FACULTY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

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    Hydrological responses to climate and land use changes: the paradox of regional and local climate effect in the Pra River Basin of Ghana
    (Elsevier Ltd., 2020) Bessah, E.; Raji, A. O.; Taiwo, O. J.; Agodzo, S. K.; Ololade, O. O.; Strapasson, A.
    Study Region: Pra River Basin, Ghana. Study Focus: The study modelled the changes in water yield using regional, sub-regional and local climate conditions from modelling outputs at spatial resolutions of 44 km, 12 km and 0.002 km respectively to drive the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model at three time periods of land use land cover (LULC). Changes in historical water yield (simulated for 1986, 2002 & 2018 LULC using the mean climatic parameters from 1981-2010) and future scenario (simulated for 2018 LULC using the mean climatic parameters from 2020-2049) for annual, seasonal and monthly periods were assessed. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The results show that future annual water yield could change by -46%, -48%, +44% and -35% under the regional, sub-regional, local and ensemble mean of the climate scenarios respectively. Seasonal water yield from the ensemble mean of the future climate scenario was projected to decrease between 2-16 mm, with a mean decrease of 33.39% during the December–February season. There was no directional effect of spatial resolution on water yield. The future period could be impacted by both drought and flood. We recommend that re/afforestation should be encouraged to improve infiltration and reduce deforestation which was 2.27% per annum in the assessed period to prevent flood causing runoffs, while irrigation technology will help to improve resilience to drought.
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    Variable resolution modeling of near future mean temperature changes in the dry sub-humid region of Ghana
    (Springer, 2018-05) Bessah, E.; Raji, A. O.; Taiwo, O. J.; Agodzo, S. K.; Ololade, O. O.
    The study used two models from Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA4) and two from Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) plus the Statistical Downscaling Model—Decision Centric (SDSM-DC) at 44 km, 12 km and 2 m resolution respectively to project the impact of climate change on mean temperature in the Pra River Basin for the period 2020–2049. Results showed that the minimum temperature increased (+ 1.47 °C) faster than the increase (+ 1.11 °C) in maximum temperature for observed period 1981–2010. An evaluation of the performance of the models with time-series based metrics showed that SDSM-DC and RCA4 are better for projecting mean temperature in the study area compared to WRF despite its resolution. Analysis of variance (p < 0.05) indicated significant difference between the projected mean temperature of the five models but there was no significant difference between SDSM-DC and RCA4 models. Correlation between models was highest at R = 0.727 between SDSM-DC and RCA4. The years 2041, 2042 and 2047 were projected as hottest by minimum two different models. The mean temperature change was projected at + 1.36, + 1.42 and + 1.12 °C by SDSM-DC, RCA4 and WRF respectively. The ensemble of projection depicted same trend of February—April as the high mean temperature and July—September as the lowest as was for the observed period. However, January is projected to have the highest change in mean temperature of + 1.51 °C. The maximum temperature for observed period was found to be the mean temperature in the period 2020–2049. Future study will focus on the impact of projected temperature change on ecosystem services delivery in the region.