Economics
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Item An Empirical Re-examination of Exchange Rate-Trade Balance Nexus in Nigeria(African Journal Online (AJOL), 2013) Oyinlola, M. A.; Omisakin, O. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.The Nigerian exchange rate-trade balance nexus was re-examined. The long run relationship between these variables was explored using the Gregory-Hansen cointegration approach on a data sample between 1980:Q1 and 2010:Q4. Prior to this, three efficient integration tests that can overcome potentially severe finite sample power and size problems suffered by the standard methods were tactfully pursued for robustness. The short run impact analysis was done in the error correction framework. The analyses showed that exchange rate depreciation led to trade balance deterioration in both the short run and the long run. Thus, this study could not find support for J-curve in Nigeria. Some suggestions on the way forward were put forth.Item Responsiveness of Trade Flows to Changes in Exchange rate and Relative prices: Evidence from Nigeria(Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology, 2010) Oyinlola, M. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Omisakin, O.This paper examines the long-run and short-run impacts of exchange rate and price changes on trade flows in Nigeria using exports and imports functions. The bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied on a quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2007Q4. The results indicate that in both the short-run and long-run Nigeria’s trade flows are chiefly influenced by income- both domestic and foreign-, relative prices, nominal effective exchange rates and the stock of external reserves. The results also reveal that in the long-run, devaluation is more effective than relative prices in altering imports demand at both baseline and augmented models. The reverse is, however, the case for exports demand. Furthermore, the sum of the estimated price elasticities of export and import demand in Nigeria exceeds unity indicating that the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition holds thus implying that a devalued naira might hold considerable promise as the panacea to rising trade deficits.Item Responsiveness of Trade Flows to Changes in Exchange rate and Relative prices: Evidence from Nigeria(Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology, 2010) Oyinlola, M. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Omisakin, O."This paper examines the long-run and short-run impacts of exchange rate and price changes on trade flows in Nigeria using exports and imports functions. The bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration is applied on a quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2007Q4. The results indicate that in both the short-run and long-run Nigeria’s trade flows are chiefly influenced by income- both domestic and foreign-, relative prices, nominal effective exchange rates and the stock of external reserves. The results also reveal that in the long-run, devaluation is more effective than relative prices in altering imports demand at both baseline and augmented models. The reverse is, however, the case for exports demand. Furthermore, the sum of the estimated price elasticities of export and import demand in Nigeria exceeds unity indicating that the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition holds thus implying that a devalued naira might hold considerable promise as the panacea to rising trade deficits."