Browsing by Author "Orekoya, S. O."

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Econometric Analysis of the Deficit Financing Options-Growth Inclusiveness Nexus in India and Nigeria
(Springer Nature, 2020) Chigbo, M.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Orekoya, S. O.
The crux of the study was to ascertain whether (and to what extent) the different defi cit financing options impacted inclusive growth in India and Nigeria. The paper con ducted an empirical analysis using data covering the period from 1989 to 2018 using the ARDL model. Some interesting results were obtained. First, foreign aid positively impacted inclusive growth in both short and long run for Nigeria. Contrarily, the results for India presented an inverse relationship between aid and inclusive growth with no statistical significance in the short and long run. Second, the impact of borrowing on inclusive growth was significant and negative for short run and long run in India. In the Nigerian case, the findings highlighted a positive and significant effect of borrowing on inclusive growth for both time horizons. Third, on the issue of human capital investments, the government expenditure on education effect on growth inclusiveness was found to be positive and negative in the short and long run, respectively, for India. On the other hand, government expenditure on health was negative in the short run and positive in the long run in Nigeria. Thus, there are a number of relatable policy recommendations viz: (i) Nigeria needs to utilize its borrowing options more effectively by undertaking relevant infrastructural and human capital investments; (ii) Instead of reliance on foreign aid for growth, Nigeria could join the liquidity race by attracting more diaspora remittances like its comparator India; (iii) The government of India should devote even more resources to capital expenditure to drive long-term investments and ensure that a greater number of citizens benefit from the process.
Impact of Tourism Development on Inclusive Growth: A Panel Autoregression Analysis for African Economies
(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2023) Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.; Orekoya, S. O.; Adekunle, W.
The persistent debate among policy makers and academics around combating the high rates of poverty and income inequality can be further illuminated by understanding how tourism con tributes to inclusive growth, especially in developing economies. Tourism sector can be regarded as one of the key contributors to inclusive growth and where it has the capacity to generate prospects for productive employment. The goal of this article is thus to investigate the link between inclusive growth and tourism in the African context. To do this, we utilized a recent panel vector autoregression (pVAR) and data for 45 African countries spanning the period 1995 to 2019. Thus, by the error variance decomposition and impulse response functions, our results showed a weak positive effect of international tourism arrivals and the composite tourism indicator on inclusive growth, while tourism receipts and tourism expenditure insignificantly decreases inclusive growth in the sampled African economies. Our result is further supported by the panel system generalized method of moments (GMM). We provide some policy implications from our findings.
Non-Linear Relation Between External Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Does the Investment Channel Matter?
(Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran., 2021) Adekunle, W.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Orekoya, S. O.
Large external debt stock has been identified as one of the most important factors which have restricted the development of many poor countries. The consensus in the literature remains that external debt promotes growth to the extent that a country does not exceed its debt carrying capacity. Otherwise, additional debt accumulation would serve as a tax on future investment returns capable of creating disincentive to invest in the highly indebted countries. In the light of these arguments, this study investigates the possible role of domestic investment in the non-linear relation between external debt and economic growth in Nigeria over the period from 1981 to 2015. Based on the results of threshold regression analysis employed in this study, the overall findings showed that the impact of external debt on economic growth is sensitive to both measures of external debt used, and whether or not the role of domestic investment is accounted for. Specifically, this study confirmed the existence of the debt Laffer curve associated with the debt overhang theory arising from excessive external debt accumulation. Similarly, empirical support was obtained for the crowding-out effect of excessive external debt servicing. Also, accounting for the role of domestic investment in the non-linear relation between external debt and economic growth reduces the optimal debt carrying capacity of the country. It is therefore suggested that the Nigerian government internalizes a maximum ceiling of 6.81% as the share of external debt stock in gross national income (GNI) so as to enjoy the resulting growth benefits. External debt financing sources that are free of interest charge could also be explored so as to circumvent the burden imposed by excessive external debt servicing.