Rosellini, A. J.Liu, H.Petukhova, M. V.Sampson, N. A.Aguilar-Gaxiolam, S.Alonso, J.Borges, G.Bruffaerts, R.Bromet, E. J.de Girolamo, G.de Jonge, P.Fayyad, J.Florescu, S.Gureje, O.Haro, J. M.Hinkov, H.Karam, E. G.Kawakami, N.Koenen, K. C.Lee, S.Lépine, J. P.Levinson, D.Navarro-Mateu, F.Oladeji, B. D.O'Neill, S.Pennell, B. E.Piazza, M.Posada-Villa, J.Scott, K. M.Stein, D. J.Torres, Y.Viana, M. C.Zaslavsky, A. M.Kessler, R. C.2026-04-0120181469-8978ui_art_rosellini_recovery_2018Psychological Medicine 48(3), pp. 437-450https://repository.ui.edu.ng/handle/123456789/13565Background. Research on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) course finds a substantial proportion of cases remit within 6 months, a majority within 2 years, and a substantial minority persists for many years. Results are inconsistent about pre-trauma predictors. Methods. The WHO World Mental Health surveys assessed lifetime DSM-IV PTSD presence-course after one randomly selected trauma, allowing retrospective estimates of PTSD duration. Prior traumas, childhood adversities (CAs), and other lifetime DSM-IV mental disorders were examined as predictors using discrete-time person-month survival analysis among the 1575 respondents with lifetime PTSD. Results. 20%, 27%, and 50% of cases recovered within 3, 6, and 24 months and 77% within 10 years (the longest duration allowing stable estimates). Time-related recall bias was found largely for recoveries after 24 months. Recovery was weakly related to most trauma types other than very low [odds-ratio (OR) 0.2–0.3] early-recovery (within 24 months) associated with purposefully injuring/torturing/killing and witnessing atrocities and very low later-recovery (25+ months) associated with being kidnapped. The significant ORs for prior traumas, CAs, and mental disorders were generally inconsistent between early- and later-recovery models. Cross-validated versions of final models nonetheless discriminated significantly between the 50% of respondents with highest and lowest predicted probabilities of both early-recovery (66–55% v. 43%) and later-recovery (75–68% v. 39%). Conclusions. We found PTSD recovery trajectories similar to those in previous studies. The weak associations of pre-trauma factors with recovery, also consistent with previous studies, presumably are due to stronger influences of post-trauma factors.enArticle