FACULTY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
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Item Industrialisation, Finance and Urbanisation in Africa(Penn State University Press, 2023) Adeniyi, O. A.; Folarin, O.This article investigates two key questions: what is the impact of industrialization on urbanization in Africa? And to what extent does financial development affect this industrialization–urbanization nexus? To elicit answers to these questions, data from 33 African countries over a period of 28 years were analyzed using a dynamic panel estimator. The findings showed that industrialization had positive and significant effects on urbanization. Further, the study shows that financial development had a positive effect on urbanization, although it lowers the positive effect of industrialization on urbanization. Hence, industrial policies, particularly those with marked job creation possibilities, should be accompanied by well-designed urban planning policies in order to sidestep the adverse socioeconomic consequences connected with the development of slums in urban areas.Item Globalisation and Inclusive Growth in Sub Saharan Africa: The Role of Institutional Quality(Sage Publications India Pvt. Ltd, 2023) Kumeka, T.; Raifu, I. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.This study examines the relationship between globalisation and inclusive growth by considering the modulating role of institutional quality. To achieve our broad objective, we use data from 45 African economies over 1996–2018 to deter mine the panel cointegration and cointegrating regression association between inclusive growth, globalisation and institutional quality. To determine a suitable estimation technique for the empirical analysis, several pre-estimation tests were conducted. After confirming the existence of cointegration and slope hetero geneity, we adapted the long-run panel cointegrating methods—the fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares estimations. The results from both show that aggregate globalisation and its various dimensions have positive and significant effects on inclusive growth. Besides the direct positive impact on inclusive growth, globalisation has indirect positive and significant impact on inclusive growth through institutional quality. Finally, some policy implications are highlighted.Item I Prefer to be Old School and Safe”: Fear of Fraud and Governance of Risk in Nigeria’s Cashless Ecosystem(Charles Sturt University (Faculty of Business, Justice, and Behavioral Sciences), 2023) Tade, O.; Adeniyi, O. A.This article provides insight into the prevalence of fraud in Nigeria’s financial cashless ecosystem and how trust is being built in the system to check the growing menace. It is motivated by two overarching questions: Does fear of fraud constitute an impediment to financial inclusion? How does the existence or otherwise of risk governance mechanisms mediate the nexus between electronic fraud and financial inclusion? Using qualitative methods to probe participants in southwestern Nigeria on these issues, the findings show how fear of fraud, indirect experiences of fraud, and fraud governance shape adoption and behaviour in the Nigerian banking system.Item An Econometric Analysis of Residential Fuel Choice in Nigeria: Application of Access Framework(Inderscience Publishers, 2023) Ogunro, T.; Alaba, O.; Adeniyi, O. A.Despite global calls for a transition to modern energy, Nigerian households continue to face obstacles in accessing clean cooking energy. This paper examines the barriers to household fuel choice in rural and urban areas of Ogun Sate, Nigeria, employing an access framework. Through a cross-sectional study involving 597 households, we examined the factors associated with the selection of household cooking fuel and the access challenges. The framework conceptualises fuel choice as a function of three key access dimensions: affordability, availability, and acceptability, using multinomial logit regression. The findings showed that firewood and kerosene remain Nigeria’s dominant household fuel sources. The results highlight that fuel choice is influenced not only by affordability factors but also by factors related to availability and acceptability. Consequently, the study recommends a comprehensive approach beyond affordability, to ensure modern energy sources are culturally acceptable while establishing secure supply chains towards a more environmentally sustainable energy future.Item Stock Market Responses to Contagious Disease: Evidence of COVID-19 in the Three Worst Hit African Economies(John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2023) Kumeka, T.; Adeniyi, O. A.This study analyses whether Coronavirus health shocks and government responses in terms of lockdown policy and stringency measures impact stock markets in Africa. We found that stock markets appeared to be more negatively responsive to growth in total number of COVID-19 reported cases than the growth in deaths in the case of Nigeria and South Africa. While for Egypt, the stock market reacted significantly negative to both COVID-19-related indicators. Our results further show that government stringency policy has significant negative effect on stock market returns in the case of Nigeria and South Africa, but positive in the case of Egypt.Item Tourism-Income Inequality Nexus in Africa: Evidence from SADC countries(Taylor & Francis (Routledge), 2023) Adeniyi, O. A.; Adekunle, W.; Afolabi, J.; Kumeka, T.The tourism sector is one of the fastest-growing services sub-sectors worldwide and promises to unlock job opportunities and improve social inclusion outcomes in developing countries. We focused on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, which houses developing countries with high income inequality and constitutes attractive tourist centres in sub-Saharan Africa. We employed both the disaggregated and composite indicators of tourism development to investigate the tourism-income inequality nexus in the SADC region from 2010 to 2019. Utilizing the panel quantile regression approach, our overall results suggest that tourism development is inequality-worsening, and this is robust to both the composite tourism index and the individual tourism indicators (except in a few instances). While we established that net FDI inflows improve the inequality outcomes in the region, less corruption worsens inequality (except in a few cases). Accordingly, we offer relevant policy options for the governments of the SADC region.Item Public Debt, Tax and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries(Springer Nature, 2023) Adedeji, A. A.; Oyinlola, M. A.; Adeniyi, O. A.This study examines the effect of public debt on the relationship between tax and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries. Grounded in the extended endogenous growth model, it employs a dynamic fixed-effects model to explore both linear and nonlinear relationships. For the full sample, the linear analysis demonstrates that tax measures contribute positively to economic growth regardless of public debt inclusion. Intriguingly, while public debt on its own has a detrimental effect on growth, its interaction with total taxes exhibits a positive influence. Conversely, the nonlinear approach reveals a negative association between public debt and growth. Moreover, the interaction term indicates that public debt weakly supports the impact of indirect taxes on economic growth while undermining the effectiveness of taxes on goods and services. However, the interactions between public debt and other tax measures are not statistically significant. When considering various country classifications based on income level, fragility, and resource endowment under the linear approach, the study uncovers that several tax measures have a positive and statistically significant direct impact on growth. Furthermore, in low-income countries, public debt has a weaker effect on economic growth compared to that in middle-income countries. Public debt tends to reduce the effectiveness of direct taxes and taxes on income, profits, and capital gains in low-income countries. Conversely, public debt enhances only the effectiveness of indirect taxes in driving economic growth in middle-income countries. Under the nonlinear approach, mixed results are observed. Specifically, public debt predominantly undermines the effectiveness of most tax measures in middle-income countries. The findings across other country classifications also reveal diverse effects of public debt on the tax–growth relationship.Item Dependence Between Foreign Trade Performance and Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel ARDL Approach(Croatian Statistical Association (CSA), 2023) Oyinlola, M.A.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.The purpose of this study is to analyse the influence of exchange rate shocks on foreign trade (exports and imports) of fifteen economies within the ECOWAS sub region. To accomplish the goal of this paper, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure was employed to investigate the impact volatility in the exchange rate market has on foreign trade in both long- and short-term with data between 1980 and 2020. To compute volatility, it relied on the GARCH (1, 1) model which predicted the conditional variances as proxy for volatility. Our empirical results are distinguished into export model and import model, and reveal that volatility in exchange rate influence foreign trade performance (exports and imports) negatively in the short run, though statistically insignificant. The impact however becomes positive in the long run, and statistically significant for the two models. These results signpost that while the volatilities in foreign exchange market appear to deteriorate the international trade of these economies in the short-term, it substantially and significantly causes its improvement in the long-term. Hence, our results validate the J curve effect in the case of these ECOWAS economies. Policy implication from the findings suggests that to develop a robust international trade and ultimate economic growth, it is recommended that policymakers of these economies maintain a short-term stability in their foreign currency markets by way of adopting some intervention measures.Item Impact of Tourism Development on Inclusive Growth: A Panel Autoregression Analysis for African Economies(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2023) Adeniyi, O. A.; Kumeka, T.; Orekoya, S. O.; Adekunle, W.The persistent debate among policy makers and academics around combating the high rates of poverty and income inequality can be further illuminated by understanding how tourism con tributes to inclusive growth, especially in developing economies. Tourism sector can be regarded as one of the key contributors to inclusive growth and where it has the capacity to generate prospects for productive employment. The goal of this article is thus to investigate the link between inclusive growth and tourism in the African context. To do this, we utilized a recent panel vector autoregression (pVAR) and data for 45 African countries spanning the period 1995 to 2019. Thus, by the error variance decomposition and impulse response functions, our results showed a weak positive effect of international tourism arrivals and the composite tourism indicator on inclusive growth, while tourism receipts and tourism expenditure insignificantly decreases inclusive growth in the sampled African economies. Our result is further supported by the panel system generalized method of moments (GMM). We provide some policy implications from our findings.Item Effect of Fragility on Growth and Poverty in Nigeria: A Disaggregate State-Level Analysis(Western Illinois University and Tennessee State University College of Business, 2023) Adedeji, A.; Adeniyi, O. A.Why some nations are wealthier than others are one of the most contentious and enigmatic questions in international development economics. This has necessitated plausible explanations for the reasons behind Africa's poor development record over the past 50 years. Among other factors, fragility arising from different conflicts in African countries has been ranked as a key factor that undermines the development of the continent. Nigeria found itself in this set due to growing conflicts in different parts of the country. Consequently, fragility worsened the country's development due to the huge associated economic and social costs. More so, conflict-affected countries are characterized by the worst socio-economic outcomes. Hence, existing studies have been preoccupied with the understanding of the relationship between fragility and economic growth as well as fragility and poverty. To provide evidence in the context of Nigeria, this paper, therefore, empirically investigated the fragility-growth nexus, as well as the fragility-poverty nexus, in a sample of 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in Nigeria. We further considered the macroeconomic and socio- political relationships in fragile and non-fragile states of Nigeria. Using data covering the period between 2011 and 2015, both the static approach (Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effect, and Random Effect) and the dynamic approach (Difference and System Generalized Method of Moments) were explored to provide answers to some key questions in the study. The results showed that the neoclassical and socio-political approaches complement each other. Specifically, fragility significantly weakened economic growth and further worsened poverty levels among the states. This suggests that conflict-related fragility creates an unstable environment that discourages economic activities and aggravates hunger among the population. More so, the results indicated that only debt enhances economic growth while income reduces poverty in both fragile and non-fragile states. Hence, conflict resolution is crucial to addressing conflicts in different parts of the country. Also, the country needs to explore various strategies (security infrastructure, and human capital) to overcome fragility, enhance economic growth, and combat poverty.