FACULTY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
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Item Globalisation and Inclusive Growth in Sub Saharan Africa: The Role of Institutional Quality(Sage Publications India Pvt. Ltd, 2023) Kumeka, T.; Raifu, I. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.This study examines the relationship between globalisation and inclusive growth by considering the modulating role of institutional quality. To achieve our broad objective, we use data from 45 African economies over 1996–2018 to deter mine the panel cointegration and cointegrating regression association between inclusive growth, globalisation and institutional quality. To determine a suitable estimation technique for the empirical analysis, several pre-estimation tests were conducted. After confirming the existence of cointegration and slope hetero geneity, we adapted the long-run panel cointegrating methods—the fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares estimations. The results from both show that aggregate globalisation and its various dimensions have positive and significant effects on inclusive growth. Besides the direct positive impact on inclusive growth, globalisation has indirect positive and significant impact on inclusive growth through institutional quality. Finally, some policy implications are highlighted.Item Stock Market Responses to Contagious Disease: Evidence of COVID-19 in the Three Worst Hit African Economies(John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2023) Kumeka, T.; Adeniyi, O. A.This study analyses whether Coronavirus health shocks and government responses in terms of lockdown policy and stringency measures impact stock markets in Africa. We found that stock markets appeared to be more negatively responsive to growth in total number of COVID-19 reported cases than the growth in deaths in the case of Nigeria and South Africa. While for Egypt, the stock market reacted significantly negative to both COVID-19-related indicators. Our results further show that government stringency policy has significant negative effect on stock market returns in the case of Nigeria and South Africa, but positive in the case of Egypt.Item Tourism-Income Inequality Nexus in Africa: Evidence from SADC countries(Taylor & Francis (Routledge), 2023) Adeniyi, O. A.; Adekunle, W.; Afolabi, J.; Kumeka, T.The tourism sector is one of the fastest-growing services sub-sectors worldwide and promises to unlock job opportunities and improve social inclusion outcomes in developing countries. We focused on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, which houses developing countries with high income inequality and constitutes attractive tourist centres in sub-Saharan Africa. We employed both the disaggregated and composite indicators of tourism development to investigate the tourism-income inequality nexus in the SADC region from 2010 to 2019. Utilizing the panel quantile regression approach, our overall results suggest that tourism development is inequality-worsening, and this is robust to both the composite tourism index and the individual tourism indicators (except in a few instances). While we established that net FDI inflows improve the inequality outcomes in the region, less corruption worsens inequality (except in a few cases). Accordingly, we offer relevant policy options for the governments of the SADC region.Item Dependence Between Foreign Trade Performance and Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel ARDL Approach(Croatian Statistical Association (CSA), 2023) Oyinlola, M.A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.The purpose of this study is to analyse the influence of exchange rate shocks on foreign trade (exports and imports) of fifteen economies within the ECOWAS sub region. To accomplish the goal of this paper, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure was employed to investigate the impact volatility in the exchange rate market has on foreign trade in both long- and short-term with data between 1980 and 2020. To compute volatility, it relied on the GARCH (1, 1) model which predicted the conditional variances as proxy for volatility. Our empirical results are distinguished into export model and import model, and reveal that volatility in exchange rate influence foreign trade performance (exports and imports) negatively in the short run, though statistically insignificant. The impact however becomes positive in the long run, and statistically significant for the two models. These results signpost that while the volatilities in foreign exchange market appear to deteriorate the international trade of these economies in the short-term, it substantially and significantly causes its improvement in the long-term. Hence, our results validate the J curve effect in the case of these ECOWAS economies. Policy implication from the findings suggests that to develop a robust international trade and ultimate economic growth, it is recommended that policymakers of these economies maintain a short-term stability in their foreign currency markets by way of adopting some intervention measures.Item Impact of Tourism Development on Inclusive Growth: A Panel Autoregression Analysis for African Economies(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2023) Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.; Orekoya, S. O.; Adekunle, W.The persistent debate among policy makers and academics around combating the high rates of poverty and income inequality can be further illuminated by understanding how tourism con tributes to inclusive growth, especially in developing economies. Tourism sector can be regarded as one of the key contributors to inclusive growth and where it has the capacity to generate prospects for productive employment. The goal of this article is thus to investigate the link between inclusive growth and tourism in the African context. To do this, we utilized a recent panel vector autoregression (pVAR) and data for 45 African countries spanning the period 1995 to 2019. Thus, by the error variance decomposition and impulse response functions, our results showed a weak positive effect of international tourism arrivals and the composite tourism indicator on inclusive growth, while tourism receipts and tourism expenditure insignificantly decreases inclusive growth in the sampled African economies. Our result is further supported by the panel system generalized method of moments (GMM). We provide some policy implications from our findings.Item Natural Resource Dependence and Tax Effort in Sub Saharan Africa(Economic Research Institute of Chung-Ang University in South Korea, 2022) Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.; Alagbada, O.The study investigated the empirical relationship between natural resource dependence and tax effort in 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, with data for the period 1996-2016. The findings indicated that in economies with oil rents, less efforts is invested on other non-oil-resource revenues. In these countries, trade openness deteriorates tax revenue efforts, consequently the bulk of government revenue come from the sale of crude oil. In contrast, economies without oil rents seem to channel more efforts towards non-oil-tax revenue. In these economies, our result showed that trade openness is an important improvement to tax revenues. We recommend that for economies with oil rents, proper tax record keeping and documentation of separate revenue sources be maintained. Conversely, other resources rent economies are also recommended to depend less on natural resources rents and grants from foreign donors; and maintain a policy of no non-tariff barriers to trade, except for health, social and security reasons.Item Is Stock Market in Sub Saharan Africa Resilient to Health Shocks?(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2022) Kumeka, T.; Ajayi, P.; Adeniyi, O. A.Purpose - This paper aims to examine the impact of health and other exogenous shocks on stock markets in Africa. Particularly, the authors examined the resilience of the major stock markets in 12 African economies during the recent global pandemic. Design/methodology/approach - This paper uses the recent panel vector autoregressive model, which enables us to capture the response of stock markets to shocks in COVID-19, commodity markets and exchange rate. For robustness, the authors also analysed the panel Granger causality test. Data was obtained for the period ranging from 2 January 2020 to 31 December 2020. Findings - The results show that the growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths do not have any substantial impact on the stock market returns of these economies. In terms of commodity markets, the authors find that gold price has a negative contemporaneous effect on stock returns, but the effect fizzles out around the fifth day while crude oil price, on the other hand, has a significant positive simultaneous impact on stock returns and also converges around the fifth day. The authors further find that the exchange rate has a contemporaneous and nonlinear effect on stock returns and seems to be more dramatic when compared with the other variables. Overall, the results show that stock markets in Africa appear to be flexible and resilient against the COVID-19 outbreak but are affected by other exogenous shocks such as volatile commodity prices and the foreign exchange market. The effect is, however, short-lived-between one to five days. Practical implications - Following the study's findings, policies should be put in place to support financial markets by way of hedging against commodity instability and securing domestic currency financing. Policymakers are also recommended to concentrate on managing the uncertainties around their exchange rate markets and develop robust and efficient domestic financial markets to encourage local and foreign investors. Originality/value - Several studies have been carried out on the effects of disasters (such as the COVID-19 pandemic) on stock markets, but only a few studies have examined the resilience of stock markets to health and other exogenous shocks. This study's attempt is not only to examine the impact of COVID-19 health shocks on stock markets but also to analyse the resilience of the sampled stock markets. The authors also analyse the resilience of stock markets to commodity markets and exchange rates shocks.Item COVID-19 Pandemic and Sectoral Stock Performance in Nigeria: A Quantile Regression Approach(Allied Business Academies, 2021) Kumeka, T.; Raifu, I. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.This study examines the effects of COVID-19 pandemic (cases and deaths) and government policy responses on the sectoral stock returns in Nigerian using daily data from January 2nd, 2020 to November 24th, 2020. The stock returns of five sectors are considered which include consumer goods, banking, oil and gas, food/beverages and insurance. Employing OLS and quantile regression methods, our results establish that COVID-19 cases, deaths, and government stringency, and containment and health policy have strong impacts on sectoral stock returns. However, the impact appears to be stronger from COVID-19 confirmed cases, and containment and health policy than from its deaths and government stringency policy. Structure of dependence is predominantly stronger in the bearish markets and is significantly negative at the extreme lower and intermediate quantiles. COVID-19 cases and stringency and containment and health policies move in opposite direction to these sectors’ stock returns. As Coronavirus cases surge, stock prices decline.Item Effects of COVID-19 on Trade, Industrialisation and Globalisation in Africa.(Centre for Sustainable Development, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, 2021) Shinyekwa, I. M. B.; Kumeka, T.; Adedeji, A.; Adeniyi, O. A.This paper examined the potential effects of the global Corona Virus (COVID-19) pandemic on the paths of international trade, industrial development and economic globalization on the African continent. Deploying a purely descriptive analytical approach, a number of submissions are made. One, the pandemic significantly disrupted African trade -on both import and export sides - particularly owing to the closures of ports and other external trade infrastructure in China which is the largest trading partner for most African countries. Two, and somewhat related to the first point, the manufacturing sector that is meant to propel industrialization on the continent was also hard hit especially due to the huge shock to the supply chains of intermediate inputs. Third, since globalizations -on both the economic and cultural fronts- has led to greater interconnectedness, spillovers of the negative shock from China to other parts of the world including Africa is more palpable than otherwise. On the basis of the foregoing, some propositions on the key efforts that should be pursued and intensified are highlighted.Item Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in Nigeria: Firm-level Evidence(Routledge / Taylor & Francis, 2020) Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.This study examined the symmetry and asymmetry of the exchange rate-stock price nexus for 54 firms listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). We employed asymmetric Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model proposed for time series, using daily data for the period from December 12, 2001 to December 8, 2017. For comparative purposes, we also estimated the symmetric version. In the linear model, we found insignificant relationship between exchange rate and stock prices in most of the firms. Similarly, in the NARDL estimations, we observed that exchange rate movements do not have asymmetric impacts on stock prices in almost all the firms. In line with these findings, we recommend that financiers cannot make informed investment decisions using information obtained from the exchange rate market. In addition, the monetary authorities may need to reconsider the strict use of exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment