scholarly works
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Item Cost-effectiveness analysis of mectizan treatment programme for onchocerciasis control: operational experiences in two district of Southern Nigeria(Dept. of Physiology, College of Medicine of the University of Lagos, Lagos, 2009) Osungbade, K. O.; Olumide, E. A. A.; Lawanson, A. O.; Asuzu, M. C.Objectives: This study analyze the operational costs of two Mectizan treatment strategies in relation to their effectiveness. Methods: The study was conducted in 24 communities located in Irewole and Egbeda districts of Osun and Oyo State, Nigeria respectively. Cost-effectiveness analysis included retrospective analysis of cost of treatment, review of records of distributors, estimation of overall cost-effectiveness ratio of treatment and distribution, calculation of mean cost-effectiveness ratios and statistical comparison of the mean cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Overall cost of treatment per person through mobile distribution was N27.39 (USD1.16) while the corresponding overall cost through community-directed distribution was N14.35 (USD0.61). Overall cost of distribution per tablet through mobile distribution was N20.97 (USD0.89) while the corresponding overall cost through community-directed distribution was N8.39 (USD0.36). The difference between the mean cost-effectiveness ratios for treatments through mobile distribution, 56.79, and community directed distribution, 32,53, was not statistically significant (p=0.120265). Similarly, the difference between the mean cost-effectiveness ratios for distribution of tablets through mobile distribution, 40.83, and community-directed distribution, 19.17, was not statistically significant (p=0.167249). Treatment coverages were 59% and 80%, and 2,376 and 4,148 tablets were respectlveIy distributed, Conclusion: Distribution of Mectizan tablets by community-directed distributors was more cost-effective than by mobile health staff, but the differences in cost ere not statistically significant. However, this could ensure self-reIiance and sustainability of treatment programmes, which are prerequisites for decision making on treatment strategies.Item National health accounts: structure, trends and sustainability of health expenditure in Nigeria(African Journals Online, 2007) Soyibo, A.; Olaniyan, O.; Lawanson, A. O.This paper explored the structure of the contribution of different stakeholders to the financing of health care in Nigeria. The analysis was based on the National Health Accounts (NHA) 1998 to 2002 estimates for Nigeria. The main objective was to assess the viability of each stakeholder as a sustainable means of financing health provision in Nigeria. About two-thirds of health expenditure in Nigeria was directly financed by households, while public sector funding was less than half the amount committed by households. Third-party payment through health insurance represented a minuscule portion. A comparative analysis of the trend in the sources of income of households and revenue of government, revealed a wide disparity that suggested possible non-sustainability of their respective roles in health financing in Nigeria. Apart from the fact that the contributions of NGOs’ were very small, they were dependent on donor funds whose vagaries can significantly affect sustainability. Though, health insurance contributed minimally to health financing in Nigeria, its prospect in assuming a significant role appeared to be very bright. The progressive growth of health insurance contributions was an indication of the prospect of the recently introduced National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in Nigeria. The NHIS represents a viable means of pooling resources in such a way that the burden of both the government and the households can be greatly relieved. Thus, the sustainability of financing health care in Nigeria may strongly depend on the extent to which the populace was covered by the health insurance plan.Item Impact of manufactured goods’ exports on economic growth: a dynamic econometric model for Nigeria(African Journals Online, 2004-12) Lawanson, O. T.; Lawanson, A. O.; Bankole, A. S.The impact of exports on growth has for a long time enmeshed in controversy partly due to both positive and negative effects empirically established in the literature. Still, most studies in developing countries have left detailed examination of exports' components and domestic institutions unexplored in the export-growth nexus. Based on an error correction model, this paper examines the impact of manufactured exports and its components on economic growth in Nigeria, taking cognisance of the country’s institutional framework. Few of the components of manufactured exports were found to exert positive influence on growth both in the long and short runs. The paper, however, finds ample evidence in support of the relevance of quality of institutions in the economic growth process. In effect, with the right institutional framework, export-led growth, , and specific focus on selected manufacturing subsectors there appears to be a feasible development strategy for Nigeria.Item Import competition and Nigeria’s manufacturing sector: analysis of the employment effects of trade(African Journals Online, 1999-06) Bankole, A. S.; Lawanson, O. A.; Aminu, A.Item EXCISE TAXATION IN NIGERIA(1970) ADEWUMI, M. O.Item THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTES IN NIGERIA, 1950 - 1971; AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY(1973) ADIKIBI, O. T.Cigarette, besides being an important source of Excise tax revenue to many countries, has interesting theoretical implications mainly because of the very peculiar consumer needs it satisfies and because it has no exact direct substitute, except substitution among the different brands that exist. Over the years, the consumption of cigarettes in Nigeria has increased remarkably despite all the medical, social and religious campaigns against smoking. This study attempts at explaining the observed variations in the National consumption of cigarettes within the period 1950-71 as influenced by some variables, the strength of which the study tries to measure by applying econometric methods. The variables considered are economic and demographic factors; the economic factors include income and prices while the demographic variable is changes in the proportion of smokers in the population. The study therefore estimates the elasticities of demand for cigarette with respect to income, average price of cigarettes, price index of all other commodities and the demographic factor. The single equation model is adopted to analyse idle annual time- series used in the study. National aggregates as well as per capita data formulations were tested. For the dependent variable (i.e. quantity of cigarettes consumed) aggregation logically means the assumption that cigarettes are homogeneous. The function adopted is non-linear in the original data but linearized in logarithms, the parameters of which were derived by least squares. Besides these other variables, a war-year dummy was introduced in the function to take care of "erractic factors" which affected the consumption of cigarettes during the Nigerian civil-war period, 1967-70. The analysis was carried out on two levels; the static and the dynamic approaches. While in the former the current value of the independent variables influenced the current value of the dependent variable, in the latter, a lagged variable (the quantity variable was lagged) was introduced into the function explicitly. The latter analysis - i.e. the dynamic approach - was applied to test the habit- persistence hypothesis. The results obtained in the study are: (a) the elasticities of demand with respect to income and an average of cigarette prices are low though the income elasticity is comparatively higher. In both cases none was up to 0.7. The price elasticity was particularly low, it was under 0.4. (b) the cross elasticity of demand 'with respect to the price of all other commodities v/as positive and nearer 2 than 1. In other words, it was far greater than unity and thus tends to indicate that consumers were more sensitive to changes in the prices of other commodities than to cigarette prices. (c) 'population', perhaps the changes in the proportion of smokers to non-smokers or the extension of the smoking habit to -the women and members of the lower age group, is a significant factor accounting partly for variations in the National consumption of cigarettes. (d) the habit-persistence hypothesis was supported by the results of this study, that is, the more a person ha3 consumed cigarettes in the past, the more he will consume currently. The estimated "coefficient of adjustment' was about 0.86 which indicates a speedy adjustment of consumption to changes in prices and income. (e) the dummy variable shows positive sign which shows that the National consumption of cigarettes increased during the civil-war despite the temporary loss of the Eastern market. It was suggested from the above result that during major political upheavals the consumption of cigarettes will increase ceteris-paribus. This increase might have been due partly, to the high tension and depressive mood that engulfed the country and, of course, the military consumption. In conclusion, the economic and policy implications of the results were discussed. To the Government, cigarette is one of the products to tax to raise revenue. To the firms engaged in the Tobacco Industry, it might be profitable to pursue a relatively stable retail price policy in view of the high sensitivity of consumers to changes in the prices of other commodities.Item A DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR CEMENT IN NIGERIA(1970) ADEJUGBE, M. O. A.This study was motivated by the fact that although there are several works on the supply of cement in Nigeria, the demand aspect has not been examined in detail and quantitatively. This study attempts to estimate the price and income elasticities of demand for both imported cement and for aggregate demand for cement in Nigeria. It also attempts to assess the impact of custom tariff on imported cement and appraise the import substitution effects of the domestic manufacturing of cement in Nigeria. And finally, the thesis attempts to show the trend of cement consumption in Nigeria between 1948 - 66, the annual rate of growth of consumption during this period as well as the future time path of this rate of growth. The market analysis in chapter two deals with the supply and demand determinants and the pricing policies of the firms. The market structure is also analyzed and the results of the carefully managed government foreign policy in respect of importation of cement. An appropriate model is postulated in chapter three to grapple with the problem of the demand equations. The theoretical framework is also discussed in this chapter. Chapter four is devoted to the discussion of the results of the estimated demand equations. The least squares method is used to estimate the parameters of the equations. Prom the results it is concluded that cement is price inelastic; both aggregate and imported cement exhibit low and shifting price elasticity. Aggregate demand for cement is "income" elastic. The income elasticity for imported cement is however low, this is a sign of increasing import substitution. The impact of tariff on imported cement is somewhat low when measured in terms of elasticity. The trend of cement consumption during the reference period shows that cement consumption has been growing at a decreasing rate. The rate of growth tends to about 2% with time though the level of consumption grows infinitely large with time.Item EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS(1993) ADEGBITE, E. O.In 1973 the industrial countries of the world abandoned the Bretton – Wood adjustable - peg exchange rate system as a means of international payments, and embraced a floating exchange rate system. By the beginning of the 1980's some developing countries of the world joined the league of exchange rate-floaters. It was thought that a floating exchange rate system is intrinsically superior to a fixed one because it not only insulates an economy from the events in other economies but also provides automatic adjustment of the trade balance and the balance of payments. From the mid 1980's however there have been calls in the industrial countries for yet a change in the international payments system from a floating one back to the Bretton-Woods fixed system (Marris, 1984; Dunn, 1983) or to some other variant of a fixed system. The questions then are - is there an ideal exchange rate regime? - is there reason to believe that a given exchange rate regime enhances the performance of an economy better than another? These questions form the focus of this study. There have been several positions in the literature. While Mundell-Fleming (1960, 1962) maintain that a floating exchange system is better than a fixed one if a country tends to depend more on monetary policy, but that a fixed exchange rate regime is ideal when fiscal policy is the major instrument employed in an economy, Sohmen (1965) maintained that a floating regime is superior whatever the more dominant economic policy (fiscal or monetary). Demberg (1970) maintained that the performance of an economy does not depend on the exchange rate regime per-se but rather on the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy. In the developing world there is fear that a floating exchange regime would aggravate rather than reduce the problems of inflation. debt-service burden and balance of payments disequilibrium (Olofin, Akinkugbe, Ajayi 1986). This study therefore attempted to find out which of the positions in the literature really holds in the case of developing African economies. To find answers to the issues raised we chose three African economies who had experienced both fixed and floating exchange rate systems, Namely, Ghana. Nigeria and Uganda. We built a model of each economy in the manner of Rhomberg (1964) and Tullio 1981. Each model has two versions. The shorter version has seven stochastic equations and tries to capture the economy under a fixed system, while the longer version added two additional stochastic equations to the first set and endogenizes exchange rates and interest rates as obtains under a floating exchange system. Utilizing quarterly data for 1977 to 1990 for Nigeria and Ghana, and for 1981 to 1990 for Uganda and employing the Ordinary Least Squares technique we estimated the shorter version of the model for the period 1977:1- 1990:4 and the longer version for the period 1986:4-1990:4 for Ghana and Nigeria. In the case of Uganda we estimated the longer version for the period 1981:1 to 1990:4 and the shorter version for 1987:2 to 1990:4. Beyond the statistical tests of the individual equations and parameters, we attempted to carry out rigorous tests of the validity of our model(s) through dynamic simulation. Thus we solved our model(s) using the Time Series Processor (TSP) econometric Software (Version 4.0) developed by Hall in 1983. When we solved each model using the Gauss -Seidel iterative technique, each converged for each endogenous variable and for each year demonstrating that each model is internally consistent. Utilizing different policy scenarios we tried to find out the effects of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policy changes on internal sectors' macroaggregates of prices, real demand for money and money supply, as well as on external sector's macroaggregates of exports, imports and the trade balance. The results of our estimation exercises reveal that in Ghana a floating exchange rate system does not fuel inflation as is suggested by casual empiricism; rather it is the money supply that is the major propeller of domestic prices, given an exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices of 2% which is statistically insignificant at the 5% level and a money supply elasticity of domestic prices of 19% that is statistically significant at the 5% level. In Uganda there is a remarkable pass through from nominal exchange rates onto prices which contradicts Elbadawi's (1990) position, that it is not nominal exchange rates that fuel inflation in Uganda but fiscal deficits. The exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices in Uganda is 11% and this is statistically significant at the 5% level. However even in Uganda, nominal money supply and nominal rates of interest proved to be greater propellers of prices hence they have more dominant impact on inflation than the nominal exchange rate. In Nigeria there is some degree of pass through from nominal exchange rates onto prices given an exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices of 5%, which is statistically significant at the 5% level. However as in Ghana and Uganda money supply was the greater propeller of prices in Nigeria. What is more- the estimation results also showed that nominal exchange rates in the three countries follow the money supply. This goes to show that the behavior of the money supply and hence monetary policy influences the direction and degree of variability in nominal exchange rates under a floating system. Hence it shows that monetary policy is crucial to the success of the floating exchange rate system. Further the money supply was shown to vary in response to government fiscal deficits which makes fiscal prudence or otherwise the major determinant of exchange rate movements. For the simulation experiments we tried to find in what ways our endogenous variables change if a given macroeconomic policy varies while the others are kept constant. Thus we increased the rate of growth of government expenditure while keeping monetary policy and exchange rate policy constant. Similarly when we increased the rate of growth of the money supply we assumed fiscal and exchange rate policies to be constant. Our results show that in the long-run (over a period of at least ten years) a floating exchange rate performs better than a fixed one in terms of ensuring expanded output which ensures declining prices which in turn results in rising real demand for money and hence in rising rates of interests. A floating exchange rate regime also expanded exports and higher positive trade balance. Overall however the success of the floating system depends on coordinated and prudent macroeconomic policies; in the words of Goldstein (1984) "the capacity of the exchange rate system per-se to do good or harm should not be overestimated... the importance of discipline and coordinated macroeconomic policies for the successful operation of floating exchange rate regime should not be underestimated".Item A DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR CEMENT IN NIGERIA(1970) ADEJUGBE, M. O. A.This study was motivated by the fact that although there are several works on the supply of cement in Nigeria, the demand aspect has not been examined in detail and quantitatively. This study attempts to estimate the price and income elasticities of demand for both imported cement and for aggregate demand for cement in Nigeria. It also attempts to assess the impact of custom tariff on imported cement and appraise the import substitution effects of the domestic manufacturing of cement in Nigeria. And finally, the thesis attempts to show the trend of cement consumption in Nigeria between 1948 - 66, the annual rate of growth of consumption during this period as well as the future time path of this rate of growth. The market analysis in chapter two deals with the supply and demand determinants and the pricing policies of the firms. The market structure is also analyzed and the results of the carefully managed government foreign policy in respect of importation of cement. An appropriate model is postulated in chapter three to grapple with the problem of the demand equations. The theoretical framework is also discussed in this chapter. Chapter four is devoted to the discussion of the results of the estimated demand equations. The least squares method is used to estimate the parameters of the equations. Prom the results it is concluded that cement is price inelastic; both aggregate and imported cement exhibit low and shifting price elasticity. Aggregate demand for cement is "income" elastic. The income elasticity for imported cement is however low, this is a sign of increasing import substitution. The impact of tariff on imported cement is somewhat low when measured in terms of elasticity. The trend of cement consumption during the reference period shows that cement consumption has been growing at a decreasing rate. The rate of growth tends to about 2% with time though the level of consumption grows infinitely large with time.Item AN APPLICATION OF GOAL PROGRAMMING TO ACADEMIC RESOURCE ALLOCATION PLANNING(1982-12) SOYIBO, A.Since the last decade, universities in Nigeria have been experiencing a progressive decline in required inputs, like funds, materials and academic staff. In spite of this, there has been a continuing rise in the demand for their services, as shown by rising student enrolment figures (Nigeria, 1981). Confronted with such a problem, universities require more than ever before, formal decision models for planning the allocation of their scarce resources as efficiently as possible. This study applies goal programming for planning the academic resource allocation--a major input--of the University of Ibadan for 1982/83-l986/87. The goal programming model used modifies that of Schroeder (1974) by defining explicitly a student enrolment goal and introducing an academic staff level goal, which is designed to cater for academic staff advancement, at least according to the historical rate in each faculty. Furthermore, it redefines the academic rank distribution goal to incorporate the controversial 30%-40%-30% rank distribution ratios introduced in 1981. The study seeks principally to determine the distribution of academic staff by rank, in each faculty/college, over a five-year period and recommend the planning implications of such a distribution. In addition, it attempts to find the effects of dropping the controversial rank distribution goal on the model solution. The model was solved using the Revised Simplex Goal Programming Algorithm developed by Kang (l980) on an I.B.M. VM 370 computer in the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, U.S.A. The analysis of the model solution: suggests that from a purely theoretical point of view, it is desirable to use a rank distribution goal, for an optimization model of the type used in the study; otherwise, the model will select least cost allocation alternatives only and such a solution cannot be used effectively for planning. However, the distributional ratios to be used should not be rigid like the controversial ones of 1981, but should reflect the historical advancement rates in the respective faculties. The result of solving such a model should be, used for indicative planning only; -confirms the fear that the use of fixed rank distribution ratios might inhibit promotion rate; -indicates that the Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry appears to be operating very much below the minimum level of academic staff requirement to meet the student enrolment goal of that faculty as of now; -suggests that by the beginning of 1986/87, the University of Ibadan will require a minimum of 1,133 academic staff of various ranks to meet its student enrolment goal. This is over 60% above the minimum requirement at the beginning of 1982/83; -recommends that the University should pursue a vigorous Staff Development Programme in which the training of the best of its graduates--through a type of Junior Fellowship Programme--will be the core, as one approach of augmenting the supply of academic staff normally obtained through recruitment; -corroborates the findings of Kang (1980) that CPU time of the Revised Simplex Goal Programming Algorithm, tends to increase with increasing negative deviational variables in the objective function.