , 21 in te rests , 2 -4 , 7 ,3 8 ,4 0 ,4 7 -4 8 , 102, 104-5, 108-9, 112, 150, 155, 161, 164, 182, 187 in te rfe ren ce , 6 -7 , 20 in te rna l conflic ts , 27, 30, 34, 36, 128, 184, 186 in te rn a tio n a l actors, 40 , 102 In te rn a tio n a l Case Studies o f C onflict and Conflict R esolution, 126 in te rn a tio n a l conflict negotiation, 111 in te rna tiona l conflicts, 10, 22, 3 7 -4 1 , 43, 45, 50, 108, 114, 121, 162, 186 in te rn a tio n a l conflicts/disputes, 128 in te rn a tio n a l conflicts range, 186 in te rn a tio n a l cooperation, 85 in te rna tiona l levels, 16, 21, 37, 39, 95, 127, 177, 186 in te rnational peace, 85, 127, 157, 162-66 , 171-73, 187, 189 m ain tenance of, 127, 138, 162 in te rnational politics, 1, 12, 14, 16, 4 0 - 4 1 ,4 5 ,4 9 ,5 1 ,5 7 , 92, 105, 114, 117, 121 In ternational R elations, 13-14, 16, 19, 41, 4 3 -4 4 , 46 -47, 5 0 -5 2 , 69, 71, 92, 95, 112, 114, 118, 186 205 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idc^'u Johnson con tex t of, 13, IS official, 102 In ternational R elations o f equilibrium , 87 In te rna tiona l R elations o f living organism s, 77 in ternational re la tions scholars, 126 in te rna tiona l security forces, 85 in te rna tiona l security problem s, 47 in ternational stab ility , 157, 165 in te rna tiona l system , 14, 38, 42, 49, 54, 65, 85, 101, 164, 167-68 , 187, 189 In te r-persona l conflict, 9 In te r-sta te conflic t, 10 in terven tions, 38, 9 0 -9 1 , 127, 176, 184 p re -co n flic t, 181 in tim idates, 140, 142-43 In tra-persona l conflic t, 9 In trasta te conflict, 10 IR A (Irish R epub lican A rm y), 155-56 Iraq , 28, 4 2 ,4 4 , 93, 104, 116-17, 167 Irish R ep u b lican A rm y (IRA ), 155-56 irreden tism , 3 9 -4 0 , 48 Islam , 4 2 -4 3 Islam ic coun tries, 44 Is lam ist m ovem ents, 4 3 -4 4 Israel, 10, 79, 115 -16 , 130-33, 145, 156 Israe li fo rces, 132-33 Israe li/P a lestin ian conflicts, 189 Italic , 19, 145, 154-56 , 168-70, 176 J Jan is, 63 Japan, 117 -18 , 170 Jenk ins, 145 -4 6 Jenk ins cast terro rism , 146 Jew ish states, 130-31 Jew s, 130-31 • K K ashm ir, 4 3 ,7 6 , 134-35 2 0 6 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in Imenianoncl Relations K ennedy . 6 1 -62 K osovo , 43, 4 6 -4 7 , 125 L lapsing , risk of, 178-80 L atv ia , 8 8 -8 9 law s, 1 1 -1 2 ,4 2 ,4 5 , 112, 154, 184 L D C s (L east D eveloped C ountries), 166 leaders , 35, 48, 5 7 -5 8 , 6 5 -6 7 , 123, 135, 151 predom inan t, 61 L east D eveloped C ountries (L D C s), 166 leg isla tion , anti-terrorism , 157 L en in , 41 , 48 L iberia , 28, 30, 35, 91, 167 L ibya, 1 44 -45 , 150-51 L ithuan ia , 8 8 -8 9 lo n g -te rm terro rist cam paigns, 155 L u sak a Peace A ccord , 137-38 M M ach iavelli, 3 8 -3 9 M an ag em en t o f in ternational conflicts, 121 m ark e ts, 1 52 -53 , 173 M arx , 1 3 -1 4 ,3 8 -3 9 M arx ists , 41 , 48 m ass destruction , 76, 80, 117, 168 m atrix , 5 1 -5 2 m easu res, countries deploy, 188 m em b ers, 42, 46, 6 2 -6 3 , 8 7 -8 9 , 91, 9 3 -9 4 ,1 1 2 , 117, 127-29 , 135, 151, 163, 1 8 5 ,1 8 7 m idd le-incom e countries, 30 m ilitary , 24, 38, 48, 74, 80, 89, 119, 149 m ilita ry capabilities, 9 2 -9 3 , 9 5 -9 6 , 125-26 m ilita ry pow er, 114, 124, 163 s ta te ’s, 114 M ilita ry S trategy and C onflict R esolution, 123 m ino rities, 44, 4 6 -4 7 , 49, 128, 159 207 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ido'AU Johnson w hite, 128-29 M IR V s (M ultip le Independently targeted V ehicles), 78, 83 m issiles. 74, 83, 125 m issions. 88, 91, 184-85 m odels, 35, 57, 71 ra tional actor, 58 -59 theoretical, 70 m onito r, 138, 185 m oon, 80 M organ , 50-51 M orgen thau , 16, 52, 157 m ovem ents, 2 5 ,4 2 , 4 4 ,4 8 , 60, 130, 132 fundam entalist, 42 terro rist, 153 M ozam bique conflict, 36 m ultilatera l agreem ents, 77, 79 M uslim s, 4 3 -4 4 N N ational C onflic t, 23 national in terests, 15-16, 87, 93, 104, 119, 157 nationalism , 48, 188 na tiona l ow nership , 178, 180 na tiona l security , 57, 95, 157, 160-62 , 167 N ational Security Council, 61 nations, 15, 2 1 ,2 6 , 37 -38 , 4 8 -4 9 , 54, 5 7 -5 8 , 94, 1 0 4 -7 ,1 2 3 , 154-55 , 157-58 160 -62 , 164, 188 nation-sta tes, 14, 49, 65, 95, 137, 158, 188 N A T O (N orth A tlantic T reaty O rganisation), 85, 88-89 , 118, 161 N A T O m em bers, 88 -89 nego tia tions, 3 4 -3 6 , 50, 53, 5 5 -5 7 , 79, 102, 104-13, 121, 127, 133, 135-36, 156 1 6 2 ,1 7 8 , 186-87 co llaborative, 109 d irect, 107, 110 peacefu l, 108, 111 positional, 109 neu tral parties, 93 N ew D elh i, 134-35 N igeria , 10, 21, 43, 116, 118, 151-52 208 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy. Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relations N IS E R D G S O FFIC E, 14-15, 18-20, 28 -29 , 4 0 -4 1 , 72-73 , 75 -76 . 105-7 , 109- 12, 1 4 0 ,1 4 2 -4 5 ,1 5 0 -5 2 , 154-58, 168-70, 174-81, 183-90 non -M uslim s, 43 N o n -p ro life ra tio n Treaty (NPT), 7 9 -8 0 non -sta te actors, 76, 140-41, 164 N on -sta te T errorists, 144 N o rth e rn Ireland , 156 n u c lea r m ateria l, 81, 148 n u c lea r pow ers, 76 nu c lea r w eapons, 7 2 -7 3 , 76-77 , 7 9 -8 2 , 126, 149, 168-69 O o b jec tiv es , 9, 141, 143, 164, 178, 180 o p e ra tio n a l codes, 65 o p p o n en ts , 2, 6, 35, 51, 55, 65-66 , 75, 99, 103-4, 141, 150 o rg an isa tio n , 3, 11, 43, 53, 60-61 , 66, 85, 89 -91 , 112, 130-31, 142, 184, 187 in te rn a tio n a l, 21, 89 -90 , 137, 143, 161-62, 165 reg io n a l, 87, 89 reg io n a l intergovernm ental, 87, 107 reg io n a l security , 88 O rg an isa tio n fo r Security and C ooperation in Europe (O SC E), 85, 89, 161 P P ak istan C onflict, 134 P a lestin e , 10, 43, 130 P alestine L iberation O rganisation (PLO ), 132 P ane l on U nited N ations Peace O perations, 184 P artia l T e s t B an Treaty, 80 p a rtic ip a tio n e ffec tiv e , 29 socia l, 175 parties, 2 -4 , 6 -9 , 37 -38 , 52, 54 -56 , 7 0 -7 1 , 81, 83, 9 1 -9 2 , 108-12 , 119, 122-23, 1 2 5 ,1 2 7 ,1 3 6 partition , recom m ended, 130 pay-off, 5 1 -5 2 , 112 peace , 34, 36, 39, 86, 89, 91, 9 4 -9 5 , 98, 102, 136, 138-39 , 155-56, 163, 174, 184 durab le , 180-81 , 190 209 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Idow u Johnsoi; P eace and S ecurity C ouncil (PSC). 90 peacebu ild ing , 9 l ’ 165, 174-81, 183-84, 190 P eace B uild ing , 175, 177, 179, 181, 183, 185, 187, 189 peaceb u ild in g , p ie-conflic t, 181 peaceb u ild in g approaches, generalised international, 183 p eaceb u ild in g efforts, 176-78 p eaceb u ild in g strategies, 178, 180 p eacefu l settlem ent, international norm of, 127, 163 p eace fund (P F), 90 peacek eep in g , 91, 165, 174, 178-79, 183-84 p eacek eep in g m issions, 184-85 p eace stud ies, 174 percep tio n s , 3 -4 , 6 -7 , 39, 52, 55, 58, 62, 6 7 -68 , 110, 145, 158, 176 persp ec tiv es, 8, 12, 2 2 -2 3 , 38, 53, 94, 164 P faltzg raff, 11, 17, 58 p h y sio logy , 18, 65, 67 p o lic ie s , 36, 65, 69, 121, 123, 128 po licy m ak ers, 52, 9 8 -9 9 po litica l parties, 43, 156 P o litica l S ecurity , 160 po litics , 44, 104, 114, 120, 140 b a lanc ing -o f-pow er, 97 p o p u la tio n , 28, 33, 116, 143, 161, 166, 170 p o st-C o ld W ar W orld , 126, 128 p o st-co n flic t, 177, 180-1, 183 p o st-co n flic t interventions, 177 p o st-co n flic t peacebuild ing , 181 p o s t-co n flic t so c ie ty ’s ability, 181 p o st-co n flic t zone, 181 poverty , 13, 19, 33, 47, 147-48, 158, 162, 188 pow er, 12, 14 -16 , 27, 29, 45, 55, 57, 65 -66 , 87 -88 , 9 2 -9 3 ,9 5 -9 9 , 101, 114-16 , 1 1 9 -2 1 ,1 2 3 a lly ’s, 96 app lied , 119 balance of, 12, 87, 92, 94 -95 , 99, 157 c o u n try ’s, 117, 119 d istribu tion of, 96, 99 econom ic, 38, 117 elevating , 16 fighting, 37 210 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Recce Building in International Retailor, financial, 41 governm ents centralise, 60 hegem onic, 119 indiv idual, 107 in term ediate , 116 m em b er’s, 92 national, 96, 114, 117 observed , 98 o rd inate , 95 p o litica l, 150 po ten tia lly -dangerous, 97 raw , 114 reg iona l, 133 s ta te ’s, 93 sub-reg iona l, 118 super, 118 techn ical, 48 ve to , 118, 189 p o w e r capabilities, 115, 123-24 sta tes deploy, 121 p o w er differentials, 22 p o w er dom inance, 117 p o w er equation , 55 p o w er parity , 55 p o w er policy , 86 p o w er po litics, 14, 118, 123 P ow er Politics and C old W ar International Relations, 118 p o w er re la tionships, 52, 118 p o w er resources, 105 p o w er rivalry , super, 70 p o w er ro le , 116 pow er-sharing agreem ents, 35 p o w er status, 118 p o w er strategies, 123 p o w er theory, 95 p o w er transition, 114-15 pre-conflic t peace build ing interventions, 181 preponderance , 73, 9 7 -9 8 p residen ts, 64, 67, 111, 120, 129, 147 211 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY JcIoku Johnson p ressu res. 21, 6 2 -6 3 , 76 prestige , national, 3 9 -4 0 , 48 p ro b lem , 1, 3, 12 ,49 , 108-9 , 1 15, 130, 135, 147, 159 p ro cess , 6, 1 1 -1 2 ,3 4 -3 5 ,4 0 , 53. 5 6 ,6 1 -6 2 ,6 4 , 67, 69, 102, 104, 108-9 , 174-75, 180 a c tio n -reac tio n , 70-71 decision -m ak ing , 4, 15, 58, 60, 68 p ro d u c tio n , 13, 80, 82 p ro g ram m es, 7 3 -7 4 , 179, 181 p ro le ta ria t, 14 p ro p e rtie s , 140, 154, 157, 188 p ro tec tio n , 81, 85, 89, 157, 160-61 p ro x y w ars, 45 , 72-73 p sy ch o lo g ica l profiles, 64 -65 R rad ia tio n , 169 R ad io lo g ica l T errorism , 148 ra tio n a l choices, 50, 52, 93, 96, 187 R eag an , R onald , 66 -68 rea lism , 1 5 -1 6 , 39, 4 3 ,9 2 rea lists , 1 6 ,3 9 , 9 3 ,9 5 , 9 7 -9 8 , 157 reb e llio n , 22 , 25, 32 reb e ls , 25, 34, 45^*6 R ed u c in g A sym m etry , 3 5 -3 6 R eg io n a l Security , 161 re lap sin g , 178-80 re la tio n s , 1 1 -13 , 26, 54, 57, 65, 70, 101, 115-16 , 164, 183 re lig io n s , 24, 3 8 ,4 1 -4 4 , 166, 188 re lig io u s ex trem ism , 4 0 -4 1 , 186 re sea rch , 11, 117, 175 resou rces, 2, 6, 8, 13, 1 7 ,3 8 ,4 1 ,5 7 ,6 1 ,7 6 , 115, 123, 146, 154, 190 n a tu ra l, 32, 143 resp onsib ility , 138 re su lt, 8, 1 3 -14 , 20, 2 3 -2 5 , 35, 3 8 -3 9 , 41 , 48, 59, 63, 75, 77, 97, 146, 166 revo lu tions, 2 4 -2 5 , 47, 66 R ichardson , 70-71 risk , 33, 54, 59, 63, 65, 78, 94, 104, 162, 171 rival parties, 70 2 1 2 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building m International Relations R om an ia , 88 -89 R ourke , 102-4 ru les, 1 8 ,4 2 ,5 1 ,9 4 ,9 7 , 99, 102-3, 112, 118 R upersinghe , 34 -35 R ussia , 7 8 -7 9 , 116, 155, 164, 189 R w an d a , 28, 137, 139, 167 S safe ty , 157-58 , 161-62 , 164 san c tio n s , 87, 91, 126, 129 econom ic , 117, 119, 129, 163 S ch e llin g , 6, 5 3 -5 6 sch o la rs , 1, 10, 1 3 ,2 3 ,2 5 ,3 9 ,6 1 ,9 8 , 101, 114, 121, 153, 157, 1 7 5 -7 6 , 181 sec t, 1 5 1 -52 sec u la r practices, 42 secu rity , 33, 35, 37, 39, 85, 9 1 -9 4 , 127, 152, 154, 157-58, 162-66 , 168, 171-73 , 1 8 5 ,1 8 7 -8 9 com m unity , 159 econom ic , 41, 158 g lo b a l, 94, 158, 184 in d iv id u a l s ta te’s, 94 in ternational, 160-62 , 164 / se c u rity concept, 160, 164 S e c u rity Council, 124, 128, 131, 134-35 , 163, 172, 184, 189 se c u rity d ilem m a, 37, 8 5 -8 6 se c u rity interests, 87 na tio n a l, 96 sec u rity o f citizens, 157-58 , 165 sec u rity threats, traditional, 158 se lf-h e lp , 39, 85 S ep a ra tis t Conflict, 165 set, 4, 11, 35, 63, 127, 163, 165, 170, 178-79 settlem en t, 34, 42, 64, 123, 127 S in g le groups, 61 S in n F ein , 156 situ a tio n s, 3 ,2 0 - 2 1 ,5 6 , 6 2 ,6 5 -6 6 , 6 8 ,7 5 , 115, 122-23, 138, 145, 174, 181, 184- 85, 189-90 ex isting , 2 5 -2 6 213 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Jdcnvu Johnson Six-D ay W ar, 131-32 Slovakia, 8 8 -8 9 Slovenia, 8 8 -8 9 Social C onflic t, 6, 8 social system , 3, 23, 38 society, 9, 1 3 -1 4 , 19-20 , 22, 2 4 -2 7 , 39, 41, 43, 57, 61, 147-48 , 151, 176, 179, 185-86 civil, 37, 175, 177, 181-82, 190 solution, 1 0 7 -8 , 113, 121-22 , 127, 135, 137, 162 Som alia, 49 , 151-52 South A frica, 12 8 -3 0 South A frican participation, 129 sovereign states, 12, 33, 39, 85, 161, 164 sovereignty , 45 , 85, 130, 132 S o v ie t-b lo c countries Poland, 89 Soviet leaders, 74 Soviet p o w er in Europe, 88 Soviet U nion , 45, 62, 70 -75 , 77, 89, 11.8, 153 species, 17 -18 spill, 46, 49 Stalin, 66, 6 8 -6 9 S ta te-d irec ted T errorism , 145 state failure, 33, 167 statehood, 2 3 -2 4 S tate-insp ired /sponsored Terrorism , 150 state security , 157-58 , 165 states em phasise, 114-15 State sponsors o f terro rist groups, 144 state terrorism , 166 stationing, 8 0 -8 2 stockpiling, 80, 82 strain, 21, 67, 167 Strategic A rm s L im itation Talks (SA LT), 78, 83 strategies, 6, 35, 37, 5 0 -5 1 , 102, 121, 123-26, 154, 156, 172, 181 terrorist, 172 structuralist conflic t theory, 13 study, 11, 14, 50, 5 7 -5 8 , 63, 6 6 -6 7 , 161 substance, 1, 3, 38, 87 successors, 36 Sudan, 28, 43 , 144, 150-51 2 1 4 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy, Conflicts, Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relationj S u e z C a n a l . 131 superpow er agreem ents, 77 superpow er level, 118 superpow er rivalry , 69 superpow ers, 54, 71, 78, 126, 189 Supra-personal conflict, 9 -1 0 survival, 14, 17, 85, 96, 163 m utual, 161-62 sustainable peace, 174-76, 178-80 Syria, 131, 144-45 System ic factors, 19 T table, 4, 8 ,1 0 3 ,1 1 0 ,1 3 3 -3 4 ,1 8 3 negotiating, 36, 110-11 tactics, 121, 148 Taiw an, 124-25 technology, 46, 81, 117, 163 tensions, 4, 7, 23, 70 -7 1 , 122, 189 terrain, global, 28 territories, 4 5 -4 7 , 49, 81, 83 ,111 , 115, 124, 127, 132, 137, 145-46, 161, 168, 171 terror, 16, 140, 143, 172 terror attacks, 149, 151 terrorism , 33, 140-50 , 152-56, 162, 172-73, 186, 188 countering, 156 dom estic, 142-43 effectiveness of, 152, 173 international, 142 prim ary effect of, 152, 173 reasons, 146 sponsored, 150 state-sponsored, 142 transnational, 150 terrorism studies, 153 terrorism supersede, 158 terrorist activities, 147 directed, 145 215 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ldo'\i* Johnson lerrorist activities scare, 154 terrorist acts. 153. 188 backed, 144 terro rist attacks, 47, 89, 146, 148, 154, 173, 188 te rro rist groups, 144-46. 153-54 left-w ing, 146 passed law s banning, 155 te rro rist netw orks, 43 te rro rist operations, 150 international, 142 te rro rist organisations, 135, 154-55 foreign, 188 state-directed , 144 terrorists, 145-46, 148-49, 151, 153-54, 172-73 T erro ris t W eapons and Tactics, 148 theory , 10 -13 , 15-16, 18-21, 52-54 , 60, 85, 95, 124, 126, 147 behavioural, 10, 17-18 linkage, 10, 20-21 realist, 10, 14-15 system s, 18-19 th ird party , 96, 108, 113, 123 th ird party m ediators, 35 Thom as S chelling’s B argaining Theory, 52 threats, 2 -4 , 49, 53 -54 , 56, 92 -94 , 119-21, 124-26, 138, 140, 142, 155, 157-58, 161-68 , 171-72, 187-89 com m on, 92-93 international, 152 perceived, 3, 49, 62, 93, 161 transnational, 171 Threats to International Peace and Security, 157 traces, 8, 19, 21 trade, 3 2 ,4 6 , 101-2, 117, 131, 163 traditions, 12, 19, 130, 157-58 transform , 178, 181 transform conflict, 174 transition , 184-85 treaties, 78 -79 , 118-19, 140, 161 troops, 88, 90, 136-37 truce, 135 trust, m utual, 164 2 1 6 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Diplomacy Conflicts. Bargaining and Peace Building in International Relation* T ypo lo g y o f T errorist G roups, 144 U U ganda, 28, 137, 139 U N , 85, 87, 90, 124 ,128 , 130-31 , 135, 138, 162-63 , 165, 175, 179, 189-90 U N charter, 127, 162-63, 165 U N C IP (U N C om m ission on India and Pakistan), 135 U N G eneral A ssem bly, 129-30, 132 U nited N ations, 1 17-18, 124, 127, 136-37 , 152, 155, 159, 161-62, 177, 179, 183-84 , 189 U nited States, 42, 45, 65, 69, 7 1 -7 5 , 7 7 -7 9 , 88 -89 , 124, 129, 144, 154, 164 U N M IS E T (U nited N ations M ission o f Support in East Tim or), 136 U N S ecurity Council, 124, 137-38 , 185 u tilities , 60, 182 V values, 2, 6, 22 -23 , 42, 46, 57, 133, 159-61 , 164 veh icle , conflict-resolution, 189 ve to es , 124 v ic tim s, 142, 146, 149, 152, 172-73 v ic to ry , 8, 98 v io lence , 10, 20, 23 -24 , 44, 47, 54, 140—42, 146, 153-55, 158, 160, 162, 172, 176 -80 , 187 d irect, 177-78 v io len t conflicts, 43, 166, 168, 174, 176-77 , 179, 181 m anag ing , 175 V o ice o f A m erica (V O A ), 106 W w ar, 27 , 30, 3 4 -3 8 , 4 5 -4 6 , 7 1 -7 2 , 9 8 -9 9 , 101-2 , 104, 115, 120-22, 124-27, 1 3 0 -3 2 , 138-39 , 174, 176 W ar/C onflic t Term ination, 34 w arfare , 50, 7 6 -7 7 ,9 9 , 158, 168 w arheads, 75, 78 w arring parties, 139, 185 w ealth , 46—48 217 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ldowu Johnson w e a p o n s , 3 6 , 5 8 , 7 5 - 7 8 , 8 3 - 8 4 , 9 8 , 1 2 6 , 1 4 4 , 1 4 8 , 1 8 2 b i o l o g i c a l , 7 6 - 7 7 , 1 6 8 , 1 7 0 chem ical, 7 6 - 7 7 , 7 9 , 1 6 9 f i s s i o n , 1 6 9 W est B ank, 1 3 1 , 1 3 3 W este rn hem ispheric countries, 8 2 W ilson , 9 4 w ithho ld , 117 w orld po litics , 49, 58, 107, 165 w orld pow ers, 157 W o rld W ar II, 1 4 ,2 2 ,2 8 ,4 5 , 6 7 ,7 2 , 86, 89, 118, 139, 170 Y Y obe S tate, 151-52 Y usuf, M oham m ed, 151 Z Z aire, 137, 139 Z im babw e, 137 218 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY