UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN THIS THESIS SUBMITTED BY X .w:libXO WAS ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE FACULTY OF EDUCATION OF THIS UNIVERSITY THE EFFECTIVE DATE OF THE AWARD IS f UNIVERSITY O IBADAN LIBRARY MANPOWERO FS YOSRTGEAMNS ! SAANTA IL OYNSAIIS, /AMSA NAA GECMOERNRTELATE EFFECTIVENESS IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES IN NIGERIA. b y OYEBAMIJI ADEBAYO ABIMBOLA B.Sc.(HON.) ECONOMICS, (IBADAN) M.ED. INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS/EDUCATION (IBADAN) A Thesis in the Department of Adult Education Submitted to the Faculty of Education in Partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (in Industrial Education) of the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN IBADAN, NIGERIA. MAY, 1995. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 1 1 ABSTRACT This study examined manpower systems analysis as a correlate of Organisational/Management effectiveness in randomly selected industries in Nigeria with a view to finding out the relationship between the ability to survive of a business concern and the efficiency with which it utilises its human resources. The descriptive survey research design was employed for this research which covered service, manufacturing, transport, banking and petro-chemical industries. A total of 1,000 workers were randomly selected as subjects for this study. A questionnaire designed using a four-point Likert Scale and which comprised of the Industrial Staffers Job / commitment Questionnaire (I.S.C.Q.), Job Placement Questionnaire (J.P.Q.), structured interview on employment, training, job performance/ advancement, recruitment, and promotion, were used as the instrument for this study. Seven null hypotheses were postulated and tasted. The data collected were analysed using a set of statistical tools like the chi-square (X ), Pearson Product Moment Correlation (r) at 0.05 level of UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ill confidence , t-test statistic, and analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The study established the following: (1) There was a significant correlation between manpower systems analysis and workers' morale in industry. (2 ) There was a significant correlation between manpower systems analysis and rate of absenteeism in industry. (3) There was a significant relationship between career development and workers' attitudes to their organisations. (4) There was a significant correlation between effective job placement and workers' productivity. (5) Manpower systems analysis significantly affects the market rate of return on capital assets. • ( 6) There was a significant difference between the earnings per share resulting from fulfillment of workers' aspiration with respect to promotions and their non-fulfillment on entering the organisation. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY i v (7) There was a significant correlation between matching workers' systems analysis as a "sine qua non" for organisational/management effectiveness and therefore recommended that: (1) Employers of labour should engage in serious manpower system analysis so as to get and put the right number and kinds of people at the right places at the right time. (2) Employers should provide those working conditions that employees believe are necessary in order to secure and maintain their commitment to the organisation. (3) Workers should be assigned to jobs for which their aptitudes and abilities are well suited so as to reduce rate of absenteeism and increase their productivity in industry. (4) Organisations should develop interest in drawing up manpower systems analysis as an effective means of improving employees' job attitudes, behaviours and performance. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY V Other recommendations and suggestions based on the findings of this study were also included. * » UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY VI DEDICATION This work is dedicated to those who taught me most - Late (Prof.) 0. Aboyade, Prof. O. Soyod Dr. A. Iwayemi, Dr. R. Olopoenia, Prof. Ibi Ajay Prof. Bade Onimode and Prof. A.A. Aderinto. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Most importantly, I acknowledge the divine power of the Almighty God who in His infinite mercy and grace has helped in seeing me through the successful completion of this work and I can say with all sense of gratitude as St. Paul says that: By His grace, I am what I am; and His grace which was bestowed upon me was not in vain, but I laboured more abundantly yet not I, but the grace of God which was with me. (The Holy Bible, 1 Corinthians 15;10) I am indeed indebted to all the authors and publishers whose works I have had to consult for many relevant quotations and references. My sincere gratitude goes to my Supervisor Dr. M.A.L. Omole for his great effort, cooperation, words of encouragement and for his useful corrections and amendments made to the draft manuscript from which the final draft is produced. I shall for ever be grateful to Dr. A. Ajayi, who in spite of his busy schedules took much time to read through the scripts and offered useful suggestions and guided me from the beginning to the end. I shall also at this juncture, acknowledge the immense contributions of UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY V l l l Dr. 'Depo Akintayo with particular reference to the analysis of the data using appropriate set of statistical tools. May God continue to bless the work of their hands. Amen. I am also grateful to the Personnel Officers of the various companies which I chose as my subjects of study, and all the workers who filled the questionnaire I used in getting most of the information for this research work promptly and honestly too. I will like to extend my gratitude tc my Read of Department, Professor Michael Omolewa, and all the Lecturers in the Department of Adult Education., University of Ibadan for their teaching, constant words of advice and encouragement which in no small way had helped me in realising my dreams. I really enjoyed the company of them all. Mr. A. Badaki, the former Human Resourc»es Manager of the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibadan will forever be remembered for making me have free access to his personal library and that of the Institute where I was able to collect a greater percentage of the literature on the subject matter of the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY IX research work. He is indeed a man full of God's grace and beauty. I will like to extend my gratitude to my mother Mrs. Adunola Shittu Abimbola, for her continuous love, advice and prayers. To my better-half Mrs. Esther Olapeju Abimbola and my loving children, Miss. Iyabo, Oluwafemi, Adewale, Oluwaseun and Temitope, I say a big thank you for your understanding, prayer support and great endurance. A friend and colleague, Mrs. C.A. Makinde had been so wonderfully used to ease my problem of having to move from one place to the other in carrying out the research work. She was readily available to carry me and all my consignments in her car to wherever I wished to go. She was too kind to be described. I also wish to express my sincere gratitude to Mr. and Mrs. Femi Akinyo-Ojo who helped in the photocopying of the final draft. Ail along, the family has demonstrated its steadfast love to me in various circumstances and more particularly during this course. I pray that God shall richly bless them. I am grateful to all my friends and well-wishers all those who have helped me in one way or the other: they UNIVERSITY OF IBAD N LIBRARY X include Dr. and Mrs. Bayo Akinola, Dr. and Mrs. J.O. Ojesina, Pa J.A. Fadele, Mr. J.K. Mojoyinola, Dr. Austin Isamah, Mr. and Mrs. S.O. Babatunde, Mr. and Mrs. Begun Ogunmodede, Mr. O.O. Oni, Mr. M.B. Ismaila, Mr. R . A . Adegoke, Mr. S. Orisadeyi, Rev. A. Adeosun, Mr. and Mrs. S.O. Oladeji, Mr. and Mrs. A.A. Ayangbile, Mr. and Mrs. J.A. Adewoyin, Mr. and Mrs. I.D. Adeniyi, Mr. and Mrs. P.O. Adeniyi, Mr. and Mrs. J.B. Telia, Rev. and Mrs. E.O., Akanbi and numerous others that space does not allow me to mention. Lastly, but by no means the least, I am grateful to God for the life of my friend, Mr. Augustine Ojemeke who has helped in typing the final draft of this work. It is on record that throughout the course he was my typist, and the diligence with which he does his work is reflected in all the work he has done for me. Thank you so much. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY XI CERTIFICATION I certify that this work was carried out b OYEBAMIJI ADEBAYO ABIMBOLA in the Department of Adul Education, University of Ibadan, under my Supervision. SUPERVISOR Dr. M.A.L. Omole, B.Ed., Dip. in Adult Education, M .Phi 1.,Ph.D . MAY, 1995. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Xli TABLE OF CONTENTS PAG! ABSTRACT ................................. ii INDICATION ................................ vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................... vii CERTIFICATION ............................. xi CABLE OF CONTENTS ........................ xii LIST OF TABLES ............................ xvi LIST OF FIGURES ........................... xix CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION................. 1 Background of the Study ............ 1 The Problems.......................... 6 Purpose of the Study ............... 11 Significance of Study .............. 12 The Scope of the Study.............. 13 Definition of Terms ................ 14 Limitations of the Study ........... 16 CHAPTER TWO: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 17 Manpower Models ..................... 18 Models of Management/Organisational Effectiveness 30 UNIV RSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Xlll Conceptual Models on Manpower Systems Analysis and Organisational/Management Effectiveness ....................... 41 CHAPTER THREE: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE.......... 44 Employer's ability to retain his manpower ............................. 47 Manpower Systems Analysis and Recruitment potential ........ 63 Measurement of Organisational/ Management Effectiveness ........... 75 Literature Appraisal ................ 87 Research Hypotheses ................. 88 CHAPTER FOUR: RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY Design ............................... SO Population and Sample ............. 91 Research Instruments ..................... 103 Validation of the instrument ....... 105 Reliability of the instrument ........... 105 Administration of the questionnaires 106 Data Analysis ............................. 107 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY xiv CHAPTER FIVE: FINDINGS AND DISCUSSIONS Hypothesis I ....................... 108 Hypothesis II ....................... 112 Hypothesis III ...................... 116 Hypothesis IV ...................... 121 Hypothesis V ...................... 124 Hypothesis VI ....................... 127 Hypothesis VII ...................... 132 CHAPTER SIX: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 135 A: Knowledge of manpower systems analysis as a management tool 136 B: The determinants of organisational/ management effectiveness ......... 139 C: Career Pianning/Development and Manpowwer planning ................ 142 D: Effective job placements and workers' productivity ............ 147 E: Securing and maintaining workers' commitment to the organisation ... 150 F: Manpower systems analysis and organisational circumstances .... 154 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY XV G: Training needs of the worker .... 157 H: Correlate between manpower systems analysis and organisational/ management effectiveness ......... 160 CHAPTER SEVEN: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Summary ................................ 164 Conclusion .............................. 168 Suggested topics for further Studies 171 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................ 173 APPENDICES .............................. 193 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY XVI LIST OF.TABLES PAGE Table 1 Strikes Workers involved and mandays lost in Nigeria (1975-1994) ....... 9 Table 3.1 Table for assessing future recruitment potential.......................... 7 4 Table 4.1 Distribution of industries in Lagos according to number of companies and size of workers employed........... 93 Table 4.2 Distribution of workers interviewed (respondents) according to industries 94 Table 4.3 Distribution of workers interviewed (respondents) in service industries according to companies and departments 95 Table 4.4 Distribution of workers interviewed (respondents) in manufacturing industry according to companies and departments ....................... 96 Table 4.5 Distribution of workers interviewed (respondents) in transport industry according to companies nd departments 98 Table 4.6 Distribution of workers interviewed (respondents) in banking industry 100 Table 4.7 Distribution of workers interviewed (respondents) in Petro-chemical industry according to companies and departments ...................... 102 Table 5.1 Number of correctly filled questionnaires ...................... 108 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY XVII Table 5.2 Correlation between effective manpower systems analysis and workers' morale in industry. 109 Table 5.3 ANOVA Summary table on the relationship between manpower systems analysis and workers' morale ............................ 110 Table 5.4 Correlation between manpower systems analysis and rate of absenteeism in industry .......... 113 Table 5.5 Relationship between career development and workers attitudes to their organisations (Chi-Square table) ................ 117 Table 5.6 Correlation between career "development and workers' attitudes to their organisation ............. 113 Table 5.7 Correlation between job placement and workers' productivity......... 121 Table 5.8 Correlation between manpower systems analysis and market rate of return on ca[ital assets.................. 125 Table 5.9 Significant difference between the earnings per share resulting from fulfillment of workers' aspiration with respect to promotions and their non-fulfillment on entering the organisation ...................... 128 Table 5.10 Chi-Square table showing the significant difference between earnings per share resulting from fulfillment of workers' aspiration with respect to promotions and their non-fulfillment on entering the organisation.................... 129 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY X V X 1 1 =.z.e 5.11 Level of significance between matching workers' aptitudes and ijonbt erceosmtm ittmo entth ei.r. ..jo.b.s. ..a.nd. .workers 132 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY X I X LIST OF FIGURES PAGE Figure 2.1 An Example of fluid grading 25 Figure 2.2 Assessment of fitness for the future mode 34 Figure 2.3 Multiple domains, constituents and effectiveness model (with life cycle overlay) 36 Figure 2.4 Conceptual model: On manpower systems analysis and organisational/management effectiveness.................. 42 Figure 3.1 Factors to be considered in manpower planning ............ 43 Figure 3.2 Self perpetuating nature of turn's problems." Determinants of the supply of labour to the farms"........................... 5 3 Figure 3.3 Determining how good the career opportunities are for a particular job.................. 68 UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION Background of the Study To the common man, manpower can be said to be the number of workmen needed, for a cer^in type of work, as in industry, the army, the police and so on. The term may also mean the workpower supplied by men rather than machines. It can also mean a measure of the power of one man at work which is usually in 1/10 horsepower. Manpower in its economic context refers to "managerial, scientific engineering, technical craftsman and skills which are employed in designing and developing organisations and managing productive and service enterprises and economic institutions" (Okoye, 1979). Manpower development is concerned with the two fold objectives of building skills and providing productive employment for utilised and underutilised manpower. Organisations are composed of people, and these people represent one of the organisations' most valuable assets. However, because organisations do not own people as other assets, it is^seldomly given proper attention. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 2 To ensure that people are available to provide the continued smooth development of an organisation, it engages in manpower systems analysis, the purpose of which is to assess where the organisation is, where it is going, and what implication these assessments have on future supplies of and demands for manpower. Attempts must then be made to make supplies of and demands for manpower compatible with the achievement of the organisation's future needs (David and Stephen, 1988) . The objective of manpower systems analysis is to bring together our forecast of future demand for and supply of manpower. The result of this effort is to pinpoint shortages both in number and in kinds; to highlight areas where overstaffing may exist (now or in the future), and to keep abreast of the opportunities that exist in the labour market to hire good people; either to satisfy current needs or to stockpile for the future. In view of the role of efficient manpower systems analysis in limiting variability, instability and unpredictability of organisational environments including their people, there is a need for organisations to avail themselves of the benefits, which manpower systems analysis UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 3 could bring to organisations by way of helping them accomplish much larger and more difficult objectives than would otherwise be the case. We live in a competitive world economy, and the efficiency with which we utilise our resources is the key to our survival. There had been an increasing interest in other countries of the world particularly in the advanced countries in the utilisation of manpower systems analysis as a management tool in solving some of their manpower problems, but in Nigeria because of technological innovations and lack of use of manpower systems analysis, there has been systematic laying off of workers. These problems would not have been so great as they are today, if the technique of manpower systems analysis had been applied by various industries. One of the most widely used remedies for dealing with the problem of redundancies is laying off workers. It is now extremely difficult as pointed out by Kreldt (1953) to reduce the size of an organisation quickly and cheaply. Time can be bought by generous redundancy payments but the impacts of power trade unions and legislation have been to slow down the process by which, an. organisation^ .can jreduce its number of workers. Those responsible for managing manpower must bsgixa UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 4 to look further ahead in attempting to foresee manpower problems through the technique of manpower systems analysis. By focusing on productivity, organisations are realising that it is imperative to hire employees who can do the job and be successful at it. It behoves the organisation to employ the right calibre of workers and be able to maintain their services. The penalties associated with failure to match manpower and organisation policies are heavy in human terms. The cost of employing people have been rising more rapidly than other organisation costs, and whereas overmanning ten years ago might have been tolerable, it is no longer the case. Organisations neither generate the profits to cover nor have the reserves to absorb the increases in manpower costs temporarily, nor can they raise sales volume to offset the rise in manpower costs when rates of inflation are high. The direct result of overmanning is, at the minimum, a stop on recruitment leaving workers unemployed; at worst, redundancy among employees. Organisations have become more complex, requiring a wider range of specialist skills in their employees. A wider range of skills means more types of employees to be recruited, and UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 5 the greater the degree of difficulty in replacing such employees when they leave. When new skills are needed but take considerable length of time to acquire, organisations often respond by creating new career streams. In doing so, the size of ,,J;h©5 manpower management problem is considerably increased. As a result of the rapidly changing technology of the last thirty years or so, organisations find that they have skills in abundance which are no longer necessary and yet, at the same time, are short of the much needed new skills and experience. The assessment of the organisation's current human resource situation is based on manpower inventory and a thorough manpower systems analysis. It should identify current position of the organisation by taking a close look at the jobs currently being done and the people doing these jobs. Because such jobs should be the result of previous manpower systems analysis, they should provide a fairly accurate reflection of what manpower the organisation needs to achieve and what objective it is currently seeking. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 6 1.2 The Problems Inmost business organisations in Nigeria, there seems to be no thorough comprehension of manpower systems analysis skills among the personnel managers. A skill can only be put into use if it is understood. This makes the estimation of organisation’s manpower need to be reduced to mere guess work. There is no clear-cut analysis of any kind, to the extent that workers are recruited and assigned to jobs without much consideration for age, education, training and interest. One of the results is low workers' productivity (Ezeala, 1991). Specifically, manpower systems analysis is concerned with the translation of the organisation’s objectives and plans into the number of workers needed to meet those objectives. It is also a process which ensures that an organisation has the right number and kind of people at the right time, in right positions capable of effectively and efficiently completing those tasks that will help the organisation achieve its overall objectives. This cannot be achieved except employers of labour find ways and means of embarking on the technique of manpower systems analysis in finding out, and employing, the right types of people to vacant positions in the right time. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 7 High rate of wastages among workers reduces the level of productivity and therefore the profit margin of organisations. Regardless of the current pressures caused by recession, there is a developing and ongoing need to manage manpower better. It is no longer possible to achieve this objective by reacting to events, recruiting to replace high wastage, making employees redundant when there is a need to reduce costs. Among reasons stated as causes of high turn-over rate among workers are availability of alternative jobs, career opportunities, comparative pay and earnings and induction crises (Giwa, 1994). Some evidences of management ineffectiveness are not far­ fetched. Koontz 1980; Lawson, 1990; and Neburagho 1991, are of the opinion that low labour productivity, high labour turnover, poor attitudes of employees to their jobs/cotnpanies, low return on investment, assets and equity, and low earnings per share are evidences of management ineffectiveness. Hence in Nigeria, the incidence of low productivity of workers; high labour turnover, high rate of absenteeism among other things are signs of management/organisational ineffectiveness. Another factor of manpower problem in Nigeria relates to the problem facing recruitment, for example the issue of UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 8 "Federal character or Quota system, "God fatherism", and the difficulty of arriving at a "minimum national consensus" of fairness and competence in a diverse country like Nigeria to the extent that people who have the required skills are not employed (Olagunju, 1978). It is widely accepted particularly by Southerners in Nigeria that the issue of federal character is a disaster in Nigeria. Its application has remained Nigeria's main problem in that it sacrifices excellence and merit for mediocrity in the employment market. The consequences are low productivity, high labour turnover and poor attitudes of employees to their jobs. A characteristic like technical obsolescence can, if it begins to permeate the entire organisation, adversely affects the organisation's performance. It is imperative to hire employers who can do the job and be successful at it and organisations need not suffer through poor economic times before they realise that many of their hiring practices and personnel philosophies were out of synchronisation. A large number of companies rest on the belief that individuals will stay with them through thick and thin.. Many of the organisations do not realise or pretend not to realise that training the new employees and updating training for UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 9 current employees are necessary to create a pool of satisfied and committed workers. TABLE 1.1 STRIKES. WORKERS INVOLVED AND MAN-DAYS LOST IN NIGERIA (1975-1992) T Year Strikes Workers involved Man-day lost 1975 129 62,565 144,881 1976 346 107,489 435.493 1977 213 76.297 213,186 1978 78 105,525 87,137 1979 755 204,742 2,038,855 1980 265 221,088 3,333,699 1981 171 2,350,998 2,244,984 1982 253 2,874,721 9,652,400 1983 131 629,177 404,822 1984 49 42,046 301,809 1985 40 71,932 193,322 1986 53 193,322 461,345 1987 38 57,097 142,506 1988 124 55,620 230,613 1989 80 230,613 579,968 1990 102 254,540 1991 1,339,104117 460,471 2,257,382 1992 124 238,324 966,511 SOURCE: Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for several years. Table 1.1 reveals that the frequencies of industrial disputes in the country have always been on the increase particularly since 1990. In 1990, the number of industrial strikes recorded was 102, while in 1991 and 1992, numbers of strikes recorded were 117 and 124 respectively. Despite the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 10 economic recession in the country since 1990, strikes recorded have been on the increase indicating that workers are not satisfied with their economic conditions. A general increase in workers' level of education and standard of living now compel them to find jobs that pay rather than those that are interesting. There are very few organisations that are not affected in some respect by the recessions or booms that take place in word economy. Any forecast of the future no matter how well it interprets business change, productivity levels or social constraints, will be subject to the chance and uncertainty of the modern world. No matter the difficulty of attempting to forecast future manpower levels, any manpower planner in an organisation will nevertheless have to make the attempt. The lack of this in most business organisations has resulted in dismal failure the way manpower is being managed. Therefore, this section would try to provide answers to the followings: (1) What type of relationship exists between job placement and labour productivity? (2) Would effective manpower systems analysis increase workers' morale in industry? UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 11 (3) What type and extent of relationship exists between manpower systems analysis and earnings per share? (4) To what extent could manpower systems analysis affect market rate of return on capital assets? (5) To what extent could manpower systems analysis reduce the rate of absenteeism in industry? (6) To what extent could manpower systems analysis affect finance and business management in industry? (7) What are the major factors affecting organisa­ tional /management effectivenes in industry? Purpose of the Study Although manpower systems analysis is still a relatively new manpower management tool in the country, a few business organisations employ manpower managers whose knowledge of the preparation and utilisation of the management tool has been growing, and who have over the years been consistent in its usage in reducing manpower problems in their various organisations to a manageable proportion. The need therefore arises to find out whether manpower systems analysis as a management tool is being effectively used in industries in Nigeria and if not, what are those steps that can be taken to UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 12 bfing about its effective utilisation. This study, therefore attempts to find out what the implications are for effective utilisation and non-utilisation of manpower systems analysis in industries. Significance of the Study It is hoped that data generated would help human resource managers in fashioning out their policies in the direction that will positively influence their organisations' interests in drawing up manpower systems analysis as an effective means of bringing about maximum utilisation of manpower resources. This study, it is hoped, would contribute to principles aiding the practice of manpower forecasting in industry. It is also intended that the results of this study would contribute to a fuller comprehension of the relationship between manpower systems analysis and productivity. If manpower managers are able to understand the relationship between manpower systems analysis and productivity, absenteeism and job commitment, they would take steps leading to the creation of conditions conducive to the attainment of higher productivity, lower absenteeism, and higher job commitment. If Nigerian industries will adopt manpower systems UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 13 analysis, it will help them to reduce non-utilisation, under­ utilisation and over-utilisation of labour. It may make workers' jobs more stable than would otherwise possible. From the findings of the study, it is hoped that manpower managers would be aided in understanding why some of their staff members leave, why some absent themselves from work often, and also why productivity is low. It may be in fact that those who stay are not necessarily satisfied nor committed as in some other occupations, and according to Krause, although the percentage of leavers may be low yet "a profound morale and mobility crises is in progress among many who have not left" (Krause, 1971). An understanding of organisational behaviour requires an examination of the on-going behavioural process which goes on between the organisations and the workers. This will assist the manpower manager to modify those on-going process with a view to improving both system performance effectiveness and the quality of organisational experience for the individual member of the organisation. The Scope of the Study The researcher is limiting himself to selected industries in Lagos, and the choice was based on the premise that UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 14 comparison will be made less cumbersome since they are affected by the same local business conditions. The choice of the scope of the study was also influenced by availability of relevant data, limited financial resources at the disposal of the researcher and that a greater percentage of industries are located or have their headquarters situated in Lagos. Definition of Terms Manpower Systems analysis A process of identifying the different groups of people within the organisation and quantifying the manpower flows, among, into and out of these groups. Basically, this is an internal analysis that includes an inventory of the workers and skills already available within the organisation and a comprehensive job analysis with a view to using information to divide the organisation into its basic manpower groups. Manpower forecasting A management technique for assessing an organisation’s future manpower requirements, and the likely ability of the organisation in meeting those requirements. Management effectiveness The extent to which the objectives of an organisation are attained through the activities of its managers with respect UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 15 to labour productivity, labour turnover, attitudes of employees to their jobs/company, return on equity and earnings per share. Correlates They are things which have a close shared relationship or causal connection. Industries An industry is a collection of firms producing the same or identical commodities e.g. banking industry is a collection of firms which perform banking operations. Job A set of activities performed regularly by one person in one particular company for pay. Recruitment The process by which an organisation fills or refills some vacant positions within the organisation. Under-utilisation This is a situation whereby for one reason or the other, a worker performs below his/her maximum capacity e.g. ten workers perform the work that is meant for five workers. Over-utilisation This is a situation whereby a worker is made to perform UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 16 more than his/her maximum capacity e.g. five workers are made to perform the work that is meant for ten workers. Turn-over rate This is the rate at which workers leave an organisation either voluntarily or involuntarily for other organisations for alternative employments. Limitations of the Study The research work was supposed to cover some selected industries in Nigeria, but the researcher has to limit himself to selected industries in Lagos. As it was mentioned somewhere in this work, the choice of the scope of the study among others was based on the fact that a greater percentage of industries are located or have their headquarters situated in Lagos. Considering this fact, we can safely use our findings in Lagos to generalise for the whole country, but great care has to be exercised when doing this because of the "contaminating effect" which local environmental factors (Physical and socio/cultural) may have on our findings. This research is a pioneering work in this aspect of manpower studies in Nigeria and as a result., further researches are recommended to validate or otherwise the hypotheses stated in this work. UNIVERSITY OF IBAD N LIBRARY 17 CHAPTER TWO THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Human situations and human needs are complexd. Not only should a manpower manager develop a frame of reference for understanding the reasons behind the behaviours of workers, he must also understand the environmental factors that influence these behaviours. This chapter presents a conceptual and operational models on manpower systems and management/organisational effectiveness. As Vaish (1973) rightly observes, the term "model" conveys "the same sense of a small material object possessing essential features of some other object (Vaish, 1973). A model in that sense may be regarded as a replica of some material object which is to be constructed. A model may be either deterministic or stochastic, static or dynamic and each model is used to handle some problem at hand. A model may have both exogenous and endogenous variables in it. There are many theories that have some bearings on manpower systems and management/organisational effective­ ness. However, only a few of them shall be discussed based on their relevance to this study before we then settle for an appropriate model for our present study. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 18 MANPOWER MODELS In analysing manpower problems and issues, we must first describe the manpower group in a way which reflects the key elements of its structure and the main routes by which individuals move into, through, and out of it. We then look at the problems of analysing and quantifying the three main kinds of factors influencing the behaviour of the system which include our future manpower requirements, the pattern of future losses, and our replacement policies. This requires us to look at the behaviour of our manpower systems in a dynamic way so that we can examine how they are likely to respond over time to the key influences on them and then assess the input of any new policy option which might be pursued, this process by which we turn the handle on a manpower system to move it into the future is that of modelling the manpower system (Bramham, 1980). Manpower modelling is undoubtedly one of the most rewarding areas of manpower planning work but unfortunately, it is one which is still viewed with a great deal of scepticism and apprehension (Emshoff and Sisson, 1970). Much of the problem according to them, is a reflection of the way manpower planning developed during the 1960s and the early UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 19 1970s as a high mathematical technique-based activity to the extent that manpower models became synonymous with mathematics. The presumption was that by making manpower models more complex, striving to reflect every small detail of the real situation that they would more accurately represent the present and as a consequence better predict the future and the manpower policies which should be followed. The resulting techniques were invariably expensive to build and run. It is only recently that our perception of how we should look at and use manpowerr models has matured. There are many manpower models now available which manpower experts can make use of in describing and observing in a dynamic way the structure and behaviour of a manpower group. We have to note that there is considerable advantage, particularly at first, in carrying through the modelling calculation manually, but with considerable complexity of the manpower system, the benefits of computerising the computational chart are quickly seen. Using a computer model not only adds speed and accuracy, but also encourages the kind of flexible, interactive approach to analysing manpower problems and issues which we would wish to encourage. Some of the manpower models that have been found to be UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 20 useful are as follows: a) Complex System: By relieving the need for calculations to be carried out manually, computerisation facilitates the modelling of much more complex manpower systems with many interacting boxes and flows. b) Push/Flow Interactions: Many real-life manpower systems include examples of both "push" and "pull" flow types. A typical example would be "pushing" staff out of a training grade at the end of their instruction and promoting them to the first job grade; exit from this grade only being possible, however, if a vacancy arises at a higher level e.g. a "pull" flow. Computerisation again helps make light work of the computational chart involved in simulating such a flow system (Fishman, 1973). c) Fluid Grading: This facility allows a target to be set on the numbers employed in one specific grade, but in a number of grades, usually at the same level in a manpower system or within a single stream of the system. Such a facility UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 21 is particularly useful acording to Bowey (1976), where the objects of the modelling process is to highlight the impact on a manpower system of an equal opportunity policy, as the main point of interest is the differential promotion flows between men and women. In such a situation, we would want to recognise these separately within the manpower system. d) Flow and Age Profile Weighting: Weights are an alternative way of definining the promotion mix between two or more flows or age bands, taking account of the numbers in the boxes or bands from which promoters are being taken. Computer models easily handle the extra calculations required when using weights. e) Promotion spreading facilities: Having set an age profile to characterise the promotees from one box in the manpower system to another, it is possible that problems arise if there are insufficient people in one age band to satisfy the required call upon it. Some computerised models have rules built in them which alow for the spreading of unsatisfied promotions from that age band. Sometimes UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 22 these work out by filling up to the required number of promotions from the next youngest age band, sometimes by spreading in either direction from the exhausted age band in relation to the relative contribution of these bands (Daft, 1983). f) Costing: While manpower models have traditionally used manpower numbers as their unit of measurement, it is frequently more important from management point of view to look at manpower decisions in terms of their financial impact. Computer models are increasingly being developed to allow cost per head to all staff in a particular manpower box in a more refined manner by applying a more detailed costing structure taking account of such factors as age and experience. Also in the words of Bartholomew and Morris (1971): Costs can also be attributed to the movement of a typical individual along any particular recruitment, promotion, or leaver flow to give a total cost picture over time for any particular set of operating assumptions and policies. (Morris, 1971). UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 23 All the models described above are called aggregate, deterministic simulation models, because we model the behaviour of the system as a whole and no change is assumed in the application of our operating assumption. Other types of manpower models, as described below, have been developed to meet particular sorts of requirements, g) Steady State or Equilibrium models: Equilibrium models are based on a mathematical theory that if the recruitment, promotion, retirement, and growth assumptions about a manpower system are kept unchanged and its wastage patterns remain constant, then overtime the system will reach a steady state or equilibrium position in which the promotion of people at each level will remain constant. In effect as Braham (1980) puts it, "the organisation has reacheed a state where it can maintain its preffered manpower policies in definitely from one year to the next, and is, therefore, sometimes described as having an "ideal" age distribution", for retirement bulges or promotion blockages are avoided. By comparing the current age profile, users of equilibrium UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 24 analysis believe that an indication is given of the likely extent of future manpower problems. Unfortunately, when such a model has attraction in theory, when used in practice it presents a number of problems of analysis and interpretation. For instance, uncertainty and change in an organisation make the requirement of constant growth, loss and replacement assumptions that are necessary to achieve the equilibrium state highly unrealistic. Also, because the model calculates on the "ideal" age profile by solving mathematic equation, rather than "simulating" the passage of the manpower systems through time, there is no way of estimating how long it would take, even if constant operating assumptions were possible, to reach the "ideal" in practice (Daft, 1983). (h) Individual stochastic simulation models: Modelling for small groups of employees presents particular problems for the manpower planner. In this sort of situation, individual behaviour and chance become much more significant than with larger groups and the use of aggregate analysis with exact deterministic flows is no longer appropriate when such models are applied to UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Tig 2* i • A n -fitful level 2. I------------- “1 I _ ________ i I I level i J I I II I ------- l I_____________ ___ _______ J Vncvle. evdrtxvdbs, :Fevf\c\le €̂ tv< tv\clicoffes £\rec\ o-JJ- gyĉ olCwg UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 26 small number groups, resulting flows will often, unhelpfully, be in terms of fractions of people. Because of the more significant individual component within the smaller group. It also means that a greater level of detail has usually to be included within any modelling process. To meet this kind of need, in the words of Donaldson and Scannell (1978), "stochastic models have been developed which against the background of a manpower system as previously described in terms of stocks and flows, stimulate individual movement within the system allowing for the stochastic or change element present". (Donaldson and Scannell, 1978). In these models, rules governing movements are no longer applied as precise proportions and rates,but rather as probabilities, with each event within the operation of the model treated as a trial for which there is either success or failure governed by the level of probability applied to it. e.g. an individual leaves or stays, or is promoted or not, but movement of fractions of people is never possible. Stochastic simulation models are often highly UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 27 sophisticated and complex in design. This degree of complexity, however, creates a major problem when these sorts of model are employed in practice. First, their requirement for input data is very demanding because information is no longer recorded on an aggregate basis but must be recorded against every individual within the system. Further, because of the large number of variables interacting at any point in the operation of the model and the underlying stochastic element, it is often extremely difficult to assess how a change of policy affects the behaviour of the underlying system. Generally, individual stochastic models are expensive to set up and run, and the volume of output makes interpretation difficult. According to Bowey (1976), experience suggests that these kinds of models only really contribute when they relate to extremely small groups, more importantly, some broad aggregate analysis has to be undertaken, first, to map out the general behaviour of the manpower systems. (i) Optimisation Model: All the types of models discussed so far operate on the principle of identifying the implications for the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 28 bahaviour of the manpower system for given assumptions. Any manpower planning enquiry, therefore, probably requires a number of parallel runs to be undertaken to evaluate alternative options as a basis for subsequent decision making. In contrast, the body of optimisation models sets out to establish for a given set of manpower goals, what the optimal manner of achieving them is. Most of the work on optimisation models has centered on the application of mathematical programme techniques. At the heart of such techniques are the "objective functions" which define in mathematical terms the manpower goal to be achieved. The objective function is essentially a "cost" function to be minimized, where cost is used in a number of alternative senses e.g. salary bill, cost of employment policies, cost of not meeting target complements. Against the objective function, a number of constraints can be defined which express features of the manpower systems and its behaviour over time. So, for instance, constraints equations can be used to express the promotion rules of the system. Given an objective function and associated UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 29 constraints, mathematical programming analysis can be used to solve the equations and identify an optimal set of employment policies, if one exists. Recently, it is recorded by Decenzo and Robbins (1989), that there has been considerable development in the United States of America of goal programming models set out to minimise the discrepancy between future specified staffing levels and those actually achieved. Complex sets of constraints equations describe the structure and operation of the underlying manpower systems, often with a stochastic element in them. In practical terms, optimisation models have met with mixed success. Their complexity, sometimes running into thousands of variables and equations, makes them formidably expensive to design and implement. While they have been used to analyse manpower strategy in relation to large manpower systems with many parallel jobs streams, the sophistication of the underlying mathematics makes them difficult to comprehend and properly interpret. Too often, they have been utilized as no more than a report writing mechanism. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 30 MODELS OF MANAGEMENT/ORGANISATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS A variety of effectiveness models have been used but there is no consistency across studies. We shall discuss three of the various models of effectiveness used in organisational and management research which are relevant to this study. They include capital asset pricing model, Assessment of Fitness for the future model, and multiple domains and constituencies model. a) Capital asset pricing model: This approach examines the securities markets and adjusts returns for risk faced by the firm. In the opinions of Weston and Brigham (1978) and Reilly (1979), this model compensates for the deficiencies in accounting data. The market return is used to indicate the firms long-run performance potential on behalf of its' shareholders. It is often referred to as shareholders' value or market returns. The premise is that firms should seek assets with a minimum amount of risk for a given level of return. Langetieg (1978) suggests that it represents the best theoretically-derived firm performance index currently available, this approach may UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 31 provide a better indicator of long-run organisational effectiveness than most other financial measures. However, it also has deficiencies. The assumption of a positive relationship between risk and return has come under increasing criticism (Bowman, 1980). Additionally, it emphasizes only one, albeit significant, constituency-stockholders. Therefore it conflicts with the currently popular view that organisations must satisfy, at least minimally, multiple constituencies in order to survive. That is to say, it is an inadequate expression of the real-world multi-goal existence of organisations. b) Assessment of Fitness for the future model: It has been suggested that organisations go through a normal process of evolution much like humans and only the fittest survive. Organisations can survive only if they operate effectively in the present and have the foresight and capability to anticipate and prepare for the future (Connors, 1979). Ross and Good fellow (1930) suggest that an organisation can only stay fit (resilient) by having demands placed on it. d Organisations must be tested in order to sharpen their UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 32 skills in self-correcting responses. This process is similar to maintaining physical fitness or mental i. activity in humans. Muscles must be tested to remain strong. People maintain sharp problem solving skills by confronting and solving problems. Thus an organisational effectiveness measure is appropriate to the extent that it provides a reading on the organisation's fitness for the future (Thompson, 1967). Organisational fitness requires performance appropriate for the key constituencies and the important domains. Thompson (1967) suggested that fitness for the future could be assessed in one of three general ways (efficiency tests, instrumental tests and social tests) depending on the degree to which standards of desirability are crystallized and the degree to which knowledge about cause/effect relationships, efficiency tests are used. However, where standards of desirability are clear but knowledge about cause/effect relationships are incomplete, efficiency tests are not appropriate. Instrumental tests should be used in this situation. Where standards of desirability are ambiguous, social tests must be used. These are depicted in Figure 2.2. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 33 members. Often these domains refer to the population served, technology utilised and services provided by the organisation. Domains may also be externally mandated such as in the case of some government agencies; c) Multiple domains and constituencies model: This model begins from the premise that organisations must identify their multiple effectiveness domains and multiple constituencies. Connolly et.al. (1980) argue that with multiple constituencies, differential effectiveness assessments must be made by different constituents. Further, Gaertner and RamnGrayan (1983) suggests that different effectiveness measures (accounts) are required for internal versus external constituents. The interaction of domains and constituencies affect the type of measure necessary to assess effectiveness as shown in Figure 2.3. Quinn and Cameron (1983) contend that effectiveness criteria utilised change in predictable ways as organisations move through their life cycles. In the first stage (entrepreneurial), emphasis is placed on growths resource acquisition and development of external UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY -34- "Fcguve, Z-Z- meat, of -fW ike TuttArt3\orleL &hw\c{ tfvvc{s. CotArse./iE-p-Pecfc Rel<5vhi©v\sWbS. Known Uv\kv\ou>v\ Clear Infe/rnn-l 1 nstvaw\e^d:a( ■H-̂ |nUev\Cy C Groal *) A\eAsn/f̂ $> Ac-Covn l̂i sWn\av-'t (, Output, measures^ A m k ig iaow^ S>ocxal Covn^risons on i v\+e.rv\c\.\ process measures So»Arce.’ XT. J>. TR̂wt̂Sov̂ • ©Y,gQwv,s<\fie>v\ ^ Ac-'Hon HCV€.q̂toA x'YsoorckK/o,n M*~ef.K̂ Goytyra vo-Rill, 1^47 p. 8 5 ;c*r' ̂ Ĵeŝvy . Sf-. RvaĴM'vaa ' V0̂t'̂ 9̂3/f1.107 . UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Although the basic components of this model are highly relevant, the measurement of effectiveness is even more complex than the model suggests. For example most organisations have multiple constituencies that must be at least minimally satisfied (Keeley, 1978). Additionally, Cameron (1980) notes that many organisations do not have typical structural linkages hence making them difficult to manage and their effectiveness difficult to assess. These include business conglomerates, large service organisations, colleagues and universities, large government agencies, etc. Cameron (1981) suggests that the complexities of these organisations and their effectiveness require examining effectiveness as a multiple domain construct. For example, Cameron (1981) identified four major internal and external domains (major spheres of importance to an organisation) of effectiveness for colleges and universities. These include internal academic, morale and extra curricular domains and an external adaptation domain. Cameron (1980) defines domains as the activities (including the evaluation criteria) chosen to be emphasised by dominant coalition UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 36 ^ 3 iArs.Z-3 : 2AuCPomsuAv^. CoKVstZt̂ -ê vfcs a+vcks Hff ecrtwerX&SS /H^sav-em^en^lAc^^ HFFgCTtVgNH&S ^QMAIN£> i n t e r n a l external Internal S AS.tr u vACv\ta\ Internal Pppcenof A\ec\svvres InstrumentalEfficiency Measures Measures MeAsure.s S'ffcktroee*., S"ttanogoe. I■nprtoec/nal rv\<4 I n te r n o L P r o c e s s External Measeussres ConsHtue*^ Cr(W( M e a s iX re s Consttuevvt CrCk.r\o| Measures Measures Internal *I n stv t\ YA&v̂ CoX. Internal Instrumental /Amsurts M e a sures M e a suresNi Measures Stacie. iErternal pourInternal Internal External Cons titaeAfc Constl iuent Process Measures Criteria Measures Process Measwres C rite r ia . M easu res S o u rce . -.- Actaf>te«l 'jyom A V A - -ft it t ^ M e a su re s cp © y gani,Sock'ex<*t TpfectVvCvxess \ M ialt\ Me. T>ovr\£\'\.v\s c\ v\ oi Go rv$ t\ H\'nc.i es ̂ AVi»\e\gevne/vct TvrV6Trt«M R-ariCi/o • V»|. afc Ns. 1988 • £ *0 N S T 1 T M E N C -Y S T K A T E Grl C E X T E R N A L I N T E R N A L - UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 37 support. Thus the focus is on external constituencies (for resource acquisition and external support) but internal domains (growth). Criteria such as human resource development, morale and employee need satisfaction are dominant in the second stage (collectivity). These criteria relate to internal constituents but often are still concerned with growth (and therefore external domains). In the third stage (formalisation), effectiveness is defined in terms of internal process and goal attainment with primary emphasis on productivity, efficiency and stability. The organisation is more mature and tends to focus on internal constituents and internal domains. The fourth and last stage (elaboration of structure) is one in which the focus is on the external environment to renew itself or expand its product/service base. The focus is on both external constituents and external domains (adaptation). The criteria depend on the dominant external constituents. Therefore, the progression of organisational development in accordance with effectiveness measurement would move from UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 38 (1) internal domains/external constituencies through (2) external domains/internal constituencies (3) internal domains/internal constituencies to (4) external domains/external constituencies. The work of Quinn sand Cameron (1983) supports the type of effectiveness measurement (given the focus of an organisation in each of the stages) as determined by the relevant domains and constituencies. As shown in figure 2.3, internal efficiency measures should be the dominant effectiveness measurement where the domains are internal and the constituencies are internal. In this situation the organisation has more control, can more easily predict cause/effect relationships and can better specify the standards. As such, it more closely resembles the closed system noted by Thompson (1967). There are few examples that can be cited whereby organisations should be in this call. Quinn and Cameron (1983) note, however, that organisations reaching a mature stage in their life cycle often turn to an internal focus and thus use efficiency measures. In the external domain/external constituents cell, UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 39 cause/effect relationships are not well understood and desired standards are ambiguous. Consequently, the dominant form of effectiveness measurement should involve social comparisons on external constituent criteria. A large business conglomerate is a representative example for this cell. This type of firm typically must use multiple measures of external constituent criteria such as customer satisfaction, staff's ability to deal with external constituents, etc. and must examine those most important to their strategic constituencies (of which there will be several). These large organisations should (and probably will) use measures from all four groups. However, social comparisons on external constituent criteria may more accurately represent the firm's effectiveness (and therefore should receive the strongest weighting). Although other effectiveness measures may be used in any of the cells, those noted should be the dominant form used. Since most organisations have multiple constituents (Connolly et.al., 1980) and multiple effectiveness domains (Cameron 1981), a multiple set of effectiveness measures should be used (Ranter and Brinkerhoff, 1981). UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 40 The interaction effects of domain and constituents also suggest that organisations should analyse strategic units (divisions) rather than effectiveness of the whole organisation. Gaertner and Ramnarayan (1983) suggest that organisations do so because effectiveness measurement for the whole would be a massive undertaking. Undoubtedly, it would be a complex project. However, examining major parts of the organisation may be necessary in order to measure effectiveness accurately. In summation, the models stated so far need to be synthesised to form a proper base that is relevant to this study - manpower systems analysis as a correlate of organisational/management effectiveness. Hence, our proposed model named conceptual model on manpower systems analysis and organisational/management effectiveness is derived jointly from the plethora of models and theories previously analysed. It is so carefully designed as to i make possible the understanding of the concepts of manpower systems analysis and organisational/management effectiveness. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 41 CONCEPTUAL MODEL ON MANPOWER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS RHP ORGANISATIONAL/MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS Figure 2.4 presents a framework of manpower systems analysis and the actions to be taken in order to have organisational/management effectiveness in industries. To undertake manpower systems analysis, existing company objectives, organisational structure, manpower requirements and manpower inventory must be provided. After knowing the manpower requirements and the manpower available, plans to reconcile manpower requirements with the available manpower in order to meet the company’s objectives can then be carried out. The objectives are provision of staff with a view to ensuring the right number and kinds of people required for given jobs with necessary levels of skills and ages, engaging in the correct job at the right time, carrying out the right activities, and achieving the right objectives in order to fulfil a corporate plan. This requires the preparation of the replacement schedule which brings together the required establishment, and the existing staff so as to know the action(s) to be UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY ©nJVUm|?o(4>e^ tfstems^nabrsTs aneV <&rgaiii£a6ionaV/3\anagQm^t/^jf^tWc*iz&& Ma.wpoooeY fĉWewvevfe ŜSJSKeT AoiioY»s t lae.'bxk&w R e s u l t s ^i;Emot‘i©'AS^ v) R^bvewoUme^fc e ^ < w \s L » v s . (.Wjh (i) L.at>our Pnwl acidity -fcii'eouwS*̂ oirrgeaq̂n.ivsree.*-- *) Course Assi£v\*oe*cfcs^ tKe-̂ j olo 'hrai/Abvŷ 6i) n-ov eY ŷv^cevudâbi s k oWU A4^vs *\- \7.' ^(yi^C^ntuvxous upolaXwg (?0e >ATf-\H{r>fluoleskri^vCfc ouees . "hi° fiK ev, r q,j) i) tfemw\î3 Storfp °-j- plows -HwovA^k J n bs / C» w\ p YQ. "YtVVTa©uvvONt WvJa cvv\c| Jler&Ub' — ouieY Pic** it) mjDVNCiU XT v.'OReAu/rKy s- ̂A-ss ets Re-^u We.vA£vô Yw \reeeCq uir/e- ^ SeAf- cUv^pme^ COo>bVjVpo we-r /'Acvnpo ioev ectives Covvh&'t Xywevvtĉruj S o u r c e s - -A?lapfeol -fVx>w\ (») AA- »A • +-frff ^/Measures, of (9 ro<^wvs«cb&K^ lErp£ectivew=>s j /M ultiple ^ c .v n a ii\s ovnU C o n ^ tih u e ^ cie s41 a \ /R . Vo|. .28 *0 2 , i 5>sk (*) .Botoey, M - A - Av»gefa. (15 7 3 ) A Guicfe. -fo AW^potoer rlarvKUvg4'^ /A ^ c A e s ie r B>m3\~\s Ma ^•A |aoLOfcv P|g\y\v\U\̂ UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 50 (b) Career Opportunities: The works of Allen (1979) and Charles et.al. (1971) indicate career opportunity as a cause of high staff mobility. According to Gray (1966), the likelihood of this process occurring in an organisation can be estimated by calculating the proportion of the total labour force under consideration who occupy "career" jobs sand are aged between 19 and 35. The hypothesis behind this parameter is that only in a labour force which contains employees whose jobs fit them for an upwardly mobile career and who are at an age when they might be seeking to further their careers, will we find labour wastage resulting from this process (Lawson, 1990). The labour wastage rate obtained might need to be weighted to allow for the extent to which the particular organisation provides career - promoting experience. (c) Alternative Jobs: When there are alternative job opportunities for the employees, labour wastage rate tends to be higher. It has also been shown by some investigators that this frequently correlates with external economic factors such UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 51 as unemployment rates, when we take unemployment rate as an indicator of the availability of alternative jobs. Boseman (1979) shows in four factories selected that the higher the rate of unemployment, the lower the labour turnover index. In the same manner, Hyman (1970), after studying two factories, finds a clear negative relationship between unemployment rate and labour turnover index. Amongst the other researchers who refer to this process of labour being attracted away faster when alternative employment opportunities are available are Nadler, (1970); parsons, (1970); Allen, (1979) and Boseman (1979). As we have said above, this process may be assessed from unemployment figures. However, we have to find out which labour market, these particular employees would look to for alternative jobs, whether local, national, the same industry or different industry. (d) Conflicts and Poor relationship: When an employee becomes dissatisfied with his/her job owing to the stresses arising out of interpersonal conflicts and poor relationship, there is every likelihood that he or she will leave. Weiner and Mahoney UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 52 (1981), in their explanations of labour turnover in restaurants, particularly the typical pressures experienced by waiters and waitresses declare that a wise management must try to relieve these tensions by such devices as personal interviewing and by creating group meetings. According to the report on a study conducted by the Tavistock Institute of Human Relations which was published by the Hotel and Catering Industry (EDC) (1969) the most important factor responsible for labour turnover is management's failure to control stresses and strains on their employees. Fleishman and Harris (1962), and Tally, et.al. (1971), see unsatisfactory supervision of management (from the point of view of the employees) as sources of interpersonal strains in an organisation.t For example, inequitable treatment from supervisory staff could be a major cause of turnover amongst the hourly paid workers. In an organisation where the labour force is so unstable that the employees have little opportunity to form stable relationships, labour turnover may be high particularly in situations where the new comers UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 53 are frustrated in their need to belong to a cohesive working group (Van de Merve and Miller, 1971). This process is difficult to assess because descriptions of interpersonal relationships rarely occur in any kind of statistics collected by management. But according to Greystone et.al. (1982), we may hypothesis that when this process is occurring, there will be a higher frequency of dispute involving emotional outbursts than when it is not. In the majority of situations, this parameter will need to be assessed subjectively by someone who is fairly intimately acquainted with the behaviour of the employers and can be relied on to give an honest opinion (Bowey, 1973). (e) Deliberate laying off of staff by management: When there is a deliberate action on the part of management to lay off their workers labour wastage results. Because of the peculiar fluctuating nature of trade in some industries, some workers may have to be laid off during "slack'* periods to reduce labour costs. This process has not attracted much attention from researchers into labour turnover partly because it is not so evident in industries where the trade does not UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 54 follow marked seasonal cycles. It is however characteristic of the hotel and restaurant industry and garment making industry (Department of Employment, 1969). This process would be reflected in a low or non existent recruitment rate. Redundancies and sackings would also indicate the incidence of this process; however, many organisations would cope with the problem of having too many staff by natural wastage, particularly if there were high rates of mobility in the industry. The formula we can use to determine the significance of this process in a given situation could be: number declared redundant+no sacked+no recruited Average recruitment rate The greater the number the more significant is this process. (f) The Induction Crisis: This process occurs only to new recruits to the organisation within the first few months of their employment. In the opinion of Rice et.al. (1979), induction crisis is the period during which casualties result from the initial interaction between the engaging company and the new recruits.. According to them, UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 55 induction crises is "that point which the initial positive acceleration in numbers leaving changes to negative acceleration". We should expect the length and severity of the induction crisis to vary between industries and between firms, since in many organisations there are traditions of putting new comers through trials of various sorts (Lloyd and Michael 1988). In some jobs, it may be difficult for some new comers to adjust to the physical, mental, social or psychological demands of the job to the extent that they leave during the first few weeks and as a result of their not being able to "cope with the job". With the respect to the work of Burgone (1968),and Silcock (1984), it is noted that a newly recruited employee to an organisation is a high turnover-risk person until he has become acclimatised to the physical and social environments in which he must work. * To assess the importance of the induction crisis as a contributory factor of an organisation's labour wastage, we must consider the rate of decline of the propensity to leave as length of service increases. We must also take into consideration, the fact that, since UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 56 the induction crisis is not relevant unless there are new recruits coming into the organisation, we must take into account the rate of recruitment of new employees (Kilbridge, 1981). (g) Loss of Unstable recruited: This process as discussed by Granovetter (1983) is a process whereby individuals with personality characteristics which make them more prone to leave than the average person in the labour force, join and later leave the organisation. Granovetter points out that as these people, if they exist, are eliminated from a group of entrants at some decreasing rate, the average rate of leaving of the group is highest in the first few weeks not only due to the factors contributing to the induction crisis (listed above under f), but also because of this loss of employees with low resistance to leave. Granovetter analyses data from individuals who had left and those who had stayed to check whether there were in fact individuals with characteristics which gave them a low resistance to leaving. He discovers that those who stayed longest in their jobs tended to share certain characteristics, which made him to conclude that the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 57 instability of the others might be due to the lack of those characteristics. According to him, there are four "characteristics" that are shared by long-serving employees and they are: 1. To have been older when they started. 2. To have been housewives before 3. Not to have passed any examinations. 4. To have had fewer previous jobs (Granovetter, 1983). The most rel iabl e characteristics for distinguishing short-stay from long-stay recruits is their tenure in previous jobs and their reasons for leaving their last job. We can analyse this process ex-post facto by identifying a set of characteristics which are peculiar to very short-term stayers; if we want to accept the view of Granovetter who identifies a set of characteristics of an unstable recruit for a particular firm, or possibly for the industry. We can then assessft how many such people there are in the labour force, and have a parameter for this process. We must however be careful in using the number of previous jobs of employees as the most promising characteristic of distinguishing unstable UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 58 from stable recruits as Granovetter does because making comparisons between firms in different industries can be highly misleading as the number of previous jobs which would constitute a large number would probably vary considerably from industry to industry because of the different rates of mobility which were typical of each industry. We may still have to make a correlation to the crude manner of previous jobs to take account of age and length of time since commencing employment (Neburagho, 1991). (h) Resources from shortage of labour: This process which may give rise to labour wastage is that in which shortage of labour possibly due to undermining, absenteeism, or turn-over of staff, leads to further wastage of staff. An example of this source of labour wastage is given by Gowler (1979). Figure 3.2 in the next page shows the diagram he uses to explain the process affecting the supply of labour to the firm. The process is that in which shortage of labour causes the existing staff either to work harder to cope with the pressure of the work or to work excessive overtime for the same reason. In the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY J ’fcg feetf pcrpcbimiincj rvrvtwre, of %umrs 'problem/* “ beiervninante of iker î/VPt?iŷ of Jiabowr "to ike * ^ewce. » 'cfourmat/ oj* JVto*w*gc>*vent' Vol. 6r JsTo. 1 7/lj&j) UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 60 restaurant industry, shortage of staff would usually result in the former activity, since in a restaurant, work must be done at meal times and cannot be spread over longer periods and coped with as overtime. Granovetter also stated that labour turnover could produce an increased workload for existing staff which might in turn lead to further turnover (Granovetter, 1981). This process can be readily assessed by calculating the volume of work per head. This will give the number of items of output or number of clients served per employee per month (or per week if data is available). In some industries where shortage of labour could be overcome by spreading the work over a longer working period for the existing employees, we would assess this process by calculating the average overtime hours per employee per month as Chaplain (1968) does. This is not usually possible in service industry because most i of the work must be done at times which suit the clients and not at the convenience of the organisation. (i) Changed working conditions: This process which might lead to employee quittals UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 61 arises when there are changes in the physical, men-tal, social or psychological demands of the job. Such changes make the job too difficult or too inconvenient for some existing employees, who may decide to leave because of the pressure to adapt to new requirements. For example, increased overtime working may upset the leisure-time activities of employees; more intellectually demanding work may be beyond the abilities of some staff; and in other cases reduction in the responsibilities of a job may cause employees to become bored and dissatisfied. These pressures may affect employees regardless of their length of service, and therefore differ from the induction crisis phenomenon which affects new employees. Amongst the researchers who find evidence of this source of labour losses, are Daft (1983), Daniel (1986), and Fildes (1989). Daft finds a strong relationship between turnover and competence at cle»rical work for employees in clerical jobs. Daniel finds that turnover increases when employees are faced with tasks which they could not manage. And Minor (1988) finds that turnover increases when the tasks demand causes the employees to feel frustrated. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 62 This process may be assessed from the recorded or estimated rate of change routine, methods, or jobs. A change is inclined in this count if it involves either re-learning on the part of the employees, or the employment of different abilities on the new task. (j) The availability of alternative roles: Employees may also leave an organisation because they find they can opt for a more desirable role, or possibly an unavoidable one. In the view of Daniel (1986), pregnancy, retirement, housewife (both at marriage or some convenient later time), social security dependence, winning the "pools" (rarely of course) may cause an employee to quit an organisation. As many writers indicate, the availability of alternative roles would not usually be evident from unemployment figures, which are indicators of the availability of alternative jobs . « The pull of alternative roles has been noted by David (1988) and by Kredlt (1983), both of whom observe that turnover for married women is generally higher than for single women. Daniel (1986) refers to this process of leaving for an alternative role as "uncontrollable UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 63 labour turnover". The most significant group of people who may have or may require the option of leaving their job for an alternative role (other than other job), according to Daniel (1986) are those people aged sixty or more, young unmarried girls and married women. This process cannot be rwe»ted~by unemployment statistics, but we could, as he says, estimate its likelihood of incidence in an organisation by calculating the proportion of people in an organisation who falls into these categories. Some organisations segregate retirements, and leaving because of pregnancy from what is sometimes called "avoidable turnover" and where this is done, there is no difficulty in differentiating these processes from others. 2. MANPOWER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND RECRUITMENT POTENTIAL Predicting the ability of a firm to recruit needed manpower is one of the most speculative areas of manpower planning. It is not possible to calculate in accurate number or to represent the rate at which certain types of specialists may be recruited in the future. The more stable and unchanging the situation, the more feasible UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 64 such a calculation would be, since it would then involve extrapolating present recruitment rates. But it is highly unlikely that all the factors which may affect recruitment in the organisation itself, in the economy, in technology, in education, training and many other fields, would remain constant for any length of time. Rather than attempting to predict the actual possible future rate of recruitment, the manpower planner would do better to consider all the influences which may affect future rates of recruitment and then to decide whether the future recruitment is going to be very difficult, average, easy or very easy by compa risen with present rates of recruitment. As shown in Figure 3.1, a number of the factors which affect a firm's ability to retain its staff may also affect its ability to recruit employees, but the process through which these factors affect recruitment ability are not usually the same as thosfe through which they affect retention. Taking the seven factors shown in Figures 3.1 in turn, the first is the attraction of alternative roles. This may affect recruitment ability if for example local UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 65 traditions relating to these roles are particularly strong. An employer, planning to recruit female unskilled labour in certain parts of Northern Nigeria may experience more difficulty than he would in other parts of Southern Nigeria. The problem can even be greater where there is a strong local tradition of married women staying at home, coupled with good local employment opportunities and rates of pay for men. The second factor to be considered is availability of alternative roles. As has been rightly pointed out by Knowles (1964), recruiting in an area where there is abundance of alternative opportunities is likely to be more difficult than recruiting in an area of high unemployment. If however, the future requirements for labour are likely to be more specific, then the availability of employment for these specific types of skilled persons needs to be taken into account. In the same vein, Drucker (1980), observes that: sometimes there are major changes in the availability of alternative employment which affect an organisation's recruitment power. Unilever, for example, were once the only source of employment for a large catchment area around Port sunlight (in England). But over a period of years the alternative sources UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 66 of employment have multiplied and significantly affected Unilever's case of recruitment. (Drucker, 1980). Where it is not possible to predict this kind of change in the local labour market, allowances should be made in the calculations of recruitment potential. According to the observation of Nadler (1970), one of the major determinants of the availability of alternative jobs’ is the level of unemployment, and national as well as local changes in unemployment levels should be considered. Another determinants as highlighted by Baruch (1984) is the state of technology in the industry. Changes in method of working which arise from advances in technology, according to her may produce major changes in the jobs available for different types of specialists. If one organisation in an industry is planning to recruit large number of certain type of specialist to cope with new equipment or new methods, it may be that many other organisations in that industry are planning t o make the same changes, and recruitment will be so easy as might have been expected. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 67 The third factor to be considered is the career opportunities provided by one's own organisation as compared with those offered by competing employers. While commenting on this issues Harris (1964) maintained that in order to assess how good the career opportunities are in a given organisation for a given type of specialist, the planner may score his organisation on the profile as shown in Figure 3.3. As one can see, the figure lists the factors which affect the promotion prospects intrinsic to a particular job in an organisation. At the side of each is a scale on which the score for that factor of the job under review can be marked. The points on the scales can then be joined up and the "prospects profile" can then be drawn for the jobs of divisional managers in a food processing factory. The more scores towards the right-hand end there are, the more attractive the promotion prospects intrinsic to the job. The first two factors indicate promot»ion prospects outside the firm; factors three to nine indicate promotion prospects within the Eirm. The profile in Figure 3.3 indicates that promotion prospects for these managers were better than average UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 68 Fbg.t 3-3.-I>et>erm.lKuvvg Koto gooc( ike career off&rbuMxfcCeA .v A/rz, -for cv p^vri^culcvr J o b t Num moderate. torfkb jeorb so fr eemdpwlioynege -sf bien s~Ha\me ela eLxwpre rmiaenrckee,t very m any many -feaj ve ry -peto over 5oo ioo -bo 5oo 50 to 100 lo -tb 5o lessteam. lo and recognising ■fHe same. promotion criteria Gs.'tr-ansfbroUe. jots} 2 -Rate of increase. in +ke. wkole labour Very -fust -fast moderate- slow Static. Mark®t of H\€. number of -trcvnj-jey- increasing by increasing by tncreaslmg by increasing by v\ot in creasing able j»b.s (0% and over 5% 10% per 2 % * 5 ' / 0 per about l% per even decreasing per anw uw annum ann irwv annum. As Co*v\|)aYto( coi-ttv er|t\er orgavuSa-ftoni employing Stmilar speckall-rfcs: 3. R ate of expansion of "fbe employer’s Cve roym paratfo hvaellfy ComparatvAjely Average Co vr̂ aratweUj Comparatively specialist Labour force, ( f a s Jot plus slow Sloto very -fast (doutfe. Ufgber grades fo wkick promotion is possiile -fre. average or jess Hit average orrnor^ 4- Size o f -f{\/s labour-foyxe. (including Comparatively ComparatCveX«j Average. ComparatCveUj Co m p aratcveXy b/gher grades') very Small (Half Svnad. Large ve ry large tkeavtrage. or less 5. Average. of age. »f specialist Labour more Hra»\ 10 upte (0 years, a v e ra g e Up tb lo years lo gears olcW force. (_i^cluc(un.g kigUer grades) years' younger younger te*n order team, team average team average average- average. &• Ceaf\fcraXi.siA ofker comp cun fes &. Product, otvvorsltj very fê a -feco average. VYlCVvw-j very vmamy ?i degree ° f seĝ entajti&v- Very muck. fCuver +Kow o r e/jrag e ?more. team. , Very muck, less -teo/v\> average. average cmwoemr,a tKaw. average. ge. g n u r c j - - ti-arWg. /Vtarv^iqAfl.\ *TRg S o c ia l A s s e t s o f U ^ o w r ~Ufi\av(!rt- Cv\ ~IKg- U S S R a> f c r f -K ^ j o u r n a l [n d u -v f r j j ' nn_'‘ , vo|. 2 , Ks. 3 M*r page. 4-S • UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 69 both within and outside the company. Good promotion prospects in the industry generally detract from this organisation's recruitment potential and therefore count as a "worse than average" score on the profile. By comparison with opportunities in other organisa- tions, these managers were being offered fairly good prospects. The total score should then be corrected to take into account the age (and consistently in most cases, the stage in career) of the typical man recruited for this job. The fourth factor in estimating recruitment potential is the comparative pay offered for work. Studies of organisations have shown that there are at least two changes in the organisation which, if they can be predicted, will give a fair indication of the direction of change of relative rates of pay. As enunciated by Connors (1979), the first are the results i of managerial plans to control labour cost inflation. As shown also by Lupton and Bowey (1972), pay packet structure may be redesigned so as to control unit labour cost inflation. According to them, where this kind of plan was put into action successfully, there are likely UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 70 to be long-term changes in the pay of workers concerned by comparison with workers in organisations which have not made similar changes. Wages and salaries may also change relative to other employers as a result of changes in company policy. One of the commonest causes of changes in pay relative to other organisations, is when an organisation enters a period of expansion. During expansion, increases in profitability allow the employer to pay increasing rates of pay or salaries. But when the expansion ceases, the only way of increasing profits, is by improving efficiency and economising and to be less generous with pay and salary increases. The fifth factor which may affect an employer's recruitment power is demographic changes, i.e the population from which the employees are to be recruited. In the opinions of Hyman (1970), Bowey (1976), Helter (1979), and DeCenzo and Robbins (1988), the characteristics of a population may change for a number of reasons. On a national scale there may be "bulges'' of people in certain age groups - as with the "bulge" of people born just after the Second world war. This kind UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 71 of buldge makes it easier to recruit young people starting their first job in some years than in others. On a local scale, as they have all agreed, the population from which recruits are drawn may change because of the building of a new town, the clearing of slum area, or the "ageing" of population in a long- established area. These changes may bring with them changes in the availability of various different skills as well as changes in the absolute size of the pool from which employees are recruited from different age ranges. The sixth factor which needs to be considered when future recruitment potential is examined is education i.e. the rate at which men and women are being trained or educated for this particular kind of job. Nigeria and indeed other countries have experienced a series of gluts and shortages of the time lag between the students' decisions to begin a particular course of training and the time that they finally qualify. If manpower planners were to take account of the numbers in training for the jobs they wish to fill, they could plan to avoid recruiting during periods of short supply and recruit instead when larger numbers became UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 72 available. At such time, the employers would have more choice of candidates and would probably not need to pay excessively high wages and salaries. In Nigeria, the information about numbers of students in training is published regularly by the Federal Office of Statistics, National Development Plans and the Central bank in its Annual statement of Accounts. If employers were to plan their recruitment in this way, this tendency towards gluts and shortages of specialists might be alleviated, as well as enabling the employers to avoid unexpected recruitment difficulties. The seventh and final factor which affects recruitment potential is the attractiveness of the work itself. Any change in the hours of work, the physical environment, the geographical location, the fringe benefits, the responsibilities or the status which go with the job will probably affect the employer's ability to recruit employees to his job in the future (Kelter 1979). In order to simplify consideration of all these factors and obtain an overall picture of the future UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 73 situation for recruitment, hayes and Abernathy (1980), devise Table 3.1 in which each of the seven factors to be * considered is given a weight which must account for the relative significance of these seven factors for the job being considered. In some jobs, for example, comparative pay may be such a significant factor as to swamp all the other six. In which case it would be given a weighting of over 0.50. In the table they insert a set of hypothetical weights for the purposes of illustration only. The particular job is then scored on the right- hand side of the table according to whether each of the seven factors is likely to deteriorate or improve in its contribution to the employer’s ease of recruitment. In the example shown in the table for a job, the manpower planner expects no significant changes in the roles, the population, or the peripheral attractiveness of the work. He expects the situation as regards availability of alternative jobs to deteriorate seriously from the employer's point of view (i.e improve from the employee’s point of view). And he expects a moderate UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 3.1 * Tevbta fur assessTvuj -future recruitment/ jx>terutu Signip'cance. Exj^ecte^ Change. (as 4 -fraction i f Is) .heteriomtion N o 1 mprove m evvt Fest weights Are. change F A C T O R Only suggestions Serious moolerute. Slight m[ slight ya oolemte. Seri ou s - 5 - 2 . - 1 O 1 2 - 3 A lt e r a t iv e , *“<>les 0 -0 5 X Alternative. j o b s 0 1 5 X 'RdatuJt Carter opportunities 0 -1 5 X C o m p a r a t i v e . p a y 0 -4 0 X J^emograplvic ch an ges 0 -0 5 X E d u c a - b i & r ^ 0 -1 5 X Peripheral a t t r a c t io n s O- 05 X Source.:-H 1.96 Significant at 0.05 level of confidence. Though a high positive correlation exists between the two variables the scores of respondents were still subjected to t-test statistic to test the level of significance of the relationship. The above table indicates the "t" calculated as 3.08 when the t observed is 1.96 at 0.05 level of confidence. In the words of Monsey (1958) ’"If the t calculated is equal to or greater than lthe value of t observed in the table, we reject the null hypothesis and accept the working hypothesis that the correlation exists. We therefore, reject the null hypothesis which UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 110 TABLE 5,3 ANOVA SUMMARY TABLE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MANPOWER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND WORKERS' MORALE (N = 950) Source of Variation df ss Ms i f i Between subjects 949 428.60 Within subjects 2850 172.00 i Between treatment 3 27.75 9.25 ! Residual (error) 2847 5893.3 2.07 j 4.42 Totals 3799 600.60 !!_____ - Table F = 2.60 Computed F = 4.42 df = 2847 Remark = significant at = .05 states that there is no significant correlation between effective manpower systems analysis and workers1 morale in industry, and in its place accept the research hypothesis that correlation exists between the two variables (effective manpower systems analysis and workers’ morale in industry). The result of ANOVA (Table 5.3) shows that the l critical value for the F statistic with 3 and 2847 degrees of freedom is 2.60 ( =0.05). The computed F is 4.42 and( since 4.42 > 2.60) there is as ignificant UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY Ill relationship between manpower systems analysis and workers' morale. This is in line with the result of the analysis in Table 5.2. The findings corroborate those of Pennings (1979), Braddick (1976) and Owei (1976) which state that .the morale of the worker is at its highest pedestal when the individual is the "right man for the job". The key to the success of any organisation is its ability to recruit candidates not only wanted and in number wanted, but with the kinds of qualifications wanted and at the appropriate time. Getting the right kind of workers and at the right time to feel vacant positions is what manpower systems analysis is all about. According to McCormick (1974) when workers are assigned to jobs for which their abilities are best suited, the morale increases. In agreement with Herzberg et.al. (1959), 900 out of the 950 respondents that were interviewed felt very strongly that a worker's morale increases when he is given a job that interests him and which relates to his ability and training, to perform. However, in the opinion of Inghan (1967) to which I strongly ascribe, to UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 112 the fact that it will be necessary to assess the potential capabilities of existing staff, finding out their range of present skills and abilities, assessing their potential for further development and incorporating these into a manpower audit before "the right man for the right job" can be employed. In this way, manpower systems analysis can then be used to increase workers* morale in industry. In addition to this, 800 of the respondents felt that the organisation may need to recruit from outside if the needed human resources are not found within the organisation, and the organisation should offer in return the best possible career development prospects to its employees. HYPOTHESIS II There is no significant correlation between manpower systems analysis and rate of absenteeism in industry. The rate of absenteeism is defined as the ratio of the number of times a worker does not turn up for work to the total number of times he/she is expected to be present for work per unit of time usually a month. The needed information to test the hypothesis is contained in Table 5.4. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 113 TABLE 5.4 CORRELATION BETWEEN MANPOWER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND RATE OF ABSENTEEISM IN INDUSTRY (N = 950) Variable N Mean S.D. r d.f Tabl e Calcu- Remark X 950 4.08 1.12 Reject U . oZ y 4 y i . y d b . 4 y tne hypothesise y 950 4.02 1.05 tc = 6-497 > 1.96 significant at 0.05 level of confidence. As it is shown in Table 5.4 the coefficient of correlation between manpower systems analysis and rate of absenteeism in industry is 0.82. This indicates a high positive correlation between the two variables. The scores of responses of respondents were later subjected to t-test statistic so as to test the level of significance of the relationship between the two variables. The table shows that the "t" * calculaied is 6.49 while the t observed is 1.96 at 0.05 level of confidence. Ins as much as the t calculated is greater than the t observed (tc = 6.497 > 1.96) we reject the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 114 null hypothesis which states that there is no significant correlation between manpower systems analysis and rate of absenteeism in industry. In its place we accept the research hypothesis that there is a significant correlation between manpower systems analysis and rate of absenteeism in industry. When an individual is confronted by situations, according to Brown (1979), in which his knowledge, innate intelligence and experience fail to produce the results he desires (like when a worker is assigned to a job which is at variance with his ability, training and aspirations) he becomes frustrated. The degree of frustration produced depends on many factors: on the individuals' tolerance, his previous history (both immediate and in early life) of frustration, his interpretation of the situation and the pressure under I which he is functioning. An organisation which does not engage in serious manpower systems analysis may not be able to assign workers to jobs that interest them. This is likely to bring frustration to such workers. One of the characteristics of a frustrated behaviour is high rate of absenteeism. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 115 In line with the contention of Brown (1979), 900 of the 950 respondents were strongly of the opinion that since manpower systems analysis is a devise used by management to assign workers to appropriate jobs, it indeed motivates workers to be regular and punctual at their jobs. Manpower systems analysis here helps to reduce the rate of absenteeism in industry. Majority of the respondents whose companies engage in serious manpower systems analysis stated that they were assigned to jobs that interest them and that they felt worried whenever they were inevitably unable to attend to their companies duties. In fact many of them said that they were glad putting in extra time to do their companies work anytime this was necessary. Boseman (1979) after studying sixty-three business organisations in Mexico; and Negandhi and Prasad (1381) in a study of thirty Indian business firms found that firms with progressive manpower systems analysis are more likely to experience low rate of absenteeism among their workers. However, majority of the respondents were of the opinion that there are other variables apart from UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 116 manpower systems analysis which affect the rate of absenteeism of workers e.g. sickness and the availability of alternative roles which interest the workers more than those available in the industry. HYPOTHESIS III There is no significant relationship between career development and workers' attitudes to their organisations. Workers' attitudes here is defined as workers' sense of devotion to duty, cooperation with others in the work places, willingness to take responsibility, sense of pride in working with the company and taking personal joy and pride in the achievements and reputation of the company. Like the preceding ones, the relevant informations to test this hypothesis are contained in Table 5.5 and Table 5.6. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 117 TABLE 5.5 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAREER DEVELOPMENT AKP WORKERS' ATTITUDES TO THEIR ORGANISATIONS [CHI-SQUARE TABLE] (N = 950) Frequency Service Manufac­ Trans Banking Petro­ Industry turing port chemical Observed 180 291 109 168 183 Frequency Expected 161 267 93 150 168 Frequency 2 Calculated X = 10.65 Control 2 = 9.49 X Df = 4 Remark = significant at 0.05 level of confidence 2 The critical value X 0.95 for degree of freedom [V = (h - 1) (k - 1) = 4] is 9.49. Then since 10.65 > 9.49, we reject the null hypothesis. Also the co-efficient of contingency being 0.5 ft indicates that the responses of the industries sre positively related, showing that there is no difference at all in their responses. We therefore reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no significant relationship between career development and workers' UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 118 attitudes to their organisations. We therefore accept the research hypothesis which states that there is a positive relationship between the two variables (career development and workers' attitudes). The result of Table 5.5 is then compared with that of Table 5.6 to see whether there is any difference. TABLE 5.6 CORRELATION BETWEEN CAREER DEVELOPMENT AND WORKERS' ATTITUDES TO THEIR ORGANISATIONS (N = 950) Variable M Mean S.D. r D.F. Tabl e t Remark Calcu- lated X 950 17.98 4.38 0.86 949 1.96 5.1 S y 950 6.76 3.25 tc = 5.1 > 1.96 significant at 0.05 level of confidence As it is shown in Table 5.6, the coefficient of correlation between the two variables is10.86 indicating a high positive correlation between career development and workers' attitudes to their organisation. The scores were then subjected to a t-test statistic in order to ascertain the level of significance of the relationship UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 119 between the two variables. The t calculated of 5.1 is greater than t observed of 1.96 at 0.05 level of confidence. We therefore reject the null hypothesis which states that no relationship exists between career development and workers’ attitudes to their organisations. McBeath, Gordon (1974) in agreement with the above findings looks at career planning and development from two points of view - the employee's view point and the company's viewpoint. In his opinion what the employee desires apart from basic reward of salary and other fringe benefits, are job satisfaction and credit for achievements. "The man of high calibre and with bis eyes set high us unlikely to accept any work situation in which he feels he may not grow satisfactorily, his loyalty (if that is the right word) will be held only by prospect of advancement", (McBeath, 1974). l Whether his post is at the top, middle or lower levels of the organisation will make little or no difference to his outlook. McBeath's analysis therefore is that the employee, looking at his employers and assessing his own future prospects, is likely to look for a number of UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 120 general pointers to the company’s attitude for sign of scope to develop and for indications of potential hazards. From the employers' point of view, McEeath feels that the justification for career development lies not with the fact that vacancies will continue to be filled as they occur but for the following reasons: 1. That career development helps to reduce labour turn-over and hence avoiding the expensive and time consuming business of recruitment, induction and orientation. 2. The creation of new posts, whether individually or as part of a whole new operation requires the planned preparation for an employee for a new role in such a way as to ensure that the new assignment is effective immediately it is launched, and not: from a day or month later when the recruits finally appreciate their roles. 3. Job growth has to be recognised and accommodated. Lawson (1990) in his part is of the opinion that as we are near the end of the twentieth century and stand on the threshold of the 21st century, human resources will become one of the most important assets in industry which need to be developed because according to him "there is a* high positive correlation between career development and the attitude of workers to their organisations. When organisations provide career development to their workers, such workers feel more committed to the ideals and aspirations of their organisations. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 121 HYPOTHESIS FOUR There is no positive correlation between effective job placement and workers' productivity. By effective job placement we mean placing a worker on a job which he can perform best given the available corporate factors of production. We are going to use the information contained in Table 5.7 to test this hypothesis. TABLE 5.7 CORRELATION BETWEEN EFFECTIVE JOB PLACEMENT AND WORKERS' PRODUCTIVITY (N = 950) Variable N Mean S.D r df Table Calcu- Remarks value 1 ated X ' 950 4.24 183 j 0.79 949 1.96 7.82 S i y 950 4.03 172 » tc = 7.82 > 1.96, significant at 0.05 level of confidence. Table 5.7 reveals that the coefficient of correlation (r) between effective job placement and workers' productivity is 0.79 indicating a high positive UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 122 correlation between the two variables. we later subjected the scores to t-test statistic to further determine the level of significance of the relationship between the two variables. As indicated in the stable, the calculated t is 7.82 which is greater than the fc observed of 1.96 at 0.05 level of confidence. We therefore reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no correlation between job placement and workers productivity. We therefore, accept the research hypothesis that there is a high degree of positive relationship between effective job placement and workers* productivity. It is the contention of 825 out of the 950 respondents that if workers are assigned to jobs which they can perform best, all other things remaining the same, the productivity will be at its highest. When workers were asked to mention other factors apart from t effective job placements which they think could affect their productivity at work, majority of them mentioned the quantity and quality of capital, materials, industrial harmony or conflict, reward systems, job security leadership style, and opportunity for UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 123 advancement. The above is in agreement with the view of Akintayo (1993) which states that despite the problems one is likely to face in trying to define or measure productivity, among the most important factors which affect labour productivity in a work situation are job placement, capital, direct and indirect materials, renumeration package and safety. The base for all the factors is giving a worker a job which he can best perform considering his level of education, training, age, experience etc. This goes to support the popular view that for any business concern to weather the storm and maximize profits, it has to assign workers to jobs where their proficiencies are highest. This increases their productivity and reduces the unit cost of production. Giving the workers the job he can do best lies at the heart of the employment function, which determines the relationship between the employee, his job, his environment and the enterprise which employs him. It is universally recognised by personnel executives that the results of their decisions in recruiting and UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 124 recommending suitable employees to appropriate jobs, determine to a large extent the community of workers who will constitute the organisation and directly participate in the accomplishment of its corporate purpose for many years into the future. HYPOTHESIS FIVE TABLE 5.8 CORRELATION BETWEEN MANPOWER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND MARKET RETURN ON CAPITAL ASSETS (n = 950) Variable N Mean S.D r d.f Tabl e Calcu- Remarks Value 1 ated t X 950 4.18 1.4 0.88 949 1.96 8.32 s y 950 3.97 1.05 tc = 8.32 > 1.96. Significant at 0.05 level of confidence. Majority of the respondents initially did not understand the meaning of the concept "market rate of return on capital employed". The researcher had to spend some time explaining the concept to them as defined in Chapter Two. It was amazing to see UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 125 their high level of understanding of the concept when a few questions were thrown to them to answer. This was done deliberately to see that they did not give false response to questions they did not understand. The market rate of return on capital employed is used to indicate the firms' long run performance potential on behalf of its shareholders. The coefficient of correlation between manpower systems analysis and market rate of return on capital employed is 0.88 as shown in Table 5.8. It indicates a high positive correlation between the two variables. To test whether the relationship is significant, we subjected the scores of responses of respondents to t- test statistic. The "t" calculated was 8.32 and was higher than the "t" observed of 1.96 at 0.05 level of confidence. We therefore, reject the null hypothesis which states that manpower systems analysis does not affect the market rate of return on capital employed. In its place we accept the research hypothesis that manpower systems analysis significantly affect's the market rate of return on capital employed. The result above is in agreement with those of UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 1/0 Weston and Brigham (1978) who measured the market rate of return on capital employed of fifty big companies in the United States as an indicator of long - run organisational effectiveness and Reilly (1979) who examined the securities market in the United Kingdom but adjusted returns for risk faced by the firm in order to determine the market rate of return on capital employed. This was then used to determine the organisational effectiveness of companies. According to the findings, the higher the market rate of return on capital employed, the higher is organisational effectiveness. Among the determinants of market rate of return on capital employed as enunciated by the authors is the ability of the firm in putting workers in appropriate positions to help the firm realises its objectives and goals. This is precisely what manpower systems analysis is all about. Majority of the respondents were of the opinion that the productivity of workers largely determined the market rate of return on capital employed. According to them »- the productivity of workers can be high only if they are assigned to appropriate positions at the appropriate UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 127 time. This can be efficiently carried out by using manpower systems analysis. HYPOTHESIS SIX There is no significant difference between the earnings per share resulting from fulfillment of workers' aspiration with respect to promotions and their non­ fulfillment on entering the organisation. Earnings per share is the ratio of earnings to ordinary shares i.e. Earnings per share = Earnings Ordinary shares Earnings are the total profits available for equity shareholders on the equity capital. This hypothesis will be tested using the analysis in Tables 5.9 and 5.10. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 128 TABLE 5.9 SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EARNINGS PER SHARE RESULTING FROM FULFILLMENT OF WORKERS' ASPIRATION WITH RESPECT TO PROMOTIONS AND THEIR NON-FULFILLMENT ON ENTERING THE ORGANISATION (N = 950) Variable N Mean S.D. r d. f Tabl e Calcu- Remark value 1 ated t X 950 4.21 1.18 0.90 949 1.96 9.24 y 950 3.81 1.12 tc = 9.24 > 1.96. Significant at 0.05 level of confidence. The correlation coefficient between the two variables is 0.90 indicating a high positive correlation between the earnings per share resulting from fulfillment of workers’ aspirations with respect to promotions and their non-fulfillment on entering the organisation. From Table 5.9, the t calculated of 9.24 is higher than t observed of 1.96 at 0.05 level of confidence. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBR ! A1 R|J Vi !J Y 129 TABLE 5.10 CHI-SQUARE TABLE SHOWING THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EARNINGS PER SHARE RESULTING FROM FULFILLMENT OF WORKERS* ASPIRATION WITH RESPECT TO PROMOTIONS AND THEIR NON-FULFILLMENT ON ENTERING THE ORGANISATION (N = 950) Industry Serving Manufac­ Trans­ Banking Fetro- \ turing port e-n ema■ cal, ![' Observed 182 289 106 167 i8? !i Frequency !i{ Expected 152 261 90 148 170 l! Frequency I 2 Calculated X = 13.44 2 Critical X = 9.49 Df = 4 Remark = Significant at 0.05 level of confidence The critical value X 0.95 for 4 degree of freedom t is 9.49. Since 13.44 is greater than 9.49, we reject the null hypothesis. This result corroborates those of correlation coefficient and t-test statistic. We therefore accept the research hypothesis that there is a significant difference between the earnings per share UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 130 resulting from fulfillment of workers' aspiration with respect to promotions and their non-fulfillment . on entering the organisation. This is in agreement with Lawler and Porters (1073) whose model suggests that performance leads to rewards and if these rewards are equitable from the point of view of the employee, satisfaction is the result which again leads to greater performance. they accept that promotions are one of the most important variables determining the level of job performance. According to them when a worker is promoted and if the level of promotion attained is in conformity with what he perceived he would get for a given level of performance, on entering the organisation, his level of job performance will rise substantially. There will be an increase in earnings per share via high job performance. t One of the most important incentives for any worker is promotion. This is the movement of an individual from a lower salary level or scale to a higher one and hence from a lower position of responsibility to a higher position. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 131 Majority of the respondents were of the view that merit should be the overriding qualifying factor for deciding promotion to higher levels within any business organisation. However, the determination of merit is the sole prerogative of management. Merit here means the individual's ability to meet demands of his work by self development, application and loyal service. In a normal situation every member of staff has the opportunity of attaining the highest grades in the company. Unfortunately, (though not unexpectedly) many workers interviewed alleged that other more important factors are considered in promotion. These factors are ethnicity, favoritism, god fatherism, personal influence, crawling to the boss, loyalty and obedience. However, most members of management did not cherish this allegations as they believed in justice, merit and fairplay as sole determinatnts of promotion of employees. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 132 HYPOTHESIS SEVEN There is no significant correlation between matching workers' aptitudes and interest to their jobs and workers' job commitment. By job commitment we mean readiness to assume responsibility, coming early to work and leaving at the appropriate time, cooperating with others for the success of the company and readiness to put in extra time when called upon to do so. The information contained in Table 5.11 will be used to test the hypothesis. TABLE 5.11 LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE BETWEEN MATCHING WORKERS' APTITUDES AND INTEREST TO THEIR JOBS AND WORKERS'. JOB COMMITMENT (N - 950) Variable N Mean S. D. r d.f Tabl e Cal cu Remarks value lated t X 950 9.1 3.58 0.85 949 1.96 8.9 S y 950 8.8 3.23 tc = 8.9 > 1.96. Significant at 0.05 level of confidence UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 133 As shown in Table 5.11, the coefficient of correlation between the two variables is 0.85 indicating a high positive correlation between matching workers' aptitudes and interest to their jobs and workers job commitment. To test the level of significance of the relationship between the variables the scores were then subjected to t - test statistic. The t calculated is 8.9 which is greater than the t observed 1.96 at 0.05 level of confidence. We therefore, reject the null hypothesis that there is a significant correlation between matching workers' aptitudes and interest to their jobs and workers’ job commitment. The above finding is in line with the studies of Abegglen (1958) on Japanese work-life and organisation where he reported extra - ordinary commitment, identification and loyalty which Japanese workers exhibit towards their firms, coupled ‘with a low rate of industrial conflict, absenteeism and labour turn-over. It is a known fact among management experts and organisational researchers that a high degree of job commitment of Japanese employees is (though not the only factor) responsible for the high degree of success which UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 134 their companies have recorded. Besides, the works of Marsh and Mannani (1977) ar.c Rehlern (1974) complement the studies of Abegglen (.1953) that apart from the heavy use of welfare programmes giver, to employees by the employers, and the management practice of paternalism employed by managers .in industries, a great deal of job commitment by workers could largely be explained by the elaborate system in vogue where by workers are assigned to jobs for whicl their aptitudes and interest are best suited. 872 of the 950 respondents felt strongly that the level of job commitment of workers is high when they are assigned to jobs which match their aptitudes and interests. On the other hand they were of the opinion that it is very rare if there is at all, to find workers with high level of job commitment when such workers are assigned to jobs which do neither match their aptitudes nor their interests. ft UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 135 CHAPTER SIX POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS One of the objectives of this research is to come up with certain findings in line with its set objectives and useful recommendations which in most cases have far reaching implications for the employees, employers, governments, administrators and policy makers who may need to address the issue of organisational/management effectiveness in industries. These implications can be categorised under the following sub-headings:- A. Knowledge of manpower systems analysis as a management tool. B. The determinants of organisational/management effectiveness. C. Career pianning/development and manpower planning. D. Effective job placement and workers* productivity. E. Securing and maintaining workers* commitment to the organisation. F. Manpower systems analysis and organisational UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 136 circumstances. G. Training needs of the worker. H. Correlates between manpower systems analysis and organisational/management effectiveness. A. KNOWLEDGE OF MANPOWER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AS A MANAGEMENT TOOL Conceptually, a manpower system represents a way of breaking down an organisation into separate functional streams (if necessary) reflecting the manpower groups or categories and the way people move in and out of these groups. Both are concerned with stocks and flows. In essence the idea of bringing together information about manpower for decision making means identifying the different groups of people within the organisation and quantifying the manpower flow among, into and out of these groups. The major finding of this study shows that the le\rel of awareness among workers and members of management of the existence of manpower systems analysis as a management tool is high particularly among managers. For example, 93% of the respondents claimed they were aware UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 137 that manpower systems analysis is a management tool whicl can be used to put the right workers in the right places at the right time so that the ability of the oraanisatior to effectively and efficiently complete those tasks that will make it achieve its overall objectives can be highly enhanced. In order words, manpower systems analysis as a management tool helps to increase the efficiency wit! which an organisation utilises its manpower. Despite this high level of awareness among managers of the existence and usefulness of manpower systems analysis as a management tool, a large percentage of then (70%) do not make use of it in their organisations. It was experienced that when the manpower systems of their organisations were asked for, the organisation charts were offered in response. But the organisation chart is a long way from the manpower systems reflecting as it does the political and organisational reality rather thar the manpower groups to be found within the organisation. It is our firm belief that manpower is a resource which needs to be managed like any other resource, against a background of change and uncertainty. As a result there is an element of risk attached to the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 138 manpower decision - making process. If that risk is to be minimised and the decisions taken today in relation to today's problems are not going to create problems in the future, then those decisions must be made on a properly informed basis. This then is our contention; that manpower systems analysis is to provide that base information on which such informed decision making can take place. We must always remember that our ability to forecast the future is extremely poor and the best we can do is to try and understand the key areas of manpower decision making facing an organisation and the factors influencing the way any such decision should be made. On the basis of all the above, we recommend that, employers of labour should engage in serious manpower systems analysis so as to get and put the right number and kinds of people at the right places at the right time. They should develop tinterest in drawing up manpower systems as an effective means of improving employers' job attitudes, behaviour and performance. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 139 B . THE DETERMINANTS OF ORGANISRTTONAL/MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS The findings revealed that the determinants of organisational/management effectiveness include various financial accounting indices and non- financial accounting measures on which .business executives and policy researchers rely solely. The financial measures include return on capital employed and earnings per share. The non-financial indices are workers* morale, workers' attitudes, workers' productivity and workers' job commitment. Both policy researchers and organisational executives rely strongly on financial measures which do not seem to capture all of the salient elements of effectiveness. In other not. to develop inaccurate normative conclusions based on inappropriate measures of effectiveness, the researcher decided to use both financial and non-financial measures of organisational/management effectiveness. Although, both the financial and non-financial indices as mentioned above had found support among organisational executives and policy researchers as good indicators of effectiveness, they are themselves UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 140 determined by other variables. We can therefore, regard these financial indices as the intervening variables determining the level of effectiveness. More than 50% of the respondents agreed that their organisations are not doing their best to raise the level of these indicators of effectiveness judging by the lukewarm attitudes of their employers towards the welfare of their workers, the high handedness of management in the handling of union affairs and the divide and rule tactics of management. Majority of the workers ranked their relationship with their colleagues as being very cordial but they were dissatisfied with the type of relationship which exists between them and their superiors. According to them, all these mi 1itate against effective job performance. This helps to lower the level of these measures of effectiveness. As a result, more than 50% of the workers were of the opinion that the level of organisational /management'ef f ectiveness in their organisation was low. They were however, of the opinion that there were rooms for improvements. We therefore, recommend that employers of labour should bear all the above reactions of workers in mind UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 141 and provide those working conditions that employees believe are necessary in securing and maintaining their commitment to the organisations which employ them. Among such conditions are:- 1. Encouraging employees to assume responsibilities by participating in decision-making and joining a tightly-knit cohesive work group. 2. Measures should be implemented to ease the communication gap between the junior staff and the management. 3. There should be a forum for internal criticisms within the company. 4. Suggestion boxes should be provided or made available as a means of making the grievances of workers known to the management. 5. Incentives such as job security, job redesign, recreational facilities, on the job training etc. should be provided to encourage workers and improve their productivity. These incentive systems should tie the destiny of the employee to that of the organisation to demonstrate in practical terms that the relationship between the two are both inter-related UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 142 and inter-twined. C . CAREER PLANNING/DEVELOPMENT AND MANPOWER PLANNING The findings revealed that career planning can be looked at from two points of view: the employee's view point and the company's viewpoint. What the employees desire apart from basic reward of salary and fringe benefits, are job satisfaction and credit for achievements. In the words of McBeath (1974): The man of high Calibre and with his sight set high is unlikely to accept any work situation in which he feels he may not grow satisfactorily., his loyalty (if that is the right word) will be held only by prospect of advancement. Whether his post is at the top, middle or lower level of the organisation will make little or no difference to his outlook. (Me Eearth. 1974). The analysis is that the employee looking at his t employers, and assessing his own future prospects, is likely to look for a number of general pointers to the Company's attitude for sign of scope to develop and for indicators of potential hazards. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 143 From the findings, justification for career pianning/development when looked at from the employers point of view lies not with the fact that vacancies will continue to be filled as they occur but for the following reasons 1. That career pianning/development helps to reduce the incidence of labour turnover and hence avoiding the expensive and time consuming business of recruitment, induction and orientation. 2. The creation of new posts, whether individually or as part of a whole new role in such a way as to insure that the new assignment is effective immediately it is launched, and not from a day or month later when the recruits finally appreciates their roles. 3. Job growth has to be • recognised and accommodated. As senior posts become more enlarged and enriched, there is need for preparation in order to ensure that jobs do not outgrow the people in them; a situation UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 144 which could otherwise result in a slowing down of management action and growth prospects. 4. The planning against sudden and unexpected loss of employees to the organisation especially when key positions are affected. In this regard, future potential replacements for all key positions should be identified, groomed and be considered as an emergency reserve for several alternative posts. About 75% of respondents were of the strong opinion that career pianning/development in the overall manpower planning should be to reduce to the minimum, if not totally eliminated, the reservoir of skills and expertise amongst the staff which are not made used of. They said that this was wasteful because the job skills which people were learning (and on which great resources had been expended) were not used in the organisation. In our own opinion however, the respondents overlooked the fact that many of these job skills were taught in preparation for promotion. The UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 145 principle behind this kind of training appears to be that it is beneficial to the organisation to have a number of potentially promotable staff whose motivation is increased by the prospect of promotion. And also that it is advisable to train men before promoting them to positions in which they will use their training. This course of action enables the employer to see how well the man performs before promoting him as well as ensuring that the organisation has a supply of successors to replace key men. However, the repercussions from such a policy if large numbers of men are thwarted in their aspirations and become disillusioned and discouraged. In the light of the above, we recommend that organisations must: 1. Assess the qualities, attributes, training and experience needed by men who must, replace existing managers and staff and fill the posts created by the expansion of the organisation. 2, See that promotion in many cases should depend on aspects of performance in the junior post UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 146 which are relevant to successful performance in the more senior post. 3. Design the salary and fringe benefits systems so as to allow competence at any level in the organisation to be highly rewarded. This kind of reward system would in many cases encourage staff in junior and intermediate posts to take interest in their work irrespective of their promotion prospects. 4. Evolve a formal complaint and grievance procedure that will serve as an effective way for workers to keep them content in their job. 5. Have an administrative policy of financial assistance to employees who may be relocated by way of transfer to new company locations for the purpose of gaining experience. 6 . Design administrative policies to deal with the conduct, discipline ‘and termination of employees. It is believed that a progressive discipline system helps in no small measure to mould round pegs for round holes. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 147 D . EFFECTIVE JOB PLACEMENTS AND WORKERS’ PRODUCTIVITY The findings revealed that one of the most important determinants of workers’ productivity is assigning workers to jobs which suit their interests, experiences, capabilities and training. It is the nature of the recruitment process to sift and select for the purpose of matching the right people with whatever openings are available, although it should be noted that recruitment practice rarely take into account the interests and desires of individuals. Rather, they are designed to enumerate the characteristics of the job and to identify human beings with appropriate skills. It is universally recognised by personnel executives that the results of their decisions in recruiting and recommending suitable employees will determine to a large extent the completion of the workers who will constitute the organisation and directly participate in the accomplishment of its corporate purpose for many years into the future. (Granovetter, 1973). UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 148 Most of the respondents (85%) indicated that recruitments in Nigeria is hardly based on merit (excellence and competence) but rather on ’’Federal Character”. ethnicity, god fatherism, parental influence, political affiliation and other fraudulent practices like bribery. In this way, job placement in Nigeria may not be as effective as it should normally have been. That may be one of the reasons responsible for low workers’ productivity in Nigeria when compared with other countries of the world. Other reasons might be the level of capital available per worker, workers’ education, and cultural factors. The contention of the respondents was that if a worker is given a job to perform which relates to his experience, age, education, training and interest, he will be highly committed to it, and hence his productivity will increase. In addition, the rate of absenteeism, labour turnover, negative job attitude, frustration etc.will be very low. The implications of the above are that UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 149 employers of labour should: 1 . Assign workers to jobs for which their aptitudes and abilities are well suited so as to reduce rate of absenteeism and increased their productivity in industry, 2. See that other considerations apart from merit (e.g. Federal character, political affiliation, ethnicity, etc.) do not significantly determine recruitment. 3. Allow workers as much as it is desirable, to use their own initiatives in the discharge of their functions to increase their morale. Reward should be given for innovation. 4. Provide adequate capital, materials, rewards systems, job security, supervision and conducive industrial relations environment in order to increase workers’ productivity. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 150 E . SECURING AND MAINTAINING WORKERS' COMMITMENT TO THE ORGANISATION The research findings had revealed that most people do not work willingly, that money is the most powerful incentive particularly for poor people. Majority of the respondents (68%) were of the opinion that work is an essential part of man’s life since it is that aspect of his life which gives him status and binds him to society. They also believed that ordinarily men and women like their work, and at most periods of history always have done so. When people do not like work, the fault lies in the psychological and social conditions of the job (which the employing organisation has to provide) rather than in the worker. In securing and maintaining workers' commitment to the organisation, the research findings also revealed that the motives for working cannot be assigned only to economic needs, for men may continue to work even UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 151 though they have no need for material goods. Even when their security and that of their children is assured, they continue to work. Obviously, this is so, as Brown (1979) also admits, because the rewards they get from work are social, such as respect and admiration from their fellow men. For all, it is believed, work activity provides fellowship and social life. In the light of the above we recommend that organisations in order to secure and maintain their workers* job commitment, the following must be noted and strive at: 1. If workers are treated as human beings, they will behave as such; if they are treated as automation or unwilling siaves, that is how they will act. Workers need to be treated as human beings and their personalities respected. 2. The worker must know specifically what his jobs is and how it is related to UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 152 other jobs; preferably there should, be an area within which he is free to use his own inventiveness and initiative. The job must be suited to the abilities of the worker (Job Satisfaction) 3. The worker must have reasonable security - a term which includes not only physical and economy security, but also the need to avoid threats to status and prestige, the need to have the backing of the group and to feel that he is unlikely to lose his job. 4. There must be a technique of communication through group which is commensurate in range and complexity with the industrial techniques of the group. There should be afnt effective communication in the work place. This can be done by not making the communication line too long so as to reduce distortion of information to the bearest minimum. Again, morale must UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 153 be good, because if it is bad and manage m e n t is not trusted, communications may not be believed. 5. Every worker should be entitled to know exactly how he stands in relation to his firm, what his progress has been, and what his prospects are. Should he become involved in a dispute, he should be entitled to have it judged fairly and be told of the decision. If he disagrees with the decision, it should be possible to take the dispute to a higher authority without risk of later victimization. 6. Men have a need to run their own lives and tackle their own jobs (within reasonable limits) as seem best to them. Although, it is impdssible to allow everybody to do his own work in his own way, it should be quite feasible to combine technical efficiency with certain amount of freedom. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 154 7. The system of rewards and punishments must not only be fair - it must be recognised as such. It must be capable of being clearly understood. F . MANPOWER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND ORGANISATIORAL CIRCUMSTANCES One of the most outstanding findings of the research is the fact that manpower systems analysis is not after all a panacea. It is not a management tool which can be applied to solve the problems of all organisations. It depends on the broad organisational divisions and we must note the fact that while no two organisations have the same manpower structure, broad similarities exist among organisations in the same industry. • In the manufacturing organisations for example, except those producing many diverse products, the manpower systems are usually hinged around manufacturing department. With UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBR RY 155 respect to organisations in the service industry, it is probably sufficient to differentiate within the branches (as they are often spread geographically) between career staff and non-career staff. For the banking industry, one of the common features of the organisations is that they are spread geographically either throughout the whole country or in a local area and are organised into branches. This tends to lead to a manpower structure easily sub-divided into two distinct groups - the head - office and the branch levels. In using manpower systems analysis in manpower management, in reality it is concerned with two sets of problems. Given some idea of the future size and shape of the organisation, information is needied about the manpower flows that will be necessary to off­ set the people from the organisation to replace people promoted within the organisation by either recruiting from outside UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 156 the organisation or by transferring from other parts within it. The second group of problems concerns the situation where the organisation wishes to know what impact of changing one of its policies with regard to manpower flows is likely to be on the size and shape of the organisation. We therefore, recommend that when an organisation has a problem that it wishes to investigate, its first task will be to define the set of stocks and flows that make up the manpower pertinent to this particular problem. The degree of detail to which the stocks and flows are drawn will be very dependent on the problem itself. For example where overall recruitment levels are concerned, it might be as simple as single box representing total manpower with one flow out representing the recruitment; but where an organisation is trying to balance the different recruitment levels of school leavers, technically qualified people from further education, and UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 157 graduates, it may find that it has to construct a very complex manpower systems in order to be able to solve that problem. G. TRAINING WEEDS OF THE WORKER Training is any activity which deliberately attempts to improve a person’s skill at a task (Hyman, 1970). Two employees of similar potential ability in the same job or grade may work at. different levels of competence, due to differences in experience or training. A training need may be described as existing any time an actual condition differs from a desired condition in the human or people aspect of organisation performance or, more specifically, when a change in present human knowledges, skills or attitudes can bring about the desired performance (Omole, 1992). The findings revealed that the purpose of industrial training is to improve the "present and future competence of the individual with a UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 158 view to improving the competence of the team in industry, thereby improving organisational performance” . Furthermore and in agreement with the view of Omole (1992), majority of the respondents (80%) were of the view that training benefits both the organisation and the staff trained. It increases the earning power and provides better career prospects of the staff while the organisation benefits by way of improved productivity and possession of a satisfied work force. The respondents were also of the view that training helps them to acquire better and relevant skills and enhances mobility particularly where the type of training received is general in nature. Training publications and other training aids are available to branches and departments 4 of the organisations. The researcher was informed that such training publications and aids were designed to provide information to help employees meet job performance standards. The training received UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 159 are either in plant or out-of-plant and the type opted for by the organisation depends on the objectives of training. Training centre handouts and other course materials are meant for participants only. Among the types of training received by workers as specified by the respondents are induction or orientation courses which are designed to give the new employee the needed information to fit him into the new system, vocational and technical education, labour education, supervisory training, management education, trainers education and scientific and professional education. The findings also revealed that apart from the benefits of training mentioned above, other benefits include increased employee satisfaction, less waste and‘spoi1 age, lower absenteeism and turnover, less supervisory burden, lower overtime costs, fewer grievances, lower personal injury rates, better communications, greater cooperation, UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 160 lower machinery maintenance costs, and greater employee versatility. We therefore, recommend that employers of labour should provide efficient and relevant manpower training and development programme (either internally or externally) capable of providing the training and education by which performance can be improved and potential abilities developed. Opportunities must be given to individual employees for seif development. H . CORRELATE BETWEEN MANPOWER SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND ORGANISATTONAL/MANAGEMENT EFFECTIVENESS The study indicates that there is high positive correlation between manpower systems analysis and organisational/ management effectiveness, Table 5.1 to 5.10 confirmed these findings. We have earlier established that the morale of workers is at its highest if the worker is the "right man for tha Job" i.e. if he is assigned to the job that suites his UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 161 ability, specialty, training, experience, age and interest. Assigning workers to appropriate jobs at the right time can be best carried out if employers of labour make use of the tool of manpower systems analysis. The fact is that, industrial progress more often than not depends on satisfied labour force. Though, there are various determinants of job satisfaction, the basic one is the provision of jobs which interest workers to them. It has also been established that if workers are assigned to jobs which they can do best, considering their levels of education, training, age, experience etc. their productivity will be high particularly if other factors like capital, materials, renumeration package and safety devices are adequately provided. Productivity levels of workers significantly affect the market rate of return on capital employed. The Coefficient of correlation between manpower UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 162 systems analysis and market rate of return on capital employed was 0.88 (Table 5.7). To make workers content with their jobs (and make productivity to increase), apart from effective job placement, employers of labour should provide a scheme for employee motivation that will enhance the values, efficiency, productivity as well as avoiding the loss of qualified manpower to the organisation through a definite policy of seniority, transfer and promotions. We also agree that productivity can be increased if in addition to the above, induction and orientation programmes (as many organisations do) are given to new recruits to introduce them to their jobs and in some cases enable them acquire skills specific to their jobs. F o r o r g a n i s a t i o n s to a '/o id g e t t i n g into crises which emanate from situations where manpower are too low or too high, there is the need for them to think strategically about manpower. There are different approaches to UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 1ST this, but the key to developing and maintaining manpower strategy is to enhance the information that is kept about man-power and the way that is related to business information. This is done with the help of manpower systems. We therefore, recommend that for e m p l o y e r s of l a b o u r to h a v e org ani sat i on al/man agemen t effectiveness , greater attention and interest should be given to manpower systems analysis, in order to get the best out of their workers in terms of productivity, job commitment, and low incidence of industrial wastage. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 164 CHAPTER SEVEN SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION SUMMARY This study examined manpower systems analysis as a correlate of organisational/management effectiveness in randomly selected industries in Nigeria with a view to finding out the relationship between the ability to survive of a business concern and the efficiency with which it utilises its human resources. The study contains the background to the study, the problem, objectives of the study significance of the study, scope of study and the operational definition of terms. The conceptual framework of the study contains a series of theories on manpower systems, manpower forecasting and organisational/management effectiveness and the steps that can be taken in drawing manpower systems. It also contains various types of manpower models. There is also a review of related literature under the following sub-headings: retaining existing manpower, labour stability index, manpower forecasting and recruitment potential, and measurement of UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 165 organisational/management effectiveness. The seven research hypothesis of the study are also stated, the research design, methodology, description of population, sample and sampling technique were discussed. In addition, it contains the description of research instruments and statistical techniques employed.- The results of the hypotheses are:- 1. There was a significant correlation between effective manpower systems analysis and high workers' morale in industry. 2. There was a significant correlation between manpower systems analysis and rate of absenteeism in industry. 3. There was a significant relationship between career development and workers' attitudes to their organisations. 4. There was a significant correlation between effective job placement and workers' productivity. 5. Manpower systems analysis significantly affects the market rate of return on capital assets. 6. There was a significant difference between the UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 166 earnings per share resulting from fulfillment of workers’ aspiration with respect to promotions and their non-fulfillment on entering the organisations. 7. There was a significant correlation betweer? matching workers’ aptitudes and interest to their jobs and workers’ job commitment. The study shows that the level of awareness among workers and members of management of the existence of manpower systems analysis as a management tool is high particularly among managers, but despite this high level of awareness among managers, a large percentage of them do not make use of it in their organisations. It is suggested that employers of labour should develop interest in drawing up manpower systems as an effective means of minimizing the risk attached to the manpower decision - making process against the background of change and uncertainty that normally occurs in the real world. Further findings show that the determinants of organisational/management effectiveness include both financial accounting and non/financial indices such as UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 167 ROI, ROE, ROA, RCE and EPS while the non-financial indices include workers’ morale, workers' attitudes, workers productivity and workers' job commitment. The implication is that employers of labour should reply on both groups of indices by providing those working conditions that employees believe are necessary in securing and maintaining their commitment to the organisations which employ them. In order to increase the morale and therefore productivity of workers, organisations should involve themselves in career pianning/development W il I C h O 1' f S r S the individual employee, the opportunity to predict his career and mode of his movement along the hierarchy. There should be a performance appraisal scheme which identifies the strengths and needs of employees in relations to their current jobs and career aspirations. We also agree that there should be a manpower training and development programme capable of providing the needed training and education by which potentials can be developed and performance improved. It was also discovered that organisations must maintain right recruitment source and regularly review UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 168 the effectiveness of such contact. Bad selection and placement usually result in misery, frustration and low morale among the workers thus recruited. Bad selection is one of the causes of high labour turnover which can earn an organisation the reputation of not being able to retain employees. If this becomes known in the locality, potential workers of good quality may avoid the firm and it may succeed in attracting only those who are notoriously unstable. As a result, an employer's ability to retain his manpower could be highly enhanced if there are effective and efficient recruitment selection and placement procedures. CONCLUSION This study shows that a significant correlation exists between manpower systems • analysis and organisational/management effectiveness. In this study it has been demonstrated that manpower systems analysis as a management tool can be particularly important in helping an organisation solve its manpower problems when UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 169 the organisation's manpower level is inconsistent with its business needs. In general, although the study of Manpower' in organisations is much more recent, and there has not yet been time to develop enough powerful indicators of its problems, an increasing amount of space is now being giving to manpower in Companys' annual reports. But it occupies such a small percentage compared to the degree of attention and comments on the financial health of companies. A cynic would remark that the current interest in manpower, and the increase in its report is only a temporary phenomenon fuelled by the rapid rising cost of manpower and the fact that it is one resource by which an organisation can reduce its costs, but certainly this is not true. Inevitably, an increasing attention will continue to be given to Manpower planning and development by organisations, as more indicators of i‘ts problems continue to emerge. For now it would appear that the Manpower systems are powerful indicators of potential Manpower problems which nearly all organisations are bound to face. UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 170 Existing literature does not show that much work has been done on manpower systems in Nigeria although in other Countries particularly those of Western Europe, broad manpower systems have been drawn especially for commercial organisations. Regardless of the current pressures caused by the recession, there is a developing and ongoing need to manage manpower better. It is no longer possible to achieve this objective by reacting to events, recruiting to replace high wastage, making employees redundant when there is a need to reduce costs. Modern economic situations have brought increasing and convergent pressures on organisations to adopt a longer term approach to manpower management. Organisations have become more complex requiring a wider range of specialist skills in their employees. This means more types of employees to be recruited and the greater the degree of difficulty in replacing such employees when they leave. The rapidly changing technology of the last twenty years makes organisations to inevitably find themselves in situations where they have skills in abundance which are no longer necessary, and yet, at the same time, are short UNIVERSITY OF IBADAN LIBRARY 171 of the much needed new experience. The pressure on personnel and manpower specialists is high, while the penalties for failure to provide and maintain appropriate policies to provide and maintain appropriate policies are serious for the organisation and for the individual. This requires the employers of labour to avail themselves of the opportunities which manpower systems analysis as a management tool offers in a m e l i o r a t i n g s u c h p r o b l e m s so t h a t organisational/management effectiveness can be improved upon and sustained. SUGGESTED TOPICS FOR FURTHER STUDIES 1. Career and Succession Planning as a Correlate of Management Effectiveness: The Nigerian Experience. 2. 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