FACULTY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

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    A computable general equilibrium analysis of policy options under the Nigeria’s National Economic Empowerment and Development strategy (NEEDS) -2
    (2009-09) Iwayemi, A. P; Olofin, S. O.; Olopoenia, A. A.; Adenikinju, A. F.; Oyeranti, O. A.; Aminu, A.
    The study uses a computable general equilibrium model of Nigeria to investigate the likely effects of two main policy options that will be given special consideration in the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS)-2 slated for implementation under the framework of the recently launched Seven-Point Agenda. The two policy options are the increase in the rate of value-added tax (VAT) and trade liberalisation. It is found. that an increase in VAT rate or a doubling of VAT rate for that matter will increase government revenue but this will be at the cost of a higher rate of inflation and impoverishment of poor households who are in the majority in Nigeria. This finding in part implies that the monetary authority concerned with price level stability should be on the alert whenever any attempt is made by the fiscal authority to increase VAT rate. Any attempt to liberalise trade (especially import) between Nigeria and other countries through the instrumentality of reduction in import duties' rates will boost both import and export transactions but this will at the same time reduce government revenue. One other interesting finding is that a higher percentage reduction in import duties' rates will result in a lower rate of naira depreciation and this sort of suggests that a higher percentage reduction in import duties' rates should be preferred to a lower percentage. The reduction in government revenue due to trade liberalisation implies that government will need to explore and exploit other sources of revenue to ensure sustainability of government expenditure.
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    Savings trend and behaviour in Nigeria
    (West African Monetary Institute, 2004) Akpokodje, G.; Egwaikhide, F. O.; |Oyeranti, O. A.; Ayodele, O. S.
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    Causality between budget deficit and the current account balance in African countries
    (West African Monetary Institute, 2002) Egwaikhide, F. O.; Oyeranti, O. A.; Ayodele, O. S.; Tchokote, J.
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    Anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy effects on real output: evidence from six African countries
    (West African Monetary Institute, 2001-12) Egwaikhide, F. O.; Oyeranti, O. A.; Ayodele, O. S.
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    Four decades of industrialization in Nigeria: a critical analysis
    (Nigerian Economic Society, 2001-11) Egwakhide, F. O.; Ekpo, A. H.; Oyeranti, O. A.; Ayodele, O. S
    This article is a critical review of industrialization in Nigeria. An in-depth examination of developments in the industrial sector since I960 is carried out. Findings reveal that the industrial sector has witnessed structural changes with the consumer goods sub-sector dominating in line with the paradigm of import substitution. However, persistent under-utilization of installed capacity has remained a striking feature of this sector despite the dramatic shift to export-led industrialization. This is so because there is heavy dependence on imported raw materials for production, as weak linkages exist between industry and agriculture. It is therefore argued that institutional arrangements put in place as well as the various policies directed at industrialization require urgent reappraisal.
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    Increase in prices of petroleum products in Nigeria: recounting the costs and benefits
    (The Research and Training Department, Afribank Nigeria Plc., 2001-10) Oyeranti, O. A.; Akpan, G. E.
    Frequent changes in prices of petroleum products in Nigeria have been experienced over the past two and a half decades. The crucial position of energy in both production and consumption process in an economy implies that this act of intermittent changes would have some effects on both welfare and macro-economic variables like general price level and output level in the economy. This study investigates the effects of increased prices of petroleum products, namely, premium motor spirit (PMS), household kerosene (HHK), and automotive gas oil (AGO) in Nigeria, relying on aftermath analysis of previous price increases. These price increases have positive influences on some major price indices with concomitant negative impacts on the welfare and standard of living of Nigerians. These price hikes also have negative correlation with the levels of production activities in the manufacturing sector, which require some energy inputs for successful operation.