FACULTY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
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Item Remittances and Output Growth Volatility in Developing Countries: Does Financial Development Dampen or Magnify the Effects.(Springer-Verlag GmbH, 2019) Adeniyi, O. A.; Ajide, K.; Raheem, I. D.The paper empirically investigated the relationship between remittance flows and output growth volatility for an extensive sample predominated by emerging and developing countries. Following this broad treatment, it goes further to estimate the extent to which the degree of financial development (FD) impacts on the remittances– growth volatility nexus. This novelty distinguishes the work from previous studies. Using the system-generalized method of moments estimator, which corrects for endogenity and omitted variable concerns, on data spanning the period 1996–2012 for a total of 71 countries some interesting findings ensued. One, both remittances and FD had growth volatility dampening effects. Two, the interaction between proxies for FD and remittances produced mixed results. Three, when volatility of FD is accounted for, the interactive term had mixed results. For instance, banking sector credit produces positive and insignificant coefficients, while private sector produced significant and negative coefficients. Summarily putting these results in other words, the countercyclicality of remittances was established, while the complementary dampening effect of financial development is dependent upon its measure. On the basis of the foregoing, a few related policy lessons are documented to conclude the paper.Item Energy Consumption and Sectoral Trade in Selected West African Economies(Inderscience Publishers, 2019) Adeniyi, O. A.; Adewuyi, A. O.This paper examines the impact of disaggregate energy consumption on sectoral trade in selected West African countries from 1971 to 2015. Panel data analysis indicates that the effect of fossil fuel consumption on agricultural, manufactured and services exports is negative, while that of fuel export is positive. However, electricity has positive effect on the exports of three sectors, while its impact on fuel export is insignificant. Further, fossil fuel generates negative impact on manufactured and services imports, but positive and insignificant effect on agricultural and fuel exports respectively. The effect of electricity on sectoral imports is positive except for agricultural products where it is insignificant. The country level analysis reveals diverse effects of fossil fuel and electricity consumption across sectoral trade structure and the selected West African countries. The foregoing findings inform the articulation of some policy implications including the following. Energy conservation policy is required to encourage production and exporting of commodities with energy saving techniques so as to save costs, conserve non-renewable energy, and foster export diversification in the selected countries. Liberal import policy should be accompanied with energy conservation policy especially where inefficiency of non-renewable energy use is prevalent.Item Policy Trilemma and Interest Rate Behaviour in Nigeria(Statistics Department, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), 2018) Ajogebeje, K.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Egwaikhide, F. O.Policy makers face trade-off in dealing with exchange rate management, mo- netary independence and concerns about capital mobility simultaneously. This study empirically examines the effects of Nigeria's trilemma policy path on interest rate using data spanning from 1997:Q1 to 2017:Q3. It equally in- corporates the role of external reserves in buffering these effects. Stationar- ity of the series were ascertained with Zivot-Andrew (ZA) structural break unit roots test technique, while the bounds test cointegration approach was used to confirm the cointegrating properties of the variables. We found that capital mobility has significant effect on interest rate in the long run base- line model and could also be successfully buffered with external reserves to reduce interest rate. Additionally, our results show that although exchange rate stability and monetary independence do not independently affect inter- est rate, but their interaction with external reserves does. This implies that external reserve serves as an effective buffer if appropriately employed by the monetary authorities. The trilemma policy can be used to optimally reduce interest rate. Also, external reserves could serve as a tool for economic sta- bilization with appropriate combination with other relevant policy variables.Item Empirical Analysis of the Tourism-Terrorism Nexus: The Nigerian Experience(Interdepartmental Program of Postgraduate Studies, 2017) Ajogbeje, K.; Folarin, O.; Oladipupo, E.; Adeniyi, O. A.This paper examined the relationship among tourism, terrorism and broad economic aggregates. We made use of the impulse response and variance decomposition of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) on the Nigerian economy from 1995Q1 to 2012Q4. Besides the appropriate unit root and cointegration properties of the variables, the result revealed, that terrorism had negative effects on other variables of the study, especially tourism. Also, shocks in other variables are majorly caused by terrorism. The study also revealed that tourism responds positively to FDI, but its response to GDP and FDI are mixed overtime. Therefore, growth-promoting and other complimentary policies that will engender aggregate welfare improvement need to be pursued to ensure that the tourism sector sidestep the adverse consequences of terrorism.Item Spatial Econometric Analysis of Inbound Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria: A Geographically Weighted Regress Approach(Nigerian Economic Society, 2017) Osayomi, T.; Adeniyi, O. A.This paper empirically analysed the spatial distribution and identified key determinants of foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Nigeria using data on the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Unlike extant studies on FDI, the approach pursued here is not only disaggregated but also spatial to better reflect observed state-level disparities often masked by conventional aggregate-level analyses. Data from the Nigerian Capital Importation Report (2014) and other official sources were used. The spatial econometric analysis of the data was conducted using ordinary least squares (OLS) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR). Several interesting results ensued, chief among which are: marked variations in the geographical distribution of FDI in Nigeria with the largest volume in Lagos; access to transport infrastructure (in terms of access to airports and seaports) and their corresponding distances also significantly influenced FDI flows to states; and Lagos State appeared to be the only FDI cluster albeit surrounded surprisingly by relatively FDI poor states. In policy terms, therefore, concerted efforts have to be made by government to provide the necessary infrastructure in a more spatially balanced manner. This will make other states, apart from Lagos, more attractive for foreign investment and ultimately result in ameliorating the tensions that typically arise from marked regional discrepancies in access to economic opportunitiesItem Does Tourism Development Contribute to Human Development in Africa?(Institute for Tourism (Zagreb, Croatia), 2017) Folarin, O.; Oladipupo, E.; Ajogbeje, K.; Adeniyi, O. A.The literature has been awash with alternative explanations for structural and economic transformation in more recent years. Growth drivers are myriad in empirical depictions and enquiries into deeper causal relationships have preoccupied development discourse. Particularly, the contributory role of tourism development in job creation, thereby increasing the standard of living, national output, foreign exchange earnings and revenue to the government through taxation have been brought into sharper view by extant studies. To this end, the developmental gains arising from expansion of activities in the tourism industry has equally blossomed. This is particularly the case in Africa owing on one hand to the high influx of tourists into the continent as well as the relative size of tourism receipts to gross domestic product (GDP) for key continental destinations on the other hand. Hence, the central question is how has tourism development influenced overall economic development in the African context? To pursue this train of inquisition, this study examined the effect of tourism development on human capital development in Africa. Precisely, the study uncovered the role of tourism in influencing human capital development using data on a panel of twenty-five (25) African countries covering the period from 1998 to 2014. System General Moment Method (GMM) estimation techniques was deployed in the study in a requisite bid to account for endogeneity and unlike previous work human capital is decomposed into education and health to facilitate clearer understanding on the specificity of the impacts of tourism development in the economy. The study findings showed that tourism development vis-à-vis tourist arrival and tourism receipt had positive and significant effect on human capital development in Africa. This result is found to be robust to the choice of human capital indicator albeit with certain variations contingent on model specification. Thus, appropriate policies that will make the continent's tourist sites attractive to tourists need to be implemented.Item The Effect of Terrorism on Tourism Development in Nigeria: A Note(Sage Publication, 2017) Ajogbeje, K.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Folarin, O.This article investigated the tourism–terrorism nexus in Nigeria using quarterly time series data within a vector autoregression analytical framework. Unlike extant studies, we gauge the influence of terrorism shocks on the tourism sector specifically on the one hand and broadly the response of some key macroeconomic variables on the other hand. Several interesting results ensued. To sum up these findings, we found a negative response of tourism revenues to terrorist incidents over the long haul as well as adverse effects on other key macroeconomic variables. Therefore, government policies to revamp the ailing economy should be complemented with well-tailored counterterrorism approaches for effectiveness.Item Remittance, Institutions and Investment Volatility Interactions: An Intercontinental Analysis(Wiley Blackwell, 2017) Ajide, K.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Raheem, I. D.Generating massive investment for growth and development has been one of the main policy goals of most economies around the globe. Countries, most especially developing ones, are highly susceptible to investment volatility owing largely to the fragile nature of their economies as well as weaknesses in terms of dysfunctional institutions. Therefore, sound economic management suggests the need to better understand possible sources for mitigating the adverse effects of investment volatility. Remittances have been identified as important capital flows which do a good job of dousing macroeconomic volatilities. It is on this basis that the study sought to uncover the causal relationship between remittances and investment volatility via the intermediating role of institutions. Using a panel of 70 countries and the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, three insightful outcomes come to the fore. First, remittances played countercyclical roles across the estimated regressions. Second, institutional quality had no significant role in mitigating investment volatility and lastly, the interactive terms of both remittances and institutions significantly mitigated the negative impacts of investment volatility with the exception of the political component of the institutional architecture. Policy suggestions are drawn based on our results.Item The Effect of Terrorism on Tourism Development in Nigeria: A Note(Sage Publication, 2017) Ajogbeje, K.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Folarin, O.This article investigated the tourism–terrorism nexus in Nigeria using quarterly time series data within a vector autoregression analytical framework. Unlike extant studies, we gauge the influence of terrorism shocks on the tourism sector specifically on the one hand and broadly the response of some key macroeconomic variables on the other hand. Several interesting results ensued. To sum up these findings, we found a negative response of tourism revenues to terrorist incidents over the long haul as well as adverse effects on other key macroeconomic variables. Therefore, government policies to revamp the ailing economy should be complemented with well-tailored counterterrorism approaches for effectiveness.Item Remittance, Institutions and Investment Volatility Interactions: An Intercontinental Analysis(Wiley Blackwell, 2017) Ajide, K.; Adeniyi, O. A.; Raheem, I. D.Generating massive investment for growth and development has been one of the main policy goals of most economies around the globe. Countries, most especially developing ones, are highly susceptible to investment volatility owing largely to the fragile nature of their economies as well as weaknesses in terms of dysfunctional institutions. Therefore, sound economic management suggests the need to better understand possible sources for mitigating the adverse effects of investment volatility. Remittances have been identified as important capital flows which do a good job of dousing macroeconomic volatilities. It is on this basis that the study sought to uncover the causal relationship between remittances and investment volatility via the intermediating role of institutions. Using a panel of 70 countries and the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, three insightful outcomes come to the fore. First, remittances played countercyclical roles across the estimated regressions. Second, institutional quality had no significant role in mitigating investment volatility and lastly, the interactive terms of both remittances and institutions significantly mitigated the negative impacts of investment volatility with the exception of the political component of the institutional architecture. Policy suggestions are drawn based on our results.