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Author: search.filters.author.Ajaelu, C. S.

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    Prediction of Road Traffic Accidents Outcomes on Selected Routes in Ibadan Environs Using Time-Series Models
    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria, 2024-06) Akintayo, F. O.; Ajaelu, C. S.; Komolafe, O.
    Road traffic accidents has emerged as a major public concern due to the associated burdens of injuries, loss of lives and properties. The objective of this paper is to use time-series technique applying autoregressive integrated moving average and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving over models to predict accidents outcomes within and around Ibadan metropolis for appropriate mitigation measures. Data on daily recorded cases of road traffic accidents on several specified routes between 2019 and 2021 were collected from the Federal Road Safety Corps, Ibadan Zonal Office. The RTAs outcomes were grouped into three: injuries, fatalities and vehicle occupants. The training set consisted of data from December 2019 to June 2021, whereas the testing set was composed of data from July 2021 to December 2021. During the study, 427 fatalities and 2,245 injuries were caused by traffic accidents involving a total of 5,577 vehicle occupants. By the end of 2025, the study projected a 172% rise in the death rate and a 38% increase in the number of vehicle occupants involved in RTAs in the study area, and approximately 32% of those occupants suffering injuries. There was no discernible seasonal pattern in the trends of injury and fatality rates. There is an immediate need for a road traffic accident prevention and evaluation program in the study region given the projected number of injuries and fatalities
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    Seasonal variations in pm2g air pollutants and impact on preterm birth rate in Kampala: A Retrospective Cohort
    (Nigerian Society of Engineers Ibadan (Premier) Branch, 2020) Ajaelu, C. S.; William, w.; Akintayo, F.O.; Coker, A. O.
    There is a growing body of evidence linking air pollution to negative births outcomes, but few studies have explored the relationship of air pollution on negative births outcomes such as preterm birth in Africa. Identifying the association between PM2 5 and preterm births will be a good starting point for intervention and policy changes on air pollution reduction methods. The study aimed to determine the association between seasonal variation in PM25 and preterm births in Kampala Uganda. Retrospective cohort study was carried out by collecting birth outcomes data from District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) database, with the authority of Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA). PM2.5 data were collected from US Embassy monitoring station from January 2018 to December 2019. Association between seasonal variation in PM2.5 and preterm births were found using STATA 13.0 version. This study showed a seasonal trend in PM2.5 level which was very high between the range of 56-72 ugym1 in the two dry seasons of the year 2018 and 2019. It was found lower in both wet seasons of the year 2018 and 2019 within the range of 40-52 pg/m3. The regression analysis showed that there is a strong association between each 10 unit increase in PM2.5 and preterm births in second dry season of 2018 and the first dry season of 2019 (p<0.000). The results of this study support with evidence the relationship between PM2.5 air pollutant and preterm births, especially in dry seasons