FACULTY OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
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Item Environmental factors and population at risk of malaria in Nkomazi municipality, South Africa(2016-05) Adeola, A. M.; Botai, O. J.; Olwoch, J. M.; Rautenbach, C. J. de W.; Adisa, O. M.; Taiwo, O. J.; Kalumba, A. M.Objective: Nkomazi local municipality of South Africa is a high-risk malaria region with an incidence rate of about 500 cases per 100 000. We examined the influence of environmental factors on population (age group) at risk of malaria. Methods: R software was used to statistically analyse data. Using remote sensing technology, a Landsat 8 image of 4th October 2015 was classified using object-based classification and a 5-m resolution. Spot height data were used to generate a digital elevation model of the area. Results: A total of 60 718 malaria cases were notified across 48 health facilities in Nkomazi municipality between January 1997 and August 2015. Malaria incidence was highly associated with irrigated land (P = 0.001), water body (P = 0.011) and altitude ≤400 m (P = 0.001). The multivariate model showed that with 10% increase in the extent of irrigated areas, malaria risk increased by almost 39% in the entire study area and by almost 44% in the 2-km buffer zone of selected villages. Malaria incidence is more pronounced in the economically active population aged 15–64 and in males. Both incidence and case fatality rate drastically declined over the study period. Conclusion: A predictive model based on environmental factors would be useful in the effort towards malaria elimination by fostering appropriate targeting of control measures and allocating of resources.Item Effects of political dispensations on the pattern of urban expansion in the Osogbo metropolis, Osun State, Nigeria(2014-10) Taiwo, O. J.; Abutaleb, K. A.; Ngie, A.; Ahmed, F.Most studies on urban growth have focused on measuring the extent and rate of urban growth, while some focused on the understanding of factors that initiate and sustain city growth at local and global scales. Only anecdotal studies exist on the effects of different political regimes on urban growth. Both military and democratic governments enacted and implemented various urban and related policies that might have impacted the urban expansion. This is because a regime’s ideology (be it civilian or military) could be a crucial growth-determining factor. This study compares urban growth in Osogbo, Nigeria, during military and civilian regimes, using eight landscape metrics. Landsat images of the Osogbo metropolis for the years 1986, 1991, 1996, 1999, 2003, 2010 and 2014 were selected, based on the progression of political regimes in Nigeria. Where necessary, the images were gap-filed and co-registered to a common datum. Supervised classification was used in identifying built-up areas over-time, while change vector analysis was used in exploring growth pattern between the civilian and the military regimes. Landscape metrics were used to assess the process and impacts of urban expansion, while analysis of variance was used to assess variations in growth between the two dispensations. There has been considerable growth in Osogbo metropolis since its creation in 1991, and significant differences exist in urban growth rates between military and civilian regimes (F=7.920, P<0.05). However, the effect of urban growth on distance to central business district, available open space, urban sprawl, and shape of built-up areas, are not significantly different between the military and the civilian regimes. Urban expansion occurred primarily through expansion of existing urban areas rather than spontaneous and detached development. Therefore, one of the most difficult conclusions from this study is that urban benefits derived through city growth do not necessarily have anything to do with the type of city administrations in place.