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Item The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries(BioMed Central, 2021) Adebowale, A. S.; Fagbamigbe, A. F.; Akinyemi, J. O.; Obisesan, O. K.; Awosanya, E. J.; Afolabi, R. F.; Alarape, S. A.; Obabiyi, S. O.Background: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. Methods: Data was extracted from the World Bank’s website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). Results: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2 =0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2 =0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal. Conclusions: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.Item Situation assessment and natural dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, 31 May 2020(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Adebowale, S.; Fagbamigbe, A. F.; Akinyemi, J. O.; Obisesan, K. O.; Awosanya, E. J.; Afolabi, R. F.; Alarape, S. A.; Obabiyi, S. O.Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains a global public health issue due to its high transmission and case fatality rate. There is apprehension on how to curb the spread and mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic, but timely and reliable daily confirmed cases’ estimates are pertinent to the pandemic’s containment. This study therefore conducted a situation assessment and applied simple predictive models to explore COVID-19 progression in Nigeria as at 31 May 2020. Methods: Data used for this study were extracted from the websites of the European Centre for Disease Control (World Bank data) and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. Besides descriptive statistics, four predictive models were fitted to investigate the pandemic natural dynamics. Results: The case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 2.8%. A higher number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was reported daily after the relaxation of lockdown than before and during lockdown. Of the 36 states in Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory, 35 have been affected with COVID-19. Most active cases were in Lagos (n = 4064; 59.2%), followed by Kano (n = 669; 9.2%). The percentage of COVID-19 recovery in Nigeria (29.5%) was lower compared to South Africa (50.3%), but higher compared to Kenya (24.1%). The cubic polynomial model had the best fit. The projected value for COVID-19 cumulative cases for 30 June 2020 in Nigeria was 27,993 (95% C.I: 27,001–28,986). Conclusion: The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are increasing in Nigeria. Increasing testing capacity for the disease may further reveal more confirmed cases. As observed in this study, the cubic polynomial model currently offers a better prediction of the future COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.Item Dynamics of poverty-related dissimilarities in fertility in Nigeria: 2003-2018(Elsevier B.V, 2020) Adebowale, A. S.; Fagbamigbe, A. F.; Akinyemi, J. O.; Olowolafe, T.; Onwusaka, O.; Adewole, D.; Sadikue, S.; Palamuleni, M.Nigeria is one of the high fertility countries worldwide. Little is known about the differences in fertility experience of women in poor and rich households in Nigeria. We ex amined the relationship between household wealth and fertility in Nigeria with focus on women from poor and rich households.This national representative and cross-sectional design study involved analysis of fourrounds (2003, 2008, 2013, 2018) of Nigeria Demographic Health and Survey data . Theoutcome variable was fertility measured from the full birth history information reported by women of reproductive age. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, direct and Gompertz-relational demographic methods, logistic regression and negative binomial re gression models (α=0.05). Across the survey years, the mean number of children ever born (CEB), the total fer tility rate and the percentage of women who had high fertility were consistently higher among the women from poor households than those from the rich households. From 2003 to 2018, declining pattern (slope = -0.87) in percentage of high fertility women was observed among rich unlike the poor women (slope = +0.31) where a slight increase was observed. In 2018 as for other survey rounds, about 18.7% and 38.4% of rich and poor women had high fertility (CEB≥5) respectively. The likelihood of high fertility (CEB≥5) was 2.74 (C.I=2.60-2.89, p<0.001) times higher among poor women than the rich women. In 2018,the fertility incidence risk ratio was about 8.0% higher among the women from the poo rhouseholds than their counterparts from the rich households and this pattern was observed when some other factors were included in the regression model across the survey years (2003-2018).