Scholarly works in Economics

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An Econometric Analysis of Residential Fuel Choice in Nigeria: Application of Access Framework
(Inderscience Publishers, 2023) Ogunro, T.; Alaba, O.; Adeniyi, O. A.
Despite global calls for a transition to modern energy, Nigerian households continue to face obstacles in accessing clean cooking energy. This paper examines the barriers to household fuel choice in rural and urban areas of Ogun Sate, Nigeria, employing an access framework. Through a cross-sectional study involving 597 households, we examined the factors associated with the selection of household cooking fuel and the access challenges. The framework conceptualises fuel choice as a function of three key access dimensions: affordability, availability, and acceptability, using multinomial logit regression. The findings showed that firewood and kerosene remain Nigeria’s dominant household fuel sources. The results highlight that fuel choice is influenced not only by affordability factors but also by factors related to availability and acceptability. Consequently, the study recommends a comprehensive approach beyond affordability, to ensure modern energy sources are culturally acceptable while establishing secure supply chains towards a more environmentally sustainable energy future.
An Empirical Re-examination of Exchange Rate-Trade Balance Nexus in Nigeria
(African Journal Online (AJOL), 2013) Oyinlola, M. A.; Omisakin, O. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.
The Nigerian exchange rate-trade balance nexus was re-examined. The long run relationship between these variables was explored using the Gregory-Hansen cointegration approach on a data sample between 1980:Q1 and 2010:Q4. Prior to this, three efficient integration tests that can overcome potentially severe finite sample power and size problems suffered by the standard methods were tactfully pursued for robustness. The short run impact analysis was done in the error correction framework. The analyses showed that exchange rate depreciation led to trade balance deterioration in both the short run and the long run. Thus, this study could not find support for J-curve in Nigeria. Some suggestions on the way forward were put forth.
An Empirical Re-examination of Exchange Rate-Trade Balance Nexus in Nigeria
(African Journal Online (AJOL), 2013) Oyinlola, M. A.; Omisakin, O.; Adeniyi, O. A.
The Nigerian exchange rate-trade balance nexus was re-examined. The long run relationship between these variables was explored using the Gregory-Hansen cointegration approach on a data sample between 1980:Q1 and 2010:Q4. Prior to this, three efficient integration tests that can overcome potentially severe finite sample power and size problems suffered by the standard methods were tactfully pursued for robustness. The short run impact analysis was done in the error correction framework. The analyses showed that exchange rate depreciation led to trade balance deterioration in both the short run and the long run. Thus, this study could not find support for J-curve in Nigeria. Some suggestions on the way forward were put forth.
Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Nigeria
(West African Monetary Institute, 2013) Adeniyi, O. A.; Ekor. E.; Saka, J.
The study examines the impact of central bank communication on monetary policy in Nigeria by applying the standard deviation measure of volatility and the vector autoregressive approach. The findings show that inflation and markets volatilities reduced during the period of improved central bank communication. The money market responded positively to central bank communication and reverted faster to equilibrium compared with the stock market which responded negatively and reverted slower to equilibrium. Central bank communication is also able to explain some variation in the money and stock markets. The policy implications of the findings include the need for the Central Bank of Nigeria to continue to improve on its communications strategy as this has helped reduce inflation and markets volatility. In addition, the interest rate channel of the transmission mechanism should be accorder greater priority compared to the asset channel as the money market reverted faster to equilibrium compared to the stock market in the event of a shock.
COVID-19 Pandemic and Sectoral Stock Performance in Nigeria: A Quantile Regression Approach
(Allied Business Academies, 2021) Kumeka, T.; Raifu, I. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.
This study examines the effects of COVID-19 pandemic (cases and deaths) and government policy responses on the sectoral stock returns in Nigerian using daily data from January 2nd, 2020 to November 24th, 2020. The stock returns of five sectors are considered which include consumer goods, banking, oil and gas, food/beverages and insurance. Employing OLS and quantile regression methods, our results establish that COVID-19 cases, deaths, and government stringency, and containment and health policy have strong impacts on sectoral stock returns. However, the impact appears to be stronger from COVID-19 confirmed cases, and containment and health policy than from its deaths and government stringency policy. Structure of dependence is predominantly stronger in the bearish markets and is significantly negative at the extreme lower and intermediate quantiles. COVID-19 cases and stringency and containment and health policies move in opposite direction to these sectors’ stock returns. As Coronavirus cases surge, stock prices decline.
Dependence Between Foreign Trade Performance and Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel ARDL Approach
(Croatian Statistical Association (CSA), 2023) Oyinlola, M.A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.
The purpose of this study is to analyse the influence of exchange rate shocks on foreign trade (exports and imports) of fifteen economies within the ECOWAS sub region. To accomplish the goal of this paper, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure was employed to investigate the impact volatility in the exchange rate market has on foreign trade in both long- and short-term with data between 1980 and 2020. To compute volatility, it relied on the GARCH (1, 1) model which predicted the conditional variances as proxy for volatility. Our empirical results are distinguished into export model and import model, and reveal that volatility in exchange rate influence foreign trade performance (exports and imports) negatively in the short run, though statistically insignificant. The impact however becomes positive in the long run, and statistically significant for the two models. These results signpost that while the volatilities in foreign exchange market appear to deteriorate the international trade of these economies in the short-term, it substantially and significantly causes its improvement in the long-term. Hence, our results validate the J curve effect in the case of these ECOWAS economies. Policy implication from the findings suggests that to develop a robust international trade and ultimate economic growth, it is recommended that policymakers of these economies maintain a short-term stability in their foreign currency markets by way of adopting some intervention measures.
Dimensions of Electronic Fraud and Governance of Trust in Nigeria’s Cashless Ecosystem
(SAGE Publications, 2020) Tade, O.; Adeniyi, O. A.
A negative outcome of the nascent cashless policy in Nigeria has been persistent electronic banking fraud (e-fraud). Fraud occurrence in any financial space indicates insecurity and loopholes being exploited by fraudsters. This underscores the importance of trust governance in electronic banking and its centrality in a transiting cashless economy like Nigeria. Against this background, we investigated e-banking fraud and the role trust governance plays in both the adoption and refusal to migrate and use electronic banking in Nigeria. Using qualitative methods (in-depth and key informant interviews) of data collection, 30 participants were purposively selected and, in some instances, reached through the snowball and referral methods. Findings showed internal, external, and collaborative dimensions of e-fraud. Experiences of fraud reportedly affected adoption and migration of bank customers to e-banking platforms. Although weak governance mechanism was reported, banks nonetheless are embracing security mechanisms such as sending SCAM alert messages to customers, while shaming and sack of compromised staff were employed as within-bank measures to secure the confidence of customers in the evolving financial ecosystem.
Dimensions of Electronic Fraud and Governance of Trust in Nigeria’s Cashless Ecosystem
(SAGE Publications, 2020) Tade, O.; Adeniyi, O. A.
A negative outcome of the nascent cashless policy in Nigeria has been persistent electronic banking fraud (e-fraud). Fraud occurrence in any financial space indicates insecurity and loopholes being exploited by fraudsters. This underscores the importance of trust governance in electronic banking and its centrality in a transiting cashless economy like Nigeria. Against this background, we investigated e-banking fraud and the role trust governance plays in both the adoption and refusal to migrate and use electronic banking in Nigeria. Using qualitative methods (in-depth and key informant interviews) of data collection, 30 participants were purposively selected and, in some instances, reached through the snowball and referral methods. Findings showed internal, external, and collaborative dimensions of e-fraud. Experiences of fraud reportedly affected adoption and migration of bank customers to e-banking platforms. Although weak governance mechanism was reported, banks nonetheless are embracing security mechanisms such as sending SCAM alert messages to customers, while shaming and sack of compromised staff were employed as within-bank measures to secure the confidence of customers in the evolving financial ecosystem.
Does Governance Impact on the Foreign Direct Investment-Growth Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa?
(Economics Faculty Zagreb, 2014) Ajide, K.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Raheem, I. D.
The central question this paper sought to tackle was “does the quality of institutions matter for the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth?” Using macroeconomic data on 27 Sub Saharan African (SSA) economies and six distinct measures of governance the findings showed that control of corruption, political stability and government effectiveness matter for the influence of FDI on economic growth in SSA. This key finding was found to be robust even in models where these three governance indicators were interacted with FDI. Furthermore, the results from threshold-type sample splitting showed that in the sample containing countries with a higher level of governance, the positive impact of FDI on growth has larger magnitude vis-à-vis the comparator group with poorer governance indicators. This significant threshold effects remained robust across specifications
Does Tourism Development Contribute to Human Development in Africa?
(Institute for Tourism (Zagreb, Croatia), 2017) Folarin, O.; Oladipupo, E.; Ajogbeje, K.; Adeniyi, O. A.
The literature has been awash with alternative explanations for structural and economic transformation in more recent years. Growth drivers are myriad in empirical depictions and enquiries into deeper causal relationships have preoccupied development discourse. Particularly, the contributory role of tourism development in job creation, thereby increasing the standard of living, national output, foreign exchange earnings and revenue to the government through taxation have been brought into sharper view by extant studies. To this end, the developmental gains arising from expansion of activities in the tourism industry has equally blossomed. This is particularly the case in Africa owing on one hand to the high influx of tourists into the continent as well as the relative size of tourism receipts to gross domestic product (GDP) for key continental destinations on the other hand. Hence, the central question is how has tourism development influenced overall economic development in the African context? To pursue this train of inquisition, this study examined the effect of tourism development on human capital development in Africa. Precisely, the study uncovered the role of tourism in influencing human capital development using data on a panel of twenty-five (25) African countries covering the period from 1998 to 2014. System General Moment Method (GMM) estimation techniques was deployed in the study in a requisite bid to account for endogeneity and unlike previous work human capital is decomposed into education and health to facilitate clearer understanding on the specificity of the impacts of tourism development in the economy. The study findings showed that tourism development vis-à-vis tourist arrival and tourism receipt had positive and significant effect on human capital development in Africa. This result is found to be robust to the choice of human capital indicator albeit with certain variations contingent on model specification. Thus, appropriate policies that will make the continent's tourist sites attractive to tourists need to be implemented.
Domestic Resource Mobilization and Human Capital Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
(University of National and World Economy (UNWE), 2021) Adeniyi, O. A.; Oyinlola, M. A.; Adedeji A.
This study investigates the nexus between domestic resource mobilization using aggregated and disaggregated taxes, and human capital accumulation as measured❘ by the index of human capital and total factor productivity. The study explores panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag. We further explore the linear and nonlinear effects of taxes on human capital accumulation. The results from the scatterplots show that taxes at aggregate and disaggregated levels positively correlated with the two measures of human capital. On the linear analysis, the impact of aggregated and disaggregated taxes is largely negative under the index of human capital but largely positive under the second measure in the short-run. However, the long-run results indicate that aggregate and disaggregated taxes significantly amplify human capital accumulation. On nonlinearity, there is no presence of human capital laffer curve (HCLC) in the short-run under the two measures of human capital. However, there is presence of HCLC in the long-run. The net effects results show that some taxes (such as indirect taxes, taxes on goods and services) are distortionary in improving the level of human capital development while some taxes (such as total tax, direct tax, taxes on income, profit, and gains) can distort human capital development in the SSA region.
Econometric Analysis of the Deficit Financing Options-Growth Inclusiveness Nexus in India and Nigeria
(Springer Nature, 2020) Chigbo, M.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Orekoya, S. O.
The crux of the study was to ascertain whether (and to what extent) the different defi cit financing options impacted inclusive growth in India and Nigeria. The paper con ducted an empirical analysis using data covering the period from 1989 to 2018 using the ARDL model. Some interesting results were obtained. First, foreign aid positively impacted inclusive growth in both short and long run for Nigeria. Contrarily, the results for India presented an inverse relationship between aid and inclusive growth with no statistical significance in the short and long run. Second, the impact of borrowing on inclusive growth was significant and negative for short run and long run in India. In the Nigerian case, the findings highlighted a positive and significant effect of borrowing on inclusive growth for both time horizons. Third, on the issue of human capital investments, the government expenditure on education effect on growth inclusiveness was found to be positive and negative in the short and long run, respectively, for India. On the other hand, government expenditure on health was negative in the short run and positive in the long run in Nigeria. Thus, there are a number of relatable policy recommendations viz: (i) Nigeria needs to utilize its borrowing options more effectively by undertaking relevant infrastructural and human capital investments; (ii) Instead of reliance on foreign aid for growth, Nigeria could join the liquidity race by attracting more diaspora remittances like its comparator India; (iii) The government of India should devote even more resources to capital expenditure to drive long-term investments and ensure that a greater number of citizens benefit from the process.
Education and Inclusive Growth in West Africa
(Emerald Publishing, 2021) Adeniyi, O. A.; Ajayi, P. I.; Adedeji, A.
Purpose - Many West African countries face the challenge of growth inclusiveness. The region is also facing challenges of equipping its teeming population with high-quality skills despite many reforms and initiatives introduced in the past. This study, thus, identifies education as a crucial contributory factor to growth inclusiveness in the region. It, therefore, examined the role of education in growth inclusiveness in West Africa between 1990 and 2017. Design/methodology/approach - The study utilised different proxies to capture quantity and quality dimensions of education. The unit root and ARDL ""Bounds"" tests were employed at a preliminary stage. Based on the preliminary tests, the study explored autoregressive distributed lags modelling technique to capture the short-run and long-run dynamic effects. Findings - The empirical results reveal a positive impact of school enrolment measures in most of the countries in both short-run and long-run. Education quality measure exerts positive impact and significant in few countries under consideration. Practical implications - These countries should give adequate attention to quality when designing education policy to foster their inclusive growth. Originality/value - This study highlights the critical role of education in the inclusive growth pursuit. Education quantity is important to growth inclusiveness but the quality of education is more fundamental. The quality of education possessed determine to a large extent, what individual can contribute to the productive activities within the economy and accessibility to benefits from economic prosperity."
Effect of Fragility on Growth and Poverty in Nigeria: A Disaggregate State-Level Analysis
(Western Illinois University and Tennessee State University College of Business, 2023) Adedeji, A.; Adeniyi, O. A.
Why some nations are wealthier than others are one of the most contentious and enigmatic questions in international development economics. This has necessitated plausible explanations for the reasons behind Africa's poor development record over the past 50 years. Among other factors, fragility arising from different conflicts in African countries has been ranked as a key factor that undermines the development of the continent. Nigeria found itself in this set due to growing conflicts in different parts of the country. Consequently, fragility worsened the country's development due to the huge associated economic and social costs. More so, conflict-affected countries are characterized by the worst socio-economic outcomes. Hence, existing studies have been preoccupied with the understanding of the relationship between fragility and economic growth as well as fragility and poverty. To provide evidence in the context of Nigeria, this paper, therefore, empirically investigated the fragility-growth nexus, as well as the fragility-poverty nexus, in a sample of 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in Nigeria. We further considered the macroeconomic and socio- political relationships in fragile and non-fragile states of Nigeria. Using data covering the period between 2011 and 2015, both the static approach (Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effect, and Random Effect) and the dynamic approach (Difference and System Generalized Method of Moments) were explored to provide answers to some key questions in the study. The results showed that the neoclassical and socio-political approaches complement each other. Specifically, fragility significantly weakened economic growth and further worsened poverty levels among the states. This suggests that conflict-related fragility creates an unstable environment that discourages economic activities and aggravates hunger among the population. More so, the results indicated that only debt enhances economic growth while income reduces poverty in both fragile and non-fragile states. Hence, conflict resolution is crucial to addressing conflicts in different parts of the country. Also, the country needs to explore various strategies (security infrastructure, and human capital) to overcome fragility, enhance economic growth, and combat poverty.
Effects of COVID-19 on Trade, Industrialisation and Globalisation in Africa.
(Centre for Sustainable Development, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, 2021) Shinyekwa, I. M. B.; Kumeka, T.; Adedeji, A.; Adeniyi, O. A.
This paper examined the potential effects of the global Corona Virus (COVID-19) pandemic on the paths of international trade, industrial development and economic globalization on the African continent. Deploying a purely descriptive analytical approach, a number of submissions are made. One, the pandemic significantly disrupted African trade -on both import and export sides - particularly owing to the closures of ports and other external trade infrastructure in China which is the largest trading partner for most African countries. Two, and somewhat related to the first point, the manufacturing sector that is meant to propel industrialization on the continent was also hard hit especially due to the huge shock to the supply chains of intermediate inputs. Third, since globalizations -on both the economic and cultural fronts- has led to greater interconnectedness, spillovers of the negative shock from China to other parts of the world including Africa is more palpable than otherwise. On the basis of the foregoing, some propositions on the key efforts that should be pursued and intensified are highlighted.
Empirical Analysis of the Tourism-Terrorism Nexus: The Nigerian Experience
(Interdepartmental Program of Postgraduate Studies, 2017) Ajogbeje, K.; Folarin, O.; Oladipupo, E.; Adeniyi, O. A.
This paper examined the relationship among tourism, terrorism and broad economic aggregates. We made use of the impulse response and variance decomposition of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) on the Nigerian economy from 1995Q1 to 2012Q4. Besides the appropriate unit root and cointegration properties of the variables, the result revealed, that terrorism had negative effects on other variables of the study, especially tourism. Also, shocks in other variables are majorly caused by terrorism. The study also revealed that tourism responds positively to FDI, but its response to GDP and FDI are mixed overtime. Therefore, growth-promoting and other complimentary policies that will engender aggregate welfare improvement need to be pursued to ensure that the tourism sector sidestep the adverse consequences of terrorism.
Empirical Exposition of Monetary Policy under Fixed and Managed Float Exchange Rate Regime: Any Lesson for Nigeria
(Central bank of Nigeria, 2014) Egwaikhide, F. O.; Oyinlola, M. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Olanipekun, D. B.
This paper empirically investigated the relationship between monetary aggregates and the exchange rate under alternative exchange rate regimes in Nigeria. Using data spanning 1961 to 2013 to estimate vector auto-regressive (VAR) models, a number of findings ensued. One, the impulse response functions (IRFS) showed that monetary aggregates were responsive to exchange rate shocks. However, this effect was found to be closely linked with the underlying exchange rate regime. Two, the variance decompositions (VDs) indicated that exchange rate shocks had no significant weight as there was no impact recorded on inflation, interest rate and money supply after one year under the fixed regime. Third, the corresponding VDs under the flexible regime showed that the effect of exchange rate on the monetary aggregates was more significant, especially in the long-run. A key policy implication of the foregoing results was that domestic economic management policies should be proactively orchestrated to better align the objectives of exchange rate policy with broader macroeconomic goals.
Energy Consumption and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel Econometric Analysis
(Inderscience Enterprises LTD, 2013) Ajide. K.; Bekoe, W.; Yaqub, J.; Adeniyi, O. A.
This paper investigated the energy consumption-financial development linkage for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Annual data for 26 countries spanning the period 1996 to 2009 was used to elicit answers on the questions of interest. This is the first attempt, as far as we are aware, at examining the linkage between shocks to and response of the energy and financial markets of SSA economies. Recent panel causality techniques are deployed to probe causal orderings both in the short- and long-run. The results suggest that regardless of the financial development measure, there is weak evidence for short-run causality. Contrariwise, there appears to be ample evidence in support of long-run causality particularly flowing from private sector credit as a share of GDP to total energy consumption. For electricity consumption, there is short-run and long-run causality from private sector credit to GDP ratio. In sum, these plausibly imply that a deeper financial system effectively allocates resources to the private sector enabling a scaling up in operations and by extension higher energy requirements.
Energy Consumption and Sectoral Trade in Selected West African Economies
(Inderscience Publishers, 2019) Adeniyi, O. A.; Adewuyi, A. O.
This paper examines the impact of disaggregate energy consumption on sectoral trade in selected West African countries from 1971 to 2015. Panel data analysis indicates that the effect of fossil fuel consumption on agricultural, manufactured and services exports is negative, while that of fuel export is positive. However, electricity has positive effect on the exports of three sectors, while its impact on fuel export is insignificant. Further, fossil fuel generates negative impact on manufactured and services imports, but positive and insignificant effect on agricultural and fuel exports respectively. The effect of electricity on sectoral imports is positive except for agricultural products where it is insignificant. The country level analysis reveals diverse effects of fossil fuel and electricity consumption across sectoral trade structure and the selected West African countries. The foregoing findings inform the articulation of some policy implications including the following. Energy conservation policy is required to encourage production and exporting of commodities with energy saving techniques so as to save costs, conserve non-renewable energy, and foster export diversification in the selected countries. Liberal import policy should be accompanied with energy conservation policy especially where inefficiency of non-renewable energy use is prevalent.
Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in Nigeria: Firm-level Evidence
(Routledge / Taylor & Francis, 2020) Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.
This study examined the symmetry and asymmetry of the exchange rate-stock price nexus for 54 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). We employed asymmetric Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model proposed for time series, using daily data for the period from December 12, 2001 to December 8, 2017. For comparative purposes, we also estimated the symmetric version. In the linear model, we found insignificant relationship between exchange rate and stock prices in most of the firms. Similarly, in the NARDL estimations, we observed that exchange rate movements do not have asymmetric impacts on stock prices in almost all the firms. In line with these findings, we recommend that financiers cannot make informed investment decisions using information obtained from the exchange rate market. In addition, the monetary authorities may need to reconsider the strict use of exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment