FACULTY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
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Item Import competition and Nigeria’s manufacturing sector: analysis of the employment effects of trade(African Journals Online, 1999-06) Bankole, A. S.; Lawanson, O. A.; Aminu, A.Item The inversion of geoelectrical data for hydrogeological applications in crystalline basement areas of Nigeria(ELSEVIER, 1997) Olayinka, A.I.; Weller, A.A methodology is presented for the inversion of two-dimensional (2-D) geoelectrical data for solving hydrogeological problems in crystalline basement areas. The initial step entails compiling an earth model using all available geological, borehole and geophysical information. This model then served as the input to a 2-D inversion algorithm based on the Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique (SIRT). The algorithm tries to find a model that is as close as possible to the starting model. To demonstrate the usefulness of this procedure, two field examples from Nigeria, conducted as part of a borehole siting programme, are described. In the first example, borehole information regarding the thickness of the weathered zone overlying a gneissic bedrock was used to constrain the 1-D inversion of sounding data and the model thus compiled was used as the starting model for 2-D inversion. In the second example, only sounding information was used to determine the starting model. If the starting model has incorporated all the available information as constraints, it is generally possible to compute a model that not only fits the measured data but is also a good approximation of the subsurface geology, more so when several 2-D models can fit the same set of field measurements on account of the limitations posed by equivalenceItem Psychological aspects of death(Nigerian psychological association, 1999) Tamen, F. I.; Taiwo, A. O.; Ekore, J. O.; Edewor, D.; Ojo, S.; Ojedokun, O.Item EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS(1993) ADEGBITE, E. O.In 1973 the industrial countries of the world abandoned the Bretton – Wood adjustable - peg exchange rate system as a means of international payments, and embraced a floating exchange rate system. By the beginning of the 1980's some developing countries of the world joined the league of exchange rate-floaters. It was thought that a floating exchange rate system is intrinsically superior to a fixed one because it not only insulates an economy from the events in other economies but also provides automatic adjustment of the trade balance and the balance of payments. From the mid 1980's however there have been calls in the industrial countries for yet a change in the international payments system from a floating one back to the Bretton-Woods fixed system (Marris, 1984; Dunn, 1983) or to some other variant of a fixed system. The questions then are - is there an ideal exchange rate regime? - is there reason to believe that a given exchange rate regime enhances the performance of an economy better than another? These questions form the focus of this study. There have been several positions in the literature. While Mundell-Fleming (1960, 1962) maintain that a floating exchange system is better than a fixed one if a country tends to depend more on monetary policy, but that a fixed exchange rate regime is ideal when fiscal policy is the major instrument employed in an economy, Sohmen (1965) maintained that a floating regime is superior whatever the more dominant economic policy (fiscal or monetary). Demberg (1970) maintained that the performance of an economy does not depend on the exchange rate regime per-se but rather on the optimal mix of fiscal and monetary policy. In the developing world there is fear that a floating exchange regime would aggravate rather than reduce the problems of inflation. debt-service burden and balance of payments disequilibrium (Olofin, Akinkugbe, Ajayi 1986). This study therefore attempted to find out which of the positions in the literature really holds in the case of developing African economies. To find answers to the issues raised we chose three African economies who had experienced both fixed and floating exchange rate systems, Namely, Ghana. Nigeria and Uganda. We built a model of each economy in the manner of Rhomberg (1964) and Tullio 1981. Each model has two versions. The shorter version has seven stochastic equations and tries to capture the economy under a fixed system, while the longer version added two additional stochastic equations to the first set and endogenizes exchange rates and interest rates as obtains under a floating exchange system. Utilizing quarterly data for 1977 to 1990 for Nigeria and Ghana, and for 1981 to 1990 for Uganda and employing the Ordinary Least Squares technique we estimated the shorter version of the model for the period 1977:1- 1990:4 and the longer version for the period 1986:4-1990:4 for Ghana and Nigeria. In the case of Uganda we estimated the longer version for the period 1981:1 to 1990:4 and the shorter version for 1987:2 to 1990:4. Beyond the statistical tests of the individual equations and parameters, we attempted to carry out rigorous tests of the validity of our model(s) through dynamic simulation. Thus we solved our model(s) using the Time Series Processor (TSP) econometric Software (Version 4.0) developed by Hall in 1983. When we solved each model using the Gauss -Seidel iterative technique, each converged for each endogenous variable and for each year demonstrating that each model is internally consistent. Utilizing different policy scenarios we tried to find out the effects of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policy changes on internal sectors' macroaggregates of prices, real demand for money and money supply, as well as on external sector's macroaggregates of exports, imports and the trade balance. The results of our estimation exercises reveal that in Ghana a floating exchange rate system does not fuel inflation as is suggested by casual empiricism; rather it is the money supply that is the major propeller of domestic prices, given an exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices of 2% which is statistically insignificant at the 5% level and a money supply elasticity of domestic prices of 19% that is statistically significant at the 5% level. In Uganda there is a remarkable pass through from nominal exchange rates onto prices which contradicts Elbadawi's (1990) position, that it is not nominal exchange rates that fuel inflation in Uganda but fiscal deficits. The exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices in Uganda is 11% and this is statistically significant at the 5% level. However even in Uganda, nominal money supply and nominal rates of interest proved to be greater propellers of prices hence they have more dominant impact on inflation than the nominal exchange rate. In Nigeria there is some degree of pass through from nominal exchange rates onto prices given an exchange rate elasticity of domestic prices of 5%, which is statistically significant at the 5% level. However as in Ghana and Uganda money supply was the greater propeller of prices in Nigeria. What is more- the estimation results also showed that nominal exchange rates in the three countries follow the money supply. This goes to show that the behavior of the money supply and hence monetary policy influences the direction and degree of variability in nominal exchange rates under a floating system. Hence it shows that monetary policy is crucial to the success of the floating exchange rate system. Further the money supply was shown to vary in response to government fiscal deficits which makes fiscal prudence or otherwise the major determinant of exchange rate movements. For the simulation experiments we tried to find in what ways our endogenous variables change if a given macroeconomic policy varies while the others are kept constant. Thus we increased the rate of growth of government expenditure while keeping monetary policy and exchange rate policy constant. Similarly when we increased the rate of growth of the money supply we assumed fiscal and exchange rate policies to be constant. Our results show that in the long-run (over a period of at least ten years) a floating exchange rate performs better than a fixed one in terms of ensuring expanded output which ensures declining prices which in turn results in rising real demand for money and hence in rising rates of interests. A floating exchange rate regime also expanded exports and higher positive trade balance. Overall however the success of the floating system depends on coordinated and prudent macroeconomic policies; in the words of Goldstein (1984) "the capacity of the exchange rate system per-se to do good or harm should not be overestimated... the importance of discipline and coordinated macroeconomic policies for the successful operation of floating exchange rate regime should not be underestimated".Item THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF CENTRAL PLACE SYSTEMS: A CASE STUDY OF SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA CENTRAL PLACES(1994-04) ADEBOYEJO, A. T.This study analyses the spatial structure and the underlying processes of central places in South-West Nigeria. It adopts the systemic approach to the problem of spatial structure and spatial dynamics and then utilises concepts of “order by fluctuation and dissipative structure" developed in physics as alternative explanatory paradigm for examining the changing relationships between spatial structure and spatial dynamics. The study operationalised conceptual issues such as, systems analysis and systems of central places human settlement as central places; and, spatial dynamics and spatial structure. It also discussed central place theory [CPT] and Dynamic central place theory [DCPT] as theoretical foundation for the research. The study covered all central places in South-west Nigeria with population figures of 5,000 and above in 1952. However, local government headquarters [1976 local government reforms] that do not meet this criterion were included, being central places to their geo-political units. The spatial structure of the one hundred and thirty six central places so identified between 1900 and 1963 were analysed using population data. Since this variable is discontinuous after 1963, a total of fourty-five central functions were collected for each of the central places for three different periods - 1967, 1976 and 1991. These central functions which covered industrial, commercial and service activities were obtained mainly from secondary sources. The changing distribution pattern of the central places since 1900, is first examined using high order Nearest Neighbour technique, while both qualitative and quantitative changes in the spatial structure are evaluated with certain indices of population growth and concentration. Processes of central place growth are discussed within three dominant historical phases, namely, pre-colonial, colonial and early independence epochs. The study then employed multivariate factor analytical technique to examine and analyse the structural features of the central places in the three time periods - 1967, 1976 and 1991 [important benchmarks in Nigeria's political and economic history] . It further employed the technique of hierarchical cluster analysis to define the functional hierarchy of the central places. Changes in the hierarchical structure of the central places within different classes or orders are analysed using the Markov chain model, which also provides a framework for generalising the spatial processes of the central places. From a detailed analysis of the structure of central places, the study identifies pertinent spatial processes that govern spatial structure of development in the region. These spatial processes are related to the observed spatial structure of the central places by an explanatory/predictive canonical model. Changes in the relationships are also examined while processes that govern the spatial structure are quantified. The results of the higher order nearest neigbour analysis shows no statistically significant changes in the location pattern of the central places. However, there is a marked deviation of the distribution pattern of the central places from theoretical postulation of regularity. Factors of socioeconomic and political culture of the Yoruba race within prevailing physiographic context are noted to be fundamental to the observed distributional pattern of the central places. Furthermore, observed variations in the relative sizes and growth structure of the central places from earliest times to date are understandable within broad geographical cum historical context of regional central places. Essentially, it is the nature and changing role of the centers as historical settlements and traditional centers of trade, administration and cultural activities that are fundamental. Furthermore, the factor analytical technique shows that the regional central places possess three basic structural features which are; Industrial development; Education and commerce; and, Social or basic services. Based on the identified dimensions, the hierarchical cluster analysis reveals that five classes or orders of centers are distinguishable in the three periods. It is observed that changes in the hierarchy of the central places can be described by Markov chain model. The results of the model show that higher order centres are more stable in the hierarchy, and that the probability of lower order centres moving into higher orders decreases with time. However an equilibrium distribution of centres in the hierarchy will be reached by the year 2026 A.D. The results of the canonical correlation model of the relationship between spatial structure and spatial processes show that the observed variations in the spatial structure of the S.W. Nigeria central places are due mainly to changing but differing political functions of the central places and their accessibility seen in the strategic location of a center as either Port city, or along important road or railway network or air accessibility. This study provides useful information on the trend and character of the regional space economy and, the types and relative strength of the underlying spatial processes. It is suggested that research into spatial dynamics of regional economic structure, should begin with an examination of the spatio-temporal structure of the system of interest, rather than invoking constant universal processes to be related to a spatial structure. The significant relationship between spatial structure and processes produced by the canonical correlation in this study shows that relevant spatial processes could emerge from a careful analyses of a spatial structure. The study further shows that while systems analysis provides an adequate framework for conceptualizing the web of interrelationships in a spatio-temporal organisation of cities, the unraveling of these relationships remains a major challenge to the formulation of theories and development of models of temporal and spatial processes.Item FINANCING OF BUDGET DEFICITS AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA, 1966-85(1995-07) ABDULLAHI, S. H.In a federal system of government, it may not be sufficient to study the inflationary effect of government reliance on money creation as a major means of financing expenditure. This is particularly so as some level of government besides the central authority may finance its deficit without recourse to money creation but in ways that may ultimately augment the money supply. There is therefore the imperative need to study the interaction between budget deficits and inflation in the Nigerian economy taking into account the various financing options. The stock of money is considered to be affected by the net claims of the central bank and commercial banks on the government. The public finance approach to inflation with its emphasis on the government budget constraint provides the analytical framework on which a monetarist model of inflation is formulated. The model is estimated using annual data for the period 1966-85. Equations are specified to explain price determination, money supply, high-powered money, government net indebtedness to the banking system, revenue, and expenditure. Besides, identities relating to formation of expectations about inflation and the budget constraint are set out. Since the constructed model was over-identified based on the rank and order conditions for identification, the two-stage least sguares technique was used in the estimation. The empirical results show that government borrowing from the central bank as well as the banking system serve to expand the money supply and exert upward pressure on the price level. However, a given percentage increase in the debt holdings of the central bank greatly affects the money supply and price level more than an equivalent percentage increase in the net claims of commercial banks on the government. Debt holdings by the nonbank public was found to have similar macro- economic effects as private wealth. However, because the positive effect on aggregate demand through this financing source is through a channel different from money supply and more importantly its relative insignificance, this phenomenon generally known as "Wealth-Savings Relation" was not incorporated in the analytical model.Item The impact of price reform on the health and productivity of rural women in southern Nigeria(A publication of NISER/SSCN national Research Netwrok on Liberalization Policies in Nigeria supported by International Development Research Centre, Canada, 1996) Isamah, A. N; Owumi, B. E.; Adewumi, F.; Okunola, R.Item Society and health: social pattern of illness and medical care(Resource Development and Management Services, 1996) Owumi, B. E.Item Logotherapy’s knowledge and wisdom(The International Forum for Logotherapy, 1993) Asagba, R.B.Item The pursuit of democracy in Nigeria(The International Forum for Logotherapy, 1996) Asagba, R.B.